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White House Leak: Cheney’s Plan for Iran Attack白宫泄漏：切尼的计划，伊朗攻击 Sunday, October 28th, 2007 周日， 2007年10月28日 High-ranking military experts say an attack would lead to world economic chaos, or even what Bush calls ‘World War III.’高级军事专家说，攻击将导致世界经济混乱，或什至是什么，布什呼吁'第三次世界大战。 By通过 Gregor Peter Schmitz格雷戈尔•彼得施密茨 and和 Cordula Meyer cordula迈耶 , ， Der Spiegel明镜周刊 US Vice President Dick Cheney — the power behind the throne, the eminence grise , the man with the (very) occasional grandfatherly smile — is notorious for his propensity for secretiveness and behind-the-scenes manipulation.美国副总统切尼-权力背后的宝座，地位g rise，该名男子与（非常）偶尔g randfatherly微笑-是恶名昭彰，他倾向为s e cretiveness和幕后操控。 He’s capable of anything, say friends as well as enemies.他的能力的话，说的朋友，以及敌人。 Given this reputation, it’s no big surprise that Cheney has already asked for a backroom analysis of how a war with Iran might begin.鉴于这种声誉，它的没有太大的惊喜，切尼已要求为幕后分析如何与伊朗的战争可能要开始。 In the scenario concocted by Cheney’s strategists, Washington’s first step would be to convince Israel to fire missiles at Iran’s uranium enrichment plant in Natanz.在该情况下炮制的切尼的战略家，华盛顿的第一步将是说服以色列发射导弹在伊朗的铀浓缩厂在纳坦兹。 Tehran would retaliate with its own strike, providing the US with an excuse to attack military targets and nuclear facilities in Iran.伊朗将采取报复与自己的大罢工，提供了美国为借口，攻击军事目标和核设施在伊朗的工作。 This information was leaked by an official close to the vice president.这方面的资料被泄露的一份正式关闭，以副总统。 Cheney himself hasn’t denied engaging in such war games.切尼本人也没有否认，从事这种战争游戏。 For years, in fact, he’s been open about his opinion that an attack on Iran, a member of US President George W. Bush’s “Axis of Evil,” is inevitable.多年来，在事实上，他一直持开放态度，他认为，一对伊朗发动攻击的一员，美国总统布什的“邪恶轴心国”是无可避免的。 Given these not-too-secret designs, Democrats and Republicans alike have wondered what to make of the still mysterious Israeli bombing run in Syria on Sept. 6.鉴于这些不太远的秘密设计，民主党人和共和党人都想知道有什么作出的仍是神秘的以色列轰炸运行在叙利亚， 9月6日。 Was it part of an existing war plan?是它的一部分，现有的战争计划？ A test run, perhaps?试运行，或许？ For days after the attack, one question dominated conversation at Washington receptions: How great is the risk of war, really?几天后的攻击，一个问题，占主导地位的谈话在华盛顿接待：如何伟大，是战争的风险，真的吗？ Grandiose Plans, East and West 宏伟的计划，东部和西部 In the September strike, Israeli bombers were likely targeting a nuclear reactor under construction, parts of which are alleged to have come from North Korea.在9月罢工，以色列轰炸机有可能针对一个核反应堆正在施工，部分被指控有来自北韩。 It is possible that key secretaries in the Bush cabinet even tried to stop Israel.它可能是关键的司级官员在布什内阁甚至试图阻止以色列。 To this day, the administration has neither confirmed nor commented on the attack.这一天，政府既没有证实也没有评论上的攻击。 Nevertheless, in Washington, Israel’s strike against Syria has revived the specter of war with Iran.不过，在华盛顿，以色列的打击，叙利亚复兴的幽灵与伊朗的战争。 For the neoconservatives it could represent a glimmer of hope that the grandiose dream of a democratic Middle East has not yet been buried in the ashes of Iraq.为新保守派它可以代表了一线希望宏伟的梦想，一个民主的中东至今仍未被埋葬在灰烬伊拉克。 But for realists in the corridors of the State Department and the Pentagon, military action against Iran is a nightmare they have sought to avert by asking a simple question: “What then?”但对于现实主义者，在走廊里，美国国务院和五角大楼，对伊朗采取军事行动是一场噩梦，他们已设法避免问一个简单的问题： “什么，然后” ？ The Israeli strike, or something like it, could easily mark the beginning of the “World War III,” which President Bush warned against last week.以色列大罢工，或类似的东西，很可能开始的标志“第三次世界大战” ，布什总统警告不要在上星期。 With his usual apocalyptic rhetoric, he said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could lead the region to a new world war if his nation builds a nuclear bomb.与他一贯的世界末日的言论，他说，伊朗总统艾哈迈迪内贾德可能会导致该地区一个新的世界战争，如果他的国家，建立了核弹。 Conditions do look ripe for disaster.条件不看的时机已经成熟灾难。 Iran continues to acquire and develop the fundamental prerequisites for a nuclear weapon.伊朗继续收购和发展的基本前提核武器。 The mullah regime receives support — at least moral support, if not technology — from a newly strengthened Russia, which these days reaches for every chance to provoke the United States.该毛拉政权获得支持-至少在道义上的支持，如果没有技术-从一个新的加强，俄罗斯，这些天，达到为每一个机会挑起美国。 President Vladimir Putin’s own (self-described) “grandiose plan” to restore Russia’s armed forces includes a nuclear buildup.俄罗斯总统普京的自己（自我描述）的“宏伟计划” ，以恢复俄罗斯的武装力量，包括核建设。 The war in Iraq continues to drag on without an end in sight or even an opportunity for US troops to withdraw in a way that doesn’t smack of retreat.在伊拉克战争继续拖下去，没有结束的迹象，甚至有机会为美军撤回在一个方式，这并不smack的撤退。 In Afghanistan, NATO troops are struggling to prevent a return of the Taliban and al-Qaida terrorists.在阿富汗，北约部队中挣扎，以防止返回的塔利班和基地组织的恐怖分子。 The Palestinian conflict could still reignite on any front.巴勒斯坦冲突仍然可以reignite对任何方面。 In Washington, Bush has 15 months left in office.在华盛顿，布什已在15个月留在办公室。 He may have few successes to show for himself, but he’s already thinking of his legacy.他可能有几个成功的，以显示自己，但他的思想已经他的遗产。 Bush says he wants diplomacy to settle the nuclear dispute with Tehran, and hopes international pressure will finally convince Ahmadinejad to come to his senses.布什说，他希望外交解决核争端与伊朗，并希望国际压力将最终说服内贾德来他的感官。 Nevertheless, the way pressure has been building in Washington, preparations for war could be underway.不过，方式的压力，已建立在华盛顿，战争准备，可进行中。 In late September, the US Senate voted to declare the 125,000-man Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization.在9月下旬，美国参议院表决申报12.5万人的伊朗革命卫队一个恐怖组织。 High-ranking US generals have accused Iran of waging a “proxy war” against the United States through its support of Shiite militias in Iraq.高级将领，美国指责伊朗打一场“代理战争”对美国通过其支持的什叶派民兵在伊拉克。 And strategists at the Pentagon, apparently at Cheney’s request, have developed detailed plans for an attack against Tehran.和战略家在五角大楼，显然是在切尼的要求，已制定了详细的计划，攻击德黑兰。 Instead of the previous scenario of a large-scale bombardment of the country’s many nuclear facilities, the current emphasis is, once again, on so-called surgical strikes, primarily against the quarters of the Revolutionary Guards.而不是以前的情况，一个大型的轰炸该国的许多核设施，目前的重点是，再次对所谓外科手术式打击，主要是对四分之三的革命卫队。 This sort of attack would be less massive than a major strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.这种攻击会减少，大规模的比重大打击伊朗的核设施。 Conservative think tanks and pundits who sense this could be their last chance to implement their agenda in the Middle East have supported and disseminated such plans in the press.保守的智囊团和专家们谁意识，这可能是他们最后的机会，以落实他们的议程，在中东都支持和传播，例如计划在报章上。 Despite America’s many failures in Iraq, these hawks have urged the weakened president to act now, accusing him of having lost sight of his principal agenda and no longer daring to apply his own doctrine of pre-emptive strikes.