SchNEWS DRILLS FOR THE TRUTH IN PEAK OIL THEORY schnews演习，为真理，在繁忙的石油理论
SchNEWS schnews | From Transition Town workshops to the city slickers at the Financial Times (to over-excited pieces in ill-researched journals like SchNEWS), there’s been more and more interest in ‘Peak Oil’. |由过渡城市讲习班，以城市slickers在金融时报（过度兴奋件在虐待研究期刊一样， schnews ） ，有越来越多的兴趣， '山顶的石油' 。 Perhaps it’s got something to do with the price of a barrel reaching $140+ (down to a mere $115ish at the mo), and more noticeably for most, petrol at the pumps is at record highs.或许是得到了一些事都与价格每桶达到140元+ （下降至一个仅仅美元115ish在MO ）的，更明显的为最，汽油在泵是在纪录高位。 Not to mention UK power companies pushing the burden on to punters with up to 35% price increases.更遑论英国电力公司推动的负担，以投注者高达35 ％ ，价格上涨。
So, is the reality of scarce energy really beginning to hit home?因此，是现实稀少的能源真的开始打回家呢？ Is the oil now running out?是石油，现在失控？
The basic premise is what’s known as Hubbert’s Peak.基本前提是什么的被称为胡伯特的高峰期。 Oil, a finite commodity with an ever expanding demand, will reach its halfway point somewhere in the early 2000s (now) and from then on will irreversibly decline.石油，有限的商品与不断扩大的需求，将达到它的中途点某处，在2000年早期， （现在） ，从那时起，将不可逆转地下降。 Hubbert developed his theory in the 1950s when he predicted that America’s domestic oil would peak by the mid 70s.胡伯特发展他的理论在20世纪50年代时，他预测说，美国的国内石油会高峰期70年代中期。 In the mid-80s they realised he was right.在八十年代中期，他们意识到他是正确的。 Since then others have taken his predictions and expanded them to fit the whole globe, where the consensus has been for a peak in the first decade of the 21st century.自那时以来已采取别人，他的预言和扩大他们，以适应整个地球，那里的共识，已为高峰期，在第一个十年的二十一世纪。
Scary stuff, and not just for gas guzzling SUV drivers but for all of us; it’s oil that fuels the equipment that sows and reaps our crops (and makes the pesticides to slowly kill us with blemish-free uniform produce) and oil that fuels the trucks that drive the food to our shops.可怕的东西，而不是只为气体guzzling SUV的司机，但对我们所有人来说，它的石油燃料的设备母猪和得到我们的作物（使农药，慢慢杀死我们，与污点-免费统一制作）和石油燃料卡车驱动食物对我们的商店。 Add to this plastics, fertilisers, and all the other by products it becomes easy to predict apocalypse if the pumps ever run dry (see加入此塑料，化肥，和所有其他产品，它很容易预测的启示，如果水泵运行以往任何时候都干（见 SchNEWS 499 schnews 499 ). ） 。
Something like this actually happened not so long ago, back in the ‘90s, in that wacky dictatorship called North Korea.像这样的实际情况并非如此，前不久，早在九十年代，在这古怪专政，所谓的北韩。 The industrialised and oil dependent nation found itself without petroleum after its sole provider - the Soviet Union - collapsed.工业化和石油依赖的国家本身没有发现石油后，其唯一供应商-苏联-崩溃。 The result was that, far from western eyes, over a million people died as the infrastructure collapsed.结果是，到目前为止，从西方人眼里，超过100万人死亡，作为基础设施的崩溃。 And, so warns the Peak Oil doomsayers, this could happen on a global scale.和，因此，警告的高峰期油doomsayers ，这可能发生在全球范围内。
WELL WELL WELL 以及，以及，以及
All of this has some anarcho-primitivists jumping with glee at the prospect of the imminent collapse of earth-raping industrial capitalist society.这一切，有一些anarcho - primitivists跳跃与吉利在展望即将崩溃的地球强奸工业资本主义社会。 But, before you stock up on tinned goods, shotgun cartridges and bottled water, here’sa few things to consider:但之前，你的股票了对罐头商品，猎枪子弹和瓶装水，以下几件事要考虑：
