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White House Leak: Cheney’s Plan for Iran Attack白宮洩漏：切尼的計劃，伊朗攻擊 Sunday, October 28th, 2007 週日， 2007年10月28日 High-ranking military experts say an attack would lead to world economic chaos, or even what Bush calls ‘World War III.’高級軍事專家說，攻擊將導致世界經濟混亂，或什至是什麼，布什呼籲'第三次世界大戰。 By通過 Gregor Peter Schmitz格雷戈爾•彼得施密茨 and和 Cordula Meyer cordula邁耶 , ， Der Spiegel明鏡周刊 US Vice President Dick Cheney — the power behind the throne, the eminence grise , the man with the (very) occasional grandfatherly smile — is notorious for his propensity for secretiveness and behind-the-scenes manipulation.美國副總統切尼-權力背後的寶座，地位g rise，該名男子與（非常）偶爾g randfatherly微笑-是惡名昭彰，他傾向為s e cretiveness和幕後操控。 He’s capable of anything, say friends as well as enemies.他的能力的話，說的朋友，以及敵人。 Given this reputation, it’s no big surprise that Cheney has already asked for a backroom analysis of how a war with Iran might begin.鑑於這種聲譽，它的沒有太大的驚喜，切尼已要求為幕後分析如何與伊朗的戰爭可能要開始。 In the scenario concocted by Cheney’s strategists, Washington’s first step would be to convince Israel to fire missiles at Iran’s uranium enrichment plant in Natanz.在該情況下炮製的切尼的戰略家，華盛頓的第一步將是說服以色列發射導彈在伊朗的鈾濃縮廠在納坦茲。 Tehran would retaliate with its own strike, providing the US with an excuse to attack military targets and nuclear facilities in Iran.伊朗將採取報復與自己的大罷工，提供了美國為藉口，攻擊軍事目標和核設施在伊朗的工作。 This information was leaked by an official close to the vice president.這方面的資料被洩露的一份正式關閉，以副總統。 Cheney himself hasn’t denied engaging in such war games.切尼本人也沒有否認，從事這種戰爭遊戲。 For years, in fact, he’s been open about his opinion that an attack on Iran, a member of US President George W. Bush’s “Axis of Evil,” is inevitable.多年來，在事實上，他一直持開放態度，他認為，一對伊朗發動攻擊的一員，美國總統布什的“邪惡軸心國”是無可避免的。 Given these not-too-secret designs, Democrats and Republicans alike have wondered what to make of the still mysterious Israeli bombing run in Syria on Sept. 6.鑑於這些不太遠的秘密設計，民主黨人和共和黨人都想知道有什麼作出的仍是神秘的以色列轟炸運行在敘利亞， 9月6日。 Was it part of an existing war plan?是它的一部分，現有的戰爭計劃？ A test run, perhaps?試運行，或許？ For days after the attack, one question dominated conversation at Washington receptions: How great is the risk of war, really?幾天後的攻擊，一個問題，佔主導地位的談話在華盛頓接待：如何偉大，是戰爭的風險，真的嗎？ Grandiose Plans, East and West 宏偉的計劃，東部和西部 In the September strike, Israeli bombers were likely targeting a nuclear reactor under construction, parts of which are alleged to have come from North Korea.在9月罷工，以色列轟炸機有可能針對一個核反應堆正在施工，部分被指控有來自北韓。 It is possible that key secretaries in the Bush cabinet even tried to stop Israel.它可能是關鍵的司級官員在布什內閣甚至試圖阻止以色列。 To this day, the administration has neither confirmed nor commented on the attack.這一天，政府既沒有證實也沒有評論上的攻擊。 Nevertheless, in Washington, Israel’s strike against Syria has revived the specter of war with Iran.不過，在華盛頓，以色列的打擊，敘利亞復興的幽靈與伊朗的戰爭。 For the neoconservatives it could represent a glimmer of hope that the grandiose dream of a democratic Middle East has not yet been buried in the ashes of Iraq.為新保守派它可以代表了一線希望宏偉的夢想，一個民主的中東至今仍未被埋葬在灰燼伊拉克。 But for realists in the corridors of the State Department and the Pentagon, military action against Iran is a nightmare they have sought to avert by asking a simple question: “What then?”但對於現實主義者，在走廊裡，美國國務院和五角大樓，對伊朗採取軍事行動是一場噩夢，他們已設法避免問一個簡單的問題： “什麼，然後” ？ The Israeli strike, or something like it, could easily mark the beginning of the “World War III,” which President Bush warned against last week.以色列大罷工，或類似的東西，很可能開始的標誌“第三次世界大戰” ，布什總統警告不要在上星期。 With his usual apocalyptic rhetoric, he said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could lead the region to a new world war if his nation builds a nuclear bomb.與他一貫的世界末日的言論，他說，伊朗總統艾哈邁迪內賈德可能會導致該地區一個新的世界戰爭，如果他的國家，建立了核彈。 Conditions do look ripe for disaster.條件不看的時機已經成熟災難。 Iran continues to acquire and develop the fundamental prerequisites for a nuclear weapon.伊朗繼續收購和發展的基本前提核武器。 The mullah regime receives support — at least moral support, if not technology — from a newly strengthened Russia, which these days reaches for every chance to provoke the United States.該毛拉政權獲得支持-至少在道義上的支持，如果沒有技術-從一個新的加強，俄羅斯，這些天，達到為每一個機會挑起美國。 President Vladimir Putin’s own (self-described) “grandiose plan” to restore Russia’s armed forces includes a nuclear buildup.俄羅斯總統普京的自己（自我描述）的“宏偉計劃” ，以恢復俄羅斯的武裝力量，包括核建設。 The war in Iraq continues to drag on without an end in sight or even an opportunity for US troops to withdraw in a way that doesn’t smack of retreat.在伊拉克戰爭繼續拖下去，沒有結束的跡象，甚至有機會為美軍撤回在一個方式，這並不smack的撤退。 In Afghanistan, NATO troops are struggling to prevent a return of the Taliban and al-Qaida terrorists.在阿富汗，北約部隊中掙扎，以防止返回的塔利班和基地組織的恐怖分子。 The Palestinian conflict could still reignite on any front.巴勒斯坦衝突仍然可以reignite對任何方面。 In Washington, Bush has 15 months left in office.在華盛頓，布什已在15個月留在辦公室。 He may have few successes to show for himself, but he’s already thinking of his legacy.他可能有幾個成功的，以顯示自己，但他的思想已經他的遺產。 Bush says he wants diplomacy to settle the nuclear dispute with Tehran, and hopes international pressure will finally convince Ahmadinejad to come to his senses.布什說，他希望外交解決核爭端與伊朗，並希望國際壓力將最終說服內賈德來他的感官。 Nevertheless, the way pressure has been building in Washington, preparations for war could be underway.不過，方式的壓力，已建立在華盛頓，戰爭準備，可進行中。 In late September, the US Senate voted to declare the 125,000-man Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization.在9月下旬，美國參議院表決申報12.5萬人的伊朗革命衛隊一個恐怖組織。 High-ranking US generals have accused Iran of waging a “proxy war” against the United States through its support of Shiite militias in Iraq.高級將領，美國指責伊朗打一場“代理戰爭”對美國通過其支持的什葉派民兵在伊拉克。 And strategists at the Pentagon, apparently at Cheney’s request, have developed detailed plans for an attack against Tehran.和戰略家在五角大樓，顯然是在切尼的要求，已制定了詳細的計劃，攻擊德黑蘭。 Instead of the previous scenario of a large-scale bombardment of the country’s many nuclear facilities, the current emphasis is, once again, on so-called surgical strikes, primarily against the quarters of the Revolutionary Guards.而不是以前的情況，一個大型的轟炸該國的許多核設施，目前的重點是，再次對所謂外科手術式打擊，主要是對四分之三的革命衛隊。 This sort of attack would be less massive than a major strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.這種攻擊會減少，大規模的比重大打擊伊朗的核設施。 Conservative think tanks and pundits who sense this could be their last chance to implement their agenda in the Middle East have supported and disseminated such plans in the press.保守的智囊團和專家們誰意識，這可能是他們最後的機會，以落實他們的議程，在中東都支持和傳播，例如計劃在報章上。 Despite America’s many failures in Iraq, these hawks have urged the weakened president to act now, accusing him of having lost sight of his principal agenda and no longer daring to apply his own doctrine of pre-emptive strikes.