Ukrainian Government is said to have air-dropped leaflets: “leave or die.”
Introductory note by Eric Zuesse: Below is from a recent day’s report by the Belarusian (or “Byelorussian”) management-consulting firm Geopolitics, a site which often posts the most-penetrating daily reports and analyses of the Ukrainian civil war, with a dozen or more articles written by various Belarusian academics. One of these news reports, shown below, is provocatively headlined “War will begin on Monday”; another is titled, “Kiev is preparing to capture Donetsk, and it will be the biggest defeat for #russia since 1991”; yet a third is “Donbass pending decisive assault”. So, some of these articles focus on the historical importance of the events.
Their site, geopolitics.by, should be frequently referenced and quoted by journalists, but (for some reason) it isn’t. Perhaps journalists aren’t encouraged to focus on what’s important, or historically significant.
I am posting here English-language auto-translations of those three plus of two more, all by google’s auto-translation system, from the original Russian. The remaining two are “Blitzkrieg for Novorossia,” and “Levada Center: Social protest in #ukraine catalyzes around the image of the enemy — Russia.”
I have tried to improve the auto-translations of these stories a bit, so as to make them more-readily understandable (since auto-translations tend to make for slow reading).
I shall start by showing the complete page’s table of contents, with titles for the more-than-two-dozen articles there, so that you’ll see, from that list of titles, the diversity and importance of the topics. All of the articles are presented in full at the linked web-page.
The term “ATO” that’s employed by the Ukrainian Government and that’s seen in some of these articles, refers to the Ukrainian Government’s “Anti-Terrorist Operation” to kill everyone who lives in the two adjoining areas of Ukraine that had voted 90% or more for the man whom Obama’s Ukrainian coup overthrew on 22 February of this year, and who was replaced by this new Government, whose “ATO” aims to get rid of those voters, so as to consolidate their regime by democratic elections in which the survivors will consist predominantly of their supporters. Those two regions are called “Donbass,” and are comprised of “LC” or the Lugansk area, or Luhansk; and of “DPR” or else “DNI” or Donetsk area, or Donetsk city and its environs.
On October 24th, an American engineer who works in Donbass, and who has reported extensively on this war, George Eliason, sent this email to me and a number of his other journalist friends:
The war is going to be in high gear in a few days here. I spent a few days embedded with the Novo Russia military and met with most of the leaders here. Their intel is that Poroshenko is going to attack hard. Ukraine has massed tanks along the south border and at Debalsova and outside Lugansk.
Poland gave Ukraine aircraft to bomb the cities and leaflets are being dropped in Ukrainian controlled cities that read: leave or die.
Things are going to happen quickly here soon – possibly over the weekend.
Please forward this to everyone writing on this. From the top down they are worried poroshenko is going to light the whole region on fire.
Here is the link to the page:
Ukraine. Confrontation: digest (as of 23/10/2014)
Table of Contents:
- For the Crimea, for gas and for the Donbass
- Lustration for the godfather and matchmaker
- In war, there are no angels
- Ukraine: 10 years of happiness to be seen
- A.Vasserman: “In the European trough Ukraine would have been just as food”
- In the armistice put “point”?
- Poroshenko discussed with Putin gas negotiations and complete cease-fire in the Donbass
- Blitzkrieg for Novorossia
- Viktor Yanukovych will be tried in absentia
- Is it possible to get the regions of Galicia in the EU without the rest of Europe: the views of politicians
- Administration Poroshenko: Ukraine ready for “full-scale” war, but does not want it
- Poroshenko sacked his adviser on constitutional reform
- Administration Poroshenko: Elections in the DNI and LC – a “road to nowhere” that complicates the situation
- Moskal: Holding elections in some places Lugansk region is dangerous to life
- For political reasons
- Poroshenko signed a law court in absentia for crimes against the national security of the individual
- UN alarmed by reports of the use of prohibited weapons in the Donbass
- Unnatural Selection
- Donbass pending decisive assault
- Fighting reached a “point”
- Head of Luhansk region: power 129 settlements “fled the militia”
- The United States did not confirm the use of Ukrainian military cluster bombs
- Levada Center: Social protest in Ukraine catalyzes around the image of the enemy – Russia
- Media: Ukraine demanded Russia to ban use of the communication network in the Crimea
- War will begin on Monday
- Kiev Donetsk is preparing to capture, and it will be the biggest defeat for Russia since 1991
- Poroshenko voter lists have more than 10 thousand combatants
- Tymoshenko urged to call a referendum on Ukraine’s accession to NATO
- “To the man management we come gradually”
- Purgin of a possible attack on the APU Donetsk: The situation is really “escalated to the limit”
- OSCE: a truce in Ukraine violated mainly security forces
- Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine has received 260 reports of violations of the rights of voters
- Belarusian MPs will observe the elections to the parliament
- Shooters predicted attack Ukrainian troops in Donetsk and Makeyevka
Blitzkrieg for Novorossia
War Party in Kiev hopes to capture Donetsk 2-3 days
21 October 2014 20:02, Alex Verhoyantsev
According to an insider information agency, published Oct. 21, Ukrainian generals have plans for a sudden powerful blow to Donetsk from three sides.
