{"id":208688,"date":"2015-12-14T19:31:19","date_gmt":"2015-12-14T19:31:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rinf.com\/alt-news\/newswire\/will-scarcity-lead-to-anarchy-in-china-as-robert-kaplan-maintains\/"},"modified":"2015-12-14T22:33:25","modified_gmt":"2015-12-14T22:33:25","slug":"will-scarcity-lead-to-anarchy-in-china-as-robert-kaplan-maintains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/rinf.com\/alt-news\/latest-news\/will-scarcity-lead-to-anarchy-in-china-as-robert-kaplan-maintains\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Scarcity Lead to Anarchy in China as Robert Kaplan Maintains?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"Chinese<\/p>\n

Chinese demand, such as for Senegal\u2019s peanuts, fuels the developing world\u2019s prosperity. (Photo: Japan Times)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Renowned American journalist Robert D. Kaplan warned the West that, in the light of the quick deterioration of the arable land quality in interior China due to \u201cdeforestation, loss of topsoil and salinization\u201d, when China\u2019s population has reached \u201c1.54 billion by 2025\u201d, large-scale population movements from villages to cities would be \u201cleading to a crime rate surge like the one in Africa and to growing regional disparities and conflicts in a land \u2026 as in Africa\u201d <\/span>[Note 1]<\/span>. It is obviously more worrisome than the mainstream economists\u2019 concern that China is unable to bypass the \u2018middle income trap\u2019 <\/span>[Note 2]<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alongside this \u2018middle income trap\u2019 as a watershed between the rich and the poor, Kaplan highlighted \u201ca bifurcated world\u201d between the West and the Rest. \u201cPart of the globe is inhabited by Hegel\u2019s and Fukuyama\u2019s Last Man, healthy, well fed, and pampered by technology. The other, larger, part is inhabited by Hobbes\u2019 First Man, condemned to a life that is \u2018poor, nasty, brutish, and short\u2019.\u201d Since \u201c95 percent of the population increase will be in the poorest regions of the world\u201d, \u201cthe revenge of the poor\u201d would strike the civilized and advanced West. \u201cFuture wars will be those of communal survival, aggravated or, in many cases, caused by environmental scarcity\u201d <\/span>[Note 3]<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yes, the end of China\u2019s \u2018one-child policy\u2019 will inevitably further stress the environment as this nation\u2019s population was lately estimated to reach and peak at 1.46 billion by 2035 <\/span>[Note 4]<\/span>, up from 1.37 billion now. However, China and most developing countries ranging from India to Chile and Ethiopia have been on a steady track towards stability and prosperity not by intrusion upon the West\u2019s privileges and spheres, but by a new form of self-reliance. <\/span><\/p>\n

Except for coffee bean and cocoa, the Western countries import very little agricultural produce from the Third World and somehow their direct investments in the irrigation infrastructure there and provision of new farming techniques \u00a0were very limited in the 20<\/span>th<\/span> century. Since the new millennium, the Chinese hunger for foods has dramatically changed the economic dynamics in Africa and South America. One simple story can illustrate this transformation \u2013 peanuts in the tiny African state Senegal \u201cis becoming \u2018gold\u2019 for farmers \u2026. \u2018This is the first time that peanut prices have reached this level and it is thanks to the Chinese\u2019 \u2026\u2026 Peanuts \u2026 as the main cash crop in Senegal, providing jobs for 60 percent of the population\u201d <\/span>[Note 5]<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s role in pulling the world\u2019s underclass out of poverty is that, with its large and better educated population, it is speeding up the money velocity at an unprecedented level that it works more efficiently and effectively than the Western humanitarian aids to help the Third World develop. Simply speaking, by producing electronic devices and household items at low labor cost for the West, the Chinese sweatshop workers earn lots of US dollars but still they cannot afford the premium quality of the US produce in general and the peanuts grown in former President Jimmy Carter\u2019s Georgia in particular. The Chinese consumers then turn to Senegal for ordinary grade peanuts and in return they sell the Africans the Chinese brands of phones and telecommunication network systems which are much cheaper than the American, European and Japanese models. When 1.3 billion Chinese consumers suddenly come into the African market to buy peanuts, new and stable demands drive production up, and the high transaction volume stirs up the money velocity within the Third World. \u00a0The more turnover a unit of money is used to buy something, the greater its velocity will be, and the quicker the economy grows but without inflation because of low wage, low rent and also low interest rate (to the credit of the Federal Reserve) <\/span>[Note 6]<\/span>. In the wake of the recent mild slowdown, China\u2019s new child policy will slightly increase its population size to a new optimal level that can keep on running the fire engine for the growths of developing countries who all are seeking for better education for literacy and training for modern aqua- and agri- cultural skills.<\/span><\/p>\n

