Iraq ‘Divide and Rule’ Strategy Called Shortsighted伊拉克'分而治之的策略所謂短視
Inter Press Service國際新聞 | Five years since US President George W. Bush’s infamous “Mission Accomplished” speech, critics say the administration has yet to show a credible way to actually “accomplish” the mission that could see a peaceful Iraq and a return home of US troops. |以來的五年，美國總統布什奇摩臭名昭著的“任務完成”的講話，批評人士說，當局仍未表現出一個可信的方法，實際上是“完成”使命，可以看到一個和平的伊拉克和返回家園的美軍士兵。
Though the 2007 revamping of the counter-insurgency strategy, known as the “surge,” has markedly reduced violence, political turmoil and ethno-sectarian strife still plague Iraq.雖然2007年的改造反叛亂戰略，被稱為“風” ，已顯著減少暴力，政治動盪和民族教派紛爭仍然困擾著伊拉克。
The US surge and its concurrent positive developments did create political space, but meaningful moves toward comprehensive political accords and reconciliation have yet to follow, said a pair of new Iraq reports from the International Crisis Group (ICG).美國大幅增加和其並行積極的事態發展並創造政治空間，但有意義的走向全面政治協定與和解尚未跟進，表示對新伊拉克的報告，從國際危機小組（那裡） 。
For example, the Sunni Awakening, or Sahwa movement, that helped to slow violence in much of Baghdad and Anbar province by bringing in former insurgents and incorporating them into US-funded militias, for example, leaves a new Sunni political landscape.例如，遜尼派的覺醒，或sahwa運動，有助於緩慢，暴力在許多巴格達和安巴爾省，使前在反叛分子和他們納入到我們資助的民兵，舉例來說，留下了新的遜尼派政治景觀。
But that landscape, with all of its advantages for bringing stability – and thereby aiding the US occupation – has failed to transition into the politics of the Iraqi central government.但景觀，與它的所有優勢，為實現穩定-從而協助美國佔領-沒有過渡到政治的伊拉克中央政府。 Frustration with those failures creates a tense atmosphere that even US officials acknowledge as being “fragile and reversible.”挫折與這些失敗造成的緊張氣氛，即使美國官員承認，作為“脆弱的和可逆的” 。
“Tribal elements and former insurgents may become disillusioned with lack of political progress, inadequate steps toward economic and social inclusion, and what they perceive as continued dominance by Iran and its Shi’ite proxies,” said the first IGC report, “Iraq After the Surge I: The New Sunni Landscape.” “部落分子和前叛亂分子可能會成為幻滅缺乏政治上的進步，不足的步驟，對經濟和社會的包容性，以及他們的看法，作為繼續主導對伊朗和什葉派其代理人，說： ”第一次政府間委員會的報告， “伊拉克後，風：新遜尼派景觀“ 。
So while the larger insurgent-US battles and wider Sunni-Shia fighting have abated, the new, smaller, more subdivided groups continue to bump heads.因此，雖然規模較大的武裝分子-我們的戰鬥和更廣泛的遜尼派-什葉派穆斯林的戰鬥已經減弱，新的，更小，更細分群體繼續撞元首。 The US policy of tending to choose between these groups with either economic or military support, said the report, does not constitute meaningful steps toward political reconciliation.美國的政策趨向之間作出選擇這些群體無論是經濟或軍事支持的報告表示，並不構成有意義的步驟，走向政治和解。
The IGC report notes that the US “divide-and-rule tactics” reinforce the new fault lines in society, and by benefiting only one group, create resentment among the others.政府間委員會的報告指出，美國的“分而治之策略” ，加強新的斷層線在社會上，由受益的只有一組，創造反感別人。
“Ultimately, stability will require that such rivalries be mediated neither through violence nor buy-off, but by functional, legitimate state institutions,” said the report. “最終，穩定的需要，這種互相攀比的介導既不是通過暴力，也沒有購買過，但在由功能團體，合法的國家機構， ”報告說。 That, in turn, requires the US to support “a genuinely inclusive political system.”這反過來又要求美國支持“一個真正具有包容性的政治制度” 。
Another incident of US favoritism that could lead to sharp divides and potential large-scale violence is the intra-Shia power struggle for control of southern Iraq.另一起事件中美國的人情可能導致尖銳的分歧和潛在的大規模的暴力是內部權力鬥爭的什葉派穆斯林控制的伊拉克南部。
Backed by US air power, an offensive by the two main power-sharing partners in the Iraqi central government, Da’wa and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, in the southern strongholds of militant anti-US cleric Moqtada al-Sadr was designed to cripple Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia ahead of provincial elections scheduled for this fall.背靠美國的空中力量，進攻是由兩個主要的權力分享的合作夥伴，在伊拉克，中央政府，達瓦和伊斯蘭最高理事會伊拉克，在南部的據點，好戰的反moqtada我們教士薩德爾的支持者，旨在削弱薩德爾和他的邁赫迪軍民兵提前省級選舉定於今年秋天上市。
When the advance was thwarted by Sadrist fighters, the ruling Shia parties took up a piece of legislation that was aimed at scuttling Sadr’s bid in the elections by making it illegal for parties with militias to participate.當預先被挫敗sadrist戰鬥機，執政的什葉派政黨了一條法例，這是旨在scuttling薩德爾的競標價格在選舉中，使非法締約方與民兵參與。
