I think it best to assume that the sanctions against North Korea imposed by the UN with PRC and Russian support will not deter Pyongyang from pursuing its nuclear weapons program. The North Korean economy has been growing in recent years; even if it’s hit by declining coal exports it will muddle on.
The people are long-suffering, and religiously conditioned to revere the Kim dynasty that Washington loathes and insults. Having survived the economic impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and the effects of the famine years from 1994 to 1998. They are probably able to accept more economic hardship if it’s imposed by foreigners who seem to oppose the DPRK’s right to self-defense. The fact is, the U.S. has long sought regime change. (What did Dick Cheney say about North Korea, as he derailed talks in 2002? “We don’t negotiate with evil, we defeat it.”)
But now the State Department is denying that it seeks regime change, and that it is willing to talk with Pyongyang—meaning it’s willing to return to a practice abandoned fifteen years ago, with the repercussions we’ve seen. Trump even made that unusual statement in May that, “If it would be appropriate for me to meet with [Kim Jong Un] I would absolutely, I would be honored to do it, if it’s under the, again, under the right circumstances. But I would do that.” It will be necessary for somebody to do that, the alternative being a military strike condemned by…