Zero Hedge
August 17, 2018
Nate Silver, whose polling firm FiveThirtyEight (owned by ABC News) called the 2016 election in Hillary Clinton’s favor with 71.4% chance of winning, is at it again – this time predicting that Democrats have a 75% chance of retaking the House of Representatives in the midterm elections.
Yes, this Nate Silver – whose November 8 prediction was flat wrong – even after he penned a mea-culpa following the 2016 primaries entitled “How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump”:
But with some time to reflect on the problem, I also wonder if there’s been too much #datajournalist self-flagellation. Trump is one of the most astonishing stories in American political history. -Nate Silver
Alas for poor Nate, the self flagellation continued:
FiveThirtyEight says there is a 10 percent chance that Democrats gain fewer than 14 seats and a 10 percent chance of a big wave that would see them gain more than 58 seats.
The website goes on to project the final tally will be 230 House seats for Democrats and 205 for Republicans. Democrats currently hold 193 seats to Republicans’ 236 seats, in addition to six vacancies. FiveThirtyEight plans to update the estimates daily. –The Hill
Here’s Nate’s take on midterms:
Meanwhile, a CNN poll from Wednesday also finds that Democrats will hold an 11-point advantage in the House. Wasn’t this fun two years ago?
Flashback to Nate’s “moment”:
This article was posted: Friday, August 17, 2018 at 6:47 am
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