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Fisk: Afghanistan in Crisis费斯克:阿富汗危机

Monday, December 1st, 2008 星期一, 2008年12月一号

By通过 Robert Fisk罗伯特菲斯克 | The collapse of Afghanistan is closer than the world believes. |的崩溃,阿富汗是接近世界相信。 Kandahar is in Taliban hands—all but a square mile at the centre of the city—and the first Taliban checkpoints are scarcely 15 miles from Kabul.坎大哈是塔利班手中,所有,但平方英里的中心城市和塔利班的第一站是15英里几乎从喀布尔。 Hamid Karzai’s deeply corrupted government is almost as powerless as the Iraqi cabinet in Baghdad’s “Green Zone”; lorry drivers in the country now carry business permits issued by the Taliban which operate their own courts in remote areas of the country.卡尔扎伊政府深感损坏几乎是无能为力的伊拉克政府在巴格达“绿区” ;货车司机在该国开展业务现在发放的许可证塔利班经营自己的法院在该国偏远地区。

The Red Cross has already warned that humanitarian operations are being drastically curtailed in ever larger areas of Afghanistan; more than 4,000 people, at least a third of them civilians, have been killed in the past 11 months, along with scores of Nato troops and about 30 aid workers.红十字会已经警告说,人道主义行动正在大幅度削减在越来越多的阿富汗地区;超过4000人,至少有三分之一是平民,被打死在过去11个月,随着几十北约部队和有关30日救援人员。 Both the Taliban and Mr Karzai’s government are executing their prisoners in ever greater numbers.塔利班和卡尔扎伊政府正在执行中的囚犯人数越来越多。 The Afghan authorities hanged five men this month for murder, kidnap or rape—one prisoner, a distant relative of Mr Karzai, predictably had his sentence commuted—and more than 100 others are now on Kabul’s death row.阿富汗当局绞死五名男子本月初谋杀,绑架或强奸一名囚犯,一个远房亲戚的卡尔扎伊,可预见他的减刑和100多个其他国家现在对喀布尔的死囚。

This is not the democratic, peaceful, resurgent, “gender-sensitive” Afghanistan that the world promised to create after the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001.这不是民主,和平,复兴, “性别问题敏感的”阿富汗,世界承诺将建立后,推翻塔利班政权在2001年。 Outside the capital and the far north of the country, almost every woman wears the all-enshrouding burkha, while fighters are now joining the Taliban’s ranks from Kashmir, Uzbekistan, Chechnya and even Turkey.在首都以外地区和北部的国家,几乎每个女人穿的全enshrouding burkha ,而现在战士加入塔利班的队伍从克什米尔,乌兹别克斯坦,车臣和土耳其。 More than 300 Turkish fighters are now believed to be in Afghanistan, many of them holding European passports. 300多名土耳其士兵目前被认为在阿富汗,其中许多是持有欧洲护照。

“Nobody I know wants to see the Taliban back in power,” a Kabul business executive says—anonymity is now as much demanded as it was before 2001—“but people hate the government and the parliament which doesn’t care about their security. “我知道没有人希望看到塔利班掌权后, ”喀布尔企业主管表示,现在不愿透露姓名的多要求,因为它是在2001年之前-“人民群众深恶痛绝,但在政府和议会不关心他们的安全。 The government is useless.政府是毫无用处的。 With so many internally displaced refugees pouring into Kabul from the countryside, there’s mass unemployment—but of course, there are no statistics.由于如此众多的国内流离失所的难民涌入喀布尔来自农村,还有大量失业,但当然,没有统计。

“The ‘open market’ led many of us into financial disaster.他说: “开放的市场,使我们许多人到金融灾难。 Afghanistan is just a battlefield of ideology, opium and political corruption.阿富汗是一个战场,意识形态,鸦片和政治腐败。 Now you’ve got all these commercial outfits receiving contracts from people like USAID.现在您可以使用所有这些装备获得的商业合同从美国国际开发署这样的人。 First they skim off 30 to 50 per cent for their own profits—then they contract out and sub-contract to other companies and there’s only 10 per cent of the original amount left for the Afghans themselves.”首先,他们撇了30至百分之五十为自己的利润,那么他们的合同及分包合同的其他公司及中只有百分之十的原始金额留给阿富汗人自己。 “