Firstly, there’s no oil shortage.首先，有没有什么石油短缺。 This may come as a bit of a surprise to all those who’ve been watching the prices rise and rise.这可能是因为有点感到意外，所有这些谁已经看价格兴起和增多。 As the Saudis recently pointed out to outgoing President Bush - pumping more oil won’t lower the price.作为沙特最近指出，即将离任的美国总统布什-抽水更多的石油将不会降低价格。 Actually, there’sa glut of oil in the supply markets.其实，有过剩的石油供应市场。 The Iranians (one of the oil nations pumping under their maximum capacity) have tankers full of the stuff that they just can’t shift because no one wants it.伊朗人（其中一个石油泵站联合国根据其最高容量）油轮充分的东西，他们只是不能移，因为没有人要它。 What’s lacking is refining capacity.有什么缺乏的是炼油能力。
While oil use in the US has increased 35% in the last 30 years, no new refineries have been built to keep up with demand.而石油的使用，在美国增加了35 ％ ，在过去30年来，没有新的炼油厂已建成，以配合需求。 The ability to turn oil into petrol, diesel, aviation fuel etc is massively underdeveloped by the oil corporations, who generally like to keep refining to ‘safe’ (ie Western and friendly) countries.的能力，把油到汽油，柴油，航空燃油等，是大量欠发达由石油企业，谁普遍想保留的精炼，以'安全' （即西方和友好国家） 。 By artificially creating a bottleneck in the amount of usable oil, the price just goes up and up, leading to massive profits for the oil business as this nice little scam can keep functioning.由人为地创造一个瓶颈，在数额的可用油，价格只是云和，导致大量的利润为石油生意，因为这尼斯小骗案可以继续运作。 Exxon Mobil made profits of $11.8 bn in the last quarter alone, and the other big five oil companies are making similarly obscene dosh.埃克森美孚利润11.8元英国国民在最后一个季度，仅及其他大5间油公司正在作出同样的色情dosh 。 The scam has worked pretty well so far.骗案的工作相当不错，至今。
The predictions of world oil reserves are based on proven, reachable oil.预测世界石油储量的基础上证明，可达石油。 This is a tricky concept because, as it turns out, there’sa whole lot of ‘unproven’ marginal oil that’s already making its way on to world markets.这是一个棘手的概念，因为，正如原来，有很多'未经证实'边际石油的已经作出自己的方式对世界市场。 The most known about of these are the tar sands of Alberta, Canada.最知道这些都是沥青砂的Alberta ，加拿大。 Until very recently (when the technology became economical on a large scale) these were considered ‘unproven,’ yet a lot of these are now making their way to the US (and world) oil markets.直到最近， （当技术成为经济上一个大型） ，这些被认为是'未经证实，但有很多，这些都是现在他们的方式向美国（和世界）石油市场。
The tars sands, also known as bitumen, are a very dirty form of oil, one that’s very expensive, polluting and energy hungry to exploit and process.该焦油砂，也称为沥青，是一个非常肮脏的形式，油，一，这是非常昂贵，污染和能源饥饿，剥削和进程。 It takes the equivalent of one barrel of oil to extract six barrels of oil from the tar sands.它相当于1每桶石油中提取6桶石油，从沥青砂。 They also happen to be located in an area of unspoilt natural wilderness, but hey, what profitable minerals aren’t these days?他们也有可能发生将设在面积未受破坏的自然原野，但嘿，什么有利可图的矿物质，这些天？ Canada’s tar sands contain an amount of oil in excess of that under Saudi Arabia’s sands.加拿大的焦油砂含有的金额，在石油过剩，根据沙特阿拉伯的金沙。 And exploiting them is fast becoming its most profitable activity.并利用他们正迅速成为其最有利可图的活动。
