By Adam Morrow and Khaled Moussa al-Omrani | Palestinian resistance factions signed on to an Egyptian ceasefire proposal last month aimed at bringing a measure of calm to the hapless Gaza Strip. In a bid to secure Tel Aviv’s endorsement of the plan, intelligence chief Omar Suleiman is expected to travel to Israel later this month.
“The head of intelligence will travel there after upcoming holiday celebrations in Israel,” Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said last week, without providing a specific date. During this week and next, Israel will celebrate the 60th anniversary of its establishment.
Ever since Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip last June, the territory has been subject to a series of devastating Israeli military operations, ostensibly launched in retaliation for Palestinian rocket attacks on Israeli border towns. Despite having won a majority in 2006 Palestinian legislative elections, Hamas is described by both Washington and Tel Aviv as a “terrorist organisation.”
In April, Egyptian mediators persuaded Palestinian resistance factions to accept a proposal for ‘tahdia’, or “calming” of hostilities, with Israel.
The initiative calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities by both sides. It further calls for the reopening of border crossings into and out of the Gaza Strip, which has been hermetically sealed by a year-long, Israel-enforced embargo.
According to official sources, this would include the contentious Rafah terminal, the sole transit point along Egypt’s 14 km border with the besieged territory.
Under the terms of the proposal, however, the ceasefire would initially apply only to the Hamas-governed Gaza Strip. If the truce holds, it would be extended to the West Bank — governed by the western-backed Fatah movement of Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas — after a period of six months.
At a meeting with Suleiman in Cairo in mid-April, Hamas officials gave the initiative their cautious support. While in Cairo days later, Abbas similarly declared Fatah’s official support for the Egyptian proposal.
In the last days of April, a dozen smaller Palestinian resistance groups — after a round of separate meetings with Suleiman — also conditionally signed on to the ceasefire plan.
“The factions clearly see tahdia as within their interests,” Abdelaziz Shadi, professor of political science and coordinator of the Israeli studies programme at Cairo University told IPS. “Palestinian consensus on the issue has bolstered Egypt’s position as mediator.”
Suleiman, a long-time arbitrator in Israeli-Palestinian affairs, is now mandated with pitching the proposal to Tel Aviv. While in Israel, he is expected to hold talks with several top officials, including Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defence Minister Ehud Barak.
The initiative has so far met with little enthusiasm from Israeli officialdom. According to reports in the Hebrew press, security officials insist Egypt eradicate all alleged cross-border arms smuggling and guarantee the release of a kidnapped Israeli soldier before terms of the proposal are even considered.
According to Shadi, Israel believes that its intransigence on the issue “will improve its bargaining position in future final-status negotiations.”
Egyptian ceasefire efforts run alongside on-again off-again peace talks between Olmert and Abbas, launched following last November’s Annapolis summit in the U.S. Having made virtually no headway to date, these negotiations have severely damaged the credibility of both Abbas and the entire U.S.-backed “peace process.”
One Egyptian official recently quoted in the state press noted that Cairo’s mediation efforts “are almost meaningless if not coupled with a change in the situation on the ground in Gaza and some political progress.”
Nevertheless, observers note that Hamas’ stated support for a cessation of hostilities with Israel represents a “historic concession” by the Islamist group.
“Until now, Hamas has eschewed any form of negotiation — direct or indirect –with Israel, the establishment of which it does not recognise,” Hatem al-Buluk, independent journalist and an authority on Israel-Palestine issues, told IPS.
According to Abdel-Halim Kandil, political analyst and former editor-in-chief of independent daily al-Karama, the shift can be attributed to both military and political considerations.
“A ceasefire would allow Hamas to recoup its military strength,” Kandil told IPS. “It would also show the international community that the group is able to pursue negotiations — even if indirectly — with Israel.”
Nevertheless, Kandil is pessimistic as to Suleiman’s chances of success with his Israeli counterparts.
“It will be a tough sell,” he said. “And even if Tel Aviv signs on, the ceasefire won’t last. Israel rarely adheres to ceasefires for more than a week.”
In mid-March, the Israeli military assassinated four Islamic Jihad leaders in the West Bank, breaking a week-long, Egypt-brokered ceasefire. The following day, resistance factions resumed firing short-range rockets into southern Israel.
Successful or not, Kandil noted, Egypt’s ongoing attempts at mediation have underlined Hamas’ central role in the equation.
“All sides now realise that the group cannot simply be isolated and ignored,” explained Kandil. “Either directly or indirectly, they have no choice but to engage Hamas.”