US/IRAQ: コスト、軍隊を削減する圧力はこす「サージ」を
によって ジムの丸い突出部 | アフガニスタンでより多くの軍隊が反乱者をそこに戦うことを必要とするという米国国防総省の確信と同様、イラク戦争によって、悩まされている巨大な費用上の議会の成長する苛立ちはジョージW.の誇示された成功を置いている。 テストへのブッシュ政権の「サージ」の作戦。
衆議院が年の終わりを通してイラクおよびアフガニスタン両方の軍事活動のための木曜日付加的な163,000,000,000ドルの承認するために安定させてようであるがほとんどの観測者は議会がイラク関係した出費に前例のない条件を課すことを信じる。 これは総理大臣のNouriのAlMalikiの支払の日付を記入しなければイラクの政府がそれより復元および関連の費用の大幅に多くならない条件を含むことができる。
バグダッドが重荷の多くに耐えなければならないこと議論は持たれていて少数の月ちょうど前に予測されてと2008のイラクのオイル収入は70,000,000,000ドルを超過するべきであることをイラクの復元のための米国国防総省の特別な監察官が報告したときに運動量を二度大いに先週得た。
弱い国内経済上の成長する心配の中にここに来るそのレポートは事実上すべての米国を停止させるための上院議員の二党派のグループによる努力に燃料を供給した。 主要な復元および下部組織のための資金はイラクで写し出す。
実際に、上院の軍委員会は2以上,000,000ドルを要するイラクの復元または下部組織のプロジェクトの資金からの米国国防総省を禁止する手形を承認するために先週満場一致で投票した。 同じような立法は家によってとられると期待される。
「これはイラクの方に私達の方針の最初の重要な二党派の変更」、宣言された共和党上院議員である。 スーザンCollins、先週の投票の後の立法のスポンサーの1、間上院議員、委員会の議長。 復元の費用を支払う世界のオイル価格の思いがけない上昇から受け取った風で落ちた果物があったイラクが失敗「非良心的な()許し難かった」ことをカールLevinは言い。
同じ手形の別の準備はイラクの政府スンニ派の在郷軍、かいわゆる「sahwa」または米国議会を「覚醒させることが」のサラリーそして訓練費用に主に支払うように要求する。 大体27,000,000ドルを使っているずっと月。
米国にもかかわらず。 pressure, the al-Maliki government has strongly resisted integrating the vast majority of the estimated 90,000 members of these militias ― most of which were previously part of the Sunni insurgency ― into the army or police for fear that they will eventually turn their guns on the regime.
The result has been growing frustration on the part of the militias, frustration that reportedly was significantly enhanced last month after al-Maliki enlisted thousands of members of the Badr Organisation into the government’s security forces during fighting with Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army in Basra and Sadr City in Baghdad. The Badr Organisation is the armed wing of the Shi’a Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), the strongest party in the coalition.
Both the intra-Shi’a conflict between the Sadrists and the government and the growing anger of the sahwa militias ― most recently dramatised by a series of strikes and public protests and by an increasing number of attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces in al-Anbar province and other Sunni strongholds where the militias have kept the peace for most of the past year ― have resulted in a sharp rise in both Iraqi and U.S. casualties over the past two months, threatening the security gains made by the surge.
The surge, which was initiated in February 2007, was aimed at pacifying both al-Anbar province and the capital by adding some 30,000 U.S. troops to the 140,000 already deployed to Iraq to stop and reverse the drift to sectarian civil war between Sunnis and the various Shi’a militias. Its strategic aim was to foster a climate of peace and stability that would encourage all factions to make the political compromises necessary for national reconciliation.
While the surge made substantial headway in achieving its tactical goals of improving security ― with the critical help of the sahwa militias which had mostly broken with al Qaeda in Iraq and allied themselves with the U.S. even before the surge got underway ― its strategic goal of political reconciliation has been far more elusive.
Moreover, the surge’s tactical success has failed to translate into additional popular or Congressional support for the war at home. As a result, the Bush administration, which promised months ago to withdraw the 30,000 surge troops by the end of July, is adhering to its pledge, leaving fewer troops to ensure that a new round of violence does not break out.
At the same time, the Pentagon leadership is pressing the White House to continue the drawdown from Iraq beyond July so that it can deploy the three brigades ― between 10,000 and 12,000 troops ― it says it needs to cope with the Taliban and their allies in Afghanistan. While Bush has announced that there will be at least a 45-day pause to assess the impact of the surge withdrawal after July, the pressure on him to resume the process ― not only from the Pentagon, but from Republican candidates in the November elections ― is expected to be intense.
Republican backing for the Armed Services Committee bill banning additional spending on major reconstruction projects and support for the sahwa militias is clearly seen by both the administration and the promoters of the surge as a worrisome portent, and not only for maintaining the relative ― albeit fragile ― peace that has prevailed for much of the past year.
One of the surge’s architects, Frederick Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), said that legislation would “do catastrophic damage to our image in the world, particularly the Muslim world…The argument that Iraq should use its oil revenues to pay the United States sounds like the ultimate proof that we invaded Iraq for mercenary reasons.”
Ending U.S. funding for the sahwa militias, in particular, will pose a critical ― and long overdue ― test of the surge strategy, according to a number of observers, who see Maliki’s failure to integrate them as a critical stumbling block to national reconciliation.
“If the Awakenings are not integrated into the national security forces, then there is little hope for political accommodation or for lasting security and the U.S. is effectively trapped,” according to Marc Lynch, an expert at George Washington University whose blog, abuaardvark.com, is widely read here. “Since all other forms of persuasion seem to have failed, it’s time to give Maliki an ultimatum…If he gives in, then there may finally be some hope for political accommodation…”
“The downside is that if Maliki doesn’t go along…then things may well get ugly. But all signs suggests that they will get ugly anyway ― and better that they get ugly while the U.S. is at the highest troop levels it will ever have,” Lynch wrote.
“If Maliki won’t do this now, when U.S. troop levels are high and security is relatively better, with the shadow of a new president who likely will not continue to offer an open-ended commitment, then he never will…and everyone should know this.”
*Jim Lobe’s blog on U.S. foreign policy, and particularly the neo-conservative influence in the Bush administration, can be read at http://www.ips.org/blog/jimlobe/.
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This entry was posted on Thursday, May 8th, 2008 at 11:45 am and is filed under War & Terrorism News . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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