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وسط باكستان مذبح, `كابوس سيناريو' لالولايات المتّحدة الأمريكيّة سياسة
يوم الإثنين, أكتوبر - تشرين الأوّل [22ند], 2007
ناشد المشاهد أخيرة مذبح في باكستان ماذا واحدة كبريات إدارة مسؤولة دعا "الكابوس سيناريو" لرئيس جورج [و.]. بوش أخرى 15 شهور في مكتب: انصهار سياسيّة في الواحدة بلد حيث [أل] [قدا], [تليبن] وسلاح نوويّ يكون كلّ في لعبة. البيت الأبيض ألحّ مسؤولات في مقابلات أنّ هم تلقّوا ثقة أنّ حليفهم [لونغتيم], جنرال [برفز] [موشرّف], أبقى بما فيه الكفاية تحكم أن يحافظ البلد إصطبل بما أنّ هو حدّ نحو [بوور-شرينغ] إتفاق مع منافسته رئيسيّة, [بنزير] [بهوتّو]. غير أنّ أخرى حاليّة وحذّر [فورمر وفّيسل] أنّ ستّة سنون بعد الولايات المتّحدة الأمريكيّة أجبروا [موشرّف] أن يختار جوانب في الأيام بعد ال [سبت.]. حدّدت 11, 2001, هجوم, قدرة رافعة أمريكيّة على باكستان الآن. رغم أنّ [موشرّف] يبدو محتمل أن يبقى [مولتيفرونت] تحدي إلى سلطته, أضعفت هو. برهن جهده في توفيق في باكستان مناطق قبليّة, حيث [أل] [قدا] [تليبن] يخطّط ويدرّب, إخفاق. يبرهن جهوده أن يأخذهم فوق عسكريّا يتلقّى [س فر] غيرفعّال وسياسيّا غالية. تقريبا كلّ كبريات ذعر هجوم منذ [سبت.]. تتبّعت 11 يتلقّى يكون [بك تو] أرض باكستانيّ, يقود كثير الذي يعمل في ذكاء أن يصدق أنّ باكستان, لا العراق, المكان بوش سوفت اعتبرت ال "جبهة مركزية" في المعركة ضدّ إرهاب. باكستان كان أيضا المصدر من التسرب عظيمة من [نوكلر رمس] تكنولوجيا في [مودرن تيم]. بعد سنون من حلّ وسط و [ترد-وفّس], هناك أسئلة في وخارج الإدارة حوالي ما إذا قد استثمر بوش أيضا بثقل في زعيمة وحيدة باكستانيّة, [أفر-رلينس] أنّ يمكن يتلقّى منعت الإدارة من يفحص خيارات [لونجر-ترم] استراتيجيّة [إين دلينغ ويث] بلد بوش يعيّن, نوعا ما [أبتيميستيكلّي], "حليف كبريات [نون-نتو]." "خاط هو أبدا معا," دانييل [مركي], دولة قسم مسؤولة الذي عالج مع باكستان حتّى هو يسارا حكومة هذا سنة, يقال في يوم الجمعة. "في كلّ خطوة, كان هناك كثير خطر نفور - بسبب الخطر من يهزّ الزورق بدا لذلك عال - من هناك كان رؤية حقيقيّة استراتيجيّة." حتّى بعض كبريات إدارة قال مسؤولات سرّا, يدوّي منظرات يحتوى في أخيرة ذكاء تقييمات, أنّ الولايات المتّحدة الأمريكيّة influence over events in Pakistan may be ebbing fast. Some officials worry aloud that a year of unrest, violence and political intrigue in Pakistan may undercut Bush’s last chance to root out Osama bin Laden from the lawless territory where Al Qaeda has regrouped, and could cripple a renewed administration effort to turn around the war against Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan. If serious divisions emerge in Pakistan’s military, they could also threaten the security of the country’s potent nuclear arsenal, something that Bush administration officials worry about far more than they let on publicly. Over the past year, the Musharraf government has quietly sent officials to Washington to assure Bush administration officials that even if the general were ousted or assassinated, the mechanisms for controlling both weapons and nuclear technology - safeguards that Pakistan acknowledges it has put together with aid from other countries - are unbreakable. Several officials who have left the administration say they are less than sanguine about the prospect that Pakistan’s troubles will just settle down. “We have to remember that the U.S. doesn’t have very much capability to affect internal developments” in Pakistan, said Robert Blackwill, a former U.S. ambassador to India and a senior official in the National Security Council during Bush’s first term. “What I am struck by are the trends we see today: The North-West Province is ungovernable and a sanctuary for terrorists,” he said. “The politics are fractured and deeply unstable, Musharraf is weaker and the army is uncertain which way it will go.” A senior administration official, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issues, argued in an interview on Friday that U.S. steps to coax Musharraf toward democracy had worked. Instability and paralysis in Islamabad “is certainly one scenario, but hardly the only one,” he said. Have Your Say: Amid Pakistan carnage, a ‘nightmare scenario’ for U.S. policy Please read our posting guidelines before posting. Alternatively you can discuss this report here. Related News
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