白宫的策略是协助麦凯恩赢得十一月份

White House strategy is to help McCain win in November白宫的策略是协助麦凯恩赢得十一月份

Thursday, September 4th, 2008 周四， 2008年9月4日

The Fake US Victory in Iraq假冒美国在伊拉克的胜利

The Independent独立 | Political events in Iraq are seldom what they seem. |政治在伊拉克发生的事件很少，他们似乎什么。 The hand- over by the US military of control of Anbar province, once the heartland of the Sunni rebellion, to Iraqi forces is a case in point.手-由美军控制的安巴尔省，一旦心脏逊尼派叛乱，伊拉克部队是一个很好的例子。 The US will keep 25,000 American soldiers in Anbar, so the extent to which the Iraqi government will really take over is debatable.美国将保持25000名美军士兵在安巴尔省，所以在何种程度上，伊拉克政府真的会接管，是值得商榷的。 But the future of Anbar is a crucial pointer to the fate of Iraq.但未来的安巴尔省是一个关键的指针的命运伊拉克。 It is a vast area and one of the few parts of Iraq that is overwhelmingly Sunni.它是一个广阔的领域和其中的几个部分，伊拉克是压倒逊尼派。

The Iraqi government is dominated by Shia Islamic parties in alliance with Kurdish nationalists.伊拉克政府是由什叶派为主的伊斯兰党派在联盟与库尔德民族主义者。 The vital question now is whether or not this Shia-dominated government can reassure the Sunni minority that they are not going to be overrun as the US withdraws its forces.切身现在的问题是，是否有或没有这个什叶派占主导地位的政府可以放心的逊尼派，他们不打算要超支，随着美国撤走其军队。 The Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is in a very confident mood.首相， nouri基地-马利基，是在一个非常自信的心情。 In the past four months he feels he has successfully faced down the Shia militiamen of Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army by taking back control of Basra, Sadr City and Amarah.在过去的四个月中，他觉得他已经成功地面对下跌的什叶派民兵萨德尔萨德尔的迈赫迪军以回控制巴士拉，萨德尔城和阿马拉。 Then he refused to sign a new security accord with the US which President George Bush wanted to see agreed by August 31.然后，他拒绝签署一项新的安全协议与美国总统布什希望看到商定8月31日。

In the past few weeks he has been confronting his Kurdish allies over the future of the oil city of Kirkuk and the town of Khanaqin.在过去数星期以来，他一直面临他的库尔德盟国未来的石油城市基尔库克和城市的哈奈根。

Mr Maliki may be overplaying his hand but there is no doubt that the Iraqi state is becoming more powerful in Iraq and the Mahdi Army, the Americans and the Kurds less so.议员马利基可能夸大了他的手，但，这是毫无疑问的是，伊拉克的国家越来越强大，在伊拉克和迈赫迪军，美国人和库尔德人少。 The Americans in particular feel that he exaggerates the extent to which his success against the Mahdi Army was because of the new strength of the Iraqi security forces.美国人，尤其是觉得他夸大了何种程度，他的成功对迈赫迪军是因为新的力量，伊拉克安全部队。

These troops were doing badly until they received American support.这些部队正在做的严重，直到他们收到了美国的支持。
Nevertheless, Mr Maliki’s position is strong.不过，议员马利基的立场是强烈。 He seems to have realized that he may need the US, but the US also cannot do without him and is in no position to replace him as it did with his predecessor, Ibrahim al-Jaafari.他似乎已经意识到，他可能需要美国，但是美国也不能没有他，是在没有立场，以取代他，因为它没有与他的前任，易卜拉欣贾法里。

Much of what the White House is now doing is done to help the Republicans in the presidential election.大部分什么白宫，是政府目前所做的做是为了帮助共和党在总统选举。 The aim is to give the impression that Iraq has finally come right for the US and victory is finally in its grasp.目的是要给人一种印象，伊拉克终于来到了正确的，美国和最后的胜利是在其掌握。 The surge is promoted as the strategy by which the tide was turned and it is true that the Sunni uprising against the US occupation has largely ended.风是晋升为战略，其中红潮拒绝和，这是事实逊尼派起义反对美国的占领已经在很大程度上结束。

But it has done so for reasons that have little to do with the surge or American actions of any kind.但它这样做的原因，有没有什么与风或美国的行动，任何形式的保证。 Crucial to the success of the government against the Mahdi Army has been the support of Iran.成功的关键，政府对迈赫迪军一直支持伊朗。 It is they who arranged for the Shia militiamen to go home.这是他们谁安排什叶派民兵回家。

It takes real cheek for Mr Bush to claim yesterday that “Anbar is no longer lost to al-Qa’ida” since during the last presidential election in 2004, he was claiming that the media was exaggerating the success of the insurgents.需要真正的脸颊议员要求布什昨天说， “安巴尔省已不再是失去基地”以来，在去年总统选举在2004年，他被称媒体夸大成功的叛乱分子。

Patrick Cockburn is the Ihe author of “Muqtada: Muqtada Al-Sadr, the Shia Revival, and the Struggle for Iraq帕特里克科伯恩是IHE的作者“萨德尔：萨德尔萨德尔的支持者，什叶派的复兴，和斗争伊拉克

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