British lawmakers say ‘Washington and allies’ should not use force on Iran cautioning it could ‘provoke an extremely violent backlash’. 英国国会议员说，华盛顿和盟国不应使用武力对伊朗发出警告时，它可以'挑起极端暴力反弹' 。

“Any military strike against Iran would have ‘grave repercussions’ for the Middle East,” The House of Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee said in a Sunday report. "任何军事打击，伊朗将有'严重后果' ，为中东" ，英国下议院外交事务专责委员会说，在一个周日的报告。

In its ‘Global Security: Iran’ report, the select committee also warned that the use of force on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be “unlikely to succeed”.在其'全球安全：伊朗报告中，专责委员会还警告说，使用武力，对伊朗的核设施将是"不可能成功" 。

The report added that ‘given Iran’s ‘lynchpin’ role in energy security’, launching military strikes against the country ‘would also have a highly detrimental economic impact across the globe’.报告补充说， '鉴于伊朗的'规范化'的作用，在能源安全' ，发动军事打击该国'也有极为不利的经济影响，全球各地的' 。

Washington and allies accuse Iran of conducting a covert weapons program and have done everything in their power to pressure Tehran into halting its nuclear program.华盛顿和盟国指责伊朗进行一项秘密核武器计划，并已为此做一切力量压伊朗停止其核计划。

US President George W. Bush has kept the military option on the table, advocating that the ‘consequences of a nuclear-armed Iran are such that military strikes are justified, whether a smoking gun is found or not’.美国总统布什至今仍保持着军事选择摆在桌面上，主张'的后果伊朗获得核武器，是这样的军事打击是正当，是否吸烟枪被发现或不' 。

The committee, however, urged British echelons to persuade the White House into ‘directly engaging’ with Iran on the nuclear issue, ‘as the absence of such engagement has deprived the international community of a significant diplomatic tool’.不过，委员会敦促英国梯队，以说服白宫变成'直接从事'与伊朗在核问题上， '由于缺乏这种接触已失去了国际社会的一个重要的外交工具' 。

“We recommend that the government urges Washington to consider offering a credible security guarantee to Iran if the Iranian government, in turn, will offer an equally credible and verifiable guarantee that it will not enter into a nuclear weapons program,” the committee concluded. "我们建议政府敦促华盛顿将考虑给予可靠的安全保证，伊朗，如果伊朗政府，这样反过来也将提供同样可信的和可核查的保证，它不会走入了核武器计划" ，该委员会的结论。

Iran maintains that as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty it is entitled to a uranium enrichment program in order to produce fuel for the country’s under-construction nuclear power plants.伊朗坚持认为，作为一个签约国不扩散核武器条约，它的标题是一个浓缩铀计划，以生产燃料，为国家的下建造核电厂。

MD/HGH海事处/生长激素

The World Bank is reportedly using US monetary contributions to help Iran build up and develop its various industries and gas sector. 世界银行是据报使用美国货币捐款，以帮助伊朗建设和发展其各行业及燃气业。

The World Bank’s Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) has issued $122.2 million in guarantee coverage for three foreign companies which have in turn invested a total of $42.8 million in Iran’s Mehr Petrochemical Company, Fox News reported.世界银行的多边投资担保机构（担保机构）已发出122200000美元在保证覆盖率为三家外资公司，其中有反过来，总投资为4280万美元，伊朗的Mehr石化公司，福克斯新闻报道。

The three companies are Cementhai Chemicals Company and National Petrochemical Public Company Ltd., both from Thailand, and Itocho Corporation, from Japan, with the latter providing the Iranian company with an additional $96 million shareholder loan, which is also underwritten by MIGA.这三家公司都是Cementhai化学公司和国家石化公司公共有限责任公司，不论是来自泰国，并itocho公司，从日本，而后者是提供伊朗公司增设一个96000000美元股东贷款，也就是由多边投资担保机构。

MIGA uses contributions to provide financial guarantees to secure foreign investments in developing countries.多边投资担保机构的用途捐款，以提供财政担保，以确保外国投资在发展中国家。 It is the first time, however, that the Agency has provided such coverage for foreign investments in Iran.这是第一次，不过，该机构已提供这种保险为外商投资在伊朗。

According to Fox News, The US has provided the World Bank with nearly $24 million since 2000.据福克斯新闻报道说，美国已经向世界银行近2400万美元，自2000年以来。

These projects have helped Iran ‘diversify its exports away from oil’ and ‘contribute to government revenues’, Fox News quoted MIGA as saying.这些项目帮助伊朗发展多元化出口远离石油'和'有助于增加政府收入' ，福克斯新闻援引多边投资担保机构的话说。

AKM/AA支AKM /机管局

A Turkish official has refused a US request to scrutinize and then suspend the activities of the Turkey-based Iran’s Bank Mellat. 一名土耳其官员拒绝了美国的要求进行审议，然后暂停活动的土耳其-基于伊朗的银行mellat 。

“What binds Turkey are the resolutions of the UN and not US presidential decrees or Congressional decisions,” a Turkish diplomat told the Turkish Daily News . "什么绑定土耳其是该决议的联合国而不是美国总统法令或国会的决定， "一名土耳其外交官说， 土耳其每日新闻 。

US officials have told bankers around the world that Iran is funding terrorists and seeking nuclear technology.美国官员已告诉银行家世界各地，伊朗是恐怖主义分子的资金和寻求核技术。 Banks such as UBS AG and Deutsche Bank AG have responded by ending - or severely reducing - their business with Iran.银行如瑞银和德意志银行已作出回应，截至-或严重降低-其业务与伊朗。

However, in Ankara US requests have not been responded to in a similar way, according to officials.然而，在安卡拉的美国的要求没有得到回应，在一个类似的方法，根据官员。

