By Robert Fisk in Teir Dibba, south Lebanon由罗伯特菲斯克在teir dibba ，黎巴嫩南部
Tuesday, 8 April 2008 周二， 2008年4月8日

The Shia “martyrs” of this hill village are normally killed in the dangerous, stony landscape of southern Lebanon, in Israeli air raids or invasions or attacks from the sea.什叶派的"烈士"这个山村的通常是死亡的危险，石质景观黎巴嫩南部地区，在以色列的空袭或入侵或攻击，从海中。 The Hizbollah duly honours them.真主党正式授勋。 But the body of the latest Shia fighter to be buried here – from the local Hashem family – was flown back to Lebanon last month from Iran.但该机构的最新什叶派战士被埋葬在这里-从地方神家族-是飞回黎巴嫩上个月从伊朗。

He was hailed as a martyr in the village Husseiniya mosque but the Hizbollah would say no more.他被称为烈士，在村里husseiniya清真寺，但真主党会说，没有更多。 For when a Lebanese is killed in live firing exercises in the Islamic Republic, his death brings almost as many questions as mourners.为当一名黎巴嫩人死亡，在实弹演习中，伊斯兰共和国，他的去世带来了几乎同样多的问题，作为悼念。 Yet it is an open secret south of the Litani river that thousands of young men have been leaving their villages for military training in Iran.但它是一个公开的秘密南部利塔尼河说，数千名年轻男子已经离开自己的村庄，为军事训练在伊朗。 Up to 300 men are taken to Beirut en route to Tehran each month and the operation has been running since November of 2006; in all, as many as 4,500 Hizbollah members have been sent for three-month sessions of live-fire ammunition and rocket exercises to create a nucleus of Iranian-trained guerrillas for the “next” Israeli-Hizbollah war.多达300名官兵采取贝鲁特飞往德黑兰每个月和运作已经运行了自2006年11月，在所有的，有多达4500名真主党成员已派出3个月的会议实弹射击弹药和火箭演习创造一个核伊朗训练有素的游击队员为"下一步"以色列和真主党的战争。

Whether this frightening conflict takes place will depend on President Bush’s behaviour.无论这个可怕的冲突发生，将取决于布什总统的行为。 If America – or its proxy, Israel – bombs Iran, the response is likely to be swift and will come from the deep underground bunkers that the Hizbollah has been building in the fields and beside the roadways east and south of Jezzine.如果美国-或其代理人，以色列-炸弹，伊朗的反应很可能会被迅速将来自深层地下掩体，说真主党已在建设领域和旁边巷道的东部和南部的杰津。

For months, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbollah leader, has been warning Israel that his organisation has a “surprise” new weapon in its armoury and there are few in Lebanon who do not suspect that this is a new Iranian-developed ground-to-air missile – rockets which may at last challenge Israel’s air supremacy over Lebanon.几个月来，赛义德哈桑纳斯鲁拉，真主党领导人已经警告以色列说，他的组织已经"突击"的新武器，在其军火库，并有少数在黎巴嫩，他们不怀疑这是一个新的伊朗研制的地面至空空导弹-火箭可能会在最后的挑战，以色列的空中优势战胜黎巴嫩。 For more than 30 years, Israel’s fighter-bombers have had the skies to themselves, losing only two aircraft – one to a primitive Palestinian SAM-7 shoulder-fired missile, the other to Syrian anti-aircraft guns – during and after its 1982 invasion. 30多年前，以色列的战斗轰炸机有天空，以自己的，亏损只有两班航机-一到原始巴勒斯坦萨姆- 7肩上发射的导弹外，其他叙利亚高射炮-期间和之后，其1982年入侵。

After its 1980-88 war with Iraq, Iran introduced a new generation of weapons, one of which – a development of a Chinese sea-to-sea missile – almost sank an Israeli corvette in the last Hizbollah-Israeli war in 2006.之后，其1980年至1988年两伊战争，伊朗推出了新一代的武器，其中之一是-一个发展中海，以海飞弹-几乎沉没，一名以色列护卫舰，在过去，真主党和以色列战争，在2 0 06年推出。

Can the Hizbollah shoot Israeli jets out of the sky in the event of another conflict?可以真主党射击以色列飞机失控天空，在发生另一场冲突？ It is a question much discussed within the 13,000-strong United Nations force in southern Lebanon – essentially a Nato-led army, which contains French, Spanish and Italian troops as well as Chinese, Indian and sundry other contingents – which would find itself sandwiched between the two antagonists.这是一个问题很多的讨论， 13000 -强大的联合国部队在黎巴嫩南部的-基本上是一个由北约领导的军队，其中载有法语，西班牙语和意大利语部队以及中国，印度和其他杂项其他特遣队-这将发现自己夹两个拮抗剂。

There are no armed Hizbollah fighters in their area of operations – Nasrallah respects the UN resolution which placed the peacekeepers between the Israeli border and the Litani in 2006 – but the UN mission, along with its soldiers, will be gravely endangered in the event of another war.有没有武装真主党战士在自己的业务地区-纳斯鲁拉尊重联合国的决议，把维和与以色列的边界和利塔尼在2 006年-但联合国特派团的支持，再加上它的士兵，将严重威胁了这项活动的另一个战争。

