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亿万在错过在伊拉克，美国的油。 研究认为
星期一， 2007年5月14日
在100,000和300,000桶之间每天 伊拉克？s宣称石油生产在过去四年是未解释清楚的，并且可能通过腐败或走私被吸出了，根据草稿美国政府报告。 使用平均$50每桶，报告说差误被重视了在$5百万到$15百万每日。 报告不给关于什么的一个结论发生在伊拉克每天抽的大致二百万桶的缺掉分数，但研究结果是否是肯定加强走私贩，叛乱者和腐败官员控制国家的重大部分的耐久怀疑？s石油工业。 报告也包括供选择的解释为亿万美元价值差误，包括可能性伊拉克一贯地夸张它的石油生产。 伊拉克和国务院，报告数字，在不懈的压力显示有形的进展下在伊拉克通过提高生产标准，充分地低于衰弱了三百万桶的美国目标每天。 实际上伊拉克的整个经济依靠油收支。 制图报告，期望在下星期内被发布，由美国准备 政府责任办公室 在政府能量分析员帮助下，和提供了给纽约时代周刊由接受一个发放版本的一个分开的政府机关。 责任办公室拒绝提供拷贝或谈论草稿。 保罗·安徒生，办公室的一位发言人，说仅那？我们笠头？t谈论制图报告。？ 但工作关于能源问题的国务院官员认为有几可能解说为差误，包括油损失通过管道破坏活动和不精确报告生产在南伊拉克，工程师可能不适当地占与油一起在领域抽那里的水。 ？它能也是偷窃， ？ 正式在南部认为，当怀疑跌倒主要什叶派教徒民兵。 ？原油不是一样赚钱的在这个区域象提炼的产品，而是我们？再不排除那或者。？ Iraqi and American officials have previously said that smuggling of refined products like gasoline and kerosene is probably costing Iraq billions of dollars a year in lost revenues. The smuggling of those products is particularly feared because officials believe that a large fraction of the proceeds go to insurgent groups. Crude oil is much more difficult to smuggle because it must be shipped to refineries and turned into the more valuable refined products before it can be sold on the market. The Shiite militia groups hold sway around the rich oil fields of southern Iraq, which dominate the country?s oil production, the State Department official said. For that reason, he said, the Shiite militias are more likely to be involved in theft there than the largely Sunni insurgents, who are believed to benefit mostly from smuggling refined products in the north. In the south, the official said, ?There is not an issue of insurgency, per se, but it could be funding Shia factions, and that could very well be true.? ?That would be a concern if they were using smuggling money to blow up American soldiers or kill Sunnis or do anything that could harm the unity of the country,? the official said. The report by the accountability office is the most comprehensive look yet at faltering American efforts to rebuild Iraq?s oil and electricity sectors. For the analysis of Iraq?s oil production, the accountability office called upon experts at the Energy Information Administration within the United States Department of Energy, which has long experience in analyzing oil production and exports worldwide. Erik Kreil, an oil expert at the information administration who is familiar with the analysis, said a review of industry figures around the world ? exports, refinery figures and other measures ? could not account for all the oil that Iraq says it is producing. The administration also took into account how much crude oil was consumed internally, to do things like fuel Iraqi power plants and refine into gasoline and other products. When all those uses of the oil were taken into consideration, Mr. Kreil said, Iraq?s stated production figures did not add up. ?Either they?re producing less, or they?re producing what they say and the difference is completely unaccounted for in any of the places we think it should go,? Mr. Kreil said. ?Either it?s overly optimistic, or it?s unaccounted for.? Several analysts outside the government agreed that such a large discrepancy indicated that there was either a major smuggling operation in place or that Iraq was incapable to generate accurate production figures. ?That?s a staggering amount of oil to lose every month,? said Philip K. Verleger Jr., an independent economist and oil expert. ?But given everything else that?s been written about Iraq, it?s not a surprise.? Mr. Verleger added that if the oil was being smuggled out of Iraq, there would be a ready market for it, particularly in smaller refineries not controlled by large Western companies in places like China, the Caribbean and even small European countries. The report also contains the most comprehensive assessment yet of the billions of dollars the United States and Iraq spent on rebuilding the oil and electricity infrastructure, which is falling further and further behind its performance goals. Adding together both civilian and military financing, the report concludes that the United States has spent $5.1 billion of the $7.4 billion in American taxpayer money set aside to rebuild the Iraqi electricity and oil sectors. The United States has also spent $3.8 billion of Iraqi money on those sectors, the report says. Despite those enormous expenditures, the performance is far short of official goals, and in some cases seems to be declining further. The average output of Iraq?s national electricity grid in 2006, for example, was 4,300 megawatts, about equal to its value before the 2003 invasion. By February of this year, the figure had fallen still further, to 3,800 megawatts, the report says. All of those figures are far short of the longstanding American goal for Iraq: 6,000 megawatts. Even more dispiriting for Iraqis, by February the grid provided power for an average of only 5.1 hours a day in Baghdad and 8.6 hours nationwide. Both of those figures are also down from last year. The story is similar for the oil sector, where ? even if the Iraqi numbers are correct ? neither exports nor production have met American goals and have also declined since last year, the report says. American reconstruction officials have continued to promote what they describe as successes in the rebuilding program, while saying that problems with security have prevented the program from achieving all of its goals. But federal oversight officials have frequently reported that the program has also suffered from inadequate oversight, poor contracting practices, graft, ineffective management and disastrous initial planning. The discrepancies in the Iraqi oil figures are broadly reminiscent of the ones that turned up when some of the same energy department experts examined Iraq?s oil infrastructure in the wake of the oil-for-food scandals of the Saddam Hussein era. In a United Nations-sponsored program that was supposed to trade Iraq?s oil for food, Mr. Hussein and other smugglers were handsomely profiting from the program, investigations determined. In reports to Congress before the 2003 invasion that ousted Mr. Hussein, the accountability office, using techniques similar to those called into play in its most recent report, determined that in early 2002, for example, 325,000 to 480,000 barrels of crude oil a day were being smuggled out of Iraq, the majority through a pipeline to Syria. But substantial amounts also left Iraq through Jordan and Turkey, and by ship in the Persian Gulf, routes that could also be available today, said Robert Ebel, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. ?Any number of adjacent countries would be glad to have it if they could make some money,? Mr. Ebel said. Mr. Ebel said the lack of modern metering equipment, or measuring devices, at Iraq?s wellheads made it especially difficult to track smuggling there. The State Department official agreed that there were no meters at the wellheads, but said that Iraq?s Oil Ministry had signed a contract with Shell Oil to study the possibility of putting in the meters. The official added that an American-financed project to install meters on Iraq?s main oil platform in the Persian Gulf was scheduled to be completed this month. As sizable as a discrepancy of as much as 300,000 barrels a day would be in most parts of the world, some analysts said it could be expected in a country with such a long, ingrained history of corruption. ?It would be surprising if it was not the case,? said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, which closely follows security and economic issues in Iraq. He added, ?How could the oil sector be the exception?? Have Your Say: Billions in Oil Missing in Iraq, U.S. Study Says Please read our posting guidelines before posting. Alternatively you can discuss this report here. Related News
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