Never Having to Say You’re Sorry從來不必說你很抱歉
By Sam Gardiner | Earlier in the week the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) issued another of its dossiers. This one addresses nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.由薩姆加德納|在本週早些時候，國際戰略研究所（ iiss ）發出另一其檔案材料，這一個地址，核擴散在中東。 Remember the IISS track record with dossiers? Their most famous report came in September 2002 when we were told Iran could be as close as two years to having a nuclear weapon.記得iiss記錄與檔案？他們最有名的報告來在2002年9月，當我們被告知伊朗可能接近兩年，有核武器。 Remember the interviews with the authors of the study?記得採訪的作者的研究呢？
- Does Iraq have weapons of mass destruction: “Yes.”伊拉克是否擁有大規模殺傷性武器： “是” 。
Chemical and biological weapons:化學武器和生物武器：
- “On chemical weapons, our net assessment is that Iraq has probably retained a few hundred tons of mustard gas and precursors…” “關於化學武器，我們的淨評估是，伊拉克可能已經保留了數百噸的芥子氣和前體的… … ”
- “As for biological weapons, Iraq probably retained substantial growth media and perhaps thousands of liters of anthrax…” “至於生物武器，伊拉克很可能保留了大幅增長，也許是媒體和成千上萬的升的炭疽… … ”
And if we don’t do something in the next six months,和如果我們不這樣做的東西在未來六個月內，
- “…we’ll end up with a regime in Baghdad with nuclear weapons in two years’ time.” “ … …我們將最終與一個政權在巴格達與核武器在兩年的時間” 。
The study became a major tool of those arguing for the invasion of Iraq in both the UK and the United States. It was used by Tony Blair and was a favorite of the US Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz.研究成為一個主要的工具，那些主張入侵伊拉克在這兩個英國和美國，它是用托尼布萊爾和是一個最喜歡的美國國防部副部長保羅沃爾福威茨。
IISS report 2005 iiss報告2005
In September 2005 IISS did another study. This one was “Iran’s Strategic Weapons Programs: A Net Assessment.” Although the authors of this study were more cautious, they did declare that Iran could have a nuclear weapon in five years or so.在2005年9月iiss做的另一項研究，這其中一個是“伊朗的戰略武器計劃：淨評估” ，雖然作者本研究更加謹慎，他們也宣布，伊朗可能擁有核武器，在五年或如此。
In neither the press materials or in the press conference did IISS make reference to the serious errors that had been made in the assessment of Iraq’s WMD programs.在既不是新聞材料，或在記者招待會上沒有iiss參考的嚴重錯誤，已取得在評估伊拉克的大規模殺傷性武器計劃。
Now we have the most recent study. The caution has gone. The editor of the study boldly declared, “We take it for granted that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon.” Without explanation, he dismisses he US National Intelligence Estimate that did not take that for granted.現在我們有最近期的研究。謹慎了。編輯研究，大膽宣布： “我們是否可以理所當然地認為，伊朗是追求核武器。 ”沒有作出任何解釋，他解僱，他美國國家情報估計，沒有採取這是理所當然的事。
Again, there is no reference to the previous bad assessment or the assessment Iran could have a weapon in just two years from now.再次，是沒有參考以前的壞的評估或評估伊朗可能有武器，在短短的兩年，從現在開始。
Doing studies means never having to say you are sorry.這樣做的研究手段，從未說你很抱歉。
The Telegraph , the Times and the Guardian carried stories this week on the IISS study. All three had frightening headlines: “Middle East in nuclear race to match Iran,” “Iran’s nuclear programme ‘may spark Middle East weapons race,’” and “Iran’s nuclear programme could be triggering a race to develop atomic weapons in the Middle East, a study warned.” 電報 ， 時代和監護人進行的故事，這個星期就iiss研究所有三個可怕的標題： “在中東地區的核競賽，以配合伊朗” ， “伊朗的核計劃' ，可能引發中東地區的武器競賽， ” “伊朗的核計劃可引發種族發展原子武器在中東，研究警告” 。
All three of the stories were probably good journalism. The reporters, two of them diplomatic editors, represented the IISS study well. None of them, however, reminded us of the history of previous IISS mistakes or of their own newspaper’s mistakes in covering previous studies.所有這三個故事，可能是好新聞。記者，他們兩人的外交編輯，代表iiss學習好，沒有他們，不過，提醒我們的歷史，前iiss錯誤或他們自己的報紙的失誤，涵蓋以往的研究。
I guess doing journalism also means never having to say you are sorry.我猜想做新聞也意味著永遠不必說你是很抱歉。
Notes 債券
* These statements are from a phone interview by LA Weekly with Colonel Terence Taylor on September 20, 2002. Taylor was one of principal authors of the study. *這些聲明是從電話採訪時，由香格里拉每週與上校特倫斯泰勒9月20日， 2002年。泰勒是一個主要的作者研究。
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