The start of another “blitzkrieg” is planned immediately after the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine VIII convocation that occur on October 26th.
Already formed is a three-armored fist aimed at Donetsk. Two of them are Avdiyivka-Sands, and Debalcevo. The impact will be inflicted only in Donetsk. The purpose of Kiev is to capture a significant portion of Donetsk with a swift blow coming in from three directions. This way, Russia will not have time to respond and help New Russia. Such impact will dissipate a lot of Novorossia’s armor and eliminate disparate militias within 2-3 days.
According to analyst Dmitry Dzygovbrodskogo, without the existence of Donetsk, Novorossia would be impossible.
Later, on October 21 in the network there was a message from the political scientist Anatoly Nesmiyan known as El Murid. He writes:
“A column of the Armed Forces of Ukraine moved through the village of Marinka Kurakhovo toward the direction of Donetsk, the Capital of the Donetsk People’s Republic. There are an endless stream of tanks, moving under conditions of minimal lighting, so as to make difficult determining the composition of the column. It is known, however, that a part of the convoy consists of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and trucks with infantry and ammunition.”
According to him, the renewed attack by security forces of Kiev who are surrounded at Donetsk airport is just a red herring to distract militias — and the most combat-ready units. Toward the same goal is that Government’s stuffing Ukrainian media with misinformation saying that the Prime Minister of the Donetsk Novorossian Republic Alexander Zaharchenko is violating the ceasefire.
More recently, experts said that the Ukrainian army is on the verge of defeat. The fact is that the combat effectiveness and morale in it are extremely low.
And now again we hear that an offensive is being prepared for a three-day blitzkrieg that might call into question the very existence of New Russia. How likely is such a scenario?
– Such a scenario is not excluded. The editor in chief of “National Defense” Igor Korochenko says that the War Party in Kiev has a strong position. He says that the objective will be to distract Ukrianians from the pressing problems associated with the winter period, if the Kiev government can suddenly launch an attack and crush Novorossia by their armored columns.
“SP”: – After the August offensive our militias said that technically speaking, the Ukrainian army had suffered heavy losses
This loss is now recharged. Supplies have gone to Ukraine from those countries that had been in the Soviet bloc, where there still remained the old Soviet equipment. Besides, Kiev urgently refilled a number of warehouses with heavy weapons.
Defeated army units are now being re-formed. So in general, Ukraine retains certain military capabilities.
“SP”: – Is the plan for taking only 2-3 days to enter Donetsk and hold a large part of it realistic?
– I do not think so. Blitzkrieg is hardly possible. The level of militants’ organization compared with the beginning of the war has increased significantly. Commanders of Novorossia units are in overall control of the situation.
Meanwhile, a new wave of offensive Ukrainian law enforcers will surely lead to new large losses among the civilian population. Kiev did not bother to meet the requirements of the Geneva Conventions. They behave as invaders in the Donbass. They consider the local population as a hostile ethnic group itself.
“SP”: – How do you assess the military potential of the militia of New Russia? Whether it is capable not only to repel the assault, but also to counter-attack to make whole at least the territory of the former Donetsk and Lugansk regions?
– The Army of New Russia is capable of holding those areas that it now controls. But to say that in the current state it could successfully attack on Kiev — that’s naive. They’d need to do a lot more to have a real Novorossia army on a professional basis. Without this, co-existence with Ukraine will be impossible. The future will show what happens next.
– It is clear that at the time of the armistice, both sides wanted to continue the war, says the head of the analytical department of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Hramchihin. The Minsk agreements were signed under external pressure from Russia and Europe. [Obama, the U.S., wasn’t even mentioned in this context.] At the same time, both sides believe that victory was stolen from them, and want to continue the war.
