The previously noted surge in the US trade deficit may or may not be due to the iPhone (which either leads to a rise or fall in GDP, depending on which “strategist” is goalseeking their excel model to reality), but the result is clear: Q4 GDP just got slammed. Below is a summary of the Wall Street penguins all of whom had no choice but to revise their Q4 GDPs far lower.
- Goldman Sachs: 1.8% to 1.3%
- JPM: 1.5% to 0.8%
- RBS: 1.5% to 0.7%
- Nomura: 2% to 1.3%
- Last, and least, Deutche Bank’s Joe Lavorgna: unchanged at 1.3%
Look forward to hope being forced to surge even more to offset for this cut by nearly 50% ot the consensus Q4 GDP estimate of 1.5% prior to today. And while we wait for Bloomberg to compile today’s massive downward revision to economic growth, this is how Q4 GDP tracking estimates looked like in the past 6 months before today’s downward revision which will take the consensus line to 1% or under.