Venezuela has similar deposits of bitumen in Orinoco, and significantly larger than Canada’s.委内瑞拉也有类似的存款在奥里诺科沥青，并显着大于加拿大的。 They’re estimated at around 260 million barrels (ie another Saudi Arabia) on top of the 80 million or so of ordinary oil.他们估计约260万桶（即另一个沙特阿拉伯）对上方的80000000或使普通石油。 They’re easier to exploit than Canada’s and are barely touched.他们很容易利用比加拿大的和几乎感动。 It’s no wonder that the US has got such a keen interest in the actions of Venezuelan President, Hugo the Chavmeister.这是不奇怪的说，美国已得到这样一个浓厚的兴趣，行动的委内瑞拉总统查韦斯，雨果该chavmeister 。 Industry experts had been saying that these areas will become among the world’s future energy heartlands, but that until oil was worth over $40 per barrel it was too expensive to develop.业内专家一直在说，这些地区将成为跻身世界未来能源的市镇，但直到石油，价值超过40 ％的每桶这是太昂贵，发展下去。 Oil’s now worth over $100 and will be so for some time to come, so go figure.石油的现在价值超过100元，并会因此在今后一段时间内，所以到的数字。
CRUDE THOUGHTS 原油的思考
A real danger of Peak Oil, or rather, the fear of peak oil, is that it risks handing states and corporations even more planet-wrecking power.一个真正的危险山顶油，或者更确切地说，恐惧的高峰石油，是因为它的风险移交国家和企业更行星的破坏力量。 If people believe the oil is running out, then pressure from consumers and businesses alike is to find more at any cost.如果人们相信，石油是失控的话，压力来自消费者和企业是要找到更多不惜任何代价。 This is already being written into the US election strategy of the republicans, where John McCain is promoting drilling in the Arctic Circle as a way out of the energy ‘crisis’.这是已经被写进了美国大选的策略，共和党，如果麦凯恩是促进钻井在北极圈作为一个出路的能源'危机' 。
This could lead to a seriously deadly irony: The warnings of Peak Oil by environmentalists could lead to the erosion of the public’s psychological barriers protecting the few remaining areas of wilderness left.这可能导致严重的致命的讽刺：警告，山顶石油环保可能导致的侵蚀公众的心理障碍，保护少数，其余地区的荒野离开。 There’s oil in unknown (but quite possibly huge) quantities in Greenland, as well as plenty in Alaska, where the Bush junta has already green-lighted the destructive process of exploring and exploiting.还有的石油在未知的（但很可能是巨大的）的数量在格陵兰，以及很多在阿拉斯加，而布什军政府已经绿明亮的破坏性的探索过程和剥削。 The Russians have laid their claim to their chunk of the Arctic Circle too, with an eye to expansion for more oil.俄罗斯奠定了他们声称他们的大块北极圈太多，着眼于扩大为更多的石油。
And, in a genuinely insane piece of economic logic, as global warming melts the Arctic’s frozen seas, the previously unreachable oil reserves that lay under the ice become more exploitable, and, as they are burned, yet more undersea oil becomes available. ，并在一个真正疯狂的一块经济的逻辑，随着全球变暖融化，北极的冻结公海，以前无法石油储备，奠定下的冰变得更加利用，而且，正如他们被烧毁，但更多的海底石油成为可用。 Or if that runs out there’s always the Antarctic…或如果违背了总有南极…
And if these reserves still don’t prove to be quite enough to satisfy demand, there’s always ole king coal.如果这些储备，仍然没有被证明是相当不够的，以满足需求，总会有机会的OLE国王煤。 China, main producers of the world’s plastic consumer tat, is rich in coal but virtually empty of large oil deposits.中国，主要生产的世界塑料消费达，有丰富的煤，但几乎空白的大型石油储藏。
To keep their economy expanding at its current pace they are building two coal fired power stations a week.以保持其经济，扩大在其目前的速度，他们正在建设两个燃煤发电厂一个星期。 However, they need oil as well for their cars and trucks (and tanks).不过，他们需要的石油，以及为他们的小汽车和卡车中（和坦克） 。 As oil’s expensive and foreign suppliers can be notoriously unreliable (they haven’t as yet turned to Amercian-style invasion of oil producers) what they really crave is a domestic source of oil, which they don’t have.作为石油的昂贵和外国供应商可以众所周知的是不可靠的（他们还没有转向amercian式入侵石油生产国）什么他们真的渴望的是国内的石油来源，而他们没有。
