A Planned operation
On November 24th a Russian SU-24 bomber was shot down by an air to air missile fired from a Turkish F-16 at an altitude of 6000 meters. It fell inside Syrian territory four kilometers away from the border of Turkey. The plane was shot down in an unprovoked and cowardly manner.
With more revelations published from Russian sources it can be clearly seen that it was a planned operation that must have possibly involved more than one intelligent service.
Yesterday The Russian Air Force Chief provided a factual picture of the attack perpetrated by Turkish F-16 fighter aircraft toward Russian Su-24M in the skies over Syria on November 24.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports:
“Analyzing the video display of the situation, received from a command center of Force and Air Defense of Syria, we found the F16’s flew at 810 km / h from Turkey toward the Syrian border at a course of 190 degrees.
After the Turkish F16 approached the Su-24M at a distance equal to the range of missile launch – 5-7 km, which indicates that the F-16 was over the territory of the SAR, the fighter maneuvered sharply to the lower right and disappeared from the radar screen.
Objectively, the Turkish plane was in Syrian airspace for 40 seconds and went deep into its territory for 2 km and the Russian bomber did not violate the border of Turkey.”
The rescued pilot, Konstantin Murakhtin, stated to RT correspondent –
“It’s impossible that we violated their airspace even for a second.” “We were flying at an altitude of 6,000 meters in completely clear weather, and I had total control of our flight path throughout.”
“In actual fact, there were no warnings at all. Neither through radio, nor visually, so we did not at any point adjust our course. You need to understand the difference in speed between a tactical bomber like a Su-24, and that of the F16. If they wanted to warn us, they could have sat on our wing,” said Murakhtin.
Before Russia started its air operation over Syria it made an agreement with the US to report its flight paths. The US must have informed their allies. Turkey knew exactly what it was doing and definitely got help in this operation. It is very well known within military circles, that allied and, even sometimes hostile nations probe each other’s airspace. Throughout the cold war this was a very common, occurrence between the different powers. Standard protocol would be a non-aggressive interception and an aerial escort away from the violated airspace. No pilot would ever take it upon himself to decide to shoot down an aircraft in this way, possibly starting a world war, unless orders from Ground were received, and even then, any ground commander would likely have higher consultations from above his station to give orders for such an action against a hostile state, let alone a friendly state. In other words, just from a logical perspective this cannot take seconds but has to be prepared in advance.
Thus, it was a well-planned operation by Turkey and its military partners.
There is a possibility that the Turkmen rebel group were involved in this. VeteransToday said that group is a part of the new US backed “rebel” force, a mercenary group led by Turkish intelligence officers.
The Russian TV channel NTV conducted an investigation to establish the identity of this group leader. His name is Alpaslan Celik and here is what they discovered about the “turkmen” opposition group.
This flag and gesture belong to the Turkish youth organization called “Bozkurtlar” (“Gray Wolves”), the right-wing Turkish nationalists.
“According to authorities, 220 of its members carried out 694 murders of left-wing and liberal activists and intellectuals. Attacks on university students were commonplace. They killed hundreds of Alevis in the MaraÅŸ massacre of 1978 and are alleged to have been behind the Taksim Square massacre of 1977.”
Thus, the Turkish intelligence service leads this rebel group opposed to the legal government of a different country on the territory of that county, and the group resembles a Turkish neo-fascist group. They are getting supplied almost completely from Turkey.
Somehow it doesn’t appear to be a coincidence that this particular group happened to be at the right place at the right time at the Russian SU- 24 crash site.
Additionally, it could be considered an odd coincidence that live correspondents from CNN and FoxNews also appeared miraculously just in time at the area of the SU-24 crash site to interview the people on the ground who killed the Russian pilot.
What was the reason for the downing of the Russian aircraft?
First of all, the operations of the Russian, Syrian, Iran and some other allied forces and following the meeting of Putin with the leadership of Iran should seriously concern Erdogan, since the ground operation could lead to the collapse of all his clandestine plans and actions. The transportation of cheap oil, narcotics and artifacts were under threat by Russian planes destroying the columns of trucks.
The Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that Syrian based terrorists, lose one and half million dollars daily because of the air operation. The supply of 60 thousand tons of goods per day to the black market was stopped.
When Turkey asked about a buffer zone Sergey Lavrov explicitly noted that this proposal might been linked to Ankara’s desire to protect terrorists located there. “According to the information, he said, the infrastructure and militants, including warehouses with arms, munitions, command centers, supply points are located in this area”.