Thus, except for Blitzkrieg, Ukraine now cannot arrange anything. If you get involved in protracted battles, on the eve of the winter, it may be a very sad end in Kiev for the current regime.
“SP”: – And yet you have the Ukrainian military forces trying to make blitzkrieg after summer defeats?
– Yes. Ukraine has lost only a few percent of its military equipment, which is surprising. Despite the fact that it is possible to supply military equipment to Ukraine from Eastern Europe. Direct evidence of this resupply is lacking, but there are indirect indications of it.
All summer, the Ukrainian army stupidly pressed mass. Given the limitations of militia forces for such a war in Kiev and more resources for the year will suffice. Superiority in manpower and technology is still behind Kiev.
“SP”: – If the Ukrainian offensive begins, how successfully will it develop?
– This will largely depend on Russia. Our government does not want this war resumed with renewed vigor. And it doesn’t want to get involved in the fighting. But for Russia to allow defeat of the militias has also become impossible.
In July and August it is Russia that prevented the final defeat of the militias. They are not enough people who can master military equipment. Not to mention the fact that their formation is still a lot of mess. However, in the Ukrainian army, it’s even more the case.
“SP”: – Will the chances Novorossia survive if Donetsk is captured?
– Reduction of the territory for militias would in any case be disastrous for them. They control the minimum of territory that they need. If you pull back for a few more tens of kilometers, just nowhere remains to expand the offensive. Yes, and economic potential of the Donetsk and Lugansk Republics in this case would be completely undermined.
Director, Center for Strategic Situation, Ivan Konovalov, believes that successful Blitzkrieg against New Russia is no longer possible.
– Ukrainian army was unable to cope with a much weaker militias.
The report of the agency “New Russia” is not very clear on what the “three armored fist” is: a 3 armored division? But now there is no way for Ukraine to create a full-fledged three armored divisions. And it is not possible even in military technology, and trained crews. Who will manage the tanks? Or call on foreign mercenaries? I doubt it. It’s too expensive. And the number of mercenaries in the world is limited.
However, even when creating a big advantage in manpower and equipment, to take Donetsk, or rather a huge part of Donetsk, in just a few days is not possible. It is very difficult for the military offensive in such a territory. There are woods, hills, piles, very dense buildings, a lot of tracks.
We remember two months ago Ukrainian troops were sent into battle all combat-ready, but were not able to take Donetsk. How do they succeed now? The more so because the number of militia volunteers is constantly growing. They are now tens of thousands. And the light weapons they have are decent. And armor is enough. I witnessed how they are at one of the factories of Donetsk repairing armored [enemy] vehicles that were brought from the battlefield.
“SP”: – Based on the information agency “New Russia”, Kiev bet on surprise. Militia, according to the author, “never under any circumstances will we bombard residential areas of Donetsk … Thus our fighters will be limited to a set of tools for the destruction of Ukrainian punitive forces if they gain a foothold in the residential areas of Donetsk” …
– The position of the militia is clear – to try as much as possible to avoid the shelling of settlements, even if there are Ukrainian troops.
However, to really keep residential areas, you need a well-trained infantry. And here in Kiev there is none. The armored column breakthrough tactics were employed by the Ukrainian army to begin with. And what did it ultimately lead to? To infinity of “fired boilers.” If the next tank column tries to break through to the center of Donetsk without normal infantry support, it will just get burned even without the use of heavy weapons and “Grad” from the defenders.
Perhaps Ukrainian military expects to be suddenly in Donetsk and encourage volunteers to ensure that they left the city, not wanting to arrange it into a slaughterhouse. But I think the militia today calculate a variety of scenarios. And in one fell swoop, even armored, they do not hesitate.
In any case, confirmed evidence that there have been created powerful armored groups to strike in Donetsk is unavailable. For such information nowadays to remain completely hidden is impossible, because of the “Free Press.” It doesn’t exist.
Donbass pending decisive assault
Parliamentary elections and the authorities LC and DNR will lead to the resumption of large-scale battles
22.10.2014 00:01, Tatiana Ivzhenko
In Kiev, I predict worsening of the situation in the Donets Basin in the coming days. Concerns are related to both conduct October 26 elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, and with the planned elections in a week of self-proclaimed leadership of the LC and the DNI. Political struggle develops into armed clashes.