Afghans working for charitable organisations and for the UN are telling their employers that they are coming under increasing pressure to give information to the Taliban and provide them with safe houses.阿富汗人工作的慈善机构和联合国都告诉他们的雇主,他们正在受到越来越大的压力,以提供资料给塔利班,并为他们提供庇护所。 In the countryside, farmers live in fear of both sides in the war.在农村,农民生活在恐惧中双方在这场战争。 A very senior NGO official in Kabul—again, anonymity was requested—says both the Taliban and the police regularly threaten villagers.一个非常高级的非政府组织官员在喀布尔再次,不愿透露姓名的要求,称塔利班和警察经常威胁村民。 “A Taliban group will arrive at a village headman’s door at night—maybe 15 or 16 of them—and say they need food and shelter. “塔利班组将达成一个村长的大门在晚上,也许15年或16人,并说他们需要食物和住所。 And the headman tells the villagers to give them food and let them stay at the mosque.村长和村民们告诉给他们的粮食,让他们留在清真寺里。 Then the police or army arrive in the day and accuse the villagers of colluding with the Taliban, detain innocent men and threaten to withhold humanitarian aid.然后,警察或军队抵达当天,并指责村民勾结塔利班扣留无辜的男人,并威胁要停止人道主义援助。 Then there’s the danger the village will be air-raided by the Americans.”其次是危险的村将空中突击的美国人。 “

In the city of Ghazni, the Taliban ordered all mobile phones to be switched off from 5pm until 6am for fear that spies would use them to give away guerrilla locations.在加兹尼市,塔利班下令将所有的手机关闭,直到下午5点从早上6点担心间谍会使用他们放弃游击位置。 The mobile phone war may be one conflict the government is winning.移动电话的战争可能是冲突的政府是胜利。 With American help the Interior Ministry police can now track and triangulate calls.与美国帮助内政部警察现在可以跟踪和三角的来电。 Once more, the Americans are talking about forming “tribal militias” to combat the Taliban, much as they did in Iraq and as the Pakistani authorities have tried to do on the North West Frontier.一旦更重要的是,美国人在谈论形成“部落民兵” ,以打击塔利班,就像他们在伊拉克和巴基斯坦当局曾试图这样做对西北边境。 But the tribal lashkars of the [1980s] were corrupted by the Russians and when the system was first tried out two years ago—it was called the Auxiliary Police Force—it was a fiasco.但是,部落lashkars的[ 1980 ]被损坏的俄罗斯时,该系统是第一次尝试了两年前,它被称为辅警,这是一个失败。 The newly-formed constabulary stopped showing up for work, stole weapons and turned themselves into private militias.新成立的警察的停止展示了工作,偷走了武器和自首到私人民兵。

“Now every time a new Western ambassador arrives in Kabul, they dredge it all up again,” another NGO official says in near despair. “现在,每当一个新的西方驻华大使抵达喀布尔,他们都疏通了, ”另一个非政府组织官员说,在不久的绝望。 “ ’Oh,’ they proclaim, ‘let’s have local militias—what a bright idea.’ But that will not solve the problem. “ '噢,他们宣布, '让我们有地方民兵,什么是光明的想法。 ' ,但这将不会解决这个问题。 The country is subject to brigandage as well as the cruelty of the Taliban and the air raids which Afghans find so outrageous.我国是受土匪,以及残酷的塔利班和空袭,其中的阿富汗人找到这样令人不能容忍的。 The international community has got to stop spinning and do some fundamental thinking which should have been done four or five years ago.”国际社会必须停止旋转,并做一些基本思想本来应该做四,五年前。 “

