A new intelligence report paints a bleak picture of Iraq一個新的情報報告描繪的前景暗淡，伊拉克的
By通過 Warren P. Strobel and Leila Fadel沃倫頁史特羅貝爾和勒伊拉（ Fadel
A new assessment of Iraq by US intelligence agencies provides little evidence that the American troop “surge” has accomplished its goals and predicts that the US-backed government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will become “more precarious” in the months ahead.一項新的評估對伊拉克的美國情報機構提供了很少有證據表明，美國部隊“風”已完成其目標和預測，美國支持的政府總理nouri基地-馬利基將成為“更加危險”在未來數月。
A declassified summary of the report released Thursday said that violence remains high, warns that US alliances with former Sunni Muslim insurgents could undercut the central government and says that political compromises are “unlikely to emerge” in the next 12 months.解密的報告摘要公佈週四說，暴力依然高企，警告說，美國的聯盟與前遜尼派穆斯林武裝分子可能會削弱中央政府的和說，政治妥協是“不太可能出現”在未來12個月。
Perhaps most strikingly, US intelligence analysts concluded that factions and political players in and outside Iraq already are maneuvering in expectation of a drawdown of US troops — moves that could later heighten sectarian bloodshed.也許最驚人的，美國情報分析家的結論是，派別和政治的球員在和境外的伊拉克已經是操縱在期望削減美國駐軍的-的舉動可以稍後提高教派流血衝突。
“The national intelligence assessment confirms what we feared the most: The US has become deeply embroiled in Iraq’s civil war,” said Sen. Jay Rockefeller, DW.Va., the chairman of the Senate intelligence committee. “國家情報評估證實了什麼，我們最擔心的：美國已成為深深捲入在伊拉克的內戰，說： ”參議員傑伊洛克菲勒， dw.va. ，主席，參議院情報委員會。
A White House spokesman, Gordon Johndroe, said the report, known as a National Intelligence Estimate, showed that President Bush’s decision to send an additional 28,000 troops to Iraq is beginning to have an effect.白宮發言人戈登Johndroe ）的報告表示，眾所周知，作為一個國家情報評估顯示，布什總統的決定，派遣一個額外的28000向伊拉克派兵是已經開始產生效果。
While it said that the surge has brought “measurable, but uneven improvements in security,” the report didn’t repeat recent military assertions that civilian deaths have decreased by 50 percent.而它說，風，帶來了“可衡量的，但不均衡的改善，安全， ”該報告沒有重複最近的軍事主張，即平民的死亡減少了50 ％ 。 Instead, it said, “the level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high.”相反，它說： “水平的整體暴力事件，包括襲擊和平民傷亡，仍然偏高” 。
It also suggested that while violence is no longer increasing, any progress might be temporary.也有人認為，雖然暴力是不再增加，任何進展，可能是暫時性的。 “The steep escalation of violence has been checked for now,” the report said, noting, “Overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks.” It provided no specific statistics. “陡峭的暴力升級已檢查現在， ”該報告稱，注意到， “整體攻擊全省各級伊拉克已下跌期間，七的最後9個星期。 ”它沒有提供具體的統計數字。
The report also said that al-Qaida in Iraq “retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks,” and it warned that the current US tactic of recruiting former Sunni Muslim insurgents to defeat al-Qaida in Iraq — one of the pillars of efforts by Army Gen. David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq — could backfire.該報告還表示，在伊拉克的基地組織“保留能力進行高姿態攻擊， ”它警告說，美國目前的策略，招募前遜尼派穆斯林武裝分子打敗在伊拉克的基地組織-的一大支柱的努力由陸軍中將戴維彼得雷烏斯，美國在伊拉克的指揮官-可能會適得其反。
Nor has the surge brought about Sunni reconciliation with al-Maliki’s government, the report said.也激增帶來的遜尼派和解與基地-馬利基的政府，報告說。 Worse, it said, such “bottom-up” security initiatives could pose risks to the al-Maliki government by undermining central authority and reinvigorating armed opposition to the government in Baghdad.更糟的是，它說，這種“自下而上”的安全倡議可能構成危險的Al -馬利基政府破壞中央權威和振興反對派武裝向政府在巴格達。
US military spokesmen in Baghdad weren’t available for comment.在巴格達的美軍發言人均沒有對此發表評論。
The report’s main conclusions, known as “key judgments,” were declassified 2 { weeks before Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker are to testify to Congress on Iraq’s performance on 18 political, economic and security benchmarks.報告的主要結論，被稱為“關鍵的判斷， ”解密2 （週前，彼得雷烏斯和瑞安大使克羅克是作證，向國會對伊拉克的表現，對18個政治，經濟和安全基準。