On Monday afternoon, news agencies reported a powerful explosion in Donetsk. According to witnesses, the blast wave swept across the city, over the epicenter – in the area of warehouses for the Donetsk state factory of chemical products – rose “mushroom.” It is approximately 100 km from the border with Russia.
As of yesterday they did not know precisely what the substance was that exploded and which side struck.
Unveiled a different version: rocket attack on the territory of chemical enterprises, the explosion of stockpiled munitions factory and as a result of the detonation of RDX, an intentional undermining of warehouses.
On Monday evening, the Russian media issued a statement of the Prime Minister of breakaway DNR Alexnder Zaharchenko, who allegedly accused the Ukrainian troops’ firing of rockets at Donetsk “and allegedly declared the termination of the armistice. Yesterday morning Zaharchenko’s commentary in Tass news agency denied the report, saying that the journalists took the news from Twitter. “I did not say that. I understand that someone on my behalf sent the page in social networks and on my behalf, and makes statements that do not have to do with me, “- he explained.
The Ukrainian side, in turn, made an official statement that the missile strikes or shelling of Donetsk did not come from them. Press center of the antiterrorist operation reported that the Ukrainian military respond to attacks by armed groups in the breakaway republics, but “beat off the attack with mortars.” And do not shoot on Human Settlements. No “Point-In,” “Grad,” “Twister,” “Hurricane”: “ATO do not use force,” – said the press center. It specified that the video, “which is used as proof that the Ukrainian military launched a missile attack (on the chemical plant. -“NG”), appeared on the Internet only four months ago.”
In Kiev yesterday sounded the assumption what the militia could do – intentionally or accidentally – to blow up the warehouses with their ammunition. Appointed last week, Minister of Defense of Ukraine Stepan Poltorak on the television talk show suggested that the explosion was arranged specifically to accuse the Ukrainian military. “This is yet another provocation by terrorists,” – he said. A speaker of the Council of National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine Andriy Lysenko explained the situation as follows: “After the capture of militants Donetsk state plant, warehouses which store large amounts of chemicals, the terrorists tried to establish the production of explosives there.”
At this time in facebook, it was reported that the attack on a chemical plant are partisans. It unveiled a Johan Karlsen, who presents himself as the leader is still not known movement “AntiDNRovskoe resistance.” He wrote: “Declare: Donetsk exploded not” Tochka-U “! This undermining mined terrorist bases and warehouses. Now we’re going to do it regularly until you leave from Donetsk voluntarily, or you will have to take out “force.” …
Director of the Center for Applied Political Studies “Penta” Volodymyr Fesenko suggests that in the coming days, the situation will worsen sharply, although none of the parties requests the termination of the ceasefire. He said, “NG,” that there are many forces that try to disrupt the elections – in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, and the authorities of the unrecognized republics. “It is possible that there will be attempts to expand the territory of the LC and the DNI to the borders of Luhansk and Donetsk regions. The leaders of the breakaway republics should be prepared for attacks on Debalcevo, Mariupol, and, it is possible to Raisin Kharkiv region.” Fesenko said that after a period of the next exacerbation followed by new peace talks, there will be temporary settlement and conditional silent mode. “But the conflict is not frozen by politicians, and in the winter, which is forecast to be expected severe, the intensity of military operations will decrease, but the zone of instability in the Donbass will continue for months, if not years.”
Political analyst Konstantin Bondarenko confirmed that the truce will be forced – due to weather conditions – and will continue to heat. But the election may adversely affect the development of the situation in the near future: “The Ukrainian government does not recognize elections in the LC and the DNI. And those, in turn, said that the Donbass would not choose deputies to the supreme legislative body of Ukraine, therefore, for them to Ukrainian law does not apply. Such casuistry.” “Nezavisimaya Gazeta”
Levada Center: Social protest in Ukraine catalyzes around the image of the enemy – Russia
The view that between Russia and Ukraine is a war divides 70% of Ukrainian citizens and 26% Russian, results of a parallel survey conducted in Russia and Ukraine together “Levada Center” and the Kiev International Institute of Sociology.
About Russia’s support for pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, respondents’ opinions diverged less: this according to 50% of Russians and 74% of Ukrainians. In this case, responding to a question about whether they blame for the bloodshed Russia, 63% of Ukrainians reply favorably, while 27% do not recognize her guilt. In Russia, the relationship is reversed: 75% believe that the responsibility for the victims of the brotherly people of their country can not be held, and only 17% are willing to accept.
