{"id":21247,"date":"2013-01-16T21:20:53","date_gmt":"2013-01-16T20:20:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/feedproxy.google.com\/~r\/zerohedge\/feed\/~3\/jYnm6IHad2o\/story01.htm"},"modified":"2013-01-16T21:20:53","modified_gmt":"2013-01-16T20:20:53","slug":"yet-another-long-term-mean-reversion-chart","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/rinf.com\/alt-news\/breaking-news\/yet-another-long-term-mean-reversion-chart\/","title":{"rendered":"Yet Another Long-Term Mean Reversion Chart"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As the S&P 500 pulls within a few percentage points of its nominal all-time highs, despite macro-uncertainty and micro-delusion, perhaps (as UBS’ Peter Lee notes) a longer-term perspective is warranted. For over 80 years, the S&P 500 (or its proxy) has cyclically reverted to it its logarithmic trend-line growth. The last time the market pulled away from this bullish up-trend was in 1982 (and the previous period of cyclical reversion took 32 years from 1942 to 1974) and suggests the S&P 500 could well revert to around an 850 level within the next year or so<\/strong>. Perhaps Lee (the anti-thesis of JPM’s Tom Lee) needs to read some Birinyi to really understand how to extrapolate?<\/a> Still, an 80-plus year trend-line perhaps offers some color.<\/p>\n

The 80-Year S&P 500 Log Chart Trendline…<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Chart: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n