尽管美国的许多失败的在伊拉克，这些鹰派已促请削弱总统现在就采取行动，指控他有抛诸脑后，他的主要议程和不再敢于申请自己的学说先发制人打击。 Sheer Lunacy? 纯粹lunacy ？ The notion of war with Iran has spilled over into other circles, too.概念与伊朗的战争已蔓延到其他各界，太。 Last Monday Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic Speaker of the US House of Representatives, made it clear that the president would first need Congressional approval to launch an attack.上周一佩洛西，民主党议长，美国国会众议院，作出明确表示，立法会主席首先需要国会的批准，以发动攻击。 Meanwhile, Republican candidates for the White House have debated whether they would even allow such details to get in their way.与此同时，共和党候选人为白宫辩论是否他们甚至会允许这样的细节，以获得他们的方式。 Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney said he would consult his attorneys to determine whether the US Constitution does, in fact, require a president to ask for Congressional approval before going to war.前马萨诸塞州总督手套罗姆尼表示，他将征询他的律师，以确定是否美国宪法没有，事实上，要求总统要求国会批准之前，前往战争。 Vietnam veteran John McCain said war with Iran was “maybe closer to reality than we are discussing tonight.”越战老兵约翰麦凯恩说与伊朗的战争是“也许更接近于现实比我们所讨论的今晚” 。 Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton has also adopted a hawkish stance, voting in favor of the Senate measure to classify the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization.民主党领先希拉里还通过了一项强硬的立场，投票，赞成的参议院措施，以分类革命卫队作为一个恐怖组织。 Her rivals criticized Clinton for giving the administration a blank check to go to war.她的对手批评克林顿给政府空白支票去战争。 The US military is building a base in Iraq less than 10 kilometers (about six miles) from Iran’s border.美国军方正在建设一个基地，在伊拉克的不到10公里（约六英里）由伊朗的边境。 The facility, known as Combat Outpost Shocker, is meant for American soldiers preventing Iranian weapons from being smuggled into Iraq.该设施，被称为作战的前哨shocker ，是指为美国大兵防止伊朗武器正被偷运到伊拉克。 But it’s also rumored that Bush authorized US intelligence agencies in April to run sabotage missions against the mullah regime on Iranian soil.但它也有传言说，布什授权美国情报机构在4月运行，破坏特派团对毛拉政权对伊朗的土壤。 Gary Sick is an expert on Iran who served as a military adviser under three presidents.程介南生病是一个专家对伊朗谁充当军事顾问下，三位总统。 He believes that such preparations mark a significant shift in the government’s strategy.他认为，这样的准备，马克的重大转变，政府的策略。 “Since August,” says Sick, “the emphasis is no longer on the Iranian nuclear threat,” but on Iran’s support for terrorism in Iraq. “自8月以来，说： ”生病了， “我们强调的是不再对伊朗的核威胁” ，但对伊朗的对恐怖主义的支持在伊拉克。 “This is a complete change and is potentially dangerous.” “这是一个彻底的改变，是有潜在危险的” 。 It would be relatively easy for Bush to prove that Tehran, by supporting insurgents in Iraq, is responsible for the deaths of American soldiers.它会比较容易为布什证明德黑兰，支持伊拉克的反叛分子，负责为死亡的美军士兵。 It might be harder to prove that Iran’s nuclear plans pose an immediate threat to the world.它可能会加倍努力，证明伊朗的核计划构成即时威胁到世界。 Besides, the nuclear argument is reminiscent of an embarrassing precedent, when the Bush administration used the claim that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction — which he didn’t — as a reason to invade Iraq.此外，核论点是想起一个尴尬的先例，当布什政府用声称萨达姆拥有大规模杀伤性武器-他没有-为理由入侵伊拉克。 Even if the evidence against Tehran proves to be more damning, the American public will find it difficult to swallow this argument again.即使对德黑兰的证据证明，以更严厉，美国公众将难以吞下这个论点。 The forces urging a diplomatic resolution also look stronger than they were before Iraq.的力量，敦促通过外交途径解决还期待更强的比以前伊拉克。 Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice wants the next step to be a third round of even tighter sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council.美国国务卿赖斯希望下一步要了第三轮，甚至更严格的对伊朗的制裁在联合国安理会。 Rice has powerful allies at the Pentagon: Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Admiral William Fallon, head of US Central Command, which is responsible for American forces throughout the region.水稻，具有强大的盟国在五角大楼：国防部长罗伯特盖茨和海军上将威廉法伦，主管美国中央司令部，负责美军在整个地区。 Rice and her cohorts all favor diplomacy, partly because they know the military is under strain.赖斯和她的人群都赞成外交，这部分是因为他们知道军队是根据应变。 After four years in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US lacks manpower for another major war, especially one against a relatively well-prepared adversary. 4年后在伊拉克和阿富汗，美国缺乏人手的又一重大战争，尤其是一对较为充分准备的对手。 “For many senior people at the Pentagon, the CIA and the State Department, a war would be sheer lunacy,” says security expert Sick. “对于许多资深的人在五角大楼，中情局和美国国务院，战争将是纯粹的lunacy ，说： ”安全专家生病。 Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and now a Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution, agrees.布鲁斯里德尔，前中情局官员和现在一中东问题专家在布鲁金斯学会的同意。 A war against Tehran would be “a disaster for the entire world,” says Riedel, who worries about a “battlefield extending from the Mediterranean to the Indian subcontinent.” Nevertheless, he believes there is a “realistic risk of a military conflict,” because both sides look willing to carry things to the brink.战争对德黑兰将是“一场灾难，整个世界，说： ”里德尔，谁的忧虑“战场扩大，从地中海到印度次大陆。 ”不过，他认为有一个“现实的危险的军事冲突， ”因为双方看愿意进行的事情的边缘。 On the one hand, says Riedel, Iran is playing with fire, challenging the West by sending weapons to Shiite insurgents in Iraq.在一方面，里德尔说，伊朗是玩火，富有挑战性的西派遣武器的什叶派叛乱分子在伊拉克。 On the other hand, hotheads in Washington are by no means powerless.在另一方面， hotheads在华盛顿是绝不无能为力的。 Although many neoconservative hawks have left the Bush administration, Cheney remains their reliable partner.虽然有很多新保守主义鹰派已离开布什政府，切尼仍然是可靠的合作伙伴。 “The vice president is the closest adviser to the president, and a dominant figure,” says Riedel. “副总统是最亲密的顾问主席，并主导的数字，说： ”里德尔。 “One shouldn’t underestimate how much power he still wields.” “一个不应该低估多少权力，他仍然拥有” 。 ‘Is it 1938 Again?’ '是它1938年再次呢？ Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Tehran last week also played into the hands of hardliners in Washington, who read it as proof that Putin isn’t serious about joining the West’s effort to convince Tehran to abandon its drive for a nuclear weapon.俄罗斯总统普京的访问德黑兰上周也发挥到手中的强硬派在华盛顿，谁读它作为证明，普京并不严重，加入西方的努力，以说服德黑兰放弃其驱动器为核武器。 Moreover, the countries bordering the Caspian Sea, including Central Asian nations Washington has courted energetically in recent years, have said they would not allow a war against Tehran to be launched from their territory.此外，周边国家对里海，包括中亚各国华盛顿已经courted大力在近年来，已表示，他们不会允许战争对德黑兰即将展开，从他们的领土。 Cheney derives much of his support from hawks outside the administration who fear their days are as numbered as the President’s.切尼源于他的大部分支持从鹰派政府以外的谁害怕他们的天是编号为主席的。 “The neocons see Iran as their last chance to prove something,” says analyst Riedel. “新保守主义者看到伊朗作为他们的最后一次机会，来证明的东西，说： ”分析师里德尔。 This aim is reflected in their tone.这个目标是反映在他们的语调。 Conservative columnist Norman Podhoretz, for example — a father figure to all neocons — wrote in the Wall Street Journal that he “hopes and prays” that Bush will finally bomb Iran.