Radically different visions of the future and the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, in Russia 40% of respondents were in favor of independence (against 25% in March), and in Ukraine 77% of respondents believe the Donbass should remain part of Ukraine.
According to the deputy director of “Levada-Center” Alexei Grazhdankina, acute feelings of Ukrainians about the alleged involvement of Russia in the conflict in the South-East of Kiev derive from an attempt to find some external force, which could explain the negative consequences of their own government’s policies.
The potential of social protest in Ukraine catalyzes around the image of the enemy in the face of Russia, emphasizes the sociologist, as issues related to the well-being of people, the economy, the prospects for how to spend the winter, are linked to the conflict. This view is supported by the fact that only 28% of Ukrainians believe that for the sake of peace in their country they need to accept any compromises. IA «Regnum»
War will begin on Monday
22 October 2014 12:13, Gevorg Mirzayan
List of parties who would go to the parliament, already roughly defined. The absolute leader in all polls is Block Poroshenko – for it are ready to vote a little less than 30%. But then the results of surveys differ. In general, it turns out that in addition to the parliament Poroshenko just passes the “People’s Front”, “Citizenship”, “Radical Party”, “Fatherland” and “Strong Ukraine”. Chance to overcome the entrance barrier is the Communists, nationalists of “Freedom” and some other parties.
This election authorities position almost as the most important in the history of Ukraine, and at the same time claim that Moscow is trying every way to thwart them. For example, the SBU said the exposure in Kiev, the whole of the Russian underground terrorist organization, which was to make a series of terrorist attacks on election day (the explosion of the aircraft at the airport, “Juliani” morning of October 26, the Central Election Commission building fire and the Cabinet on the night of 25th to 26th of October). In turn, Moscow these statements is not even denies – the last time these dubious charges from Kiev was so much that the Russian authorities have simply stopped paying attention to them. Instead, Russia is trying to focus on the possible outcome of the elections and their consequences.
For example, Russian officials have said that the results of the elections recognize, but no breakthrough solutions to the new composition of Parliament do not wait. “If the elections will lead to a stabilization of not only political, but also in the ruling circles, the government will create a predictable, which can be dealt with, will be able to lead to an increase in the degree of efficiency of the Ukrainian authorities – while they carry out their task,” – said the head of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the State Duma Alexei Pushkov, knowing full well that these items are implemented they are not likely.
On the one hand it may seem that the Kremlin’s skepticism was not warranted. Judging by the polls, the outspoken radicals of “Freedom” and “The Right Sector”, which was irritating the Russian public and positioned as the main radical forces of Ukraine, in the election, seems to fail. Seemingly confirmed by the statements of the political scientists and journalists who claimed that Ukraine extreme views in the Ukraine are not supported.However, in reality, there is probably another. Neither the “Freedom”, let alone “right sector” and could not become systemic and political forces to play by the rules. Their rate for ultra-did not work, not because the Ukraine in their ideology no storoonnikov, but just because one or another form of the elements of their political discourse used by other Ukrainian politicians and the media. Including parties and politicians from the ruling coalition – from Poroshenko to Yulia Tymoshenko, against which “Freedom” and “Right sector” look rather than patriots and amateurs populist.
That dominance in the political arena of Ukraine extreme settings can be an obstacle for the effective operation of the future composition of the Verkhovna Rada. In fact, before the deputies will be the most difficult task, perhaps the most difficult for all 20 years of the existence of an independent Ukraine. There is a civil war, the economy is teetering on the brink of default, the oligarchs concentrated in their powerful resources of power, relations with its eastern neighbor spoiled. These tasks can not be considered unenforceable, but their solution requires innovative solutions and sober, what’s even the revisionist approach. In particular, Kiev must stop and lustration campaign to deepen the split in society, to take a course on the restoration of relations with Moscow to abandon tough anti-Russian rhetoric. However, members of this step are unlikely, because otherwise not included in the Rada radicals parliamentarians call traitors and with the acquiescence of the public subjected to their “people’s lustration.”
