Prime Minister Theresa May’s future will be determined by dissident Tories and the party’s fear of Jeremy Corbyn, who can deploy a no-confidence motion if the Brexit deal fails in Parliament, analysts told RT.
The crucial Brexit vote scheduled for Tuesday is expected to end up with a “very heavy defeat” for May, former MP and author George Galloway told RT.
May urged everyone to get behind the withdrawal deal, but that outcome is hard to imagine, considering how little support the deal enjoys, Galloway believes.
It’s inconceivable that the prime minister’s plan can go through.
The PM will have an extra hard time selling her plan because, aside from the opposition Labour Party, she has to convince members of her own camp who argue that the terms agreed upon with the leadership of the EU leave Britain in a weaker position.
“The Labour Party is going to vote against it, and there will be enough Tory MPs to vote against it as well,” said British journalist Neil Clark. He also believes that it “looks unlikely” that May’s Brexit option will succeed but her allies will perform a last-minute push to persuade the dissidents.
But Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn called for a new election if the deal is rejected. And the Tories will try to avoid this scenario, Galloway said, as their strong “fear of a Corbyn government” will ultimately “stabilize” the support for Conservative leaders.
But the “days of Theresa May’s premiership are numbered,” he continued, feeling confident that the failure to drive the Brexit deal through Parliament will mean doom for the PM.
May survived a no-confidence vote in December after she abruptly postponed the Brexit vote for five weeks. Clark told RT that Labour might launch another push to unseat the PM if her deal flops by a large margin.
But one “shouldn’t get excited about Tories voting for a no-confidence motion,” he warned, adding that ousting May would be a difficult task to fulfill.
The Tory rebels tend to disappear when there is a chance of government falling. It would be turkeys voting for Christmas.
The Conservatives won’t risk calling new election either, Clark stressed. “The establishment in Britain is desperate to avoid the possibility of a government led by Jeremy Corbyn. Stopping Corbyn is really a number-one priority for Tories,” he said.
The UK is set to officially exit the EU on March 29, with officials in Brussels firmly saying that there is no room for renegotiation.
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