US/IRAQ: A pressão cortar custos, tropas estica o “Surge”
Por Lóbulo de Jim | O impatience crescente no Congress sobre os custos enormes que estão sendo submeteridos acima pela guerra de Iraq, assim como a opinião do Pentagon que necessita mais tropas em Afeganistão lutar lá insurgents, é pôr vaunted o sucesso de George W. Estratégia do “surge” de administração de Bush ao teste.
Embora a casa de representantes pareça poised para aprovar uns 163 bilhão dólares adicionais de quinta-feira para operações militares em Iraq e em Afeganistão através do fim do ano, a maioria de observadores acreditam que o Congress imporá circunstâncias unprecedented em despesa Iraq-relacionada. Isto poderia incluir as exigências que o governo Iraqi do pagamento do al-Maliki de Nouri do ministro principal substancialmente mais no reconstruction e em custos relacionados do que ele tem que datar.
O argumento que Bagdade deve carregar mais do burden ganhou o momentum última semana quando o general de Inspector especial do Pentagon para o Reconstruction de Iraq relatou que o rendimento do óleo de Iraq em 2008 deve exceder 70 bilhão dólares, duas vezes tanto quanto tido previsto apenas alguns meses antes.
Esse relatório, que vem entre o interesse crescente aqui sobre a economia doméstica fraca, abasteceu esforços por um grupo bipartisan dos senators parar virtualmente todos os ESTADOS UNIDOS. financiar para projetos principais do reconstruction e do infrastructure em Iraq.
Certamente, o comitê dos forças armadas do Senate votou unânimemente a última semana para aprovar uma conta que proibisse o Pentagon de financiar todo o projeto do reconstruction ou do infrastructure em Iraq que custa mais de dois milhão dólares. A legislação similar espera-se ser feita exame acima pela casa.
“Esta é a primeira mudança bipartisan significativa em nossa política para Iraq,” sensor republicano declarado. Susan Collins, um dos patrocinadores da legislação após o voto da última semana, quando o presidente do comitê, sensor. A falha de Carl Iraq dito Levin pagar custos do reconstruction era “(e) inexcusable unconscionable” dada o windfall que recebeu da ascensão stunning em preços de óleo do mundo.
Uma outra provisão da mesma conta requereria o governo de Iraq pagar predominantly os salários e os custos do treinamento das milícias de Sunni, ou “sahwa so-called” ou “Awakening” os conselhos, em que os ESTADOS UNIDOS. tem gastado aproximadamente 27 milhão dólares um o mês.
Apesar de ESTADOS UNIDOS. pressure, the al-Maliki government has strongly resisted integrating the vast majority of the estimated 90,000 members of these militias — most of which were previously part of the Sunni insurgency — into the army or police for fear that they will eventually turn their guns on the regime.
The result has been growing frustration on the part of the militias, frustration that reportedly was significantly enhanced last month after al-Maliki enlisted thousands of members of the Badr Organisation into the government’s security forces during fighting with Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army in Basra and Sadr City in Baghdad. The Badr Organisation is the armed wing of the Shi’a Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), the strongest party in the coalition.
Both the intra-Shi’a conflict between the Sadrists and the government and the growing anger of the sahwa militias — most recently dramatised by a series of strikes and public protests and by an increasing number of attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces in al-Anbar province and other Sunni strongholds where the militias have kept the peace for most of the past year — have resulted in a sharp rise in both Iraqi and U.S. casualties over the past two months, threatening the security gains made by the surge.
The surge, which was initiated in February 2007, was aimed at pacifying both al-Anbar province and the capital by adding some 30,000 U.S. troops to the 140,000 already deployed to Iraq to stop and reverse the drift to sectarian civil war between Sunnis and the various Shi’a militias. Its strategic aim was to foster a climate of peace and stability that would encourage all factions to make the political compromises necessary for national reconciliation.
While the surge made substantial headway in achieving its tactical goals of improving security — with the critical help of the sahwa militias which had mostly broken with al Qaeda in Iraq and allied themselves with the U.S. even before the surge got underway — its strategic goal of political reconciliation has been far more elusive.
Moreover, the surge’s tactical success has failed to translate into additional popular or Congressional support for the war at home. As a result, the Bush administration, which promised months ago to withdraw the 30,000 surge troops by the end of July, is adhering to its pledge, leaving fewer troops to ensure that a new round of violence does not break out.
At the same time, the Pentagon leadership is pressing the White House to continue the drawdown from Iraq beyond July so that it can deploy the three brigades — between 10,000 and 12,000 troops — it says it needs to cope with the Taliban and their allies in Afghanistan. While Bush has announced that there will be at least a 45-day pause to assess the impact of the surge withdrawal after July, the pressure on him to resume the process — not only from the Pentagon, but from Republican candidates in the November elections — is expected to be intense.
Republican backing for the Armed Services Committee bill banning additional spending on major reconstruction projects and support for the sahwa militias is clearly seen by both the administration and the promoters of the surge as a worrisome portent, and not only for maintaining the relative — albeit fragile — peace that has prevailed for much of the past year.
One of the surge’s architects, Frederick Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), said that legislation would “do catastrophic damage to our image in the world, particularly the Muslim world…The argument that Iraq should use its oil revenues to pay the United States sounds like the ultimate proof that we invaded Iraq for mercenary reasons.”
Ending U.S. funding for the sahwa militias, in particular, will pose a critical — and long overdue — test of the surge strategy, according to a number of observers, who see Maliki’s failure to integrate them as a critical stumbling block to national reconciliation.
“If the Awakenings are not integrated into the national security forces, then there is little hope for political accommodation or for lasting security and the U.S. is effectively trapped,” according to Marc Lynch, an expert at George Washington University whose blog, abuaardvark.com, is widely read here. “Since all other forms of persuasion seem to have failed, it’s time to give Maliki an ultimatum…If he gives in, then there may finally be some hope for political accommodation…”
“The downside is that if Maliki doesn’t go along…then things may well get ugly. But all signs suggests that they will get ugly anyway — and better that they get ugly while the U.S. is at the highest troop levels it will ever have,” Lynch wrote.
“If Maliki won’t do this now, when U.S. troop levels are high and security is relatively better, with the shadow of a new president who likely will not continue to offer an open-ended commitment, then he never will…and everyone should know this.”
*Jim Lobe’s blog on U.S. foreign policy, and particularly the neo-conservative influence in the Bush administration, can be read at http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/.
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This entry was posted on Thursday, May 8th, 2008 at 11:45 am and is filed under War & Terrorism News . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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