Israeli soldiers secure the gate at the Rosh Hanikra border crossing between Israel and Lebanon October 15, 2007.以色列士兵在安全門上的Rosh hanikra邊境通道的以色列和黎巴嫩之間2007年10月15日。

Gil Cohen Magen / Reuters吉爾的Magen科恩/路透

Is Israel laying the ground for preemptive air strikes against targets belonging to the militant Shi’ite group Hizballah in Lebanon?是以色列鋪設地面先發製人的空中打擊的對象，屬於激進的什葉派團體真主黨在黎巴嫩？

Tensions have been building along the Lebanon-Israel border in recent days.緊張局勢已建設沿著黎巴嫩-以色列邊界在最近幾天。 The Israeli army was engaged last week in large-scale military exercises in northern Israel, close to the border with Lebanon, putting into practice the lessons learned from last year’s 34-day war against Hizballah.以色列軍隊從事上週在大規模的軍事演習，在以色列北部靠近邊界的黎巴嫩，就是實踐的經驗教訓，從去年的34天的戰爭，反對真主黨。 The exercises took place at the same time as Israeli jets conducted a growing number of mock air raids and overflights in Lebanese airspace.這次演習發生在同一時間，因為以色列飛機進行了越來越多的模擬空襲和飛越黎巴嫩領空。 Israeli aircraft fly in Lebanese airspace on a near daily basis, but last week Lebanese army anti-aircraft units fired at the jets for the first time since the end of the war.以色列飛機飛了黎巴嫩領空，對近期每日的依據，但上週的黎巴嫩陸軍防空部隊發射了在飛機以來的第一次戰爭的結束。

Hizballah, too, is reported to have carried out over the weekend its largest ever military maneuvers in south Lebanon.真主黨，也就是據報已進行了超過週末，其規模最大的一次軍事演習，在黎巴嫩南部。 According to a report Monday in Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar newspaper, Hizballah’s three-day exercise was a response to the Israeli army’s own maneuvers and was intended, according to quoted Hizballah sources, to “deter the enemy from undertaking any further Lebanese adventures.”據報導，週一在黎巴嫩的基地akhbar報紙，真主黨的為期3天的演習是為了回應以色列軍隊自身的機動和用意，據援引真主黨消息來源，以"嚇阻敵人，從任何承諾進一步黎巴嫩冒險" 。

Accompanying all this heightened activity has been a flurry of reports in the Israeli media about Hizballah’s rearming, with claims that the Shi’ite group today possesses rockets that can strike Tel Aviv.伴隨這一切都加劇了活動一直十分頻繁的報導，在以色列媒體關於真主黨的武裝，聲稱什葉派集團今天擁有火箭能打擊特拉維夫。 Last week, a United Nations report on Lebanon carried information provided by Israel that alleged Hizballah was more heavily armed than prior to the 2006 war, with hundreds of long-range rockets and three times as many anti-ship cruise missiles.上星期，聯合國的一份報告對黎巴嫩進行提供的資料，以色列指控真主黨是更全副武裝，比之前以2006年戰爭中，數以百計的長程火箭和三倍多的反艦巡航導彈。 “Israel has stated that the nature and number of weapons in Hizballah’s control constitutes a strategic threat to its security and the safety of its citizens,” the report said. "以色列曾經表示，性質和數量的武器在真主黨的控制，構成了戰略威脅其安全和公民的安全， "該報告說。 And at a recent panel discussion in Washington, the outgoing deputy chief of staff of the Israeli army openly talked about the need to launch a preemptive strike against Hizballah targets in Lebanon sometime in the future.並在最近一次小組討論會在華盛頓，即將卸任的副參謀長，以色列軍隊公開講，有必要發動先發製人打擊真主黨目標，在黎巴嫩一段時間，在未來。

Hizballah’s leadership is playing down the prospect of renewed fighting with Israel.真主黨的領導是低調的前景再次發生戰鬥，與以色列。 Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hizballah’s secretary-general, said in a speech last week that “these maneuvers and mock air raids and these Israeli drum beats, threats and browbeats which we hear from time to time do not affect us at all.”謝赫納斯魯拉，真主黨的秘書長說，在一次講話中上週表示， "這些演習，並進行模擬空襲和以色列的這些鼓節拍，威脅和browbeats我們聽到不時並不影響我們在所有" 。

