Irak `verdeelt en beslist' Strategie Genoemd Shortsighted
Inter Persdienst | Vijf jaar sinds de V.S. President George W. Van Bush zegt de beruchte „Opdracht Verwezenlijkte“ toespraak, critici het beleid heeft om een geloofwaardige manier nog te tonen de opdracht „om eigenlijk te verwezenlijken“ die vreedzaam Irak en naar huis terug:keren van de V.S. kon zien. troepen.
Hoewel opknappen van 2007 van de counter-insurgency strategie, bekend als de „schommeling,“ duidelijk geweld, politieke opschudding en ethno-sectarische geschil nog plaag Irak heeft verminderd.
De V.S. de schommeling en zijn gezamenlijke positieve ontwikkelingen leidden tot politieke ruimte, maar de zinvolle bewegingen naar uitvoerige politieke overeenstemming en verzoening hebben nog te volgen, zeiden een paar nieuwe rapporten van Irak van de Internationale Groep van de Crisis (ICG).
Bijvoorbeeld, het Sunni verlaat Wekken, of de beweging Sahwa, die hielpen om geweld in veel van provincie te vertragen Bagdad en Anbar door in vroegere insurgents te brengen en hen op te nemen in de V.S. - gefinancierde milities, bijvoorbeeld, een nieuw Sunni politiek landschap.
Maar dat landschap, met elk van zijn voordelen om stabiliteit te brengen - en daardoor de V.S. te helpen. beroep - aan overgang in de politiek van de Iraakse centrale overheid heeft ontbroken. De frustratie met die mislukkingen leidt tot een gespannen atmosfeer die zelfs de V.S. de ambtenaren erkennen zoals zijnd breekbaar en omkeerbaar „.“
De „stammenelementen en vroegere insurgents kunnen ontgoocheld worden met gebrek aan politieke vooruitgang, ontoereikende stappen naar economische en sociale opneming, en wat zij als voortdurende overheersing door' ite volmachten Iran en zijn Shi waarnemen,“ zei het eerste IGC- rapport, „Irak na Schommeling I: Het nieuwe Sunni Landschap.“
Terwijl zo de grotere opstandig-V.S. de slagen en het bredere sunni-Sjiïtische vechten hebben, nieuw verminderd, kleiner, blijven de meer onderverdeelde groepen hoofden stoten. De V.S. het beleid van het neigen om tussen deze groepen met of economische of militaire steun te kiezen, zei het rapport, vormt geen zinvolle stappen naar politieke verzoening.
Het IGC- rapport merkt op dat de V.S. „de waterscheiding-en-regeltactiek“ versterkt de nieuwe foutenlijnen in de maatschappij, en door slechts aan één groep ten goede te komen, cre�ërt wrok onder anderen.
„Uiteindelijk, zal de stabiliteit vereisen dat dergelijke rivaliteit noch door geweld noch kopen-weg wordt bemiddeld, maar door functionele, wettige staat zeiden de instellingen,“ het rapport. Dat, beurtelings, vereist de V.S. om een „echt inclusief politiek systeem te steunen.“
Een ander incident van de V.S. favoritism that could lead to sharp divides and potential large-scale violence is the intra-Shia power struggle for control of southern Iraq.
Backed by U.S. air power, an offensive by the two main power-sharing partners in the Iraqi central government, Da’wa and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, in the southern strongholds of militant anti-U.S. cleric Moqtada al-Sadr was designed to cripple Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia ahead of provincial elections scheduled for this fall.
When the advance was thwarted by Sadrist fighters, the ruling Shia parties took up a piece of legislation that was aimed at scuttling Sadr’s bid in the elections by making it illegal for parties with militias to participate.
Council on Foreign Relations fellow Mohammad Bazzi wrote in the Washington Times that though Sadrists and the Mahdi Army were not named in the legislation, it is clearly a misguided attempt to isolate them – noting that other parties such as ISCI are not hampered though they, too, have militias.
“It’s virtually impossible to wipe out the Sadrist trend, which is a social, political, and military movement that enjoys wide support, particularly among young and poor Shi’ites,” wrote Bazzi.
“The consequences of trying to isolate Sheik al-Sadr and his political movement are profound,” said Bazzi, saying that the move would end a Sadr cease-fire and drastically increase violence aimed at both the U.S. and the central Iraqi government.
Noting the situation in the second report, “Iraq After the Surge II: The Need For a New Political Strategy,” ICG recommends that the Iraqi government hold provincial elections on the original schedule of Oct. 1, 2008, and “ensure that these are inclusive of all parties, groups and individuals that publicly accept nonviolence (rather than, at this stage, disband their militias).”
This runs contrary to the law before the Iraqi parliament, and would allow incorporation of Sadrists into above-board politics.
“If [the Sadrists are going to sweep the South], that needs to be allowed to happen – so long as it’s the result of a free and fair election and not at the barrel of a gun,” Jason Gluck of the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) told IPS.
“If you want to talk about political progress, there are many justifications for confronting the armed militias, particularly the Mahdi Army,” said Gluck. “But that confrontation must be coupled with political opportunity and engagement. The Sadrists need to be ensured that if they comply, there are going to be free and fair elections.”
“My criticism would be that there has not been this olive branch – this welcoming into the political process – that’s simultaneous with the military engagement,” continued Gluck, who is a rule-of-law adviser with USIP. “It has not been made clear that while Sadr and the Mahdi Army must disarm, or at the very least disavow violence [as with the ICG proposal], if they do that they will be welcomed into the political process.”
Gluck acknowledged that the dealings of Sadrist members of parliament – in line with the general Sadrist Iraqi nationalism – already show that they are capable of meaningful political engagement, most importantly across sectarian lines.
“We can promote that by encouraging Sadr to rely on the political process and not on the barrel of a gun,” he said.
The IGC report on the new politics needed in Iraq reinforced the importance of the provincial elections as a stepping stone toward true reconciliation.
“If genuinely free and fair and carried out in a secure environment, these hold the potential of beginning to alter the political landscape by bringing a new generation and class of political leaders to the fore,” it said.
Nearly all observers agree that action needs to be taken soon in the relative calm provided by the U.S. surge strategy.
“There is reason to fear this is only a temporary salve and that underlying issues will again come to the fore,” said the IGC report. “Whatever political space the surge tore open is likely to narrow once again.”
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This entry was posted on Monday, May 5th, 2008 at 8:36 am and is filed under War & Terrorism News . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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