The report didn’t address each of those points directly, but it concluded that the “broadly accepted political compromises required for sustained security, long-term political progress and economic development are unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments.”該報告沒有針對上述各點，直接，但它得出結論認為， “廣泛接受的政治妥協所需的持續安全，長期的政治進步和經濟發展是不可能出現的，除非是有根本性轉變的因素，在駕駛伊拉克政治和安全事態發展“ 。
“To date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively,” it said. “迄今為止，伊拉克政治領導人仍然無法有效管治， ”它說。
In recent days, several US lawmakers have suggested that al-Maliki should step down, and Bush on Tuesday gave the Iraqi leader a less-than-ringing endorsement.在最近幾天，一些美國國會議員曾建議，鋁-馬利基應該下台，布什對週二，給伊拉克領導人低於振鈴背書。
The intelligence estimate says that al-Maliki, while increasingly hemmed in by his opponents, is likely to remain in power — if only because other Shiite Muslim leaders realize that trying to replace him could paralyze the government.情報估計說，鋁-馬利基，而越來越多hemmed在由他的對手，很可能會繼續留在權力-如果只是因為其他的什葉派穆斯林領導人認識到，想取代他可能癱瘓政府。
“It’s difficult to see an obvious replacement that would garner the majority support you would need,” said a senior US intelligence official, one of three who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity in order to discuss the estimate frankly. “這不難看出一個明顯的更換會得到大多數人的支持，您將需要，說： ”一名美國高級情報官員，其中3誰向記者就不願透露姓名的條件，以便討論估計坦白。
An Iraqi official close to al-Maliki said the embattled Shiite prime minister has become more isolated from his Shiite and Kurdish allies.一位伊拉克官員接近基地-馬利基說，被圍困的什葉派總理已成為更加孤立從他的什葉派和庫爾德人的盟國。 Al-Maliki, who’s from the Dawa party, the smallest and least powerful in the Shiite alliance, depended on those allies to win his position.鋁-馬利基，誰的從達瓦黨，最小的和最強大的什葉派聯盟，依賴於這些盟國贏得他的立場。
Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst now with the Brookings Institution, a center-left Washington policy organization, said that with summer ending and little real progress in Iraq, Bush has to blame someone.布魯斯里德爾，前中情局分析員，現在與布魯金斯學會的，中間偏左的華盛頓的政策，組織說，隨著夏季結束，並沒有實質的進展，在伊拉克，布什歸咎於某人。
“The president promised that people will see political progress by the end of the summer, it’s here, and the only progress is the Sunnis turning on al-Qaida. “總統承諾，人們將看到政治上的進步是由夏季結束時，它的在這裡，和唯一的進步是遜尼派談到對基地組織的。 Maliki’s government is not likely to embrace these Sunnis because the Sunnis are not interested in embracing a Shiite government,” Riedel said.馬利基的政府是不太可能的懷抱，因為這些遜尼派穆斯林遜尼派不感興趣，概括性的一個什葉派政府， “里德爾說。
Briefing reporters on the report, a second senior US intelligence official said that when US troops leave Iraq, some Sunni groups “could turn on one another to encourage a greater degree of intra-sectarian conflict.”發布會上，記者就報告，第二個美國高級情報官員說，當美軍離開伊拉克，一些遜尼派團體“ ，能把對一的另一個鼓勵更大程度的內部教派衝突” 。
A similar dynamic is now being seen among Shiite militias in southern Iraq as British troops reduce their presence there.類似的動態，現正看到之間的什葉派民兵在伊拉克南部的英國部隊，減少他們的存在。
On other topics, the declassified judgments found that:對其他議題，解密的判決結果發現：
_Iraqi Security Forces, while more competent than before, haven’t improved enough to conduct major operations independent of US and allied troops. _iraqi安全部隊，而更多的主管比以前，都沒有足夠的改善，進行主要業務獨立於美國和盟軍。
_Iran “will continue to provide funding, weaponry and training to Iraqi Shia militants” despite US protests. _iran “將繼續提供資金，武器裝備和訓練伊拉克什葉派激進分子： ”儘管美國抗議。
_Syria has cracked down on Sunni extremist groups trying to infiltrate fighters into Iraq because they threaten Syria’s stability, but is providing support to other groups inside Iraq to try to increase its influence there. _syria已破獲的對遜尼派極端主義團體試圖滲透進入伊拉克的戰鬥機，因為它們威脅到敘利亞的穩定，而且是提供支持，其他團體在伊拉克境內設法增加其影響力。
See More: 看到更多的： Iraq 伊拉克Have Your Say: A new intelligence report paints a bleak picture of Iraq 你說：一個新的情報報告描繪的前景暗淡，伊拉克的
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