“Today, we are stronger [than last year] in terms of will, determination, faith, morals, finances, brains, measures, presence in the field and preparations for the confrontation. "今天，我們正強[比去年]而言，意志，決心，信念，道德的人，財，物開動腦筋，定措施，在外地的和準備工作，以便對抗。 Nothing intimidates us,” he said.沒有恐嚇我們， "他說。

Israel has been looking to restore its threat of deterrence, which was damaged by the inconclusive results of the 2006 war.以色列一直在研究，以恢復它的威脅的威懾力量，雖然遭到破壞，由不確定的結果， 2006年的戰爭。 The mysterious Israeli air strike in September against a suspected nuclear facility in northern Syria is seen as part of a renewed assertiveness.神秘以色列空襲在9月對一個可疑的核設施，在北部敘利亞被看作是一個組成部分，重新assertiveness 。 But could Hizballah also be in the Israeli military’s sights?但真主黨也將在以色列軍方的目光？

Last month, this reporter sat on a panel to discuss Hizballah at a conference hosted by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.上個月，記者就坐在一個小組，討論真主黨的一個會議上所設的華盛頓近東政策研究所。 The other panelist was Major General Moshe Kaplinsky, the outgoing deputy chief of staff of the Israeli army.其他小組成員是少將卡察夫kaplinsky ，即將卸任的副參謀長的以色列軍隊。 Before discussing Israel’s role, Kaplinsky offered up a series of recommendations that he believed would help neutralize and ultimately disarm Hizballah.然後才討論以色列的作用， kaplinsky提供了一系列的建議，他認為將有助於抵消，並最終解除真主黨。 They included strengthening the Lebanese army and expanding the mandate of the 13,300-strong United Nations peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, to areas beyond the south Lebanon border strip.這些建議包括加強黎巴嫩軍隊和擴大任務的13300 -強大的聯合國維持和平部隊，稱為聯黎部隊之外的地區黎巴嫩南部邊境地帶。 UNIFIL, he said, should mount patrols in Hizballah’s new stronghold in mountains north of the Litani river, the limit of UNIFIL’s area of operations.聯黎部隊時，他說，應該採取巡邏，在真主黨的新據點，在山上利塔尼河以北，限額，聯黎部隊的行動地區。 He added that UNIFIL must deploy along the border with Syria to check the flow of weapons smuggled into Lebanon by Hizballah.他補充說，聯黎部隊必須部署在邊界沿線與敘利亞，遏制流動性武器偷運到黎巴嫩的真主黨。

However, there is little chance of Kaplinsky’s wishes being fulfilled, analysts say.不過，有一點機會kaplinsky的願望正在實現，分析家說。 UNIFIL is under threat from groups inspired by Al-Qaeda — six members of the Spanish battalion were killed in June in a car bomb attack — and the peacekeeping force has no wish to make new enemies by deploying along the border with Syria and inside Hizballah’s military areas.聯黎部隊的威脅下，從集團的靈感蓋達-六名成員組成的西班牙語營長被打死， 6月的汽車炸彈襲擊-和維持和平部隊已無意作出新的敵人部署在邊界沿線與敘利亞和真主黨內'軍事領域。

Given those realities, perhaps it shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise that Kaplinsky also declared that Israel should preemptively attack Hizballah targets in Lebanon, such as new positions and arms convoys crossing the border from Syria.鑑於這種現實，也許它不應該來作為太大的驚訝kaplinsky還宣稱，以色列應先發製人攻擊真主黨目標，在黎巴嫩，如新的陣地和武器的車隊越過邊境從敘利亞。 “I approve preemptive strikes against Hizballah. "我贊成先發製人打擊真主黨。 We have to find the exact time.我們必須找到確切的時間。 This is one of the lessons I learned from before,” he said.這是一個教訓，我知道以前， "他說。

