Never Having to Say You’re Sorry从来不必说你很抱歉
By Sam Gardiner | Earlier in the week the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) issued another of its dossiers. This one addresses nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.由萨姆加德纳|在本周早些时候，国际战略研究所（ iiss ）发出另一其档案材料，这一个地址，核扩散在中东。 Remember the IISS track record with dossiers? Their most famous report came in September 2002 when we were told Iran could be as close as two years to having a nuclear weapon.记得iiss记录与档案？他们最有名的报告来在2002年9月，当我们被告知伊朗可能接近两年，有核武器。 Remember the interviews with the authors of the study?记得采访的作者的研究呢？
- Does Iraq have weapons of mass destruction: “Yes.”伊拉克是否拥有大规模杀伤性武器： “是” 。
Chemical and biological weapons:化学武器和生物武器：
- “On chemical weapons, our net assessment is that Iraq has probably retained a few hundred tons of mustard gas and precursors…” “关于化学武器，我们的净评估是，伊拉克可能已经保留了数百吨的芥子气和前体的… … ”
- “As for biological weapons, Iraq probably retained substantial growth media and perhaps thousands of liters of anthrax…” “至于生物武器，伊拉克很可能保留了大幅增长，也许是媒体和成千上万的升的炭疽… … ”
And if we don’t do something in the next six months,和如果我们不这样做的东西在未来六个月内，
- “…we’ll end up with a regime in Baghdad with nuclear weapons in two years’ time.” “ … …我们将最终与一个政权在巴格达与核武器在两年的时间” 。
The study became a major tool of those arguing for the invasion of Iraq in both the UK and the United States. It was used by Tony Blair and was a favorite of the US Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz.研究成为一个主要的工具，那些主张入侵伊拉克在这两个英国和美国，它是用托尼布莱尔和是一个最喜欢的美国国防部副部长保罗沃尔福威茨。
IISS report 2005 iiss报告2005
In September 2005 IISS did another study. This one was “Iran’s Strategic Weapons Programs: A Net Assessment.” Although the authors of this study were more cautious, they did declare that Iran could have a nuclear weapon in five years or so.在2005年9月iiss做的另一项研究，这其中一个是“伊朗的战略武器计划：净评估” ，虽然作者本研究更加谨慎，他们也宣布，伊朗可能拥有核武器，在五年或如此。
In neither the press materials or in the press conference did IISS make reference to the serious errors that had been made in the assessment of Iraq’s WMD programs.在既不是新闻材料，或在记者招待会上没有iiss参考的严重错误，已取得在评估伊拉克的大规模杀伤性武器计划。
Now we have the most recent study. The caution has gone. The editor of the study boldly declared, “We take it for granted that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon.” Without explanation, he dismisses he US National Intelligence Estimate that did not take that for granted.现在我们有最近期的研究。谨慎了。编辑研究，大胆宣布： “我们是否可以理所当然地认为，伊朗是追求核武器。 ”没有作出任何解释，他解雇，他美国国家情报估计，没有采取这是理所当然的事。
Again, there is no reference to the previous bad assessment or the assessment Iran could have a weapon in just two years from now.再次，是没有参考以前的坏的评估或评估伊朗可能有武器，在短短的两年，从现在开始。
Doing studies means never having to say you are sorry.这样做的研究手段，从未说你很抱歉。
The Telegraph , the Times and the Guardian carried stories this week on the IISS study. All three had frightening headlines: “Middle East in nuclear race to match Iran,” “Iran’s nuclear programme ‘may spark Middle East weapons race,’” and “Iran’s nuclear programme could be triggering a race to develop atomic weapons in the Middle East, a study warned.” 电报 ， 时代和监护人进行的故事，这个星期就iiss研究所有三个可怕的标题： “在中东地区的核竞赛，以配合伊朗” ， “伊朗的核计划' ，可能引发中东地区的武器竞赛， ” “伊朗的核计划可引发种族发展原子武器在中东，研究警告” 。
All three of the stories were probably good journalism. The reporters, two of them diplomatic editors, represented the IISS study well. None of them, however, reminded us of the history of previous IISS mistakes or of their own newspaper’s mistakes in covering previous studies.所有这三个故事，可能是好新闻。记者，他们两人的外交编辑，代表iiss学习好，没有他们，不过，提醒我们的历史，前iiss错误或他们自己的报纸的失误，涵盖以往的研究。
I guess doing journalism also means never having to say you are sorry.我猜想做新闻也意味着永远不必说你是很抱歉。
Notes 债券
* These statements are from a phone interview by LA Weekly with Colonel Terence Taylor on September 20, 2002. Taylor was one of principal authors of the study. *这些声明是从电话采访时，由香格里拉每周与上校特伦斯泰勒9月20日， 2002年。泰勒是一个主要的作者研究。
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