If its aircraft could no longer bomb at will over Lebanon without fear of being destroyed, would Israel stage another costly land invasion – highly unlikely after the bloodying its troops took in 2006 – or use its own ground-to-ground missiles on Lebanon?如果它的飞机再也无法在炸弹将超过黎巴嫩不必担心被破坏，将以色列的另一个阶段昂贵的土地入侵-极不可能后， b loodying其总兵力在2 006年-或使用自己的地面到地面导弹对黎巴嫩？ For if the latter option were chosen, it would bring a whole new dimension to Lebanon’s repeated wars.如果后一种选择，选择，它会带来一个全新的层面黎巴嫩的多次战争。 Long-range missiles have proved hopelessly inaccurate in Middle East conflicts and the Iran-Iraq war.长程飞弹已证明毫无希望地不准确，在中东冲突和伊朗-伊拉克战争。 But whatever political sins they still commit, the Lebanese – despite their current crisis – appear to have rejected any return to civil war.但是，不管政治的罪过，他们仍然承诺，黎巴嫩-尽管它们目前的危机-似乎已拒绝任何回报内战。 In such a war, no one could repeat the old lies about “pinpoint accuracy”.在这样一场战争，没有人可以重复旧的谎言， "精确" 。

The government of Fouad Siniora may be trapped in its own “Green Zone” in central Beirut – it even refused to attend the Arab League summit in Damascus – and parliament is suspended after 17 vain sessions to elect a president.政府辛纽拉可能是被困在自己的"绿区" ，在贝鲁特市中心的-它甚至拒绝参加阿拉伯联盟首脑会议在大马士革-和议会是暂停后， 1 7白费会，以选出一位总统。 A series of prominent Lebanese MPs and journalists have been murdered or attacked since 2005 but Syrian troops have left and the Lebanese army still manages to keep a form of order on the streets.一系列著名的黎巴嫩国会议员和记者被杀害或攻击自2005年起，但叙利亚军队已离开和黎巴嫩军队仍然能保持一种形式的，为了开上大街。 However, the Syrian intelligence presence has been maintained in Lebanon – and Syria is Iran’s only ally in the Arab world.不过，叙利亚情报机构一直维持在黎巴嫩-叙利亚是伊朗的盟友，只有在阿拉伯世界。 This does not mean that war is inevitable.这并不意味着战争是不可避免的。

So the future of Lebanon remains – as it did in 2006 – in the hands of the United States and Iran.因此，黎巴嫩的未来仍然是-它在2 006年-在政府手中，美国和伊朗。 Just as the Israelis constantly warn of war, so the Hizbollah still promises revenge for the car-bomb murder of its former intelligence officer Imad Mougnieh in Damascus in February.正如以色列人不断发出警告，战争，因此，真主党仍承诺报仇，为汽车炸弹谋杀其前情报官员伊马德mougnieh在大马士革2月。 Regularly, the Israelis warn that they will respond to attacks but that they will “choose the moment and the place and the means”.定期，以色列人都警告说，它们将回应攻击，但他们将"选择时机，地点和方式" 。

And sure enough – following the Hizbollah’s pattern of using Israel’s own words – Nasrallah said on 24 March that the Hizbollah would “choose the moment and the place and the means” to retaliate for Mougnieh’s death.果然-继真主党的模式，利用以色列自己的话来说-纳斯鲁拉说，对3月2 4日表示，真主党将"选择时机，地点和方式"报复mo ugnieh的死因。

And each month, the Hizballoh improves its new bunkers north of the Litani.每一个月的时间内， hizballoh提高了其新的掩体以北的利塔尼。 Some now sprout aerials but they may be “dummies” for Israel’s pilots to attack.现在有些萌芽天线，但他们可能是"玩具" ，为以色列的飞行员发动攻击。 Deep underground telephone land-lines have been laid to those which are visible and to those others which are beneath the surface.深层地下电话陆上线路已铺设到那些都是看得见那些别人都是下方地面。 The Hizbollah learned a lot from the 2006 war.真主党学到了很多东西，从2006年的战争。 Then its secret bunkers were air-conditioned with beds and kitchens attached.那么，它的秘密地堡均装有空调床和厨房的重视。 But when Israeli troops discovered a handful of them, they also found copies of their own Israeli air force reconnaissance photographs, complete with Hebrew markings.但是，当以色列军队发现极少数，他们还发现，拷贝自己的以色列空军的侦察照片，完全与希伯来语标记。

The Hizbollah had obviously bribed or blackmailed Israeli border guards for the pictures – from which they could tell at once which bunkers the Israelis had identified and which remained unknown to them.真主党已明显被收买或勒索，以色列的边界警卫，为照片-从它们可以告诉一次，其中掩体，以色列人已经查明并仍未知给他们。

Which is how, in 2006, its guerrillas sat safely through days of air bombardment in the latter, while allowing the Israelis to blitz the “known” fortresses to their hearts’ content.这是怎样，在2006年，其游击队坐在安然度过几天的空袭，在后者，同时也允许以色列人突击"已知"的城池，以他们的心'的内容。 Who knows if the Hizbollah has not since collected a new batch of photographs for the coming months?谁知道，如果真主党不自收集了一批新的照片，为今后几个月？

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