Stating that foreign banks operate according to the regulations set by the current Banking Law and are inspected periodically, the official underlined that the conditions of suspending one bank’s operations are clear.声明说，外资银行经营按规定设置由现行的银行法，并定期检查时，这位官员强调说，该条件的，暂停一个银行的业务是非常清楚的。

“Obviously we cannot move upon a third party’s requests,” he said. "很显然，我们不能提出后，第三党的要求， "他说。

Although some banks in Europe and Japan have bowed to US pressure, a host of analysts and diplomats believe that the move has proved futile.虽然一些银行在欧洲和日本已屈服于美国的压力，许多分析家和外交官认为，这一举措已证明是徒劳的。

They opine that the Bush administration’s controversial policy of slapping sanctions on Iranian banks is facing a critical challenge, as financial institutions in Russia, China, and much of the Middle East have declined to cut ties with Iranian banks.他们认为，布什政府的具争议性的政策，掌掴制裁对伊朗的银行正面临一个关键挑战，因为金融机构在俄罗斯，中国以及许多中东都拒绝脱钩与伊朗银行。

AO/JG/PA敖/ jg /坝

In its bid to halt Iran’s nuclear program, the US has called on Turkey to be ‘vigilant’ over financial operations with Iranian banks. 在其企图阻止伊朗的核计划，美国已要求土耳其加以警惕过度的金融业务与伊朗银行。

The US Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Stuart A. Levey called on Ankara to be ‘vigilant’ over financial operations with state-run Iranian banks, AP said.美国负责反恐和金融情报斯图尔特甲勒维呼吁安卡拉加以警惕过度的金融业务，与国家办的伊朗银行，美联社说。

Levey said Ankara should scrutinize activities of Turkish-based branches of Mellat Bank since Washington arbitrarily blacklisted Banks - Melli, Mellat and Saderat to coerce Iran to suspend its nuclear program, which Tehran asserts is for domestic purposes only.勒维说，安卡拉要审议的活动土耳其语基于分行mellat银行自华盛顿任意黑名单银行-m elli， m ellat和s aderat迫使伊朗中止其核计划，对此伊朗坚称，是为国内，仅供参考。

“Iran uses its banks for its missile programs in particular,” he claimed. "伊朗利用其银行为它的导弹计划，尤其是"他宣称。

“It is essential to share information, to discuss risks …, and vigilance that is required to ensure that Turkey’s financial institutions are not abused by Iranian financial institutions and state-owned banks,” the official continued. "关键是要分享信息，讨论风险… … ，并警惕的是，必须确保土耳其的金融机构不被伊朗金融机构和国有独资商业银行， "这位官员继续进行。

The US imposed sanctions against Iranian banks in October to force countries world over to stop doing business with Tehran.美国施加的制裁对伊朗银行在10月，迫使世界各国超过停止经商与德黑兰。

Although some banks in Europe and Japan bowed to US pressure, a host of analysts and diplomats believe that the move has proved futile.虽然一些银行在欧洲和日本已屈服于美国的压力，许多分析家和外交官认为，这一举措已证明是徒劳的。

They opine that the Bush administration’s controversial policy of slapping sanctions on Iranian banks is facing a critical challenge, as financial institutions in Russia, China, and much of the Middle East have declined to cut ties with Iranian banks.他们认为，布什政府的具争议性的政策，掌掴制裁对伊朗的银行正面临一个关键挑战，因为金融机构在俄罗斯，中国以及许多中东都拒绝脱钩与伊朗银行。

MK/FH/RA旺角/跳频/放射摄影术

Israel has successfully launched a spy satellite which will be used to gather intelligence on Iran’s activities, a new report says. 以色列已经成功发射间谍卫星将主要用于收集情报，对伊朗的活动中，一份新的报告说。

The TECSAR satellite is particularly important for Israel since it can be used to ‘keep tabs on Iran’s nuclear program’, the report said citing unnamed Israeli officials.该tecsar卫星尤为重要以色列，因为它可以用来'掌握对伊朗的核计划' ，该报告说，引述不具名的以色列官员。

The officials revealed that the TECSAR satellite operates with an enhanced footage technology, allowing it to transmit images regardless of daytime and weather conditions.该官员透露说， tecsar卫星运作与强化的画面技术，让IT系统传输图象不分白天和气象条件。

TESCAR is considered the Zionist regime’s most advanced satellite in orbit to date. tescar被认为是犹太复国主义政权的最先进的卫星在轨道上时宜。

Israel has been backing the US efforts to isolate Iran and persuade the international community to intensify sanctions against the Islamic Republic over its nuclear standoff with the West.以色列一直支持美国的努力，以孤立伊朗，并说服国际社会加紧制裁，对伊朗伊斯兰共和国的核与西方。

Despite a report by US spy agencies last fall which conceded that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, Washington and Tel Aviv accuse Tehran of pursuing a nuclear arms program.尽管一份报告，由美国间谍机构在去年秋天即承认伊朗不发展核武器，华盛顿和特拉维夫指责德黑兰谋求核武计划。

Iran says its nuclear activities are within the framework of the regulations of the International Atomic Energy Agency.伊朗表示其核活动是联委会框架下成立法规的国际原子能总署。

MD/HGH/RE海事处/生长激素/重

A senior advisor to Rudy Giuliani says the next US president must discharge President Bush’s ‘responsibility’ of waging war on Iran. 资深顾问鲁迪朱利安尼说，下一任美国总统必须履行的，布什总统的'责任'的开战伊朗。

Writing for the February edition of Commentary , Norman Podhoretz said if the next US president doesn’t have the ‘courage’ to attack Iran, the outcome will be catastrophic for Washington.写作为日出版的评论中 ，诺曼podhoretz表示，如果下一任美国总统并不拥有'勇气' ，以攻击伊朗时，其结果将是灾难性的华盛顿。

