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De dalende dollar verandert het spel in 2008
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Bijna deed elk nieuwsnetwerk een verhaal in 2007 over vreemdelingen die aan de staten komen winkelen en investeren, zelfs in onroerende goederen. Wat dwong dit gedrag?
Onder de vele problemen is verwarren Gevoed Voorzitter Ben Bernanke tijdens deze kredietcrisis de regelmatige daling van de V.S. dollar. Hij en Gevoed hebben het federale tarief van het fondsendoel verlaagd, dat nu zich bij 4.25 bevindt, proberend om het lenen door de belangrijkste banken van het land te bevorderen. Maar zoals“ Helikopter Ben” tries to save the credit business, he has put more dollars on the street. With more supply out there, the dollar has lost value, and investors see the possibility higher of inflation or even a currency crisis on the horizon.
Currency exchange works like a see-saw. The U.S. dollar sits on one side and another currency, like the Euro, sits on the other. In a perfectly equal world, the two players would be balanced: one dollar equals one Euro. But this never happens as financial and political conditions tilt the board up and down. So they see-saw. But they never go beyond a certain point. One player cannot shoot herself up into space or propel her friend through the ground. They hit a point where going further would ruin the game.
Let’s say you make Gucci sunglasses in Italy. You don’t want the exchange rate to get to a point where Americans will stop buying your sunglasses. If the Euro gets too expensive, you lose business. This effect creates the see-saw game.
Economists say the U.S. dollar will approach that nadir in 2008. Economist Adolfo Laurenti, of Mesirow Financial Holdings Inc., said the dollar should continue to decline in 2008, but will eventually level off. The U.S. dollar closed at 0.6781 Thursday against the Euro and lost value to many other major currencies in ‘07. Market conditions will tug the dollar back up in the New Year. And there are 20 reasons why the falling dollar is good for Americans.
But, sorry Ben, you can’t sleep soundly yet. The low dollar makes imports more expensive. What’s the most notorious import? Oil. Light, sweet crude broke the $100 a barrel mark on Wednesday. Even the Iowa Caucus could not drown this story. To illustrate the problem, the U.S. imports more oil from Canada than any other country. And in September, the Canadian loonie became more valuable than the U.S. dollar for the first time since 1976.
Why 1976? Oh, right. That oil stuff.
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