裝貨…
美國襲擊和拘捕集合場面為海軍陸戰隊員捕獲
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在3am在1月11日美國軍事力量在庫爾德人的資本Arbil襲擊了伊朗聯絡處并且扣留了是寂靜的囚犯的五位伊朗官員。
攻擊在交鋒指示了重大逐步升級在美國和伊朗之間。
英國在這中在伊拉克不可避免地介入當美國的唯一的重要外國盟友。 實際上美國襲擊可能有更加重大後果，如果他們瞄準的美國人抓住了伊朗官員。 Fuad Hussein, the chief of staff of the Kurdish president Massoud Barzani, told The Independent that “they were after Mohammed Jafari, the deputy chairman of Iran’s National Security Council.”
It is a measure of the difficulty America has in getting its close allies in Iraq, notably the Kurds, to join it in confronting Iran that Mr Jafari was in Arbil as part of an Iranian delegation. He had just visited Mr Barzani in his mountain-top headquarters at Salahudin and earlier he met with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani in Dokan in eastern Kurdistan.
The political links between Iran and Iraq will be difficult to sever. Most Iraqi political leaders, Arab or Kurdish, were exiles in Iran or in Syria. They are also conscious that one day the US will withdraw from Iraq but Iran will always be there.
Some businessmen in Arbil scent profitable opportunities as the UN tightens its embargo on trade with Iran, announced at the weekend by the UN. As official trade is squeezed, they foresee remunerative possibilities for smuggling goods in and out of Iran.
Economically, northern Iraq needs Iran more than Iran needs it. Iranian petrol commands a premium price because it is considered pure and Kurdistan is eager to increase its supply of electricity, of which it is permanently short, from Iran.
In terms of US domestic and international politics, an American confrontation with Iran on the nuclear issue probably makes sense. Washington can rally support against Iran in a way that it cannot do when it looks for support for its occupation of Iraq. Seeing the US bogged down in Iraq, the Iranians may have overplaying their hand in developing nuclear power.
Inside Iraq, confrontation with Iran does not make much political sense. All America’s allies in Iraq have close ties with Iran. The only anti-Iranian community in Iraq is the five million Sunni who have been fighting the US for the past four years.
The US raid on Arbil in January would have had far more serious consequences if Mr Jafari had been abducted. As it was, the seizure of five Iranian officials seems to have set the scene for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards seizing 15 British sailors and marines.
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