“We had all better pray that there will be enough time for the next president to discharge the responsibility that Bush will have been forced to pass on,” Podhoretz added. "我们都祈祷更好地将有足够的时间为下任总统，履行职责，布什将不得不通过对" podhoretz补充。

“If not - God help us all - the stage will have been set for the outbreak of a nuclear war that will become as inescapable then as it is avoidable now,” continued the 78-year-old politician. "如果不是-上帝帮助我们所有人-第一阶段将已经确定了爆发核战争，将成为不可回避的，然后，因为它是可以避免的，现在"，继续在该7 8岁的政客。

Podhoretz, who is the foreign policy adviser to Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani, stated last year that President George W. Bush would attack Iran under the pretense of frustrating Tehran’s ‘nuclear ambitions’. podhoretz ，谁是外交政策顾问，以共和党总统候选人鲁迪朱利安尼，去年，布什总统将攻击伊朗的幌子下，挫败德黑兰的核野心' 。

This is while the neocon Czar admitted the December 3 US National Intelligence Estimate, which conceded that Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program, made it ‘politically impossible’ for the Bush administration to launch a military strike on Iran.这就是虽然新保守主义沙皇承认， 12月3日，美国国家情报评估报告，其中承认，伊朗没有核武器计划，使政治上是不可能的' ，为布什政府发动军事攻击伊朗。

MD/AA海事处/机管局

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran denounced on Monday as “words without value” President George W. Bush’s remarks that the Islamic state was threatening security around the world by backing militants.德黑兰（路透社） -伊朗谴责周一为"字没有任何价值"的布什总统的言论表示，伊斯兰国家安全构成威胁世界各地支持好战分子。

Speaking in Abu Dhabi on Sunday, Bush said Iran was the world’s top sponsor of terrorism and accused it of undermining peace by supporting the Hezbollah guerrilla group in Lebanon, Palestinian Islamist group Hamas and Shi’ite militants in Iraq.谈到在阿布扎比上周日，布什说，伊朗是世界上最大的恐怖主义赞助，并指责这是破坏和平，支持黎巴嫩真主党游击队在黎巴嫩，巴勒斯坦伊斯兰组织哈马斯和什叶派武装人员在伊拉克。

“Bush should understand that the hatred towards his policies exists … it has real and logical roots,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini was quoted as saying by state radio. "布什应该认识到，仇恨，对他的政策存在… …它具有真正的和符合逻辑的根源， "伊朗外交部发言人穆罕默德阿里侯赛尼引述他的话说：由国家广播电台。

“Bush’s remarks display his desperation and disappointment because of his failures in the region … He is trying to divert attention from his failed policies,” he said, adding Bush’s comments were “repeated words without value”. "布什总统的话，显示他的绝望和失望，因为他的失误在该地区…他正试图转移人们的注意力从他的政策失败， "他补充说，布什的评论"重复的话没有任何价值" 。

Iran blames sectarian violence in Iraq on the US-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein in 2003 and has repeatedly called on the United States to withdraw its forces.伊朗指责教派之间的暴力在伊拉克的以美国为首的入侵推翻萨达姆，在2003年，并一再要求美国撤出其部队。

Tehran and Washington are at odds over Iran’s nuclear work, which the West fears is a cover to build nuclear weapons, and Washington is pushing for a third set of sanctions on Iran for refusing to halt enrichment work, as demand by the United Nations.德黑兰和华盛顿都在赔率对伊朗的核工作，而西方惧怕的，是一个幌子制造核武器，并与华盛顿州也正积极推动第三组对伊朗的制裁，拒绝停止浓缩铀工作，因为需求是由联合国。

Tehran says it wants nuclear technology for civilian purposes.德黑兰说，它希望将核技术用于民用目的。

(Writing by Parisa Hafezi, Editing by Dominic Evans) （写作由parisa hafezi ，编辑，由星埃文斯）

US president seeks to persuade oil-rich ally into backing Washington against Iran. 美国总统旨在说服石油蕴藏丰富的盟友，成为支持华盛顿对伊朗的。

The US administration is expected to formally tell Congress of a planned $20bn arms deal with Saudi Arabia, after George Bush, the US president, arrived in the Arab state as he nears the end of his Middle East tour.美国政府预计，正式告诉国会的计划， 200美元的军火交易与沙特后，老布希任内，美国总统布什抵达了阿拉伯国家的，因为他即将结束其中东之行。

The official announcement, expected on Monday, will start a 30-day review period during which Congress could try to block the deal.在正式对外宣布，预计于周一，将开始为期30天的审查期，期间大会可设法阻止这项交易。

The deal, which includes satellite-guided weaponry and high-tech munitions, has alarmed Israel and some US Congressmen since it was unveiled last July, especially as Saudi Arabia refuses to recognise the Jewish state.这笔交易，其中包括卫星制导武器和高科技军火，已震惊以色列和美国国会的一些议员，因为这是揭幕去年7月，尤其是像沙特拒绝承认这个犹太国家。

During his visit to Saudi Arabia, his first visit to the oil-rich US ally, Bush hopes to rally support for his campaign to isolate Iran.在沙特阿拉伯访问时，他首次访华，以石油资源丰富，美国的盟友，布什希望争取支持他的竞选，以孤立伊朗。

His administration, which has also announced a $30bn military aid pact with Israel, has argued the deal with the Saudis is needed to counter what it claims is a “major security threat” from Iran.他的政府，这也宣布了一项300亿美元的军事援助协定，与以色列，辩称这笔交易与沙特人，是需要对付它所称的是一个"重大的安全威胁" ，由伊朗。

