{"id":24655,"date":"2013-01-30T13:26:10","date_gmt":"2013-01-30T12:26:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commondreams.org\/view\/2013\/01\/30-5"},"modified":"2013-01-30T13:26:10","modified_gmt":"2013-01-30T12:26:10","slug":"incestuous-amplification-economics-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/rinf.com\/alt-news\/breaking-news\/incestuous-amplification-economics-edition\/","title":{"rendered":"Incestuous Amplification, Economics Edition"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Back during the early days of the Iraq debacle, I learned that the military has a term for how highly dubious ideas become not just accepted, but viewed as certainties. \u201cIncestuous amplification\u201d happen when a closed group of people repeat the same things to each other \u2014 and when accepting the group\u2019s preconceptions itself becomes a necessary ticket to being in the in-group. A fundamentally flawed notion \u2014 say, that the Germans can\u2019t possibly attack though the Ardennes \u2014 becomes part of what everyone knows, where \u201ceveryone\u201d means by definition only people who accept the flawed notion.<\/p>\n

We saw that in the run-up to Iraq, where perfectly obvious propositions \u2014 the case for invading is very weak, the occupation may well be a nightmare \u2014 weren\u2019t so much rejected as ruled out of discussion altogether; if you even considered those possibilities, you weren\u2019t a serious person, no matter what your credentials.<\/p>\n

Which brings me to the fiscal debate, characterized by the particular form of incestuous amplification Greg Sargent<\/a> calls the Beltway Deficit Feedback Loop. I\u2019ve already blogged about<\/a> my Morning Joe appearance and Scarborough\u2019s reaction<\/a>, which was to insist that almost no mainstream economists share my view that deficit fear is vastly overblown. As Joe Weisenthal<\/a> points out, the reality is that among those who have expressed views very similar to mine are the chief economist of Goldman Sachs; the former Treasury secretary and head of the National Economic Council; the former deputy chairman of the Federal Reserve; and the economics editor of the Financial Times. The point isn\u2019t that these people are necessarily right (although they are), it is that Scarborough\u2019s attempt at argument through authority is easily refuted by even a casual stroll through recent economic punditry.<\/p>\n

But these people aren\u2019t part of the in-group, and if they do make it into the in-group\u2019s conversation at all, it\u2019s only by blurring their message<\/a> sufficiently that the in-group doesn\u2019t understand it.<\/p>\n

And at this point, of course, all the Very Serious People have committed their reputations so thoroughly to the official doctrine that they almost literally can\u2019t hear any contrary evidence.<\/p>\n

\u00a9 2012 The New York Times<\/p>\n

\n
\"Paul<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

Paul Krugman is professor of Economics and International Affairs at Princeton University and a regular columnist for The New York Times. Krugman was the 2008 recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics. He is the author of numerous books, including The Conscience of A Liberal<\/a>, The Return of Depression Economics<\/a>, and his most recent, End This Depression Now!<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\n

Back during the early days of the Iraq debacle, I learned that the military has a term for how highly dubious ideas become not just accepted, but viewed as certainties. “Incestuous amplification” happen when a closed group of people repeat the same things to each other – and when accepting the group’s preconceptions itself becomes a necessary ticket to being in the in-group. A fundamentally flawed notion – say, that the Germans can’t possibly attack though the Ardennes – becomes part of what everyone knows, where “everyone” means by definition only people who accept the flawed notion.<\/p>\n

We saw that in the run-up to Iraq, where perfectly obvious propositions – the case for invading is very weak, the occupation may well be a nightmare – weren’t so much rejected as ruled out of discussion altogether; if you even considered those possibilities, you weren’t a serious person, no matter what your credentials.<\/p>\n

Which brings me to the fiscal debate, characterized by the particular form of incestuous amplification Greg Sargent<\/a> calls the Beltway Deficit Feedback Loop. I’ve already blogged about<\/a> my Morning Joe appearance and Scarborough’s reaction<\/a>, which was to insist that almost no mainstream economists share my view that deficit fear is vastly overblown. As Joe Weisenthal<\/a> points out, the reality is that among those who have expressed views very similar to mine are the chief economist of Goldman Sachs; the former Treasury secretary and head of the National Economic Council; the former deputy chairman of the Federal Reserve; and the economics editor of the Financial Times. The point isn’t that these people are necessarily right (although they are), it is that Scarborough’s attempt at argument through authority is easily refuted by even a casual stroll through recent economic punditry.<\/p>\n

But these people aren’t part of the in-group, and if they do make it into the in-group’s conversation at all, it’s only by blurring their message<\/a> sufficiently that the in-group doesn’t understand it.<\/p>\n

And at this point, of course, all the Very Serious People have committed their reputations so thoroughly to the official doctrine that they almost literally can’t hear any contrary evidence.<\/p>\n

© 2012 The New York Times<\/p>\n

\n
\"Paul<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

Paul Krugman is professor of Economics and International Affairs at Princeton University and a regular columnist for The New York Times. Krugman was the 2008 recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics. He is the author of numerous books, including The Conscience of A Liberal<\/a>, The Return of Depression Economics<\/a>, and his most recent, End This Depression Now!<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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