Summary Of Key Events In The Coming Week

The week ahead will deliver important data from the US and China. In the US, the focus will be on retail sales and housing starts, as well as on the Philadelphia Fed and U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment surveys. Turning to China, the consensus forecast for China Q4 GDP is 7.8%yoy, while secondary data will come from the country’s IP and FAI data updates.

Monday 14 January

  • India WPI (Dec): GS expects 7.2%yoy. Bloomberg Consensus expects 7.37%yoy. Previous print was 7.24%yoy
  • India CPI (Dec): Previous print was 9.90%yoy
  • Euro area IP (Nov): Bloomberg Consensus expects 0.3%mom. Previous print was -1.4%mom.

Tuesday 15 January

  • Germany GDP 2012: GS expects 1.0%yoy. Bloomberg Consensus expects 0.8%yoy. Previous print was 3.0%yoy
  • UK CPI (Dec): GS expects +2.7%yoy. Bloomberg Consensus expects 2.7%. Previous print was 2.7%yoy.
  • US Empire manufacturing survey: Bloomberg Consensus expects -1.00. Previous print was -8.10.
  • US Retail sales (Dec): GS expects +0.5%mom. Bloomberg Consensus expects 0.2%. Previous print was 0.3%mom.
  • US PPI (Dec): GS expects a flat read, while Bloomberg Consensus expects -0.1%mom. Previous print was -0.8%mom.
  • Also of interest: Singapore retail sales, Philippine remittances.

Wednesday 16 January

  • Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (Jan): Previous reading was 100.
  • Japan machinery orders (Nov): Bloomberg Consensus expects -6.8%yoy. Previous print was 1.2%yoy.
  • US CPI (Dec): Previous print was -0.3%mom. We and consensus expect 0.0%mom this time.
  • US IP (Dec): Previous print was 1.1%mom. We are in line with consensus and forecast a read of 0.3%mom.
  • US Capacity Utilization (Dec): We are slightly above consensus at 78.6%, versus consensus at 78.5%. The last read was 78.4%.
  • Also of interest: US TIC data

Thursday 17 January

  • Australia Employment (Dec): GS Expects +5k. Bloomberg Consensus expects +3.5k. Previous print was 13.9k.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims: Consensus expects 370,000, almost flat from previous read at 371,000.
  • US Philadelphia Fed survey (Jan): We expect a read of +4.0, below consensus expectations at +6.0. Last month’s read was 4.6.

Friday 18 January

  • China GDP (Q4): GS expects 7.9%yoy. Bloomberg Consensus expects 7.8%. Previous print was 7.4%yoy.
  • China IP (Dec): GS expects 9.7%yoy. Bloomberg Consensus expects 10.2%yoy. Previous print was 10.1%yoy.
  • China retail sales (Dec): GS expects 15.2%yoy. Bloomberg Consensus expects 15.1%yoy. Previous print was 14.9%yoy.
  • China FAI (Dec): GS expects 20.4%yoy. Bloomberg Consensus expects 20.7%yoy. Previous print was 20.7%yoy.
  • New Zealand CPI (Q4): GS expects 0.1%qoq. Previous print was 0.3%qoq.
  • UK Retail sales – ex autos (Dec): GS expects +0.2%mom. Bloomberg Consensus expects +0.2%mom. Previous print was 0.1%mom.
  • US U. Michigan Confidence (Jan): GS expects 74.0, up from last month’s 72.9 but below the consensus forecast at 75.0

And a focus solely on Europe:

  • Week starting 14 January: Troika mission to Portugal concludes. For our latest thoughts on Portugal, see separate article in this issue of Focus Europe.
  • 15 January: German 2012 GDP report. As usual, Germany will publish its estimate of GDP growth in 2012 before releasing the Q4 report (due on 14 February). We expect German GDP to have increased 0.8% in real terms in 2012. This assumes a 0.3% qoq contraction in Q4 and that growth in earlier quarters is unrevised.
  • 15 January: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 15 January: Greece auction. Bills.
  • 17 January: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 20 January: Lower Saxony election, Germany. With the federal elections in September/October, the election in Lower Saxony ought to offer the market some insight into political support, in particular for the FDP/Liberals, the junior coalition partner to Merkel’s conservative CDU/CSU. The Liberals have been faring badly in polls at or below the 5% threshold since March 2011. Unless they improve their lot or conservative voters tactically vote for the Liberals to ensure their representation in parliament, they might not enter the next Bundestag. An important milestone is the state election in late January in Lower Saxony, home state of the current Liberal party chairman and minister of the economy, Philipp Rösler. The Liberals must strive to pass the 5% threshold for re-entering the state parliament. If they fail, a 40%-plus result for the Conservative state premier, David McAllister, is unlikely to suffice to keep him in power, with the government then changing to an SPD/Green coalition led by Stephan Weil (SPD). In that case another change in the leadership of the Liberal party and/or a tactical opening to a centre-left government might occur, again adding even more uncertainty to the Liberals’ success at the ballot box.
  • 21 January: Quarterly data on government debt for EMU countries. Data for Q3 2012.

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