The stability in the future government, too, can not speak. Yes, with the formation of the coalition problems likely will not. Popular Front for the same does not refuse to work with Peter Poroshenko and ready to enter into a coalition. “I am confident that we will have enough representatives of the democratic forces to form a majority without those who have worked with Yanukovych, without those who voted for the dictatorial laws on January 16,” – said one of the leaders of the NF, the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Oleksandr Turchynov. President generally plans to gather under his wing a constitutional majority. However, following the establishment of the coalition may have traditional aspects associated with the sharing of portfolios, the struggle for power and cash flows, questions about the still not completed postmaydannogo redistribution of property. Instability in the ruling elite will enhance the running of the country civil war and the issues connected with it. So, on the table the new composition of the Verkhovna Rada will form the final report formed the current composition of the special commission investigating the crash of the Ukrainian armed forces under Illovayskom. It is likely to be found guilty Poroshenko and his inner circle. It is possible that some MPs will try to use the findings of this report to the weakening of the position of the president.
In this situation, the president can consolidate public opinion at the expense of a new stage of TAU – and it is also very concerned about Moscow, which has only just managed to freeze going on Ukraine civil war. Analysts write that over the past week, the Ukrainian army concentrated at the front lines considerable force. However, it is clear that in the winter to keep them there can not be. Therefore, the president has just a few weeks to decide: either he throws those troops on the blitzkrieg, or takes them to the place of permanent or temporary dislocation in the winter quarters. Moscow regards as credible both versions of events, especially after Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko and failed to find a compromise in Milan, and the issue of gas supplies to Ukraine podvis due to the fact that Kiev for its purchase and payment accumulated the debt is simply no money. That is why, according to some reports, the Kremlin is ready for any development of the situation. And if Poroshenko really begin the offensive after the elections to the parliament, it is not excluded that the new year will be welcomed militia already in Slavic and Mariupol. expert.ru
Kiev is preparing to capture Donetsk, and [if successful] it will be the biggest defeat for Russia since 1991
Former Defense Minister DNR Igor Gunmen [Igor Strelkov, Igor Girkin] today, 22 October, made a statement on the current military situation in the Donbas, the correspondent of IA REGNUM.
“At the moment to me a continuous flow of information about preparing the coming offensive of armed forces of Ukraine and gangs of so-called” National Guard “to Donetsk. In recent days, the enemy sharply intensified activities of their intelligence groups, as well as artillery strikes against militias, residential areas and industrial enterprises. Massively used heavy multiple rocket launchers, heavy artillery and tactical missiles “Tochka-U”. Civilian victims during the so-called “truce” have been higher than those in the period of active hostilities months ago. Two forces of the enemy, having clearly offensive configuration, aimed at DNR capital from the north-west and south-west. Third, concentrated in the area Debalcevo, can strike at the miners or deeper – at Red Ray and anthracite to go to the border with Russia through the least covered by the host of the DNI and LC areas and immediately bring it under control, cutting off all supplies from the militia. If all assets collected by the Ukrainian side will be simultaneously and aggressively thrown into battle, the numerically small, poorly armed and poorly managed part of the militia without direct Russian assistance would be quickly defeated and the New Russia will cease to exist as soon as the people,” he said.
“Based on the available data at my disposal, as well as information and analysis of competent experts, I predict that the attack of Ukrainian troops will be primarily aimed at the capture of the city of Donetsk and directly MAKEEVKA agglomeration which is the largest and most important in the region,” emphasizes the former head of the Defense DNR offices.
According to him, the excuse for the attack can be any provocation, “which the Kiev junta has learned masterfully.” “The attack can only be swift and decisive, designed to achieve results quickly, because otherwise it loses all point. The Ukrainian side is well aware that if the operation will slow down, there is a high likelihood of Russian intervention. Grab Donetsk or at least part of it before the Russian government decides to intervene – that is the APU. And then it will be possible to declare a unilateral ceasefire and access to the United States and Europe with a statement of commitment to resolve the conflict by peaceful means. The main thing is: do not give the Russian government time to make adequate decisions. …
“Simply put, Kiev has decided to take a risk – quick hit, and then again make peace,” but on their own terms (because without Donetsk, or with that capital divided, the front line of any sovereignty of Novorossia is out of the question in principle). If their plan is successfully implemented, it will be the largest military-political defeat of the Russian Federation since 1991 and will cause serious internal political turmoil [in Russia],” he said.
“In this regard, I appeal to all members of the Russian services, regulatory agencies under the Minsk Agreement: pay attention to the plans of Ukrainian punitive battalions and inform the President [Putin] about the likely consequences of their implementation for the Russian people and Russia’s Donbass” [Note: the Donbass was for centuries part of Russia] — he summed up. IA «Regnum»
Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.