By由 Warren P. Strobel and Leila Fadel华伦页strobel和勒伊拉（ Fadel

A new assessment of Iraq by US intelligence agencies provides little evidence that the American troop “surge” has accomplished its goals and predicts that the US-backed government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will become “more precarious” in the months ahead.新的评价伊拉克由美国情报机构提供了几乎没有证据表明美国部队"激增"已经完成了它的目标，并预测说，美国支持的总理的政府里基地马利基将成为"更加危险" ，在未来数个月。

A declassified summary of the report released Thursday said that violence remains high, warns that US alliances with former Sunni Muslim insurgents could undercut the central government and says that political compromises are “unlikely to emerge” in the next 12 months.一份解密的报告摘要公布周四表示，暴力事件仍居高不下，警告说，美国的联盟与前逊尼派穆斯林武装分子可能削弱中央政府和说，政治妥协是"不大可能出现， "在今后12个月。

Perhaps most strikingly, US intelligence analysts concluded that factions and political players in and outside Iraq already are maneuvering in expectation of a drawdown of US troops — moves that could later heighten sectarian bloodshed.也许最引人注目的是，美国情报分析家的结论是，派别和政治角色，在伊拉克国内外已整装待发，在期望动用美国军队-的动作，稍后可以提高教派之间的流血事件。

“The national intelligence assessment confirms what we feared the most: The US has become deeply embroiled in Iraq’s civil war,” said Sen. Jay Rockefeller, DW.Va., the chairman of the Senate intelligence committee. "国家情报评估确认，我们恐怕最：美国已深深卷入伊拉克的内战中说： "参议员杰伊洛克菲勒dw.va. ，担任参议院情报委员会。

A White House spokesman, Gordon Johndroe, said the report, known as a National Intelligence Estimate, showed that President Bush’s decision to send an additional 28,000 troops to Iraq is beginning to have an effect.白宫发言人戈登Johndroe ）说，该报告被称为国家情报评估显示，布什总统的决定，派遣一个额外的28000人的部队到伊拉克已经开始产生效果。

While it said that the surge has brought “measurable, but uneven improvements in security,” the report didn’t repeat recent military assertions that civilian deaths have decreased by 50 percent.同时，它说，激增带来的"可衡量的，但不均衡的改善，安全， "该报告没有重复最近的军事断言说，平民死亡人数已减少了50 ％ 。 Instead, it said, “the level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high.”相反，它说： "水平的总体暴力，其中包括袭击和平民伤亡，仍然偏高" 。

It also suggested that while violence is no longer increasing, any progress might be temporary.也有人认为，虽然暴力是不再增加，有任何进展可能是暂时性的。 “The steep escalation of violence has been checked for now,” the report said, noting, “Overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks.” It provided no specific statistics. "陡峭的暴力升级已得到有效遏制，目前， "该报告同时指出， "整体而言攻击全省各级伊拉克已下跌过程中的7个在过去9个星期" ，它没有提供具体数字。

The report also said that al-Qaida in Iraq “retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks,” and it warned that the current US tactic of recruiting former Sunni Muslim insurgents to defeat al-Qaida in Iraq — one of the pillars of efforts by Army Gen. David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq — could backfire.该报告还指出，基地组织在伊拉克"仍保留有能力进行高姿态攻击" ，它警告说，美国目前的策略，招募前逊尼派穆斯林反叛者打败基地组织在伊拉克-的一大支柱，努力由陆军上将戴维彼得雷乌斯，美军指挥官在伊拉克-可能会适得其反。

Nor has the surge brought about Sunni reconciliation with al-Maliki’s government, the report said.也有激增带来的逊尼派和解与基地马利基的政府，报告说。 Worse, it said, such “bottom-up” security initiatives could pose risks to the al-Maliki government by undermining central authority and reinvigorating armed opposition to the government in Baghdad.更糟的是，它说，这种"由下而上"的安全举措可能会危及该基地马利基政府破坏中央权威和振兴武装反对巴格达政府的。

US military spokesmen in Baghdad weren’t available for comment.在巴格达的美军发言人没有对此发表评论。

The report’s main conclusions, known as “key judgments,” were declassified 2 { weeks before Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker are to testify to Congress on Iraq’s performance on 18 political, economic and security benchmarks.该报告的主要结论，被称为"关键的判断" ，被解密2 （星期前彼得雷乌斯大使瑞安克罗克是到国会作证对伊拉克的表现，对18个政治，经济和安全基准。

