In any analysis of contemporary international politics it pays to be cautiously pessimistic. As the default mode one can generally expect that any way in which things can go wrong to threaten the peace and security of the planet, they will. Anticipation of improvement is a chump’s bet.
That’s why the analyst’s gut instinct rebels at any indication that things overall may be moving in a positive direction, however haltingly or indirectly. But consider:
- Goodbye Russiagate, hello Spygate: Allegations of Trump’s and his team’s collusion with the Kremlin are increasingly exposed as what they are: a cover for an anti-constitutional conspiracy within the structures of the US Deep State (CIA, NSA, FBI, Department of Justice, etc.) in complicity with – the Russians? – no with their British sister agencies (MI6, GCHQ), first to deny Trump the presidency, then to neuter him and remove him from office, and above all to block any chance of a patch-up with Russia. While Robert Mueller and his merry band of Democratic donors certainly have not given up, their prospects are fading and the Russia obsession is beginning to turn into a political liability for the DNC in the November Congressional elections.
- Europe’s anti-Russia sanctions: American pressure on Europe with respect to trade with Iran, added to Trump’s new tariffs, feeds resentment across Europe, especially in powerful Germany, which especially objects to Washington’s threatening sanctions on companies participating in Nord Stream 2. It may be too soon to guess how soon the EU will pull the plug on anti-Russian sanctions, but there’s something in the air when even the likes of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker can say that “Russia-bashing has…