For decades, Germany’s Christmas markets have featured mulled wine, carousels and hand-carved gifts. This year, concrete blocks, surveillance cameras and plainclothes police officers also will be part of the scene, a year after a deadly attack here.
German authorities have stepped up security around the beloved seasonal festivals in a bid to prevent a repeat of last year’s Berlin Christmas market attack that left 12 people dead.
But many security experts say the efforts may do little to deter attackers and could even increase casualties should things go wrong. In fact, they say, a genuine security upgrade for the country’s galaxy of Christmas markets would be expensive, intrusive and might not work.
Take concrete barriers, said Chris Phillips, former head of the U.K.’s National Counter Terrorism Security Office. “If a vehicle hits a block and the block explodes, it’s extremely dangerous.…Shards of flying concrete will kill people.” He said police are too focused on past threats instead of anticipating the militants’ next moves. Islamic state fighters returning from Iraq and Syria, for instance, may try to replicate the truck and car bombs they used there.
“Historically, we’ve seen tactics used on battlefields move to urban environments,” said Bruce Hoffman, director of security studies at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service.
Germany’s more-than-1,450 Christmas markets are big business, attracting at least 85 million…