Some fall predictions:
+ The Chicago Cubs, having added Daniel Murphy to their roster, will go to the World Series again, to be defeated by a superior American League club, likely the Red Sox (51% probability).
+ The quasi-fascist U.S. President Donald J. Trump will pardon his recently convicted and former campaign manager Paul Manafort. (65% probability). (Whether this happens before or after the mid-term Congressional elections I can’t say – probably sooner rather than later to prevent Manafort from spilling any beans to federal sentence-negotiators.)
+ The Democrats will win a small majority in the U.S. House of Representatives (63% probability) in the 2018 mid-term elections, raising the distinct possibility that Trump will be impeached in 2019.
+ The Republicans will retain control of the U.S. Senate (67%) in the mid-terms (the Republicans are defending just 8 Senate seats while the Democrats are defending 26, including 10 seats in states won by Trump in 2016), something that should (but see my postscript-like endnote ) keep Trump’s removal off the table (see endnote  on why I will now notput a probability number on this) in the absence of shocking new slam-dunk evidence about his criminality and immorality.
+ Manafort will be convicted all over again in his next trial (90%), if it goes ahead.
+ The criminal investigations and allegations around Trump’s violations of campaign finance laws and laws against…