儘管美國的許多失敗的在伊拉克，這些鷹派已促請削弱總統現在就採取行動，指控他有拋諸腦後，他的主要議程和不再敢於申請自己的學說先發製人打擊。 Sheer Lunacy? 純粹lunacy ？ The notion of war with Iran has spilled over into other circles, too.概念與伊朗的戰爭已蔓延到其他各界，太。 Last Monday Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic Speaker of the US House of Representatives, made it clear that the president would first need Congressional approval to launch an attack.上週一佩洛西，民主黨議長，美國國會眾議院，作出明確表示，立法會主席首先需要國會的批准，以發動攻擊。 Meanwhile, Republican candidates for the White House have debated whether they would even allow such details to get in their way.與此同時，共和黨候選人為白宮辯論是否他們甚至會允許這樣的細節，以獲得他們的方式。 Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney said he would consult his attorneys to determine whether the US Constitution does, in fact, require a president to ask for Congressional approval before going to war.前馬薩諸塞州總督手套羅姆尼表示，他將徵詢他的律師，以確定是否美國憲法沒有，事實上，要求總統要求國會批准之前，前往戰爭。 Vietnam veteran John McCain said war with Iran was “maybe closer to reality than we are discussing tonight.”越戰老兵約翰麥凱恩說與伊朗的戰爭是“也許更接近於現實比我們所討論的今晚” 。 Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton has also adopted a hawkish stance, voting in favor of the Senate measure to classify the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization.民主黨領先希拉里還通過了一項強硬的立場，投票，贊成的參議院措施，以分類革命衛隊作為一個恐怖組織。 Her rivals criticized Clinton for giving the administration a blank check to go to war.她的對手批評克林頓給政府空白支票去戰爭。 The US military is building a base in Iraq less than 10 kilometers (about six miles) from Iran’s border.美國軍方正在建設一個基地，在伊拉克的不到10公里（約六英里）由伊朗的邊境。 The facility, known as Combat Outpost Shocker, is meant for American soldiers preventing Iranian weapons from being smuggled into Iraq.該設施，被稱為作戰的前哨shocker ，是指為美國大兵防止伊朗武器正被偷運到伊拉克。 But it’s also rumored that Bush authorized US intelligence agencies in April to run sabotage missions against the mullah regime on Iranian soil.但它也有傳言說，布什授權美國情報機構在4月運行，破壞特派團對毛拉政權對伊朗的土壤。 Gary Sick is an expert on Iran who served as a military adviser under three presidents.程介南生病是一個專家對伊朗誰充當軍事顧問下，三位總統。 He believes that such preparations mark a significant shift in the government’s strategy.他認為，這樣的準備，馬克的重大轉變，政府的策略。 “Since August,” says Sick, “the emphasis is no longer on the Iranian nuclear threat,” but on Iran’s support for terrorism in Iraq. “自8月以來，說： ”生病了， “我們強調的是不再對伊朗的核威脅” ，但對伊朗的對恐怖主義的支持在伊拉克。 “This is a complete change and is potentially dangerous.” “這是一個徹底的改變，是有潛在危險的” 。 It would be relatively easy for Bush to prove that Tehran, by supporting insurgents in Iraq, is responsible for the deaths of American soldiers.它會比較容易為布什證明德黑蘭，支持伊拉克的反叛分子，負責為死亡的美軍士兵。 It might be harder to prove that Iran’s nuclear plans pose an immediate threat to the world.它可能會加倍努力，證明伊朗的核計劃構成即時威脅到世界。 Besides, the nuclear argument is reminiscent of an embarrassing precedent, when the Bush administration used the claim that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction — which he didn’t — as a reason to invade Iraq.此外，核論點是想起一個尷尬的先例，當布什政府用聲稱薩達姆擁有大規模殺傷性武器-他沒有-為理由入侵伊拉克。 Even if the evidence against Tehran proves to be more damning, the American public will find it difficult to swallow this argument again.即使對德黑蘭的證據證明，以更嚴厲，美國公眾將難以吞下這個論點。 The forces urging a diplomatic resolution also look stronger than they were before Iraq.的力量，敦促通過外交途徑解決還期待更強的比以前伊拉克。 Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice wants the next step to be a third round of even tighter sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council.美國國務卿賴斯希望下一步要了第三輪，甚至更嚴格的對伊朗的制裁在聯合國安理會。 Rice has powerful allies at the Pentagon: Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Admiral William Fallon, head of US Central Command, which is responsible for American forces throughout the region.水稻，具有強大的盟國在五角大樓：國防部長羅伯特蓋茨和海軍上將威廉法倫，主管美國中央司令部，負責美軍在整個地區。 Rice and her cohorts all favor diplomacy, partly because they know the military is under strain.賴斯和她的人群都贊成外交，這部分是因為他們知道軍隊是根據應變。 After four years in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US lacks manpower for another major war, especially one against a relatively well-prepared adversary. 4年後在伊拉克和阿富汗，美國缺乏人手的又一重大戰爭，尤其是一對較為充分準備的對手。 “For many senior people at the Pentagon, the CIA and the State Department, a war would be sheer lunacy,” says security expert Sick. “對於許多資深的人在五角大樓，中情局和美國國務院，戰爭將是純粹的lunacy ，說： ”安全專家生病。 Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and now a Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution, agrees.布魯斯里德爾，前中情局官員和現在一中東問題專家在布魯金斯學會的同意。 A war against Tehran would be “a disaster for the entire world,” says Riedel, who worries about a “battlefield extending from the Mediterranean to the Indian subcontinent.” Nevertheless, he believes there is a “realistic risk of a military conflict,” because both sides look willing to carry things to the brink.戰爭對德黑蘭將是“一場災難，整個世界，說： ”里德爾，誰的憂慮“戰場擴大，從地中海到印度次大陸。 ”不過，他認為有一個“現實的危險的軍事衝突， ”因為雙方看願意進行的事情的邊緣。 On the one hand, says Riedel, Iran is playing with fire, challenging the West by sending weapons to Shiite insurgents in Iraq.在一方面，里德爾說，伊朗是玩火，富有挑戰性的西派遣武器的什葉派叛亂分子在伊拉克。 On the other hand, hotheads in Washington are by no means powerless.在另一方面， hotheads在華盛頓是絕不無能為力的。 Although many neoconservative hawks have left the Bush administration, Cheney remains their reliable partner.雖然有很多新保守主義鷹派已離開布什政府，切尼仍然是可靠的合作夥伴。 “The vice president is the closest adviser to the president, and a dominant figure,” says Riedel. “副總統是最親密的顧問主席，並主導的數字，說： ”里德爾。 “One shouldn’t underestimate how much power he still wields.” “一個不應該低估多少權力，他仍然擁有” 。 ‘Is it 1938 Again?’ '是它1938年再次呢？ Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Tehran last week also played into the hands of hardliners in Washington, who read it as proof that Putin isn’t serious about joining the West’s effort to convince Tehran to abandon its drive for a nuclear weapon.俄羅斯總統普京的訪問德黑蘭上週也發揮到手中的強硬派在華盛頓，誰讀它作為證明，普京並不嚴重，加入西方的努力，以說服德黑蘭放棄其驅動器為核武器。 Moreover, the countries bordering the Caspian Sea, including Central Asian nations Washington has courted energetically in recent years, have said they would not allow a war against Tehran to be launched from their territory.此外，周邊國家對里海，包括中亞各國華盛頓已經courted大力在近年來，已表示，他們不會允許戰爭對德黑蘭即將展開，從他們的領土。 Cheney derives much of his support from hawks outside the administration who fear their days are as numbered as the President’s.切尼源於他的大部分支持從鷹派政府以外的誰害怕他們的天是編號為主席的。 “The neocons see Iran as their last chance to prove something,” says analyst Riedel. “新保守主義者看到伊朗作為他們的最後一次機會，來證明的東西，說： ”分析師里德爾。 This aim is reflected in their tone.這個目標是反映在他們的語調。 Conservative columnist Norman Podhoretz, for example — a father figure to all neocons — wrote in the Wall Street Journal that he “hopes and prays” that Bush will finally bomb Iran.