Council on Foreign Relations fellow Mohammad Bazzi wrote in the Washington Times that though Sadrists and the Mahdi Army were not named in the legislation, it is clearly a misguided attempt to isolate them – noting that other parties such as ISCI are not hampered though they, too, have militias.外交關係理事會研究員穆罕默德bazzi中寫道，華盛頓時報指出，雖然sadrists和邁赫迪軍不點名的立法，這顯然是錯誤的，企圖孤立他們-注意到其他各方，如i sci是不受阻礙，雖然他們也，有民兵的武裝。
“It’s virtually impossible to wipe out the Sadrist trend, which is a social, political, and military movement that enjoys wide support, particularly among young and poor Shi’ites,” wrote Bazzi. “這幾乎是不可能的，消滅了sadrist的趨勢，這是一個社會，政治和軍事的運動，得到廣泛支持，特別是年輕人和窮人的什葉派寫道， ” bazzi 。
“The consequences of trying to isolate Sheik al-Sadr and his political movement are profound,” said Bazzi, saying that the move would end a Sadr cease-fire and drastically increase violence aimed at both the US and the central Iraqi government. “的後果，試圖孤立酋長薩德爾的支持者和他的政治運動，是深刻，說： ” bazzi說，此舉將結束薩德爾停火和大幅增加的暴力行為，目的是在美國和中央的伊拉克政府。
Noting the situation in the second report, “Iraq After the Surge II: The Need For a New Political Strategy,” ICG recommends that the Iraqi government hold provincial elections on the original schedule of Oct. 1, 2008, and “ensure that these are inclusive of all parties, groups and individuals that publicly accept nonviolence (rather than, at this stage, disband their militias).”注意到情況在第二次報告， “伊拉克後，風二：需要一項新的政治策略， ”國際協調小組建議，伊拉克政府舉行省級選舉對原定的2008年10月1日， “確保這些都是其中包括各黨派，團體和個人，公開接受非暴力（而不是在這個階段，解散其民兵） “ 。
This runs contrary to the law before the Iraqi parliament, and would allow incorporation of Sadrists into above-board politics.這違背了違反法律之前，伊拉克議會，並允許納入sadrists到上述委員會的政治。
“If [the Sadrists are going to sweep the South], that needs to be allowed to happen – so long as it’s the result of a free and fair election and not at the barrel of a gun,” Jason Gluck of the US Institute of Peace (USIP) told IPS. “如果[ sadrists去打掃南] ，必須允許這種情況發生-只要它的結果是一個自由和公平的選舉，而不是在槍桿子， ”賈森格魯克的美國和平研究所（ usip ）告訴IPS 。
“If you want to talk about political progress, there are many justifications for confronting the armed militias, particularly the Mahdi Army,” said Gluck. “如果你想要談論政治上的進步，有很多的理由，所面臨的武裝民兵，特別是邁赫迪軍說： ”格魯克。 “But that confrontation must be coupled with political opportunity and engagement. “但對抗，必須再加上政治的機會與接觸。 The Sadrists need to be ensured that if they comply, there are going to be free and fair elections.”該sadrists必須確保，如果他們遵守，有要自由和公正的選舉“ 。
“My criticism would be that there has not been this olive branch – this welcoming into the political process – that’s simultaneous with the military engagement,” continued Gluck, who is a rule-of-law adviser with USIP. “我的批評，將不存在，這橄欖枝-這歡迎到政治進程中-的同時，與軍方接觸，”繼續格魯克，誰是法治的顧問與u s ip。 “It has not been made clear that while Sadr and the Mahdi Army must disarm, or at the very least disavow violence [as with the ICG proposal], if they do that they will be welcomed into the political process.” “它並未作出明確表示，薩德爾和邁赫迪軍必須解除武裝，或在至少抵賴暴力[作為與國際協調小組的建議] ，如果他們這樣做，他們會受到歡迎，納入政治進程” 。
Gluck acknowledged that the dealings of Sadrist members of parliament – in line with the general Sadrist Iraqi nationalism – already show that they are capable of meaningful political engagement, most importantly across sectarian lines.格魯克承認，交易sadrist的國會議員-在符合一般s adrist伊拉克的民族主義-已經表明，它們有能力進行有意義的政治參與，最重要的跨宗派線。
“We can promote that by encouraging Sadr to rely on the political process and not on the barrel of a gun,” he said. “我們可以推動這項鼓勵薩德爾依賴於政治進程，而不是槍桿子， ”他說。
The IGC report on the new politics needed in Iraq reinforced the importance of the provincial elections as a stepping stone toward true reconciliation.政府間委員會的報告就新的政治需要在伊拉克鋼筋的重要性，該省級選舉作為踏腳石，走向真正的和解。
“If genuinely free and fair and carried out in a secure environment, these hold the potential of beginning to alter the political landscape by bringing a new generation and class of political leaders to the fore,” it said. “如果真正的自由和公正的進行，在一個安全的環境，這些持有的潛力，開始改變政治景觀帶來了新的一代和階級的政治領袖前列， ”它說。
Nearly all observers agree that action needs to be taken soon in the relative calm provided by the US surge strategy.幾乎所有的觀察家同意，需要採取行動，盡快在相對的平靜所提供的美國激增的策略。
“There is reason to fear this is only a temporary salve and that underlying issues will again come to the fore,” said the IGC report. “我們有理由擔心這只是一個臨時salve和潛在的問題將再次來前列，說： ”政府間委員會的報告。 “Whatever political space the surge tore open is likely to narrow once again.” “無論政治空間的激增，撕毀開放可能是狹隘的再次” 。
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