Israeli soldiers secure the gate at the Rosh Hanikra border crossing between Israel and Lebanon October 15, 2007.以色列士兵在安全门上的Rosh hanikra边境通道的以色列和黎巴嫩之间2007年10月15日。

Gil Cohen Magen / Reuters吉尔的Magen科恩/路透

Is Israel laying the ground for preemptive air strikes against targets belonging to the militant Shi’ite group Hizballah in Lebanon?是以色列铺设地面先发制人的空中打击的对象，属于激进的什叶派团体真主党在黎巴嫩？

Tensions have been building along the Lebanon-Israel border in recent days.紧张局势已建设沿着黎巴嫩-以色列边界在最近几天。 The Israeli army was engaged last week in large-scale military exercises in northern Israel, close to the border with Lebanon, putting into practice the lessons learned from last year’s 34-day war against Hizballah.以色列军队从事上周在大规模的军事演习，在以色列北部靠近边界的黎巴嫩，就是实践的经验教训，从去年的34天的战争，反对真主党。 The exercises took place at the same time as Israeli jets conducted a growing number of mock air raids and overflights in Lebanese airspace.这次演习发生在同一时间，因为以色列飞机进行了越来越多的模拟空袭和飞越黎巴嫩领空。 Israeli aircraft fly in Lebanese airspace on a near daily basis, but last week Lebanese army anti-aircraft units fired at the jets for the first time since the end of the war.以色列飞机飞了黎巴嫩领空，对近期每日的依据，但上周的黎巴嫩陆军防空部队发射了在飞机以来的第一次战争的结束。

Hizballah, too, is reported to have carried out over the weekend its largest ever military maneuvers in south Lebanon.真主党，也就是据报已进行了超过周末，其规模最大的一次军事演习，在黎巴嫩南部。 According to a report Monday in Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar newspaper, Hizballah’s three-day exercise was a response to the Israeli army’s own maneuvers and was intended, according to quoted Hizballah sources, to “deter the enemy from undertaking any further Lebanese adventures.”据报道，周一在黎巴嫩的基地akhbar报纸，真主党的为期3天的演习是为了回应以色列军队自身的机动和用意，据援引真主党消息来源，以"吓阻敌人，从任何承诺进一步黎巴嫩冒险" 。

Accompanying all this heightened activity has been a flurry of reports in the Israeli media about Hizballah’s rearming, with claims that the Shi’ite group today possesses rockets that can strike Tel Aviv.伴随这一切都加剧了活动一直十分频繁的报导，在以色列媒体关于真主党的武装，声称什叶派集团今天拥有火箭能打击特拉维夫。 Last week, a United Nations report on Lebanon carried information provided by Israel that alleged Hizballah was more heavily armed than prior to the 2006 war, with hundreds of long-range rockets and three times as many anti-ship cruise missiles.上星期，联合国的一份报告对黎巴嫩进行提供的资料，以色列指控真主党是更全副武装，比之前以2006年战争中，数以百计的长程火箭和三倍多的反舰巡航导弹。 “Israel has stated that the nature and number of weapons in Hizballah’s control constitutes a strategic threat to its security and the safety of its citizens,” the report said. "以色列曾经表示，性质和数量的武器在真主党的控制，构成了战略威胁其安全和公民的安全， "该报告说。 And at a recent panel discussion in Washington, the outgoing deputy chief of staff of the Israeli army openly talked about the need to launch a preemptive strike against Hizballah targets in Lebanon sometime in the future.并在最近一次小组讨论会在华盛顿，即将卸任的副参谋长，以色列军队公开讲，有必要发动先发制人打击真主党目标，在黎巴嫩一段时间，在未来。

Hizballah’s leadership is playing down the prospect of renewed fighting with Israel.真主党的领导是低调的前景再次发生战斗，与以色列。 Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hizballah’s secretary-general, said in a speech last week that “these maneuvers and mock air raids and these Israeli drum beats, threats and browbeats which we hear from time to time do not affect us at all.”谢赫纳斯鲁拉，真主党的秘书长说，在一次讲话中上周表示， "这些演习，并进行模拟空袭和以色列的这些鼓节拍，威胁和browbeats我们听到不时并不影响我们在所有" 。