保守的专栏作家诺曼podhoretz ，例如-一个父亲的数字，向所有新保守主义者-写在华尔街日报说，他“希望和祈祷”，布什将最后轰炸伊朗。 Podhoretz sees the United States engaged in a global war against “Islamofascism,” a conflict he defines as World War IV, and he likens Iran to Nazi Germany. podhoretz认为，美国在从事一场全球战争反对“ islamofascism ， ”冲突，他定义为第四次世界大战，他likens伊朗纳粹德国。 “Is it 1938 again?” he asks in a speech he repeats regularly at conferences. “是1938年再次？ ”他问在一次讲话中重复了他经常在各种会议。 Podhoretz is by no means an eccentric outsider. podhoretz绝不是一个古怪的局外人。 He now serves as a senior foreign-policy adviser to Republican presidential candidate Rudolph Giuliani.他目前担任的一名高级外交政策顾问，共和党总统候选人的鲁道夫朱利安尼。 President Bush has also met with Podhoretz at the White House to hear his opinions.美国总统布什还会见了podhoretz在白宫听取他的意见。 Nevertheless, most experts in Washington warn against attacking Tehran.不过，多数专家在华盛顿发出警告，反对攻击伊朗。 They assume the Iranians would retaliate.他们假定，伊朗人会报复。 “It would be foolish to believe surgical strikes will be enough,” says Riedel, who believes that precision attacks would quickly escalate to war. “这将是愚蠢到相信，外科手术式打击将是不够的，说： ”里德尔，谁认为精确打击将迅速升级为战争。 Former presidential adviser Sick thinks Iran would strike back with terrorist attacks.前总统顾问病假认为，伊朗将反击恐怖袭击。 “The generals of the Revolutionary Guard have had several years to think about asymmetrical warfare,” says Sick. “将军的革命卫队已在数年想一想，非对称作战，说： ”生病。 “They probably have a few rather interesting ideas.” “他们大概有几个，而不是有趣的想法” 。 According to Sick, detonating well-placed bombs at oil terminals in the Persian Gulf would be enough to wreak havoc.据生病了，引爆以及放置炸弹在石油码头和在波斯湾活动将足以肆虐。 “Insurance costs would skyrocket, causing oil prices to triple and triggering a global recession,” Sick warns. “保险费用将猛涨，造成石油价格的三倍，并引发全球经济衰退， ”病态警告。 “The economic consequences would be enormous, far greater than anything we have experienced with Iraq so far.” “经济后果将是巨大的，远远大于任何我们所经历的与伊拉克至今” 。 Because the catastrophic consequences of an attack on Iran are obvious, many in Washington have a fairly benign take on the current round of saber rattling.因为灾难性的后果，一个对伊朗发动攻击是显而易见的，许多在华盛顿有相当的良性采取对当前一轮的军刀剧烈震动。 They believe the sheer dread of war is being used to bolster diplomatic efforts to solve the crisis and encourage hesitant members of the United Nations Security Council to take more decisive action.他们相信，纯粹是恐惧的战争正在被用来加强外交努力来解决危机，并鼓励犹豫不决的成员对联合国安理会采取更果断的行动。 The Security Council, this argument goes, will be more likely to approve tighter sanctions if it believes that war is the only alternative.安理会，这种说法有云，将更有可能通过更严格的制裁，如果它认为，战争是唯一的选择。 See More: 看到更多的： Iran 伊朗 USA News 美国新闻Have Your Say: White House Leak: Cheney’s Plan for Iran Attack 你说：白宫泄漏 ： 切尼的计划，伊朗攻击 Please note, only selected comments will be published.请注意，只有选定的评论将出版。 Or discuss this report in our new forums 或讨论这个报告在我们的新论坛 This entry was posted on Sunday, October 28th, 2007 at 6:46 pm and is filed under 此项目被张贴在周日， 2007年10月28日在下午6时46分，并提交下 War & Terrorism News 战争和恐怖主义新闻 . 。 You can follow any responses to this entry through the 您可以按照任何的反应，此项目通过 RSS 2.0 2.0 feed. 喂养。 You can 您可以 leave a response 留下的回应 , or ，或 trackback Trackback跟踪 from your own site. 从你自己的网站。 | Translations 翻译               Free Newsletter 免费通讯 Related News 相关新闻
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