Certainly, our Mother Nature is worried. To solve its own food shortage problem, for example, Chinese research on hybrid rice has been making breakthroughs repetitively since the 1970s. The rice yield jumped from 46 kg in 1999 to 60kg in 2011, and hopefully hit 66kg soon. Poorly endowed with less than 10% of the global arable land, China is able to feed 20% of the population on Earth. Hybrid rice is now being grown in more than 30 countries including the Philippines, Brazil, Ecuador and Guinea <\/span>[Note 7]<\/span>. \u00a0\u00a0The latest China-FAO (UN) teamwork is to transfer 25 new farming technologies on hybrid rice and other crops to small-scale farmers in Uganda, through a South-South Cooperation (SSC) agreement in Sept 2015 <\/span>[Note 8]<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Having brought down the mainland poverty rate sharply from 85% in 1981 to 7% in 2012, Beijing\u2019s next goal is to lift the remaining 70.14 million peasants in rural areas all up above the Chinese poverty line of earning USD376 a year by the end of 2020 <\/span>[Note 9]<\/span>, and also turn other Third World peoples into skilled laborers as well as consumers for the Chinese goods and services. Ethiopia, where around one million people died during its famine in 1983-5, recorded a 10.3% growth rate for 2013\/14 and has been ranked by the IMF as one of the five fastest growing economies in the world, thanks to Western aid and also China\u2019s support of Ethiopia\u2019s \u201cgreat vision to become Africa\u2019s manufacturing powerhouse\u201d <\/span>[Note 10]<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

No, the increasing headcounts in the developing countries are not turning the world into anarchy.<\/span> The World Bank data has solidly shown what was taking place simultaneously when the population grew by more than 1 billion \u2013 \u201cin 2012, 12.7 percent of the world population lived at or below $1.90 a day \u2026 \u00a0down from 37 percent in 1990 and 44 percent in 1981\u201d <\/span>[Note 11]<\/span>. Despite being annoyed by some militias here and there like Boko Haram in Nigeria, al-Shabab in Kenya or the Haqqani network in Pakistan, many formerly underdeveloped nations are going towards stability and prosperity steadily.<\/span><\/p>\n

Shift of the wasteful consumption paradigm worldwide plus innovations for crops, energy and garbage are what the mankind as a whole should do to alleviate our damage to the Nature. The \u2018two-worlds\u2019 thesis between the \u2018Last Man\u2019 and \u201cFirst Man\u2019 has its own grounds and objectivity, but using this theme to \u2018barbarize\u2019 the non-Western world <\/span>[Note 12]<\/span> can achieve nothing except leading the Western public and politicians to the wrong direction \u2013 wars.<\/span><\/p>\n

[Note 1]<\/span><\/p>\n

See p. 25-6 in Robert D. Kaplan (2000), \u201cThe Coming Anarchy: Shattering the dreams of the Post Cold War\u201d, Random House: New York.<\/span><\/p>\n

[Note 2]<\/span><\/p>\n

There are many discussions on this topic. \u00a0\u00a0Here is an example:<\/span><\/p>\n

The Economist,<\/em> \u201cChina\u2019s economy: the middle-income trap\u201d, Apr 5, 2011. <\/span>http:\/\/www.economist.com\/blogs\/freeexchange\/2011\/04\/chinas_economy<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

[Note 3]<\/span><\/p>\n

See p. 24, 22 and 49 in Robert D. Kaplan (2000), \u201cThe Coming Anarchy: Shattering the dreams of the Post Cold War\u201d, Random House: New York.<\/span><\/p>\n

