RINF.COM: HET BREKENDE ALTERNATIEF VAN HET NIEUWS
Dinsdag, 10 Juni, 2008
RINF.COM: HET BREKENDE ALTERNATIEF VAN HET NIEUWS
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BREKEND NIEUWS |
De eerste Tekens van „PiekGas“?
Zaterdag, 7 Juni, 2008
Maar het is de olieprijs die al momenteel aandacht aantrekt. Vorige maand, Indonesische Voorzitter Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono stelde een officieel bezoek aan uit Europa amid nationale protesten tegen de verhogingen van brandstofprijzen. In Europa, Frans de vissers bleven strategisch verscheidene blokkeren havens, terwijl hun tegenhangers binnen Spanje en Portugal bedreigde ook protesten. In het UK, kwamen de vrachtwagenchauffeurs op Londen om een vermindering van brandstofplicht te vragen samen, terwijl Eerste Minster Gordon Brown gehouden dringende besprekingen met de olieindustrie. Over in Amerika, werd de olieprijs gezegd om vele ruilende bedrijven aan de rand van faillissement gedwongen te hebben. Maar aangezien de olie net onder verslagniveaus blijft hangen, zijn er dagelijkse waarschuwingen dat de dagen van goedkope olie voor altijd zijn gegaan en de prijs van olie kan spoedig $150 of zelfs $200 zijn een vat door volgend jaar. Er is ook een dagelijks debat in verband met wat eigenlijk deze ongekende prijzen veroorzaakt. Een stijgend aantal invloedrijke stemmen zegt het niets heeft met de daadwerkelijke levering van olie te doen maar het is neer aan speculanten die de vluchtige markt exploiteren. De OPEC, die onder brand van vele commentators voor niet het stijgen is de productie meer, debatteert dat de markt reeds voldoende wordt geleverd en dat $35 per vat van de recente verhoging aan speculatie kunnen worden neergezet. Andere stemmen gaan, zoals Jeroen van der Ver, hoofd akkoord van globale oliereus, Shell, die debatteert dat de verslagolieprijzen aan „marktgevoel“ eerder dan een tekort aan levering toe te schrijven zijn. „Wat wij zeggen en wat wij zien is daar is geen fysieke tekorten,“ hij zegt. “Daar zijn geen tankers wachtend in het Midden-Oosten, daar wachten geen auto's bij benzineposten omdat zij uit - van - voorraad zijn. Dit moet met psychologie in de markten doen en u kunt psychologie voorspellen niet.“ His view is shared by George Soros, the multi-billion dollar financier, known as the man who nearly “broke the Bank of England”, in the early nineties. Soros argues that it is financial speculators that are largely responsible for driving the crude oil price. “Speculation… is increasingly affecting the price,” he said. “The price has this parabolic shape which is characteristic of bubbles,” he said. Political action on speculators is increasing. Last week a senior German politician proposed a worldwide ban on oil trading by speculators. Uwe Beckmeyer, the head of transport for the Social Democratic party, the junior partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling coalition, argued that the recent 25 per cent rise in oil price had nothing to do with underlying supply and demand. “It’s pure speculation,” he said, adding that his party would be calling for joint measures by the G8 to prohibit leveraged trading on energy contracts. Also last week, in America, Senator Jeff Bingaman, the chairman of the influential Senate Energy Committee, asked the top futures market regulator in the US, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, for more information about how much impact speculation was having on the oil futures market. Bingamen then complained he had been given “glaringly incomplete” data by the CFTC, which argued that speculative trading was not to blame for recent price rises. If speculation is not to blame, what is? Some argue that it is the weak dollar. Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University in the US argues that “Twenty-five percent of the increase in oil prices is strictly due to the fact that the dollar has gone down by 25 percent, because oil all over the world is priced in dollars.” However, others are now arguing that the high oil price is down to good old simple economics. Demand has outstripped supply over the last couple of years and so the price has increased, on the back of roaring demand, especially from China and the Middle East. “The high-priced energy environment is being driven by the fact that demand has outstripped supply,” President George Bush’s Energy Secretary, Samuel Bodman, said this month: “We have sopped up all the available spare oil production capacity in the system.” Others concur. One of the authoritative arbiters of how much oil there is the International Energy Agency, that is currently in the middle of its first attempt to comprehensively assess the condition of the world’s top 400 oil fields. Although the findings will not be published until November, according to the Wall Street Journal the IEA is “preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.” Fatih Birol, the International Energy Agency’s chief economist, said the oil industry had entered “a new energy world order” where it was harder to keep supply and demand in equilibrium. “What has happened in the last few years has not been in line with economic theory,” he says. For years the IEA predicted that supplies of crude would gently increase in line with demand increasing to some 117 million barrels per day by 2030. But not anymore. Buried in the IEA website are figures that up the theory that the supply of oil is in real trouble. Since the beginning of 2004, oil’s price has gone from $33 per barrel to over $130 per barrel. In the same period, demand has increased by some 4.3 million barrels per day to 86.5 million barrels per day, whereas supply has increased by only 2.2 million barrels per day to 85.6 million. Supply is already struggling to keep up with demand, let alone reach over 100 million barrels a day. The bottom line is that demand is now outstripping supply, giving credence to the peak oil pundits that the days of cheap oil over, and the global economy could be heading for a nasty shock. See More:World NewsHave Your Say: The First Signs of “Peak Gas”? Please note, only selected comments will be published. Or discuss this report in our new forums 7 Responses to “The First Signs of “Peak Gas”?”
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Door Andy Rowell | De consumenten de wereld beginnen over aan de reusachtige benzineprijzen te protesteren zij bij de pomp betalen. Maar terwijl de wereld over de olieprijzen gek gaat, zijn er ongerust makende tekens over wat in de gasmarkt gebeurt die ramp kon ook spellen.
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[…] The bottom line is that demand is now outstripping supply, giving credence to the peak oil pundits that the days of cheap oil over, and the global economy could be heading for a nasty shock. This article taken from rinf.com […]