Iraq ‘Divide and Rule’ Strategy Called Shortsighted伊拉克'分而治之的策略所谓短视
Inter Press Service国际新闻 | Five years since US President George W. Bush’s infamous “Mission Accomplished” speech, critics say the administration has yet to show a credible way to actually “accomplish” the mission that could see a peaceful Iraq and a return home of US troops. |以来的五年，美国总统布什奇摩臭名昭著的“任务完成”的讲话，批评人士说，当局仍未表现出一个可信的方法，实际上是“完成”使命，可以看到一个和平的伊拉克和返回家园的美军士兵。
Though the 2007 revamping of the counter-insurgency strategy, known as the “surge,” has markedly reduced violence, political turmoil and ethno-sectarian strife still plague Iraq.虽然2007年的改造反叛乱战略，被称为“风” ，已显着减少暴力，政治动荡和民族教派纷争仍然困扰着伊拉克。
The US surge and its concurrent positive developments did create political space, but meaningful moves toward comprehensive political accords and reconciliation have yet to follow, said a pair of new Iraq reports from the International Crisis Group (ICG).美国大幅增加和其并行积极的事态发展并创造政治空间，但有意义的走向全面政治协定与和解尚未跟进，表示对新伊拉克的报告，从国际危机小组（那里） 。
For example, the Sunni Awakening, or Sahwa movement, that helped to slow violence in much of Baghdad and Anbar province by bringing in former insurgents and incorporating them into US-funded militias, for example, leaves a new Sunni political landscape.例如，逊尼派的觉醒，或sahwa运动，有助于缓慢，暴力在许多巴格达和安巴尔省，使前在反叛分子和他们纳入到我们资助的民兵，举例来说，留下了新的逊尼派政治景观。
But that landscape, with all of its advantages for bringing stability – and thereby aiding the US occupation – has failed to transition into the politics of the Iraqi central government.但景观，与它的所有优势，为实现稳定-从而协助美国占领-没有过渡到政治的伊拉克中央政府。 Frustration with those failures creates a tense atmosphere that even US officials acknowledge as being “fragile and reversible.”挫折与这些失败造成的紧张气氛，即使美国官员承认，作为“脆弱的和可逆的” 。
“Tribal elements and former insurgents may become disillusioned with lack of political progress, inadequate steps toward economic and social inclusion, and what they perceive as continued dominance by Iran and its Shi’ite proxies,” said the first IGC report, “Iraq After the Surge I: The New Sunni Landscape.” “部落分子和前叛乱分子可能会成为幻灭缺乏政治上的进步，不足的步骤，对经济和社会的包容性，以及他们的看法，作为继续主导对伊朗和什叶派其代理人，说： ”第一次政府间委员会的报告， “伊拉克后，风：新逊尼派景观“ 。
So while the larger insurgent-US battles and wider Sunni-Shia fighting have abated, the new, smaller, more subdivided groups continue to bump heads.因此，虽然规模较大的武装分子-我们的战斗和更广泛的逊尼派-什叶派穆斯林的战斗已经减弱，新的，更小，更细分群体继续撞元首。 The US policy of tending to choose between these groups with either economic or military support, said the report, does not constitute meaningful steps toward political reconciliation.美国的政策趋向之间作出选择这些群体无论是经济或军事支持的报告表示，并不构成有意义的步骤，走向政治和解。
The IGC report notes that the US “divide-and-rule tactics” reinforce the new fault lines in society, and by benefiting only one group, create resentment among the others.政府间委员会的报告指出，美国的“分而治之策略” ，加强新的断层线在社会上，由受益的只有一组，创造反感别人。
“Ultimately, stability will require that such rivalries be mediated neither through violence nor buy-off, but by functional, legitimate state institutions,” said the report. “最终，稳定的需要，这种互相攀比的介导既不是通过暴力，也没有购买过，但在由功能团体，合法的国家机构， ”报告说。 That, in turn, requires the US to support “a genuinely inclusive political system.”这反过来又要求美国支持“一个真正具有包容性的政治制度” 。
Another incident of US favoritism that could lead to sharp divides and potential large-scale violence is the intra-Shia power struggle for control of southern Iraq.另一起事件中美国的人情可能导致尖锐的分歧和潜在的大规模的暴力是内部权力斗争的什叶派穆斯林控制的伊拉克南部。
Backed by US air power, an offensive by the two main power-sharing partners in the Iraqi central government, Da’wa and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, in the southern strongholds of militant anti-US cleric Moqtada al-Sadr was designed to cripple Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia ahead of provincial elections scheduled for this fall.背靠美国的空中力量，进攻是由两个主要的权力分享的合作伙伴，在伊拉克，中央政府，达瓦和伊斯兰最高理事会伊拉克，在南部的据点，好战的反moqtada我们教士萨德尔的支持者，旨在削弱萨德尔和他的迈赫迪军民兵提前省级选举定于今年秋天上市。
When the advance was thwarted by Sadrist fighters, the ruling Shia parties took up a piece of legislation that was aimed at scuttling Sadr’s bid in the elections by making it illegal for parties with militias to participate.当预先被挫败sadrist战斗机，执政的什叶派政党了一条法例，这是旨在scuttling萨德尔的竞标价格在选举中，使非法缔约方与民兵参与。