[Note 4]<\/span><\/p>\n

CNN, \u201cChina\u2019s one-child policy to end\u201d, Oct 30, 2015. <\/span>http:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2015\/10\/29\/asia\/china-one-child-policy\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

[Note 5]<\/span><\/p>\n

Modern Ghana, \u201cAFP: Chinese appetite makes peanuts the new \u2018gold\u2019 in Senegal\u201d, March 24, 2013. <\/span>http:\/\/www.modernghana.com\/news\/454531\/1\/chinese-appetite-makes-peanuts-the-new-gold-in-sen.html<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

[Note 6]<\/span><\/p>\n

It is a monetary economic theory. \u00a0Here is a reference:<\/span><\/p>\n

National Center for Policy Analysis, Robert McTeer, \u201cEconomic Growth without inflation\u201d, March 9, 2007.<\/span>
<\/span>http:\/\/www.ncpa.org\/pub\/ba582<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

[Note 7]<\/span><\/p>\n

Far Eastern Agriculture, \u201cChina\u2019s hybrid rice to create world record in 2014\u201d, May 23, 2014. <\/span>http:\/\/www.fareasternagriculture.com\/crops\/agriculture\/china-s-hybrid-rice-to-create-world-record-in-2014<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Wikipedia, \u201cYuan Longping\u201d \u2013 father of hybrid rice.<\/span>
<\/span>https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Yuan_Longping<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

UN Food and Agriculture Organization, \u201cHybrid rice for food security\u201d, 2004.<\/span>
<\/span>http:\/\/www.fao.org\/rice2004\/en\/f-sheet\/factsheet6.pdf<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

[Note 8]<\/span><\/p>\n

UN Food and Agriculture Organization, \u201cFAO and China: Uganda\u201d, Sep 25, 2015.<\/span>
<\/span>http:\/\/www.fao.org\/news\/story\/en\/item\/331903\/icode\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

[Note 9]<\/span><\/p>\n

India.com, \u201cChina\u2019s 2020 poverty alleviation goal attainable: Xi Jinping\u201d, Nov 3, 2015.<\/span>
<\/span>http:\/\/www.india.com\/news\/world\/chinas-2020-poverty-alleviation-goal-attainable-xi-jinping-679216\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

[Note 10]<\/span><\/p>\n

African Development Bank Group, \u201cEthiopia Economic Outlook\u201d, 2015.<\/span>
<\/span>http:\/\/www.afdb.org\/en\/countries\/east-africa\/ethiopia\/ethiopia-economic-outlook\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Bloomberg, \u201cEthiopia becomes China\u2019s China in search for cheap labor\u201d, July 23, 2014.<\/span>
<\/span>http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2014-07-22\/ethiopia-becomes-china-s-china-in-search-for-cheap-labor<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

[Note 11]<\/span><\/p>\n

The World Bank, \u201cPoverty: overview\u201d.<\/span>
<\/span>http:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/topic\/poverty\/overview<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

[Note 12]<\/span><\/p>\n

See p.129 in Mark B. Salter (2002), \u201cBarbarians and Civilization in International Relations\u201d, Pluto Press: London, Sterling, Virginia.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

This piece was reprinted from Foreign Policy In Focus<\/a> by RINF Alternative News<\/a> with permission. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Chinese demand, such as for Senegal\u2019s peanuts, fuels the developing world\u2019s prosperity. (Photo: Japan Times) Renowned American journalist Robert D. Kaplan warned the West that, in the light of the quick deterioration of the arable land quality in interior China due to \u201cdeforestation, loss of topsoil and salinization\u201d, when China\u2019s population has reached \u201c1.54 billion […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":208689,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[519,18],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-208688","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-newswire","8":"category-latest-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/rinf.com\/alt-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/rinf.com\/alt-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/rinf.com\/alt-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/rinf.com\/alt-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/rinf.com\/alt-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=208688"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/rinf.com\/alt-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208688\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/rinf.com\/alt-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/208689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/rinf.com\/alt-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=208688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/rinf.com\/alt-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=208688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/rinf.com\/alt-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=208688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}