保守的專欄作家諾曼podhoretz ，例如-一個父親的數字，向所有新保守主義者-寫在華爾街日報說，他“希望和祈禱”，布什將最後轟炸伊朗。 Podhoretz sees the United States engaged in a global war against “Islamofascism,” a conflict he defines as World War IV, and he likens Iran to Nazi Germany. podhoretz認為，美國在從事一場全球戰爭反對“ islamofascism ， ”衝突，他定義為第四次世界大戰，他likens伊朗納粹德國。 “Is it 1938 again?” he asks in a speech he repeats regularly at conferences. “是1938年再次？ ”他問在一次講話中重複了他經常在各種會議。 Podhoretz is by no means an eccentric outsider. podhoretz絕不是一個古怪的局外人。 He now serves as a senior foreign-policy adviser to Republican presidential candidate Rudolph Giuliani.他目前擔任的一名高級外交政策顧問，共和黨總統候選人的魯道夫朱利安尼。 President Bush has also met with Podhoretz at the White House to hear his opinions.美國總統布什還會見了podhoretz在白宮聽取他的意見。 Nevertheless, most experts in Washington warn against attacking Tehran.不過，多數專家在華盛頓發出警告，反對攻擊伊朗。 They assume the Iranians would retaliate.他們假定，伊朗人會報復。 “It would be foolish to believe surgical strikes will be enough,” says Riedel, who believes that precision attacks would quickly escalate to war. “這將是愚蠢到相信，外科手術式打擊將是不夠的，說： ”里德爾，誰認為精確打擊將迅速升級為戰爭。 Former presidential adviser Sick thinks Iran would strike back with terrorist attacks.前總統顧問病假認為，伊朗將反擊恐怖襲擊。 “The generals of the Revolutionary Guard have had several years to think about asymmetrical warfare,” says Sick. “將軍的革命衛隊已在數年想一想，非對稱作戰，說： ”生病。 “They probably have a few rather interesting ideas.” “他們大概有幾個，而不是有趣的想法” 。 According to Sick, detonating well-placed bombs at oil terminals in the Persian Gulf would be enough to wreak havoc.據生病了，引爆以及放置炸彈在石油碼頭和在波斯灣活動將足以肆虐。 “Insurance costs would skyrocket, causing oil prices to triple and triggering a global recession,” Sick warns. “保險費用將猛漲，造成石油價格的三倍，並引發全球經濟衰退， ”病態警告。 “The economic consequences would be enormous, far greater than anything we have experienced with Iraq so far.” “經濟後果將是巨大的，遠遠大於任何我們所經歷的與伊拉克至今” 。 Because the catastrophic consequences of an attack on Iran are obvious, many in Washington have a fairly benign take on the current round of saber rattling.因為災難性的後果，一個對伊朗發動攻擊是顯而易見的，許多在華盛頓有相當的良性採取對當前一輪的軍刀劇烈震動。 They believe the sheer dread of war is being used to bolster diplomatic efforts to solve the crisis and encourage hesitant members of the United Nations Security Council to take more decisive action.他們相信，純粹是恐懼的戰爭正在被用來加強外交努力來解決危機，並鼓勵猶豫不決的成員對聯合國安理會採取更果斷的行動。 The Security Council, this argument goes, will be more likely to approve tighter sanctions if it believes that war is the only alternative.安理會，這種說法有雲，將更有可能通過更嚴格的制裁，如果它認為，戰爭是唯一的選擇。 See More: 看到更多的： Iran 伊朗 USA News 美國新聞Have Your Say: White House Leak: Cheney’s Plan for Iran Attack 你說：白宮洩漏 ： 切尼的計劃，伊朗攻擊 Please note, only selected comments will be published.請注意，只有選定的評論將出版。 Or discuss this report in our new forums 或討論這個報告在我們的新論壇 This entry was posted on Sunday, October 28th, 2007 at 6:46 pm and is filed under 此項目被張貼在週日， 2007年10月28日在下午6時46分，並提交下 War & Terrorism News 戰爭和恐怖主義新聞 . 。 You can follow any responses to this entry through the 您可以按照任何的反應，此項目通過 RSS 2.0 2.0 feed. 餵養。 You can 您可以 leave a response 留下的回應 , or ，或 trackback Trackback跟踪 from your own site. 從你自己的網站。 | Translations 翻譯               Free Newsletter 免費通訊 Related News 相關新聞
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