A senior US official said Bush will court Riyadh’s diplomatic influence and financial muscle which “could make an enormous difference in places like the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and other locations”.一名美国高级官员说，布什将法院利雅得的外交影响力和财力，其中"可能作出巨大的差异，例如巴勒斯坦领土，黎巴嫩，伊拉克，阿富汗和其他地方" 。

While Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia has voiced concern over the rise of Shia Iran, it is opposed to another war after the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq that has strengthened the Islamic regime in Tehran.而逊尼派统治沙特阿拉伯已表示关切崛起的什叶派穆斯林为主的伊朗，它反对另一场战争后， 2003年以美国为首的入侵伊拉克表示，已加强了德黑兰伊斯兰政权。

Diplomatic tour 外交之旅

In the last few days of his Middle East tour, Bush has been courting Gulf Arab allies to help shore up a US-backed peace effort between Israel and the Palestinians and combat Iran’s growing influence in the region.在过去几天里他的中东之行，布什已经宫廷海湾阿拉伯盟国，帮助了美国支持的和平努力，以色列和巴勒斯坦人之间和打击伊朗日益增长的影响力在该地区。

Saudi Arabia is considered a linchpin for any broader Israeli-Arab reconciliation as Bush presses Israelis and the Palestinians to secure a peace deal before he leaves office in January 2009.沙特阿拉伯被认为是一种重要支柱，任何更广泛的以阿和解，因为，布什塑机以色列人和巴勒斯坦人争取到一个和平协议，在卸任前，在2009年1月。

Iran was also expected to be an important part of Bush’s talks with King Abdullah, the Saudi monarch, and was also discussed in Bush’s earlier meetings with Gulf Arab leaders in the UAE.伊朗也有望成为重要的一部分，布什的会谈中，与阿卜杜拉国王，沙特国王，还讨论了在布什的前几次会议上与海湾阿拉伯国家领导人在阿联酋。

While the Gulf leaders share US concerns about curbing their powerful Shia neighbour, they want to avoid another war in the region.而海湾领导人与美国分享关注遏制其强大的什叶派邻国的，他们想要的，以避免另一场战争在该地区。

“All agreed it’sa difficult problem that needs to be addressed, and at this point pursue in a diplomatic fashion,” Hadley told reporters when asked how UAE leaders had reacted to Bush’s entreaties on Iran. "大家都同意这是困难的问题，需要加以解决，在这一点上，在追求外交时尚， "哈德利对记者说，当被问到如何阿联酋领导人纷纷做出反应，布什的entreaties就伊朗。

Engaging Iran 从事伊朗

Analysts say there are growing signs that America’s Arab allies prefer to engage Iran.分析家说，有越来越多的迹象表明美国的阿拉伯盟国宁愿从事伊朗。

Last year, Saudi Arabia invited Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, to undertake the Hajj, making him the first Iranian president to receive an official invitation to the annual Muslim pilgrimage.去年，沙特阿拉伯邀请艾哈迈迪内贾德，这位伊朗总统，以承担朝觐，使他第一次伊朗总统接受了正式邀请，以每年的朝圣活动。

Also in the region on Monday, was Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, who visited Qatar and was later to travel to the UAE.此外，在该地区周一，是萨尔科奇，法国总统访问了卡塔尔和后来前往阿联酋。

At the start of his regional tour, Sarkozy also met kind Abdullah in Saudi Arabia, where he offered Saudi Arabia help in developing peaceful nuclear energy.在他开始按地区旅行，萨尔科齐还会见了实物阿卜杜拉在沙特阿拉伯，在那里他提供了沙特阿拉伯，帮助发展中国家和平利用核能。

The French president expects to sign aa nuclear co-operation agreement in with the UAE on Tuesday.法国总统预计机管局签署核合作协议，在与阿联酋于周二。

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=54b_1200327598

Why would Bush go to the Mideast now?为什么布什将前往中东地区，现在呢？ It is likely he went to nail down commitments from the Israelis and acquiescence from the Saudis prior to a planned attack on Iran.很可能他到指甲下的承诺，由以色列人和默许下，从沙特之前，有计划，对伊朗发动攻击。 Bush, who neither reads nor writes well, has a low comfort level with diplomatic go-betweens, so this is a look’em in the eye trip to talk about what happens when he pulls the trigger.布什，他们既没有行文，也没有写得很清楚，至今一个低级别的舒适与邦交去协调而，所以这是一个look'em中眼睛之行谈会发生什么时，他掏出了扳机。

If not, what is the alternative explanation for the trip?如果没有的话，是另类的解释此行吗？ He is going to talk about peace talks likely to drift into the fall; change diplomatic tact, such as a demand Israel end the blockade of Gaza; schedule another Annapolis photo-op?他是打算谈和谈可能漂移到秋天;改变外交技巧，如要求以色列结束封锁加沙地带;附表另一安纳波利斯摄影作品吗？ Not likely.不太可能。 In addition, by White House standards this is a stealth trip with the US press attention focused elsewhere.此外，白宫的标准，这是一个隐形之行，与美国媒体关注的重点放在别处。

One possibly related diplomatic element: the White House is demanding North Korea “come clean” about its nuclear program, with the objective of getting some statement from them about working with the Iranians.其中一个可能与外交因素：白宫要求北韩"坦白交代"关于其核计划，其目标是取得一些声明，由他们介绍的工作与伊朗人。 Why an urgent deadline, especially one not in the agreement, unless it is linked to concomitant events?为什么一项紧迫的最后期限，尤其是其中并没有在协议中，除非它是联系在一起伴随事件？ Any statements by North Korea affirming their assistance to Iran, no matter whether the nuclear assistance was weapons related or prior to the reported shut down of the Iranian program, would be presented as “new” intelligence and sold much like the “Sadam/9-11″ connection, trumping, or at least blunting, the recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear program.任何声明，北韩肯定他们为协助伊朗，无论是核援助与武器有关的或事先向举报关闭的伊朗纲领，将作为"新的"情报及出售很像" sadam/9- 11条"方面，大块，或至少钝化，不久前召开的全国情报评估对伊朗的核计划。

