白宮的策略是協助麥凱恩贏得十一月份

White House strategy is to help McCain win in November白宮的策略是協助麥凱恩贏得十一月份

Thursday, September 4th, 2008 週四， 2008年9月4日

The Fake US Victory in Iraq假冒美國在伊拉克的勝利

The Independent獨立 | Political events in Iraq are seldom what they seem. |政治在伊拉克發生的事件很少，他們似乎什麼。 The hand- over by the US military of control of Anbar province, once the heartland of the Sunni rebellion, to Iraqi forces is a case in point.手-由美軍控制的安巴爾省，一旦心臟遜尼派叛亂，伊拉克部隊是一個很好的例子。 The US will keep 25,000 American soldiers in Anbar, so the extent to which the Iraqi government will really take over is debatable.美國將保持25000名美軍士兵在安巴爾省，所以在何種程度上，伊拉克政府真的會接管，是值得商榷的。 But the future of Anbar is a crucial pointer to the fate of Iraq.但未來的安巴爾省是一個關鍵的指針的命運伊拉克。 It is a vast area and one of the few parts of Iraq that is overwhelmingly Sunni.它是一個廣闊的領域和其中的幾個部分，伊拉克是壓倒遜尼派。

The Iraqi government is dominated by Shia Islamic parties in alliance with Kurdish nationalists.伊拉克政府是由什葉派為主的伊斯蘭黨派在聯盟與庫爾德民族主義者。 The vital question now is whether or not this Shia-dominated government can reassure the Sunni minority that they are not going to be overrun as the US withdraws its forces.切身現在的問題是，是否有或沒有這個什葉派佔主導地位的政府可以放心的遜尼派，他們不打算要超支，隨著美國撤走其軍隊。 The Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is in a very confident mood.首相， nouri基地-馬利基，是在一個非常自信的心情。 In the past four months he feels he has successfully faced down the Shia militiamen of Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army by taking back control of Basra, Sadr City and Amarah.在過去的四個月中，他覺得他已經成功地面對下跌的什葉派民兵薩德爾薩德爾的邁赫迪軍以回控制巴士拉，薩德爾城和阿馬拉。 Then he refused to sign a new security accord with the US which President George Bush wanted to see agreed by August 31.然後，他拒絕簽署一項新的安全協議與美國總統布什希望看到商定8月31日。

In the past few weeks he has been confronting his Kurdish allies over the future of the oil city of Kirkuk and the town of Khanaqin.在過去數星期以來，他一直面臨他的庫爾德盟國未來的石油城市基爾庫克和城市的哈奈根。

Mr Maliki may be overplaying his hand but there is no doubt that the Iraqi state is becoming more powerful in Iraq and the Mahdi Army, the Americans and the Kurds less so.議員馬利基可能誇大了他的手，但，這是毫無疑問的是，伊拉克的國家越來越強大，在伊拉克和邁赫迪軍，美國人和庫爾德人少。 The Americans in particular feel that he exaggerates the extent to which his success against the Mahdi Army was because of the new strength of the Iraqi security forces.美國人，尤其是覺得他誇大了何種程度，他的成功對邁赫迪軍是因為新的力量，伊拉克安全部隊。

These troops were doing badly until they received American support.這些部隊正在做的嚴重，直到他們收到了美國的支持。
Nevertheless, Mr Maliki’s position is strong.不過，議員馬利基的立場是強烈。 He seems to have realized that he may need the US, but the US also cannot do without him and is in no position to replace him as it did with his predecessor, Ibrahim al-Jaafari.他似乎已經意識到，他可能需要美國，但是美國也不能沒有他，是在沒有立場，以取代他，因為它沒有與他的前任，易卜拉欣賈法裡。

Much of what the White House is now doing is done to help the Republicans in the presidential election.大部分什麼白宮，是政府目前所做的做是為了幫助共和黨在總統選舉。 The aim is to give the impression that Iraq has finally come right for the US and victory is finally in its grasp.目的是要給人一種印象，伊拉克終於來到了正確的，美國和最後的勝利是在其掌握。 The surge is promoted as the strategy by which the tide was turned and it is true that the Sunni uprising against the US occupation has largely ended.風是晉升為戰略，其中紅潮拒絕和，這是事實遜尼派起義反對美國的佔領已經在很大程度上結束。

But it has done so for reasons that have little to do with the surge or American actions of any kind.但它這樣做的原因，有沒有什麼與風或美國的行動，任何形式的保證。 Crucial to the success of the government against the Mahdi Army has been the support of Iran.成功的關鍵，政府對邁赫迪軍一直支持伊朗。 It is they who arranged for the Shia militiamen to go home.這是他們誰安排什葉派民兵回家。

It takes real cheek for Mr Bush to claim yesterday that “Anbar is no longer lost to al-Qa’ida” since during the last presidential election in 2004, he was claiming that the media was exaggerating the success of the insurgents.需要真正的臉頰議員要求布什昨天說， “安巴爾省已不再是失去基地”以來，在去年總統選舉在2004年，他被稱媒體誇大成功的叛亂分子。

Patrick Cockburn is the Ihe author of “Muqtada: Muqtada Al-Sadr, the Shia Revival, and the Struggle for Iraq帕特里克科伯恩是IHE的作者“薩德爾：薩德爾薩德爾的支持者，什葉派的復興，和鬥爭伊拉克

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