AppleSoft: No, It Was Not Different This Time

Back in late August, we presented a chart whose foresight and accuracy turned out to be so spot on, it scared even us. We asked: “With Apple overtaking Microsoft’s ‘peak-market-cap’ and becoming the most ‘valuable’ company ever traded, we thought a reflection on what humans (as opposed to machines programmed by humans) did the last time a world-changing technology company went ubiquitous. Comparing AAPL’s last few years to the run-up in MSFT’s peak in 1999…” Or, in other words, “is it different this time?”

This is the chart we presented five months ago:

Turns out, the answer is, No. It was not different this time. It never is.

This, despite what a certain Jim Cramer said two weeks later, just as the stock hit its all time high:

“Oh, for heaven’s sake, stop trading Apple and start owning it... Is this an average stock with average growth? No, it is among the greatest wealth creators in the world with a vastly superior growth-and-balance sheet. Do you want to flit in and out of Apple to catch the latest review or day’s sale? Or do you want to own a stock that’s just too cheap not be owned, one that money managers all over the country have to own to show that they are in the game or to beat the game going into the fourth quarter. I think owning it has it all over trading it. Nothing I heard yesterday changes my mind.

Here is the same chart as above, updated for what has transpired since:

The chart above also means that there is much more gravity to come for this particular fruit.

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