Another indication of the White House’s intentions is promotion of an ordinary encounter in the Strait of Hormuz between US Navy Ships and Iranian Patrol Boats into an “incident,” including the imposition of addition sanctions on Iranian officials.另有迹象显示，白宫的用意是促进一个普通遇到的霍尔木兹海峡之间，美海军舰艇和伊朗巡逻艇变成"事件" ，其中包括施加制裁，除了对伊朗官员。

Assuming a decision to attack Iran, given weather and other logistical concerns, combined with attention to the domestic political schedule, the timing would likely be within two to three months or early fall.假设决定攻打伊朗，由于天气及其他后勤关注的问题，再加上注意国内政治的时间表，在时间很可能会在两至3个月或秋季初完成。

Should this occur, the potential for destabilizing domestic and foreign consequences increase substantially, approaching near certainty.一旦如此，可能破坏稳定的国内和国外的后果会大幅增加，已接近近确定性。 This nominally unattractive and reckless gamble would fit Bush’s character as well as the pattern of his governance.这个名义上没有吸引力和不计后果的赌博能配合布什的性格，以及为模式，他的管治。 Also, this is his last shot, with a chance to create conditions in the Mideast that lock in future policy options, as he has in domestic policy with a massive deficit.此外，这是他最后一次拍摄，一个机会，使他们创造条件，在中东地区即锁定在未来的政策选择，因为他在国内政策上，与大规模的赤字。 Given the consequences, he would attack not only his foreign enemies, but at the same time strike at his domestic foes under the cover of the resulting emergency.考虑到后果，他会攻击，不只是他的外国敌人，但在同一时间内罢工，在他的国内政敌的掩护下所产生的紧急情况。

The later the attack on Iran comes, or a significant response from Iran, the more likely it would be combined with or be followed by a formal declaration of a national emergency, possibly affecting US national elections.在后来对伊朗发动攻击的时候，还是一个重要的反应来自伊朗，越有可能会合并或随后举行正式宣布一个国家紧急状态，有可能影响美国的全国选举。 The result would be a de facto coup d’état.其结果将是一个事实上的政变。

Finally, to further assess its likelihood, ask the question: who is to stop him?最后，以进一步评估其可能性，提出这样一个问题：谁是阻止他？ Not Congress; not the courts; not pubic opinion nor the press.不大会;不是法庭，不是舆论，也不是新闻。 The only chance, however slight, of stopping Bush would rest almost entirely with the British government, if Parliament became aware of the plan prior to the commencement of hostilities.唯一的机会，不论如何轻微，阻止布什将其余几乎完全与英国政府，如果国会才知道该计划生效前所作出的敌对行动。

Related News - Naval Encounter:相关新闻-海上遇到：

Video from Iranian Patrol Boat by Iran Press TV 01/10/08影片由伊朗一艘巡逻艇由伊朗新闻电视台01/10/08

Video from US Naval Vessel by US Department of Defense 01/09/08影片由美国舰艇由美国国防部01/09/08

Degrees of Confidence on US-Iran Naval Incident by The New York Times (Blog) 01/10/08程度的信任，伊美海军事件中，由纽约时报（博客） 01/10/08

Related News - North Korean Declaration:相关新闻-北韩的声明：

US Nuclear Envoy Puts Gentle Pressure on North Korea by The New York Times 01/10/08美国核问题特使把温柔向北韩施加压力，由纽约时报01/10/08

North Korea Says Earlier Disclosure Was Enough by The New York Times 01/05/08北韩表示，较早前披露足够由纽约时报01/05/08

US Will Hold North Korea to Nuclear Commitments by The New York Times 01/02/08美将举行朝鲜半岛核承诺，由纽约时报01/02/08

Related News - Bush Visit:相关新闻-布什访问：

ANALYSIS-Gulf Arabs chart delicate course between Iran, US by Reuters 01/10/08分析-海湾阿拉伯人图微妙当然伊朗之间，美国路透社01/10/08

Saudi defends Iran links ahead of Bush visit by Reuters 01/09/08沙乌地保卫伊朗的联系，提前布什访问路透社01/09/08

Iran High on Bush Mideast Trip by Associated Press 01/07/08伊朗高对布什的中东之旅是由美联社记者01/07/08

Bush to press allies on Iran during Mideast trip by Reuters 01/05/08布什向新闻界盟国对伊朗在中东之旅是由路透社01/05/08

US President George W. Bush claims Iran is a threat to global security, calling on Arab allies to join the US to confront the nation. 美国总统布什称伊朗是一个对全球安全构成威胁，呼吁阿拉伯盟国加入美国对抗的民族。

“Iran is today the world’s leading state sponsor of terror,” Bush alleged in his speech in the capital of the UAE, Abu Dhabi. "伊朗是当今世界领先的赞助恐怖主义的国家" ，但布什声称，在他的讲话在首都阿联酋阿布扎比。

He said that Washington and Arab countries must join together to deal with the danger ‘before it’s too late’.他说，华盛顿和阿拉伯国家必须携手合作，以处理危险'之前，它都太迟了' 。

Bush alleged that Iran funded terrorist extremists, undermined peace in Lebanon, and provided arms for the Taliban.布什声称伊朗资助恐怖主义极端分子，破坏黎巴嫩和平，并提供武器，为推翻塔利班政权。