The report didn’t address each of those points directly, but it concluded that the “broadly accepted political compromises required for sustained security, long-term political progress and economic development are unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments.”该报告没有针对每项这些论点直接，但它得出结论认为， "广泛接受的政治妥协，需要持续的安全，长期的政治进步和经济发展，是不太可能出现的，除非有一个根本性的转变，在其推动因素伊拉克政治和安全局势的发展" 。

“To date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively,” it said. "到今天为止，伊拉克政治领导人仍无法有效统治" ，它说。

In recent days, several US lawmakers have suggested that al-Maliki should step down, and Bush on Tuesday gave the Iraqi leader a less-than-ringing endorsement.最近几天，几位美国国会议员曾建议基地马利基应该下台，布什上周二给伊拉克领导人低于振铃背书。

The intelligence estimate says that al-Maliki, while increasingly hemmed in by his opponents, is likely to remain in power — if only because other Shiite Muslim leaders realize that trying to replace him could paralyze the government.该情报评估说，基地马利基，而越来越多hemmed在他的对手，很可能会继续留在权力-如果只是因为其他的什叶派穆斯林领导人认识到，试图取代他可能瘫痪政府。

“It’s difficult to see an obvious replacement that would garner the majority support you would need,” said a senior US intelligence official, one of three who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity in order to discuss the estimate frankly. "这不难看出一个明显的替换将得到大多数议员的支持，你将需要" ，说，一位美国高级情报官员，其中3人向记者介绍情况的匿名性，以讨论估计坦白。

An Iraqi official close to al-Maliki said the embattled Shiite prime minister has become more isolated from his Shiite and Kurdish allies.一名伊拉克官员接近基地马利基说，在危机四伏的什叶派总理已经变得更加孤立，从他的什叶派和库尔德盟友。 Al-Maliki, who’s from the Dawa party, the smallest and least powerful in the Shiite alliance, depended on those allies to win his position.基地马利基，谁的，由达瓦党，最小和最强大的什叶派联盟，依靠这些盟国赢得他的立场。

Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst now with the Brookings Institution, a center-left Washington policy organization, said that with summer ending and little real progress in Iraq, Bush has to blame someone.布鲁斯里德尔，一位前中情局分析员，现在布鲁金斯研究所，一个中间偏左的华盛顿政策组织说，随着夏季结束，并没有出现真正的进展，在伊拉克方面，布什指责某人。

“The president promised that people will see political progress by the end of the summer, it’s here, and the only progress is the Sunnis turning on al-Qaida. "国家主席承诺，人们看到政治上的进步，到去年底，今年夏天，它的这里，而且是唯一的进展是逊尼派谈到基地组织。 Maliki’s government is not likely to embrace these Sunnis because the Sunnis are not interested in embracing a Shiite government,” Riedel said.马利基的政府可能不会为迎接这些逊尼派，因为逊尼派不感兴趣拥抱一个什叶派政府， "里德尔说。

Briefing reporters on the report, a second senior US intelligence official said that when US troops leave Iraq, some Sunni groups “could turn on one another to encourage a greater degree of intra-sectarian conflict.”发布会上，记者就报告，第二个美国高级情报官员说，当美军撤离伊拉克，一些逊尼派团体" ，可以打开并互相鼓励更大程度的内部教派冲突" 。

A similar dynamic is now being seen among Shiite militias in southern Iraq as British troops reduce their presence there.类似的增长态势现在也被视为其中的什叶派民兵组织在伊拉克南部的英国部队减轻他们的存在。

On other topics, the declassified judgments found that:对其他议题，解密判决认定：

_Iraqi Security Forces, while more competent than before, haven’t improved enough to conduct major operations independent of US and allied troops. _iraqi安全部队，同时有更多的主管比以前，有没有改善，足以进行大手术独立于美国和盟国的部队。

_Iran “will continue to provide funding, weaponry and training to Iraqi Shia militants” despite US protests. _iran " ，将继续提供资金，武器和训练，以伊拉克什叶派激进分子： "尽管美国抗议。

_Syria has cracked down on Sunni extremist groups trying to infiltrate fighters into Iraq because they threaten Syria’s stability, but is providing support to other groups inside Iraq to try to increase its influence there. _syria已狠狠打击逊尼派极端团体试图渗透战士进入伊拉克，因为他们威胁到叙利亚的稳定，而且正在提供支持，与其他群体在伊拉克境内设法增加其影响力。

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