Or at least didn’t, until they turned to the combined wisdom of the Nazis and the apartheid-era South Africans.或者至少是没有，直到他们转向结合的智慧，纳粹和种族隔离时期的南非。 Both the Nazis during the war and the South Africans during sanctions found it hard to import oil.无论是纳粹在战争期间和南非的制裁期间，发现难以进口石油。 Luckily for them a German scientist found a way to turn coal into synthetic oil, known as the Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis.幸好他们来说是一项德国科学家找到了一种方法，把煤转化合成油，众所周知，由于费托合成。 It’sa very energy hungry process (of course) and needless to say massively polluting (obviously) but it does mean that, even if oil is tricky to get hold of, you can just magic some out of coal - kind of like a very dirty alchemy that’s bad for the planet.这是非常能源饥饿的过程（当然）和不用说，大量污染（显然） ，但它意味着，即使石油是棘手的掌握，您也可以只魔术一些煤-种一样，一个很肮脏的炼丹术认为，不好的为地球。
China has already constructed its first huge synthetic oil refinery in Chinese Mongolia.中国已经建造了第一次庞大的综合炼油厂在中国蒙古。
PRICE OF SUCCESS? 成功的代价呢？
The current cost of oil, often mistaken as a indicator of its scarcity, is actually driven by far more complex forces.目前的成本，油，往往误以为作为一个指标，其稀少，实际上是驱动复杂得多的力量。
As a commodity like any other, it’s traded on the international markets via brokers.作为一种商品像任何其他，它的交易在国际市场通过经纪人。 In recent years the power of the cartel that set the price of oil, OPEC, has been significantly reduced, and now it’s the speculators that call the shots on its price (more or less - OPEC still caries a lot of weight, but it’sa player now rather than the whole game).在近年的权力，卡特尔所订的石油价格，欧佩克，已大大减少，而现在的炒家的呼吁，枪声就其价格（更多或更少-欧佩克仍然龋了不少重量，但这是Player现在，而不是整场比赛） 。 That means that, as long as the price of oil is rising, speculators will push the price even higher.这意味着，只要石油价格上升，炒家将推动价格甚至更高。
It’s estimated that as much as 60% of the price of today’s oil is pure speculation.据估计，高达60 ％的价格，今天的油价是纯属揣测。 To give an example of the logic of nonsense capitalism: Today oil is worth, say $125 a barrel.举一个例子的逻辑荒谬的资本主义：今天，石油是值得说， 125元一桶。 As the price is going up, you, a speculator, figure that if you buy some at that price today, you can sell it in a week or two for $135.由于价格持续上升，你，投机者，这一数字如果您购买一些价格在今天，你可以卖掉它在一周或两周为135元。 Because you’re buying oil, other speculators have more confidence the price will continue upwards, so they’re happy to pay $130 after you.因为您购买石油，其他炒家有更多的信心，价格会继续向上，所以他们很乐意支付130元后你。
This continues until no one who actually needs to use oil for their cars, homes or businesses etc. can even afford to refill their zippo lighters, at which point the entire economy crashes, taking the price of oil with it.这种情况持续下去，直到没有人究竟是谁需要使用石油为他们的汽车，在家中或企业等，甚至可以负担充值他们的贼婆打火机，此时整个经济体系的崩溃，同时石油价格与它。
In fact, herein lies one of the central flaws in the theory of peak oil - supply and demand: that fundamental essential of capitalism.在事实上，这是一个把中央的缺陷，在理论高峰石油-供应和需求：基本的必要的资本主义。 If the price of oil goes up as its demand goes up (and its availability goes down) then at some point it will be too expensive for oil based industrial capitalism to afford.如果石油价格上升，作为其需求上升（及其有效性下降） ，然后在某个点，这将过于昂贵，石油为基础的工业资本主义的负担。 At that point we enter a new depression/recession.在这一点上，我们进入了一个新的抑郁症/衰退。 