By Robert Fisk in Teir Dibba, south Lebanon由羅伯特菲斯克在teir dibba ，黎巴嫩南部
Tuesday, 8 April 2008 週二， 2008年4月8日

The Shia “martyrs” of this hill village are normally killed in the dangerous, stony landscape of southern Lebanon, in Israeli air raids or invasions or attacks from the sea.什葉派的"烈士"這個山村的通常是死亡的危險，石質景觀黎巴嫩南部地區，在以色列的空襲或入侵或攻擊，從海中。 The Hizbollah duly honours them.真主黨正式授勳。 But the body of the latest Shia fighter to be buried here – from the local Hashem family – was flown back to Lebanon last month from Iran.但該機構的最新什葉派戰士被埋葬在這裡-從地方神家族-是飛回黎巴嫩上個月從伊朗。

He was hailed as a martyr in the village Husseiniya mosque but the Hizbollah would say no more.他被稱為烈士，在村里husseiniya清真寺，但真主黨會說，沒有更多。 For when a Lebanese is killed in live firing exercises in the Islamic Republic, his death brings almost as many questions as mourners.為當一名黎巴嫩人死亡，在實彈演習中，伊斯蘭共和國，他的去世帶來了幾乎同樣多的問題，作為悼念。 Yet it is an open secret south of the Litani river that thousands of young men have been leaving their villages for military training in Iran.但它是一個公開的秘密南部利塔尼河說，數千名年輕男子已經離開自己的村莊，為軍事訓練在伊朗。 Up to 300 men are taken to Beirut en route to Tehran each month and the operation has been running since November of 2006; in all, as many as 4,500 Hizbollah members have been sent for three-month sessions of live-fire ammunition and rocket exercises to create a nucleus of Iranian-trained guerrillas for the “next” Israeli-Hizbollah war.多達300名官兵採取貝魯特飛往德黑蘭每個月和運作已經運行了自2006年11月，在所有的，有多達4500名真主黨成員已派出3個月的會議實彈射擊彈藥和火箭演習創造一個核伊朗訓練有素的游擊隊員為"下一步"以色列和真主黨的戰爭。

Whether this frightening conflict takes place will depend on President Bush’s behaviour.無論這個可怕的衝突發生，將取決於布什總統的行為。 If America – or its proxy, Israel – bombs Iran, the response is likely to be swift and will come from the deep underground bunkers that the Hizbollah has been building in the fields and beside the roadways east and south of Jezzine.如果美國-或其代理人，以色列-炸彈，伊朗的反應很可能會被迅速將來自深層地下掩體，說真主黨已在建設領域和旁邊巷道的東部和南部的傑津。

For months, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbollah leader, has been warning Israel that his organisation has a “surprise” new weapon in its armoury and there are few in Lebanon who do not suspect that this is a new Iranian-developed ground-to-air missile – rockets which may at last challenge Israel’s air supremacy over Lebanon.幾個月來，賽義德哈桑納斯魯拉，真主黨領導人已經警告以色列說，他的組織已經"突擊"的新武器，在其軍火庫，並有少數在黎巴嫩，他們不懷疑這是一個新的伊朗研製的地面至空空導彈-火箭可能會在最後的挑戰，以色列的空中優勢戰勝黎巴嫩。 For more than 30 years, Israel’s fighter-bombers have had the skies to themselves, losing only two aircraft – one to a primitive Palestinian SAM-7 shoulder-fired missile, the other to Syrian anti-aircraft guns – during and after its 1982 invasion. 30多年前，以色列的戰鬥轟炸機有天空，以自己的，虧損只有兩班航機-一到原始巴勒斯坦薩姆- 7肩上發射的導彈外，其他敘利亞高射砲-期間和之後，其1982年入侵。

After its 1980-88 war with Iraq, Iran introduced a new generation of weapons, one of which – a development of a Chinese sea-to-sea missile – almost sank an Israeli corvette in the last Hizbollah-Israeli war in 2006.之後，其1980年至1988年兩伊戰爭，伊朗推出了新一代的武器，其中之一是-一個發展中海，以海飛彈-幾乎沉沒，一名以色列護衛艦，在過去，真主黨和以色列戰爭，在2 0 06年推出。

Can the Hizbollah shoot Israeli jets out of the sky in the event of another conflict?可以真主黨射擊以色列飛機失控天空，在發生另一場衝突？ It is a question much discussed within the 13,000-strong United Nations force in southern Lebanon – essentially a Nato-led army, which contains French, Spanish and Italian troops as well as Chinese, Indian and sundry other contingents – which would find itself sandwiched between the two antagonists.這是一個問題很多的討論， 13000 -強大的聯合國部隊在黎巴嫩南部的-基本上是一個由北約領導的軍隊，其中載有法語，西班牙語和意大利語部隊以及中國，印度和其他雜項其他特遣隊-這將發現自己夾兩個拮抗劑。

There are no armed Hizbollah fighters in their area of operations – Nasrallah respects the UN resolution which placed the peacekeepers between the Israeli border and the Litani in 2006 – but the UN mission, along with its soldiers, will be gravely endangered in the event of another war.有沒有武裝真主黨戰士在自己的業務地區-納斯魯拉尊重聯合國的決議，把維和與以色列的邊界和利塔尼在2 006年-但聯合國特派團的支持，再加上它的士兵，將嚴重威脅了這項活動的另一個戰爭。