Iran’s actions threaten the security of nations everywhere; it seeks ‘to intimidate its neighbors with missiles and bellicose rhetoric’, Bush continued.伊朗的行动，威胁到各国的安全无处不在，它的目的是'以恐吓其与邻国的导弹和好战言论' ，布什续。

US allies in the region have expressed concern that Bush’s war of words against Tehran may be aimed at drumming up support for military action against Iran.美国的盟国在该地区表示担心布什的战争的话对德黑兰可能旨在鸣锣开道，支持对伊朗采取军事行动。

The oil-rich Arab countries say any conflict could lead to insecurity in the whole region.石油储量丰富的阿拉伯国家说，任何冲突可能会导致不安全的，在整个地区的稳定。

Senior Arab officials have repeatedly said that they will not allow the United States to use their countries as a launch pad for any strike against Iran.阿拉伯国家高级官员已多次表示，他们将不会允许美国使用他们的国家作为一个跳板，任何打击伊朗的。

“Mr. " President, the region needs smart initiatives not smart bombs,” wrote Kuwaiti newspaper al-Rai in a front-page editorial, following Bush’s trip to the country.总统，该地区需要聪明的举措并非聪明炸弹， "写科威特报纸Al -詹瑞在封面页的社论说，布什的这次访问该国。

CS/DT/RE政务司司长/药物疗法/重

The US Navy withdraws the allegation that Iranian patrol boats had threatened to blow up a three-ship US convoy in the Hormuz Strait. 美海军撤回指控说，伊朗的巡逻艇曾扬言炸了一个三舰美军车队在霍尔木兹海峡两岸。

“It could have been a threat aimed at some other nation or a myriad of other things,” The Washington Post quoted US Navy spokesman Rear Admiral Frank Thorp IV as saying on Friday. "这可能是一个威胁，目的是在其他一些国家或一个无数的其他事情， "华盛顿邮报引述美国海军发言人海军少将坦率thorp四说，就周五。

This is while senior US Navy sources have told the BBC that an alleged threat to blow up the US warships ‘may not have come’ from Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz.这是同时，美海军高级消息人士告诉BBC说，被指控的威胁炸毁美国军舰'可能不会使他们从伊朗船只在霍尔木兹海峡。

The Pentagon alleged five Iranian boats belonging to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) had harassed three US Navy warships by threatening to ‘blow them up’ on Sunday.五角大楼声称，伊朗5艘属于伊斯兰革命卫队团（伊斯兰革命卫队）曾骚扰三名美国海军军舰威胁'的打击，他们'对周日。

“No one in the military has said that the transmission emanated from those boats,” said Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell. "没有人在军事上已表示，该输电出自那些船" ，说五角大楼发言人杰夫莫瑞尔。

However, President Bush characterized the incident as ‘provocative’ and ‘dangerous’, warning Iran of serious consequences if it happens again.然而，布什总统的特点是将事件视为'挑衅性'和'危险' ，警告伊朗的严重后果，如果它再发生。

Iranian officials have dismissed the allegation saying the incident was a routine maritime identification check, which is common between vessels in the Persian Gulf.伊朗官员已驳回指控，称这一事件是一次例行性的海上鉴定检查，是一种常见的船只在波斯湾。

MD/RE海事处/重

US is launching a new propaganda campaign against Iran by showing the video of incident in Hormuz Strait, Iran’s Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar says, PressTV reported.Americans have always pursued a vicious plan to present Iran as a threat to the regional countries, Mohammad-Najjar said.美国正展开一个新的宣传活动，对伊朗所表现的录像事件在霍尔木兹海峡两岸，伊朗的国防大臣（ Mostafa穆罕默德- najjar说， presstv reported.americans有一贯奉行一个恶性计划，目前伊朗是一个威胁到区域国家穆罕默德najjar说。

“This propaganda campaign is nothing new, especially during the US President Bush’s visit to the Middle East.” "这一宣传运动是什么新事物，尤其是在美国总统布什的中东访问" 。

The US’ anti-Iran efforts are doomed to failure since Tehran has always had cordial relations with its neighbors, the minister stressed.美国反伊朗的努力是注定要失败的，因为德黑兰一直进行了亲切与邻国的关系，这位部长强调。

Iranian boats call on the US warships to identify themselves was a routine responsibility taken by them on determining identity of any vessels entering into the waters of the Persian Gulf, he elaborated.伊朗船只呼吁美国军舰，以确定自己是一次例行性的责任，他们采取的是确定身份的任何船只进入该水域的波斯湾地区，他还阐述了。

Earlier Wednesday, a member of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC)Navy told Press TV the US video of Sunday’s incident was archive footage and the audio was fake.早些时候周三的一员，伊斯兰革命卫队团（伊斯兰革命卫队） ，海军告诉记者电视台播出美国影片的周日的事件是昔日的画面和音响是假的。

The US Navy has released a footage purportedly showing Iranian boats menacing US Navy warships in Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.美国海军发布了一个据称画面显示伊朗船只来势美海军军舰在霍尔木兹海峡，在波斯湾。

Source源

By 由 Matthew Hay Brown 马修干草布朗

While Washington debates whether it should talk to Iran, one Maryland congressman has already struck up a conversation.而华盛顿辩论是否应该谈论到伊朗，其中马里兰州众议员已经击中了交谈。

For the past year, Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest has been meeting with Iranian officials and business leaders to talk about ways to improve relations between the United States and the Islamic republic that President Bush put in his Axis of Evil.在过去的一年中，众议员韦恩汤匙gilchrest已会见了伊朗官员和商界领袖谈论如何改善美中关系的国家和伊斯兰共和国说，布什总统把他称为邪恶轴心之一。