“Today, we are stronger [than last year] in terms of will, determination, faith, morals, finances, brains, measures, presence in the field and preparations for the confrontation. "今天，我们正强[比去年]而言，意志，决心，信念，道德的人，财，物开动脑筋，定措施，在外地的和准备工作，以便对抗。 Nothing intimidates us,” he said.没有恐吓我们， "他说。

Israel has been looking to restore its threat of deterrence, which was damaged by the inconclusive results of the 2006 war.以色列一直在研究，以恢复它的威胁的威慑力量，虽然遭到破坏，由不确定的结果， 2006年的战争。 The mysterious Israeli air strike in September against a suspected nuclear facility in northern Syria is seen as part of a renewed assertiveness.神秘以色列空袭在9月对一个可疑的核设施，在北部叙利亚被看作是一个组成部分，重新assertiveness 。 But could Hizballah also be in the Israeli military’s sights?但真主党也将在以色列军方的目光？

Last month, this reporter sat on a panel to discuss Hizballah at a conference hosted by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.上个月，记者就坐在一个小组，讨论真主党的一个会议上所设的华盛顿近东政策研究所。 The other panelist was Major General Moshe Kaplinsky, the outgoing deputy chief of staff of the Israeli army.其他小组成员是少将卡察夫kaplinsky ，即将卸任的副参谋长的以色列军队。 Before discussing Israel’s role, Kaplinsky offered up a series of recommendations that he believed would help neutralize and ultimately disarm Hizballah.然后才讨论以色列的作用， kaplinsky提供了一系列的建议，他认为将有助于抵消，并最终解除真主党。 They included strengthening the Lebanese army and expanding the mandate of the 13,300-strong United Nations peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, to areas beyond the south Lebanon border strip.这些建议包括加强黎巴嫩军队和扩大任务的13300 -强大的联合国维持和平部队，称为联黎部队之外的地区黎巴嫩南部边境地带。 UNIFIL, he said, should mount patrols in Hizballah’s new stronghold in mountains north of the Litani river, the limit of UNIFIL’s area of operations.联黎部队时，他说，应该采取巡逻，在真主党的新据点，在山上利塔尼河以北，限额，联黎部队的行动地区。 He added that UNIFIL must deploy along the border with Syria to check the flow of weapons smuggled into Lebanon by Hizballah.他补充说，联黎部队必须部署在边界沿线与叙利亚，遏制流动性武器偷运到黎巴嫩的真主党。

However, there is little chance of Kaplinsky’s wishes being fulfilled, analysts say.不过，有一点机会kaplinsky的愿望正在实现，分析家说。 UNIFIL is under threat from groups inspired by Al-Qaeda — six members of the Spanish battalion were killed in June in a car bomb attack — and the peacekeeping force has no wish to make new enemies by deploying along the border with Syria and inside Hizballah’s military areas.联黎部队的威胁下，从集团的灵感盖达-六名成员组成的西班牙语营长被打死， 6月的汽车炸弹袭击-和维持和平部队已无意作出新的敌人部署在边界沿线与叙利亚和真主党内'军事领域。

Given those realities, perhaps it shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise that Kaplinsky also declared that Israel should preemptively attack Hizballah targets in Lebanon, such as new positions and arms convoys crossing the border from Syria.鉴于这种现实，也许它不应该来作为太大的惊讶kaplinsky还宣称，以色列应先发制人攻击真主党目标，在黎巴嫩，如新的阵地和武器的车队越过边境从叙利亚。 “I approve preemptive strikes against Hizballah. "我赞成先发制人打击真主党。 We have to find the exact time.我们必须找到确切的时间。 This is one of the lessons I learned from before,” he said.这是一个教训，我知道以前， "他说。