Kaplinsky has many years’ experience fighting Israel’s enemies in Lebanon, from 1982 when the Israeli army invaded to drive out the Palestine Liberation Organization then dominating south Lebanon. kaplinsky有很多年的經驗，與以色列戰鬥的敵人，在黎巴嫩，從1982年的時候，以色列軍隊入侵驅逐巴勒斯坦解放組織則主宰黎巴嫩南部。 In the early 1990s he commanded the elite Golani Brigade at a time when Hizballah was evolving into a formidable guerrilla fighting force dedicated to ousting the Israeli army from its occupation zone in south Lebanon.在20世紀90年代初，他指揮的精英戈蘭旅，在這個時候，真主黨是演變成一個強大的游擊隊作戰力量致力於推翻以色列軍隊從其佔領區在黎巴嫩南部。 Hizballah’s resistance campaign led to an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000.真主黨的抵抗運動，導致一名以色列從黎巴嫩撤軍，在2000年5月。 Hizballah units moved in to the vacuum and five months later kidnapped three Israeli soldiers from the Shebaa Farms, an Israeli-occupied mountainside running along Lebanon’s southeast border over which Lebanon claims sovereignty.真主黨單位進駐，以真空及5個月後，被綁架的3名以色列士兵，從薩巴阿農場，以色列佔領山腰沿黎巴嫩東南邊境以上，其中黎巴嫩聲稱主權。 Kaplinsky and other senior Israeli officers urged then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak to order a swift and punishing response to deter future attacks. kaplinsky和其他以色列高級人員呼籲當時的以色列總理巴拉克，以便迅速和懲治反應，以防止未來的攻擊。 Barak, however, refrained from a heavy retaliation, apparently worried about being sucked back into the Lebanese quagmire just five months after leaving it.巴拉克，但不沉重的報復，顯然是擔心被吸回黎巴嫩的泥潭，短短5個月後，離開它。

That restraint encouraged Hizballah over the next six years to build up an impressive military infrastructure of secret bunkers and rocket firing positions in the hills and valleys of south Lebanon, which was put to good use in last year’s war.克制鼓勵真主黨在未來6年，以建立一個令人印象深刻的軍事基礎設施的秘密地堡和火箭彈發射陣地，在丘陵和山谷的黎巴嫩南部，這是向好的使用在去年的戰爭。

Kaplinsky and other Israeli commanders say they cannot afford to repeat the same mistake. kaplinsky和其他以色列指揮官說，他們不能再重複同樣的錯誤。 Although Hizballah appears to have rearmed substantially, Kaplinsky believed the organization is not yet ready for another round with Israel because of its internal political battles with the US-backed Lebanese government.雖然真主黨似乎已經換裝大幅kaplinsky認為，該組織是尚未準備就緒，為新一輪與以色列，因為它的內部政治惡鬥與美國支持的黎巴嫩政府。 That suggests Israel has a window of opportunity to attack Hizballah’s military assets at little cost.這意味著以色列有機會之窗攻擊真主黨的軍事資產，以較小的代價。

Whether Israel launches preemptive raids or not, analysts agree that a second round between Israel and Hizballah is inevitable.以色列是否推出先發製人的突擊行動與否，分析人士一致認為，第二輪以色列與真主黨是不可避免的。 And Kaplinsky was confident that Israel would prevail against Hizballah in that event.和kaplinsky深信以色列將佔上風，對真主黨在這一事件。 “I believe that the next round will take us less time, [we will] send [into Lebanon] more quickly our ground forces. "我相信，下一輪將帶領我們更短的時間，我們會在發送[進入黎巴嫩]更迅速，我們的地面部隊。 We will have to take control of the area for some weeks, some months… to [disarm] Hizballah,” he said.我們將不得不採取控制該地區的幾個星期，有的幾個月… [解除]真主黨的， "他說。 Hardly encouraging words for the war-weary residents of south Lebanon.難以令人鼓舞的話，為飽受戰爭蹂躪的居民黎巴嫩南部。

The original version of this story misstated the month in which an Israeli air strike against a suspected nuclear facility in Syria occurred. 原來版本的這個故事，誤報月份在以色列空襲針對可疑的核設施在敘利亞發生。 It occurred in September. 它發生在9月。

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