With the recent release of a US intelligence report concluding that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program four years ago, he now sees an opportunity.由于近期推出的美国情报报告得出结论认为，伊朗中止其核武计划，四年前，他现在认为是一个机会。

“You get this kind of momentum, we will begin a dialogue with Iran,” the Eastern Shore Republican said. "你这样的发展势头，我们将开始与伊朗对话， "花东海岸共和党说。 “If it’s not in this administration - although I think it’s possible - you will see a change in policy so that the next administration will have a better opportunity to openly discuss issues with the Iranians.” "如果它不是在这方面，政府-虽然我认为这是可能的-你会看到一个政策的改变，所以说，今后政府将有一个更好的机会，公开讨论问题，与伊朗人"。

That’s been Gilchrest’s goal since a private meeting last autumn with Iran’s envoy to the United Nations.这就是被gilchrest的目标，因为一次非公开会议去年秋天与伊朗的特使向联合国。 The three-hour session with Ambassador Mohammad Javad Zarif was the start of a continuing effort by Gilchrest, a former Marine who had come to regret his 2002 vote to authorize the use of military force in Iraq, to develop relations with the country that some believed the White House planned to attack next.三小时的会议，与驻华大使穆罕默德扎里夫是一个良好的开始，继续努力gilchrest ，一名前海军陆战队队员，他们已经到了遗憾，他在2002年进行表决，授权使用武力，在伊拉克，以发展关系的国家，有些人认为白宫计划于明年攻击。

He has followed up with other Iranians, exchanged letters with the speaker of the Iranian parliament and organized a group of Republicans and Democrats focused on improving relations.他曾跟进其他伊朗人，互致信函，与国会议长，伊朗议会，并组织了一个小组，对共和党人和民主党人的重点是改善关系的意愿。

Called the Dialogue Caucus, the group is looking to spark broader communication between US and Iranian lawmakers.所谓对话的核心小组，该小组正在寻求更广泛的火花之间的沟通，美国和伊朗的立法者。 To the 61-year-old Gilchrest, wounded as a platoon leader in Vietnam, it’sa matter of “sending old men to talk before we send young men to die.”以今年61岁gilchrest ，受伤一排长，在越南，这件事的"老派男人谈之前，我们派年轻男子死" 。

“What I’ve seen in Congress,” he said, “is when you have two people talking, exchanging information, the potential for solutions is infinite. "什么是我见过在国会， "他说， "当你有两个人交谈，交换信息，有可能的解决办法是无限的。 When they don’t talk, there’s no potential at all.”当他们不说，有没有潜伏在所有" 。

Still, he says, he has no illusions about the difficulty of finding common ground.同时，他指出，他已不存幻想，很难找到共同点。

“These guys are not sprouting halos,” he said.马丁库斯说： "那些不发芽晕， "他说。 “We’re not talking about a poor, misunderstood country. "我们不是在谈论一个穷人，误解了。 But, you know, this is politics.但是，你知道，这是政治。 I’d rather have them talking than shooting at us.”我宁愿他们说话比枪击我们" 。

Gilchrest says Iran has legitimate interests in the security of neighboring Iraq, where it has strong ties to the Shiite majority. gilchrest说，伊朗已经合法权益，在安全的邻国伊拉克，在那里有紧密的连系，以什叶派多数。 He says that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad does not speak for the whole country, any more than Bush speaks for all Americans.他说，伊朗总统艾哈迈迪内贾德，不说话，让整个国家，任何比布什多说话，为所有的美国人。

The largely behind-the-scenes effort is not without political risk.主要是幕后的努力，不是没有政治风险。 Bush says the recent release of the National Intelligence Estimate will not change the administration policy of mostly shunning Iran, which the United States accuses of arming Shiite insurgents in Iraq.布什总统说，最近公布的国家情报评估报告将不会改变政府的政策，大多撤出伊朗，而美国曾指责什叶派武装分子在伊拉克。

The moderate Gilchrest, who has split with his party over Iraq, is facing a strong primary challenge from the right from state Sen. Andrew P. Harris in the conservative 1st Congressional District, which voted twice for Bush.中度gilchrest ，谁分裂与他的党在伊拉克，面对强大的，最主要的挑战来自右的，由州参议员安德鲁页哈里斯在保守一日国会选区，其中两次投给布什。 State Sen. EJ Pipkin and three other Republicans are also vying for the nomination.州参议员对EJ pipkin和其他3个共和党人也在争取提名。

“He joined [Democratic House Speaker] Nancy Pelosi in wanting to try to run the war, and now I guess it seems that he wants to make an end run around the State Department in handling these foreign affairs as well,” Harris said. "他加入[民主党众议院议长]佩洛西在想要尝试运行战争，现在，我猜想他似乎想使结束手忙脚乱，美国国务院在处理这些外交事务看作是好， "哈里斯说。 “Freelancing on the part of Foreign Service wannabes … is probably not the best thing for this country.” " freelancing对部分对外服务想要…恐怕不是最好的事情，为这个国家" 。

Efforts by lawmakers to reach out to nations with whom the United States has troubled relations have a long and not very productive history.努力立法者所接触到的国家，其中美国已困扰关系有着悠久而不是非常有成效的历史。

But former Democratic Rep. Lee H. Hamilton, whose Iraq Study Group urged the administration to open talks with Iran, says that outreach of the sort that Gilchrest is attempting is “exactly what is needed.”不过，前民主党众议员李汉密尔顿每小时的伊拉克研究小组促请政府当局公开与伊朗的谈判表示，外展的那种gilchrest是企图是， "正是我们所需要的" 。