Council on Foreign Relations fellow Mohammad Bazzi wrote in the Washington Times that though Sadrists and the Mahdi Army were not named in the legislation, it is clearly a misguided attempt to isolate them – noting that other parties such as ISCI are not hampered though they, too, have militias.外交关系理事会研究员穆罕默德bazzi中写道，华盛顿时报指出，虽然sadrists和迈赫迪军不点名的立法，这显然是错误的，企图孤立他们-注意到其他各方，如i sci是不受阻碍，虽然他们也，有民兵的武装。
“It’s virtually impossible to wipe out the Sadrist trend, which is a social, political, and military movement that enjoys wide support, particularly among young and poor Shi’ites,” wrote Bazzi. “这几乎是不可能的，消灭了sadrist的趋势，这是一个社会，政治和军事的运动，得到广泛支持，特别是年轻人和穷人的什叶派写道， ” bazzi 。
“The consequences of trying to isolate Sheik al-Sadr and his political movement are profound,” said Bazzi, saying that the move would end a Sadr cease-fire and drastically increase violence aimed at both the US and the central Iraqi government. “的后果，试图孤立酋长萨德尔的支持者和他的政治运动，是深刻，说： ” bazzi说，此举将结束萨德尔停火和大幅增加的暴力行为，目的是在美国和中央的伊拉克政府。
Noting the situation in the second report, “Iraq After the Surge II: The Need For a New Political Strategy,” ICG recommends that the Iraqi government hold provincial elections on the original schedule of Oct. 1, 2008, and “ensure that these are inclusive of all parties, groups and individuals that publicly accept nonviolence (rather than, at this stage, disband their militias).”注意到情况在第二次报告， “伊拉克后，风二：需要一项新的政治策略， ”国际协调小组建议，伊拉克政府举行省级选举对原定的2008年10月1日， “确保这些都是其中包括各党派，团体和个人，公开接受非暴力（而不是在这个阶段，解散其民兵） “ 。
This runs contrary to the law before the Iraqi parliament, and would allow incorporation of Sadrists into above-board politics.这违背了违反法律之前，伊拉克议会，并允许纳入sadrists到上述委员会的政治。
“If [the Sadrists are going to sweep the South], that needs to be allowed to happen – so long as it’s the result of a free and fair election and not at the barrel of a gun,” Jason Gluck of the US Institute of Peace (USIP) told IPS. “如果[ sadrists去打扫南] ，必须允许这种情况发生-只要它的结果是一个自由和公平的选举，而不是在枪杆子， ”贾森格鲁克的美国和平研究所（ usip ）告诉IPS 。
“If you want to talk about political progress, there are many justifications for confronting the armed militias, particularly the Mahdi Army,” said Gluck. “如果你想要谈论政治上的进步，有很多的理由，所面临的武装民兵，特别是迈赫迪军说： ”格鲁克。 “But that confrontation must be coupled with political opportunity and engagement. “但对抗，必须再加上政治的机会与接触。 The Sadrists need to be ensured that if they comply, there are going to be free and fair elections.”该sadrists必须确保，如果他们遵守，有要自由和公正的选举“ 。
“My criticism would be that there has not been this olive branch – this welcoming into the political process – that’s simultaneous with the military engagement,” continued Gluck, who is a rule-of-law adviser with USIP. “我的批评，将不存在，这橄榄枝-这欢迎到政治进程中-的同时，与军方接触，”继续格鲁克，谁是法治的顾问与u s ip。 “It has not been made clear that while Sadr and the Mahdi Army must disarm, or at the very least disavow violence [as with the ICG proposal], if they do that they will be welcomed into the political process.” “它并未作出明确表示，萨德尔和迈赫迪军必须解除武装，或在至少抵赖暴力[作为与国际协调小组的建议] ，如果他们这样做，他们会受到欢迎，纳入政治进程” 。
Gluck acknowledged that the dealings of Sadrist members of parliament – in line with the general Sadrist Iraqi nationalism – already show that they are capable of meaningful political engagement, most importantly across sectarian lines.格鲁克承认，交易sadrist的国会议员-在符合一般s adrist伊拉克的民族主义-已经表明，它们有能力进行有意义的政治参与，最重要的跨宗派线。
“We can promote that by encouraging Sadr to rely on the political process and not on the barrel of a gun,” he said. “我们可以推动这项鼓励萨德尔依赖于政治进程，而不是枪杆子， ”他说。
The IGC report on the new politics needed in Iraq reinforced the importance of the provincial elections as a stepping stone toward true reconciliation.政府间委员会的报告就新的政治需要在伊拉克钢筋的重要性，该省级选举作为踏脚石，走向真正的和解。
“If genuinely free and fair and carried out in a secure environment, these hold the potential of beginning to alter the political landscape by bringing a new generation and class of political leaders to the fore,” it said. “如果真正的自由和公正的进行，在一个安全的环境，这些持有的潜力，开始改变政治景观带来了新的一代和阶级的政治领袖前列， ”它说。
Nearly all observers agree that action needs to be taken soon in the relative calm provided by the US surge strategy.几乎所有的观察家同意，需要采取行动，尽快在相对的平静所提供的美国激增的策略。
“There is reason to fear this is only a temporary salve and that underlying issues will again come to the fore,” said the IGC report. “我们有理由担心这只是一个临时salve和潜在的问题将再次来前列，说： ”政府间委员会的报告。 “Whatever political space the surge tore open is likely to narrow once again.” “无论政治空间的激增，撕毁开放可能是狭隘的再次” 。
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