Ever since the crisis of 2008 Americans have been asking \u2018when will we finally get back to normal?\u2019<\/p>\n
We now have a target date.<\/p>\n
Forget the green shoots of 2009, or the real estate recovery of 2010, the resurgence of minimum wage jobs in 2011, or the stock market records of 2012 and 2013.<\/p>\n
None of those really made a difference for Americans on the ground.<\/p>\n
2014. That\u2019s the new target date.<\/p>\n
CNN reports that\u2019s when things are going to get better according to a growing consensus<\/a> of well respected economists.<\/p>\n But next year, economists foresee a convergence of several factors that could finally kick this recovery into high gear.<\/p>\n First on the list is the federal budget. After epic fights this year over\u00a0the \u201cfiscal cliff,\u201d\u00a0the \u201csequester,\u201d and a bunch of other wonky stuff, lawmakers have finally managed to cobble together enough tax hikes and spending cuts to at least\u00a0stabilize the country\u2019s credit rating.<\/strong><\/p>\n Rising home prices\u00a0are helping, too. Fewer Americans are trapped in underwater mortgages that leave them owing more on their home than the house is worth. Rising prices also boost the net worth of homeowners, adding to consumer confidence.<\/p>\n Businesses have been complaining for years about \u201cuncertainty\u201d in the public policy area. Next year, some of those unknowns will finally be resolved.<\/strong><\/p>\n Companies have held off on hiring because they\u2019re waiting to see how they\u2019ll be affected by\u00a0health care\u00a0and finance reform laws<\/strong>, according to John Silvia, chief economist at\u00a0Wells Fargo. The implementation details of both of those laws will become clearer over the next year.<\/p>\n \u201cDodd-Frank and Obamacare need to be worked out, then employment takes off,\u201d Silvia said.<\/p>\n He believes 2014 \u201ccould be a very good year.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n \u2026<\/p>\n Just how good? Steve Blitz, chief economist at ITG Investment Research, thinks GDP growth in the 3.5% to 4% range is possible for 2014,\u00a0if the global economy doesn\u2019t deteriorate. Monthly job growth could peak in the 300,000 range, he believes.<\/p>\n Blitz anticipates a large numbers of Millennials entering the car-and-home-buying stage of life, giving an added boost to the economy. <\/strong>Plus, the drop in defense spending associated with the draw-down of troops<\/strong> from Iraq and Afghanistan should be largely behind us.<\/p>\n \u201cAll of these should add up to a better economy in 2014<\/strong>,\u201d Blitz said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n So, next year is the year folks!<\/p>\n Finally.<\/p>\n Next year the tax hikes and spending cuts (what?) are going to stabilize our credit rating, because that rating has nothing to do with the trillions of dollars of funny money we\u2019ve been printing at the Fed<\/a>.<\/p>\n Next year businesses will finally start hiring, once Obamacare is in effect, because those extra thousands of dollars in premiums or fines that small business owners will be forced to pay are a boon for the jobs market.<\/p>\n Next year, after we pull our troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan, there will be a drop in defense spending\u2026 except we\u2019re now mobilizing for a war in Syria<\/a>, and possibly Iran.<\/p>\n And, of course, next year the Millennials will be buying cars and homes to add to their iPhone and Xbox collections. And since there are going to be so many high paying retail and restaurant jobs<\/a>\u00a0flowing into the economy, that\u2019s going to drive growth to almost 4% per year, as opposed to the sub 2% we\u2019ve managed to attain through inflationary machinations<\/a>.<\/p>\n Another driver, as CNN also reports<\/a>, is that 76% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, with one in five of our fellow countrymen having less than $100 in savings to deal with emergencies.<\/p>\n\n