Our original estimate of the cost of the Iraq war was too conservative: in reality the cost for the US will be much higher. 我们原先估计的生产成本，对伊拉克战争过于保守：在现实中的成本，美国将高得多。

By Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes由约瑟夫施蒂格利茨和琳达比尔姆斯
The Guardian卫

President Bush has tried to give the impression that the $3 trillion dollar estimate of the total cost of the war that we provide in our new book may be exaggerated.美国总统布什曾试图给人一种印象，以为3000000000000美元美元的估计总成本的那场战争，我们所提供的，在我们新的书可能被夸大。

We believe that it is in fact conservative.我们认为，它实际上是在保守的。 Even the president would have to admit that the $50 to $60 billion estimate given by the administration before the war was wildly off the mark; there is little reason to have confidence in their arithmetic.连总统将不得不承认， 50元，以600亿美元的预算，由政府在战前是不着边际商标的，而是有其理由很少有信心，在他们的算术。 They admit to a cost so far of $600 billion.他们承认，以成本至今的6000亿美元。

Our numbers differ from theirs for three reasons: first, we are estimating the total cost of the war, under alternative conservative scenarios, derived from the defence department and congressional budget office.我们的号码他们不同的原因有三：首先，我们估计总成本的战争，根据替代保守的方案，来自国防部和国会预算办公室。 We are not looking at McCain’s 100-year scenario - we assume that we are there, in diminished strength, only through to 2017.我们不是看麦凯恩的100年的情景-我们假设，我们的责任是，在削弱实力，只有通过到2 017年。 But neither are we looking at a scenario that sees our troops pulled out within six months.但是，我们也看一个情景处处是我们的部队离开后6个月内。 With operational spending going on at $12 billion a month, and with every year costing more than the last, it is easy to come to a total operational cost that is double the $600 billon already spent.与业务支出持续在120亿美元，一个月后，与每年的费用多于过去，很容易得出一个总的运作成本，即增加一倍，为600元亿，已经用了。

Second, we include war expenditures hidden elsewhere in the budget, and budgetary expenditures that we would have to incur in the future even if we left tomorrow.第二，我们包括战争支出隐藏在其他地方的预算，和预算支出的，我们将要付出，在未来即使我们离开的明天。 Most important of these are future costs of caring for the 40% of returning veterans that are likely to suffer from disabilities (in excess of $600 billion; second world war veterans’ costs didn’t peak until 1993), and restoring the military to its prewar strength.最重要的是，这些都是未来成本的爱心，为40 ％的回老兵有可能患上残疾人（超过6000亿美元;第二次世界大战的退伍军人的费用并没有达到顶峰，直到1993年） ，并恢复军事其战前的实力。 If you include interest, and interest on the interest - with all of the war debt financed - the budgetary costs quickly mount.如果你包括利息和利息，对利息-所有的战争债务融资-预算费用迅速上升。

Finally, our $3 trillion dollars estimate also includes costs to the economy that go beyond the budget, for instance the cost of caring for the huge number of returning disabled veterans that go beyond the costs borne by the federal government - in one out of five families with a serious disability, someone has to give up a job.最后，我们的3000000000000美元美元估算，还包括成本，以经济超出预算，例如成本的关怀，为数量庞大的回流伤残军人表示，超出费用由联邦政府-在五个人中就有一个家庭一个严重残疾，有人放弃了一份工作。 The macro-economic costs are even larger.宏观的经济代价更大。 Almost every expert we have talked to agrees that the war has had something to do with the rise in the price of oil; it was not just an accident that oil prices began to soar at the same time as the war began.几乎每一个专家，我们已经谈过同意说，这场战争已经有所为与上升的石油价格，它不只是一个意外，石油价格开始飙升，在同一时间，随着战争的开始。

We have been criticised, but for being excessively conservative, for including only $5 to $10 of the $75 to $85 increase in the price of oil since then.我们被批评，但被过分保守，其中只有5元至10元的75元至85元增加，在原油价格自那时以来。 Money spent on the war - on a Nepalese contractor working in Iraq - does not stimulate the economy as much as money spent on hospitals or research or schools at home.花的钱，对战争-对一名尼泊尔籍承包商在伊拉克工作-没有刺激经济多达花的钱，对医院或研究或学校在家中。 These contractionary effects were temporarily covered up, hidden, by the flood of liquidity and lax regulations that led to a housing bubble and a consumption boom - with household savings plummeting to zero.这些紧缩的影响，暂时掩盖了，隐蔽的，由泛滥的流动性和宽松的规定，导致了房地产泡沫和消费的繁荣-与家庭储蓄直线下降到零。 But this simply postponed paying these costs - and increased them.不过，这只是推迟了支付这些费用-增加了他们。

With the exception of a few lonely surviving supply-siders, most economists believe that deficits matter, and the huge deficits to finance the war will have their toll in the long run.与除少数幸存的寂寞供应siders ，大多数经济学家认为，赤字问题，以及巨额经常项目赤字，以资助战争都会有他们的收费在长远之计。 Deficits matter in both the short run and the long.赤字问题，在这两个短期而言性和长期性。 They help crowd out private investment that would have stimulated the economy far more than the war expenditures; and the reduced investments reduce long-run productivity.他们帮助排挤私人投资，这将刺激了经济的远远多于战争的支出和减少投资，减少长期运行效率。 With 40% of the funds borrowed from abroad, Americans will be sending interest payments abroad - lowering living standards at home.与40 ％的资金是借用国外，美国人将派遣利息支付在国外-降低生活水平，在家里。 Finally, even Fed Chair Bernanke (formerly the president’s economic adviser) admits that the deficits have reduced the room to manoeuvre - the ability of the government to respond to the looming economic crisis.最后，即使美联储主席伯南克（前身为总统的经济顾问） ，承认该赤字已减少了活动余地-政府是否有能力，以应对迫在眉睫的经济危机。

Spending so much on the war has economic consequences, even if you don’t think there is any connection between the war and the economy’s current woes.花了这么多关于战争的经济后果，即使你不认为有任何关系的结束和经济的目前的困境。

In adding up the quantifiable costs of the war, it is hard not to come up with a number in excess of $3 trillion.在添加了可以量化的战争费用，这是很难不来，拿出了一批超过3万亿美元。 In putting a $3 trillion price tag on the war, we believe we have been excessively conservative - a $4 or $5 trillion tag would be more reasonable.在把3000000000000美元价格标签上的战争，我们相信我们已经过分保守-一个4元或5 000000000000美元标签将被更合理。 And remember - this is just the cost for America.记住-这只是成本为美国。

Joseph E. Stiglitz is university professor at Columbia University and was the recipient of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics.斯蒂格利茨是大学教授，在哥伦比亚大学，并领取了2001年诺贝尔经济学奖。 Linda Bilmes teaches at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.琳达比尔姆斯任教于美国哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院的。 They are the co-authors of the recently published book The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Costs of the Iraq Conflict.他们是共同作者最近出版的书中30000.0亿美元的战争：真正成本的伊拉克冲突。

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