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De krimpende Invloed van de Federale Reserve van de V.S.

Woensdag, 2 Juli, 2008

Vernedering voor M. Dollar: Ben Bernanke, de voorzitter van de Bank van de Federale Reserve van Verenigde Staten, ziet een algemeen onderzoek door het Internationale Monetaire Fonds onder ogen. Enkel één meer voorbeeld van Gevoed het verliezen van zijn macht.

De bank van de Federale Reserve van Verenigde Staten, of Gevoed, schijnt zo veel een deel van Amerika zoals Coca-Cola of Pizza Hut. Maar minstens één verschil is duidelijk in recente dagen geworden. Terwijl de pizzaketting en de niet-alcoholische dranke maker waarschijnlijk zullen hun werkingsgebied van invloed in de leeftijd van globalisering uitbreiden, vindt de centrale bank van de V.S. dat zijn macht krimpt.

Geen Gevoede leider in de geschiedenis van de V.S. is gedwongen om voor te leggen aan het soort vernedering dat Ben Bernanke onder ogen ziet.

Dit is gedeeltelijk neer aan omstandigheden. De inflatie gaat en omhoog uit, en het gemiddelde van dit jaar zal waarschijnlijk 4 percenten bedekken. Maar deze tijdM. De dollar is ook M. Machteloos. Hij kan rentevoeten opheffen in de herfst, of hij kan bidden, die waarschijnlijk de betere keus zouden zijn. Minstens zou het gebed niet de economie van de V.S. verhinderen te groeien, een hoogst waarschijnlijk resultaat als de rentevoeten uitgaan.

Na jaren van de groei, zijn de Verenigde Staten nu op de rand van een recessie, die eerder zal worden verdiept dan zacht geworden door een strak geldbeleid. De investeringen zullen automatisch duurder worden, zal besteden het van de consument worden in bedwang gehouden en de economische groei zal vertragen, onmiddellijk beïnvloedend werkloosheidscijfers en lonen.

De handboekconclusie is dat dit de waarde van geld zal stabiliseren, omdat niemand zal durven hogere lonen of hogere prijzen eisen. Maar de macro-ekonomiehandboeken zijn niet meer veel in de leeftijd van globalisering waard. De moderne inflatie wordt gedreven door de globale schaarste van middelen. Tegenwoordig overschrijdt de koopkracht het kopen kans. Bovenal, zijn er niet genoeg olie, en ook weinig grondstoffen en voedingsmiddelen. Deze meer en meer schaarse middelen worden de nadruk van geschillen onder vele mensen en miljarden dollars staan op het spel.

Vandaar dat is de prijs van een vat ruwe olie (159 liter) van $25 (16€) in 2002 tot $135 (87€) in 2008 gestegen. And it is also why the price of corn has tripled in the same time period, while that of copper has almost quintupled.

If the inflation introduced in the United States is excluded, a small miracle is revealed, namely something approaching price stability. Adjusted for inflation, prices are in fact rising by only 2.3 percent. If this were the extent of it, the Fed chief could simply blink like an old watchdog and go back to sleep. Instead, he is barking loudly, which is his job. But he has lost his bite, because the Fed’s interest rate policy can do nothing about the scarcity of goods.
Embarrassing Investigation

Some of Bernanke’s personal adversaries are also contributing significantly to his current humiliation. In the past, the chairman of the Federal Reserve was a pope among the priests of the financial elite. But unlike his predecessor Alan Greenspan, Bernanke is finding that his policies are not universally accepted, even within the Fed.

The last seven decisions reached by the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy, were accompanied by a growing number of dissenting votes. Bernanke’s critics say that with his policy of cheap money — in other words, recurring rate reductions — he in fact helped fuel the inflation problem he is now trying to combat.

Another problem for Mr. Dollar is that it will be several months before his actions take effect. Officials with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have informed Bernanke about a plan that would have been unheard-of in the past: a general examination of the US financial system. The IMF’s board of directors has ruled that a so-called Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) is to be carried out in the United States. It is nothing less than an X-ray of the entire US financial system.

As part of the assessment, the Fed, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the major investment banks, mortgage banks and hedge funds will be asked to hand over confidential documents to the IMF team. They will be required to answer the questions they are asked during interviews. Their databases will be subjected to so-called stress tests — worst-case scenarios designed to simulate the broader effects of failures of other major financial institutions or a continuing decline of the dollar.

Under its bylaws, the IMF is charged with the supervision of the international monetary system. Roughly two-thirds of IMF members — but never the United States — have already endured this painful procedure.

For seven years, US President George W. Bush refused to allow the IMF to conduct its assessment. Even now, he has only given the IMF board his consent under one important condition. The review can begin in Bush’s last year in office, but it may not be completed until he has left the White House. This is bad news for the Fed chairman.

When the final report on the risks of the US financial system is released in 2010 — and it is likely to cause a stir internationally — only one of the people in positions of responsiblity today will still be in office: Ben Bernanke.

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

© SPIEGEL ONLINE 2008

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This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008 at 6:16 am and is filed under Business News . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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