What this means to those Westerners who have spent years in Kabul is simple.这意味着这些西方人谁花了几年在喀布尔很简单。 Is it really the overriding ambition of Afghans to have “democracy”?真的是压倒一切的野心的阿富汗人有“民主” ? Is a strong federal state possible in Afghanistan?是一个强大的联邦州可能在阿富汗? Is the international community ready to take on the warlords and drug barons who are within Mr Karzai’s own government?国际社会准备采取的军阀和毒枭谁是卡尔扎伊在自己的政府? And—most important of all—is development really about “securing the country”?和最重要的,是发展真正的“保证国” ? The tired old American adage that “where the Tarmac ends, the Taliban begins” is untrue.累岁的美国这句格言,即“在停机坪结束后,塔利班开始”是不真实的。 The Taliban are mounting checkpoints on those very same newly-built roads.塔利班越来越检查站同样这些新建的道路。

The Afghan Minister of Defence has 65,000 troops under his dubious command but says he needs 500,000 to control Afghanistan.阿富汗国防部长65000部队已根据其可疑的命令,但表示,他需要500000控制阿富汗。 The Soviets failed to contain the country even when they had 100,000 troops here with 150,000 Afghan soldiers in support.苏联未能遏制该国甚至当他们在这里100000部队与阿富汗士兵150000支持。 And as Barack Obama prepares to send another 7,000 US soldiers into the pit of Afghanistan, the Spanish and Italians are talking of leaving while the Norwegians may pull their 500 troops out of the area north of Heart.和奥巴马准备再派7000美军士兵进入阿富汗坑,西班牙和意大利正在谈论离开,而挪威可能会撤出500名士兵离开该地区北部的心。 Repeatedly, Western leaders talk of the “key”—of training more and more Afghans to fight in the army.一而再,再而西方国家领导人谈论的“钥匙” ,培训更多的阿富汗人作斗争的军队。 But that was the same “key” which the Russians tried—and it did not fit the lock.但是,这是一样的“钥匙”的俄罗斯人试图与它不适合锁。

“We” are not winning in Afghanistan. “我们”没有赢得在阿富汗。 Talk of crushing the Taliban seems as bleakly unrealistic as it has ever been.谈粉碎塔利班似乎bleakly不现实的,因为它曾经。 Indeed, when the President of Afghanistan tries to talk to Mullah Omar—one of America’s principal targets in this wretched war—you know the writing is on the wall.事实上,当阿富汗总统试图交谈的毛拉奥马尔,而美国的主要目标在这个可怜的战争你知道写作是在墙上。 And even Mullah Omar didn’t want to talk to Mr Karzai.甚至毛拉奥马尔不想谈论卡尔扎伊先生。

Partition is the one option that no one will discuss—giving the southern part of Afghanistan to the Taliban and keeping the rest—but that will only open another crisis with Pakistan because the Pashtuns, who form most of the Taliban, would want all of what they regard as “Pashtunistan”; and that would have to include much of Pakistan’s own tribal territories.分区是一个选择,没有人会讨论,使南部地区的阿富汗塔利班和保持休息,但只会打开另一场危机,因为与巴基斯坦的普什图人,谁的形式大多数是塔利班,希望所有的什么他们认为“ Pashtunistan ” ; ,而且必须包括许多巴基斯坦自己的部落地区。 It will also be a return to the “Great Game” and the redrawing of borders in south-west Asia, something which—history shows— has always been accompanied by great bloodshed.它也将回归“大博弈”和重划边界西南亚,这是历史表明,一直伴随着巨大的流血冲突。


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This entry was posted on Monday, December 1st, 2008 at 7:16 am and is filed under本条目被张贴在周一, 2008年12月1日在上午07点16分,并提交下 Opinion意见 . You can follow any responses to this entry through the您可以按照任何反应,这个项目通过 RSS 2.0 2.0 feed. You can饲料。您可以 leave a response留下一个反应 , or trackback引用 from your own site.从您自己的网站。
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