In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff said we are basically enjoying the calm before the storm right now.
With the US missile strike in Syria, rumblings of a trade war and a generally weak dollar, gold briefly flirted with $1,365 last week. But the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate hikes continues to create strong headwinds against the yellow metal. Last week, the Fed released its March FOMC minutes and most analysts interpreted them as “hawkish.” In fact, many people now think the Fed will nudge rates up again in June, leaving six months to get in the much-anticipated third hike of the year and possibly even get in a fourth.
The Fed bases its hawkishness on its anticipation of continued strong economic growth and increasing inflation. Peter said they have it half right. Inflation is going to continue to increase. But the central bankers don’t even really have that right. Peter says inflation is actually going to go up faster than projected. The bottom line is that the Fed isn’t going to be able to push through all of these rate hikes.
The Fed is not going to be able to deliver the rate hikes the Fed is expecting, and again, its the expectation of more rate hikes that is what is keeping the lid on the price of gold. But it’s only a matter of time before the market blows the lid off and the price of gold goes up.”
Peter said gold is basically trading sideways right now, in advance of a breakout. Meanwhile, the dollar is doing the same thing in the other direction. The greenback is weak, but not breaking down. On the other hand, it isn’t recovering any of its losses. Peter thinks its treading water right now before it head lower again.
The Atlanta Fed dropped its Q1 GDP estimate twice last week. It is now projecting a…