“Does it mean that much Turkey’s attention to this area, including persistent suggestions on creating a buffer zone in the area, is the desire to protect the infrastructure and to prevent its destruction? I have not received any answer” – Lavrov added.
More and more often facts began to emerge of Ankara’s cooperation with various representatives of terrorist organizations.
Erdogan’s daughter, Sumeyye, runs a secret Turkish hospital used to treat wounded ISIS soldiers near the Syrian border. The hospital is located in ÅžanlÄ±urfa, 150 km (93 miles) east of Gaziantep and 1,300 km (808 miles) southeast of Istanbul.
Erdogan’s son, Bilal, is often accused of being engaged in the smuggling of Syrian and Iraqi oil, stolen by ISIS to fund its caliphate and military operations.
“Bilal owns several maritime companies that control special wharves in the ports of Beirut and Ceyhan, the report alleges, that are used to transport ISIS oil to Asian markets in Japan-owned tankers, resulting in ISIS being the world’s wealthiest terrorist group. One of those companies, BMZ Ltd, is considered an Erdogan-family business and the president’s close relatives hold shares in it.”
Despite the short duration of Russian involvement in Syria it has achieved far more results than the dubious, uncommitted actions of the anti-terrorist coalition for a long time. Simply because the US and allies do not fight ISIS, but Assad. They don’t want a possible scenario of Russia as a “winner of international terrorism” where it becomes a key player in the region, and the Assad regime will remain in place. It means that the planned gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe through Syria won’t become realized so and the US plans to isolate Russia from Europe. For Turkey the scenario of “Russia the winner” is not acceptable in any way, since it destroys geopolitical hopes of a neo-Ottoman Empire, deprives the participation in the Qatar gas pipe project, and may even lead to decentralization of the country. Instead of getting a part of Syrian territory it could be faced with the establishment of an independent or semi-independent Kurdistan. Can Russian be considered Turkey’s “strategic partner” in this circumstance? I would rather use the word “opponent” if not “enemy”.
The same applies to the other participants of the project of gasoline from Qatar, such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The Russian victory would not just be a big financial loss but is standing in the way of global politics. Those countries put a lot of money to finance the “opposition” groups in Syria with a goal to remove Assad and place their own puppet government. The only real sin Assad committed is that he has always been a strong Russian ally and would never agree to such a project in contravention of Russian interests.
So, assuming all the above we can guess which intelligence services helped Turkey execute this operation.
At the same time the discrediting of Erdogan as an “accomplice of terrorists” would benefit the US who would prefer to see somebody less ambitious and more malleable for them. The goal could be accomplished by serving a Russian pilot as a sacrificial victim and then things could fall into place: back out of supporting Erdogan, agree with his reputation as an accomplice or sponsor of terrorists and let Russia do what it will to Turkey’s economy. A possible wave of civil unrest may topple a dictator off his throne. If the conflict between Russia and Turkey turned to a war it will save the American dollar and give the US the possibility to remain a world leader.
The repercussion: preset and possible
The Russian reply in military and economic punitive measure was far more resolute than expected. Military posturing with the deployment of the much feared and unrivaled S-400 missile system were sufficiently serious. A number of diplomatic visits have been canceled. Under threat of cancellation is the energy projects between the two countries, including the “Turkey Stream” and the construction of “Rosatom” — the possible first nuclear power plant in Turkey ($ 22 billion deal) . Add to it Turkish tourism and an embargo of some Turkish products.
If Russia didn’t have an active position toward Kurd’s situation we may guess that now it will be non-neutral. It is likely that soon the Kurds will get the weapons they asked about.
Russia was soon to extend the Treaty of Kars, in which a part of Armenian territory including their favorite Armenians Mount Ararat was to be given to Turkey. Putin did not accidentally use the “accomplice of terrorists” words. The treaty with accomplices of terrorists may not happen.
Turkey has in turn increased the number of military aircraft that are flying along the Turkish-Syrian border to 18 F-16’s on patrol. Turkish General Staff have also ordered the readiness of ground and air forces. Combat readiness of all sectors of the Armed Forces are raised at the highest level.
Nonetheless, the conflict most likely won’t escalate openly, but with all sides having their forces at highest levels of alert poses the increased risk of a sudden unforeseen escalation erupting.