The moment the United States removed their nuclear sanctions
on Iran, they slapped new sanctions on Iran, claiming that two Iranian tests
of ballistic missiles that are capable of delivering nuclear warheads violates
Security Council resolutions. The Iranians had no sooner learned that nuclear
sanctions had been removed following the International Atomic Energy Association
(IAEA) announcement that they had verified Iran’s compliance with all of their
obligations under the P5+1 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement
than they learned that new sanctions had been imposed.
The JCPOA commits Iran to not undertaking “any activity related to ballistic
missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons” for a defined
period of time. Iran insists they are in compliance with this requirement because
they say the missiles are designed to carry a conventional payload and deny
that the missiles are capable of being nuclear armed. Iran expert Gareth
Porter has argued that the inclusion of the ballistic missile clause was
a victory for Iran in the first place precisely because “the provision ended
what had been a meaningless ban, because its ballistic missiles were not designed
for nuclear weapons.” The other P5+1 nations seem to agree, as no other P5+1
nation has joined the Americans.
With Iranian elections coming fast upon the lifting of sanctions, the new sanctions
are not likely to do serious harm to President Hassan Rouhani. The lifted sanctions
dwarf the new sanctions, and he can easily claim that the removal of sanctions,
the return of Iranian oil to the market and the freeing of over $100 billion
of frozen Iranian money will provide a huge infusion into the Iranian economy
and improve the lives of Iranians even minus the much smaller new sanctions.
The new sanctions will not cripple Iran’s economy or even touch most Iranians.
They
will affect only a few companies and people who ship the relevant technologies
to Iran.
But the new American sanctions will add volume to the hardline
argument in Tehran. Though they shouldn’t effect Rouhani’s standing with the
people, they may increase the internal challenges he faces. While Obama’s new
sanctions were likely meant to assuage the hardliners who oppose him domestically,
they will likely have the opposite effect on the hardliners who oppose Rouhani.
Rouhani’s hardline opposition will perceive the new sanctions as just the sort
of American deception and trickery that they have been waiting to reveal itself
and as proof of Rouhani’s naïveté in trusting the American negotiators.