Businesses collapse, people can’t afford to run their cars, factories grind to a halt and so on.企业的崩溃，人们不能运行他们的汽车，工厂，磨碎，以制止等。 The effect of a depression means that, with the entire economy in free fall, the demand for oil drops.影响一抑郁症的手段，与整个经济的免费下降，对石油的需求下降。 As the demand drops so does its price, until at some point people can afford to buy it again, and, hurrah, capitalism reasserts itself (albeit in a leaner, less carbon-heavy form).由于需求下降，那么它的价格，直到在某个点的人可以买得起它再次，并hurrah ，资本主义重申本身（尽管在一个精简，减少碳-沉重的形式） 。
DRILLER KILLER 钻机杀手
The truth is that the oil has already peaked for Western multinationals.事实是，石油已经达到高峰，为西方跨国公司。 In the 70s, major Western oil giants controlled over half the world’s oil, they now only own 13%.在70年代，西方主要石油巨头控制超过半数的世界石油，他们现在只有自己的13 ％ 。 As Arjun Murti, an energy analyst at Goldman Sachs puts it: “ What we have now is geopolitical peak oil. ”作为印度的阿帕马尔蒂，能源高盛分析师所说： “ 我们现在是地缘政治的高峰石油 ” 。
There’s plenty of oil left, but it’s all in either politically unstable / US-unfriendly states (Iraq, Iran, Russia) or difficult and expensive to get at (the Arctic, Canadian tar sands).有各种各样的石油离开，但它的一切，无论在政治上的不稳定/美不友好的国家（伊拉克，伊朗，俄罗斯）或困难和昂贵，以获得在（北极，加拿大焦油沙） 。 These alternative sources of fossil fuels could keep us going well into the future, past our lifetimes and maybe even that of our grandchildren.这些替代来源的化石燃料，可以让我们去到未来，过去我们的有生之年，甚至认为我们的子孙。 The problem is: exactly that.问题是：正是这一点。 The effect of burning a trillion tons of coal and perhaps a trillion barrels of oil is that the planet will burn up faster than a petrol-soaked moth near a candle.影响焚烧万亿吨标准煤，也许1万亿桶石油的是，这个星球将烧伤快，比汽油浸泡蛾附近的蜡烛。 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the world’s leading authority) predict a global temperature rise of at least 3°C by 2050, with further predictions that CO² and climate temperatures will rise and rise.政府间气候变化专门委员会（世界领先的权力机构）预测，全球温度上升至少3 ° C时，到2050年，与进一步预测，合作²和气候，气温将兴起和增多。
Mother nature has been steadily locking away excess carbon under the ground for the last three billion years in order to maintain a steady, liveable temperature for all of us life-forms.大自然一直在稳步锁定远离过剩的碳下，地面为去年30.0亿年，以维持一个稳定，适于居住的温度对我们所有生命形式。 Suddenly, us wayward children have begun reversing the process, sticking it back in the air.突然，我们任性的孩子已开始扭转过程中，坚持这回在空气中。 In the process we’re experimenting with the atmosphere on an unprecedented scale, causing massive changes to the climate and biosphere, driving many species to extinction on a par with the extinction of the dinosaurs.在这个过程中我们正在试点，与气氛中就以前所未有的规模，造成巨大的改变，气候和生物圈保护区，驾驶许多物种的灭绝就等同于灭绝的恐龙。
The real problem isn’t that we’re going to run out of fossil fuels.真正的问题是，不是我们要去一发不可收拾的化石燃料。 The problem is what happens when we don’t…问题是，会发生什么事我们不…
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Translations 翻译
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- POLITICS DRIVEN BY FICTION: MADE FOR TV政治驱动的小说：为电视
- Diebold Finally Admits its Voting Machines Drop Votes diebold终于承认其投票机的下拉票
- Blair has no right to lecture on the rule of law布莱尔无权讲座，法治
- 3,000 Vets, War Protesters Hand-Deliver Their Message 3000兽医，战争的示威者手提供他们的信息
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