If its aircraft could no longer bomb at will over Lebanon without fear of being destroyed, would Israel stage another costly land invasion – highly unlikely after the bloodying its troops took in 2006 – or use its own ground-to-ground missiles on Lebanon?如果它的飛機再也無法在炸彈將超過黎巴嫩不必擔心被破壞，將以色列的另一個階段昂貴的土地入侵-極不可能後， b loodying其總兵力在2 006年-或使用自己的地面到地面導彈對黎巴嫩？ For if the latter option were chosen, it would bring a whole new dimension to Lebanon’s repeated wars.如果後一種選擇，選擇，它會帶來一個全新的層面黎巴嫩的多次戰爭。 Long-range missiles have proved hopelessly inaccurate in Middle East conflicts and the Iran-Iraq war.長程飛彈已證明毫無希望地不準確，在中東衝突和伊朗-伊拉克戰爭。 But whatever political sins they still commit, the Lebanese – despite their current crisis – appear to have rejected any return to civil war.但是，不管政治的罪過，他們仍然承諾，黎巴嫩-儘管它們目前的危機-似乎已拒絕任何回報內戰。 In such a war, no one could repeat the old lies about “pinpoint accuracy”.在這樣一場戰爭，沒有人可以重複舊的謊言， "精確" 。

The government of Fouad Siniora may be trapped in its own “Green Zone” in central Beirut – it even refused to attend the Arab League summit in Damascus – and parliament is suspended after 17 vain sessions to elect a president.政府辛紐拉可能是被困在自己的"綠區" ，在貝魯特市中心的-它甚至拒絕參加阿拉伯聯盟首腦會議在大馬士革-和議會是暫停後， 1 7白費會，以選出一位總統。 A series of prominent Lebanese MPs and journalists have been murdered or attacked since 2005 but Syrian troops have left and the Lebanese army still manages to keep a form of order on the streets.一系列著名的黎巴嫩國會議員和記者被殺害或攻擊自2005年起，但敘利亞軍隊已離開和黎巴嫩軍隊仍然能保持一種形式的，為了開上大街。 However, the Syrian intelligence presence has been maintained in Lebanon – and Syria is Iran’s only ally in the Arab world.不過，敘利亞情報機構一直維持在黎巴嫩-敘利亞是伊朗的盟友，只有在阿拉伯世界。 This does not mean that war is inevitable.這並不意味著戰爭是不可避免的。

So the future of Lebanon remains – as it did in 2006 – in the hands of the United States and Iran.因此，黎巴嫩的未來仍然是-它在2 006年-在政府手中，美國和伊朗。 Just as the Israelis constantly warn of war, so the Hizbollah still promises revenge for the car-bomb murder of its former intelligence officer Imad Mougnieh in Damascus in February.正如以色列人不斷發出警告，戰爭，因此，真主黨仍承諾報仇，為汽車炸彈謀殺其前情報官員伊馬德mougnieh在大馬士革2月。 Regularly, the Israelis warn that they will respond to attacks but that they will “choose the moment and the place and the means”.定期，以色列人都警告說，它們將回應攻擊，但他們將"選擇時機，地點和方式" 。

And sure enough – following the Hizbollah’s pattern of using Israel’s own words – Nasrallah said on 24 March that the Hizbollah would “choose the moment and the place and the means” to retaliate for Mougnieh’s death.果然-繼真主黨的模式，利用以色列自己的話來說-納斯魯拉說，對3月2 4日表示，真主黨將"選擇時機，地點和方式"報復mo ugnieh的死因。

And each month, the Hizballoh improves its new bunkers north of the Litani.每一個月的時間內， hizballoh提高了其新的掩體以北的利塔尼。 Some now sprout aerials but they may be “dummies” for Israel’s pilots to attack.現在有些萌芽天線，但他們可能是"玩具" ，為以色列的飛行員發動攻擊。 Deep underground telephone land-lines have been laid to those which are visible and to those others which are beneath the surface.深層地下電話陸上線路已鋪設到那些都是看得見那些別人都是下方地面。 The Hizbollah learned a lot from the 2006 war.真主黨學到了很多東西，從2006年的戰爭。 Then its secret bunkers were air-conditioned with beds and kitchens attached.那麼，它的秘密地堡均裝有空調床和廚房的重視。 But when Israeli troops discovered a handful of them, they also found copies of their own Israeli air force reconnaissance photographs, complete with Hebrew markings.但是，當以色列軍隊發現極少數，他們還發現，拷貝自己的以色列空軍的偵察照片，完全與希伯來語標記。

The Hizbollah had obviously bribed or blackmailed Israeli border guards for the pictures – from which they could tell at once which bunkers the Israelis had identified and which remained unknown to them.真主黨已明顯被收買或勒索，以色列的邊界警衛，為照片-從它們可以告訴一次，其中掩體，以色列人已經查明並仍未知給他們。

Which is how, in 2006, its guerrillas sat safely through days of air bombardment in the latter, while allowing the Israelis to blitz the “known” fortresses to their hearts’ content.這是怎樣，在2006年，其游擊隊坐在安然度過幾天的空襲，在後者，同時也允許以色列人突擊"已知"的城池，以他們的心'的內容。 Who knows if the Hizbollah has not since collected a new batch of photographs for the coming months?誰知道，如果真主黨不自收集了一批新的照片，為今後幾個月？

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