Kaplinsky has many years’ experience fighting Israel’s enemies in Lebanon, from 1982 when the Israeli army invaded to drive out the Palestine Liberation Organization then dominating south Lebanon. kaplinsky有很多年的经验，与以色列战斗的敌人，在黎巴嫩，从1982年的时候，以色列军队入侵驱逐巴勒斯坦解放组织则主宰黎巴嫩南部。 In the early 1990s he commanded the elite Golani Brigade at a time when Hizballah was evolving into a formidable guerrilla fighting force dedicated to ousting the Israeli army from its occupation zone in south Lebanon.在20世纪90年代初，他指挥的精英戈兰旅，在这个时候，真主党是演变成一个强大的游击队作战力量致力于推翻以色列军队从其占领区在黎巴嫩南部。 Hizballah’s resistance campaign led to an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000.真主党的抵抗运动，导致一名以色列从黎巴嫩撤军，在2000年5月。 Hizballah units moved in to the vacuum and five months later kidnapped three Israeli soldiers from the Shebaa Farms, an Israeli-occupied mountainside running along Lebanon’s southeast border over which Lebanon claims sovereignty.真主党单位进驻，以真空及5个月后，被绑架的3名以色列士兵，从萨巴阿农场，以色列占领山腰沿黎巴嫩东南边境以上，其中黎巴嫩声称主权。 Kaplinsky and other senior Israeli officers urged then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak to order a swift and punishing response to deter future attacks. kaplinsky和其他以色列高级人员呼吁当时的以色列总理巴拉克，以便迅速和惩治反应，以防止未来的攻击。 Barak, however, refrained from a heavy retaliation, apparently worried about being sucked back into the Lebanese quagmire just five months after leaving it.巴拉克，但不沉重的报复，显然是担心被吸回黎巴嫩的泥潭，短短5个月后，离开它。

That restraint encouraged Hizballah over the next six years to build up an impressive military infrastructure of secret bunkers and rocket firing positions in the hills and valleys of south Lebanon, which was put to good use in last year’s war.克制鼓励真主党在未来6年，以建立一个令人印象深刻的军事基础设施的秘密地堡和火箭弹发射阵地，在丘陵和山谷的黎巴嫩南部，这是向好的使用在去年的战争。

Kaplinsky and other Israeli commanders say they cannot afford to repeat the same mistake. kaplinsky和其他以色列指挥官说，他们不能再重复同样的错误。 Although Hizballah appears to have rearmed substantially, Kaplinsky believed the organization is not yet ready for another round with Israel because of its internal political battles with the US-backed Lebanese government.虽然真主党似乎已经换装大幅kaplinsky认为，该组织是尚未准备就绪，为新一轮与以色列，因为它的内部政治恶斗与美国支持的黎巴嫩政府。 That suggests Israel has a window of opportunity to attack Hizballah’s military assets at little cost.这意味着以色列有机会之窗攻击真主党的军事资产，以较小的代价。

Whether Israel launches preemptive raids or not, analysts agree that a second round between Israel and Hizballah is inevitable.以色列是否推出先发制人的突击行动与否，分析人士一致认为，第二轮以色列与真主党是不可避免的。 And Kaplinsky was confident that Israel would prevail against Hizballah in that event.和kaplinsky深信以色列将占上风，对真主党在这一事件。 “I believe that the next round will take us less time, [we will] send [into Lebanon] more quickly our ground forces. "我相信，下一轮将带领我们更短的时间，我们会在发送[进入黎巴嫩]更迅速，我们的地面部队。 We will have to take control of the area for some weeks, some months… to [disarm] Hizballah,” he said.我们将不得不采取控制该地区的几个星期，有的几个月… [解除]真主党的， "他说。 Hardly encouraging words for the war-weary residents of south Lebanon.难以令人鼓舞的话，为饱受战争蹂躏的居民黎巴嫩南部。

The original version of this story misstated the month in which an Israeli air strike against a suspected nuclear facility in Syria occurred. 原来版本的这个故事，误报月份在以色列空袭针对可疑的核设施在叙利亚发生。 It occurred in September. 它发生在9月。

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