Gilchrest says he has told Bush of the effort and has kept the administration apprised of his contacts. gilchrest说，他已经告诉布什的努力，并不断向当局了解他的接触。 A State Department spokeswoman said members of Congress are free to speak with whomever they choose - but added that “we would hope that if they did engage in discussions with members of the Iranian government, they would reiterate our policy and explain to them the clearly outlined steps that they need to take in order to come to the negotiating table with the United States.”美国国务院女发言人说，国会议员们可以自由发言，与何人，他们所选择的人-但他补充说： "我们希望，如果他们没有参与讨论的成员，伊朗政府，他们将重申我们的政策和向他们解释清楚勾划步骤，即他们必须采取以来到谈判桌前，与美国" 。

The United States and Iran recently agreed to a fourth round of talks between their ambassadors in Baghdad to discuss security in Iraq.美国和伊朗最近同意举行第四轮会谈，两国大使在巴格达，讨论伊拉克的安全。 But US officials say they will not hold higher-level meetings or broaden the discussion to other topics unless Iran stops processing the uranium that they say still could be used for nuclear weapons.但美国官员说，他们将不会举行更高层次的会议或扩大讨论的其他议题，除非伊朗停止加工浓缩铀，他们说，仍有可能被用于核武器。

The focus on foreign affairs is something of a departure for Gilchrest.重点放在外交事务，是一个出发gilchrest 。 The former high school social studies teacher has been better known for his interest in the environment as a member of the House Natural Resources and Transportation committees.前者高中社会科老师已经更好地知道他对环境问题的兴趣，作为众议院议员的自然资源和交通委员会。

Then came the Iraq war, on which he says he was “sold a bill of goods,” and what he sees as an increasingly and unnecessarily confrontational approach to the world by both the White House and Congress.接着又是伊拉克战争，对他说，他是"卖法案品" ，他认为，作为一个日益及不必要的对抗方式，向全世界都白宫和国会。 He has visited Iraq three times since the 2003 invasion, and has also traveled to Syria, Israel, Jordan and other countries in the region.他已经访问了伊拉克的三倍，自2003年美国入侵，并已前往叙利亚，以色列，约旦和该地区其他国家。

“I just couldn’t sit on the side any longer and watch all this stuff unfold,” he said. "我只是不能坐于方任何时间更长，观赏这一切的东西展开， "他说。 “I hear my colleagues. "我听到了我的同事。 I see resolution after resolution coming to the floor condemning this one and condemning that one.我看到决议案后，决议案来发言谴责这一之一，并谴责说，其中一项。 Isolating the Palestinians, not talking to the Iranians, calling people evil empires.孤立巴勒斯坦人，不能说，以伊朗人，号召人们邪恶帝国。 They’re trying to put out fires by throwing on more dry logs.”他们正试图扑灭大火，由扔就更加干燥原木" 。

A former senior US intelligence official says Israel will ultimately attack Iran in order ‘to defend its nuclear monopoly’ in the region. 一名前美国高级情报官员说，以色列最终将攻打伊朗为了'捍卫自己的核垄断，在该地区。

“I came back from a trip to Israel in November convinced that Israel would attack Iran,” said Bruce Riedel, the former CIA official and senior adviser to three US presidents, including George W. Bush, on Thursday. "我回来一趟以色列在十一月确信，以色列将攻击伊朗，说： "布鲁斯里德尔，前中情局官员和高级顾问3名美国总统，包括布什总统，对周四。

Riedel said his conversations with Israeli officials and Mossad proved to him that Tel Aviv is planning to strike Iran’s nuclear sites.里德尔说，他与以色列官员和摩萨德证明他说，特拉维夫正计划罢工伊朗境内的核设施。

“And that was before the NIE [US National Intelligence Estimate]. "这是前聂[美国国家情报评估报告] 。 This makes it even more likely,” Newsweek quoted Riedel as saying.这使得它更可能， "新闻周刊引述里德尔说。

Political pundits believe the Israelis consider the recent US intelligence assessment as a signal of Washington’s reluctance to follow the Zionist regime’s hawkish policies towards Iran.政治观察家相信，以色列人认为最近美国情报评估作为一种信号，华盛顿不愿跟随犹太复国主义政权的鹰派政策对伊朗。

Riedel added that the Bush administration’s failure to discuss the NIE report with Israeli intelligence agencies before its release on Dec. 3 only complicated the problem for Israel.里德尔补充说，布什政府的失败，讨论聂报告与以色列情报机构之前，其释放于12月3日，只有复杂的问题，对以色列的偏袒。

The prevailing view among Israeli intelligence officials is that the NIE has isolated the Zionist regime in its attempts to portray Tehran’s nuclear program as a threat.普遍的看法是以色列情报官员说，聂已经孤立犹太复国主义政权在试图描绘德黑兰的核计划是一个威胁。

MD/HGH/RE海事处/生长激素/重

A former senior CIA analyst says the United States and Israel are planning war against Iran before the next presidential election. 一名前中情局高级分析师说，美国和以色列正计划对伊朗开战之前，在明年的总统大选。

Ray McGovern said Monday despite a recent National Intelligence Estimate conceding that Iran is not conducting a nuclear weapons program, a joint US and Israeli war on the Islamic Republic is likely to happen.

The former analyst expounded that the close American relationship with Israel, which alleges Iran is a threat to its existence and to the international community, is the driving force behind a potential strike.

McGovern called on those wishing to prevent a military conflict with Iran to voice their opposition to President Bush’s headstrong approach towards Tehran and its nuclear program.

Although the report by US intelligence services has meant another embarrassment for the White House over its accusation against Tehran, the US president seems to be indifferent to the assessment.

President Bush, who is scheduled to visit Jerusalem in January, bald-facedly continues his rhetoric against the Islamic Republic, claiming Tehran poses a threat to the international community.

MD/MG