When Donald Trump became president, days became dog years – except that the changes have been more chaotic and less predictable.
What seems likely one day seems out of the question the next. Lately, the pace and the level of chaos has actually picked up. Predicting what will come next is therefore an even riskier business than it was a few months or even weeks ago.
Even so, Steve Bannon’s claim that there is roughly one chance in three that Trump will resign or that he will be impeached or that his Vice President and cabinet secretaries will depose him by activating the Twenty-fifth Amendment is as good a guess as any.
Bannon is, for the time being, persona non grata in Trumpland. For this, everyone this side of the Tea Party is pleased. They should savor the moment.
Trump’s deposed advisor is plainly a vile human being, but that is not why he stood out. Everybody in Trumpland is vile. The difference is that none of the others have functioning brains. Because Bannon does, the chances are a lot better than one in three that, before long, he and the Donald will make up. If Trump can use him, he will welcome him back.
Bannon is smarter than Trump and other Trumpians, but he is far from smart by normal standards, and he is anything but infallible. His one chance in three prediction already seems a tad dated.
Looking ahead at a six to ten month time horizon, I’d give slightly better odds than Bannon did on…