Ignored Reality Is Going To Wipe Out the Human Race – Paul Craig Roberts


Ignored Reality Is Going To Wipe Out The Human Race

Paul Craig Roberts

To inform people is hard slugging. Everything is lined up against the public being informed, or the policymakers for that matter. News is contaminated by its service to special interests and hidden agendas. Many scientists or their employers are dependent on federal money. Even psychologists and anthropologists were roped into the government’s torture and occupation programs. Economists tell lies for corporations and Wall Street. Plant and soil scientists tell lies for agribusiness and Monsanto. Truth tellers are slandered and persecuted. However, persistence can eventually win out. In the long-run, truth sometimes emerges. But not always. And not always in time.

I have been trying to inform the American people, economists, and policymakers for more than a decade about the adverse impacts of jobs offshoring on the US economy. The word has eventually gotten out. Last week I was contacted by 8th grade students competing for their school in CSPAN’s StudentCam Documentary Contest. They want to interview me on the subject of jobs offshoring for their documentary film.

America is a strange place. Here are eighth graders far ahead of the economics profession, the President, the Congress, the Federal Reserve, Wall Street, and the financial press in their understanding of one of the fundamental problems of the US economy. Yet, people say the public schools are failing. Obviously, not the one whose students contacted me.

Is it too late? I know much, but not all. So this is not the final word. I think it might be too late. When skilled jobs are sent abroad, the skills disappear at home. So do the supply chains and the businesses associated with the skills. Things close down, and abilities are lost. Why take a major in collage for a job that is offshored. A culture disappears.

But we can start them back up, right? Perhaps not. When a First World country exports its technology and know-how abroad to a Third World country in order to benefit from lower cost labor, how does the First World country get the work back? Living standards and the cost of living in Third World countries are much lower than in First World countries. The populations of First World countries cannot pay their mortgages, car payments, student loans, medical care, and grocery bills with the wages of Third World countries.

When First World wages drop, mortgage, car, credit card, and student loan payments do not drop. Americans cannot live on Chinese, Indian, and Indonesian wages. Once the technology and know-how is transferred, the low wage country has the advantage in the absence of tariff protection.

For America to revive, our economy would have to be walled off with high tariffs, and subsidies would have to be provided in order to recreate US industry and manufacturing. But many corporations now produce offshore, and America is broke. The government has been $1 trillion dollars in the hole each year for the last 5 years.

Jobs offshoring diminished the US tax base. When a job is sent abroad, so is that job’s contribution to US GDP and tax base. When millions of jobs are sent abroad, US GDP and tax base cannot support government spending levels. To the extent that there are any replacement jobs, they are in lowly paid domestic services, such as waitresses, bartenders, retail clerks, and hospital orderlies. These jobs do not provide a tax base or consumer spending power comparable to manufacturing jobs and tradable professional services such as software engineering and information technology.

Republicans and increasingly Democrats, as both parties are dependent on the same sources of campaign contributions, blame “entitlements.” By entitlements they mean welfare.

In fact, entitlements consist of Social Security and Medicare. Entitlements are funded by the payroll tax, approximately 15% of payroll. The fact that a person pays the payroll tax all his working life is why the person is entitled to Social Security and Medicare if they live to retirement age. Welfare, such as food stamps and housing subsidies, are a small part of the federal budget and are not entitlements.

Every since President Reagan was betrayed three decades ago by Alan Greenspan and David Stockman, both of whom sold out to Wall Street and raised the Social Security payroll tax above what was needed to pay Social Security benefits in order to protect Wall Street’s stock and bond portfolios from exaggerated deficit fears, Social Security payroll tax revenues have exceeded Social Security payments. As of today, Social Security revenues exceed payments to beneficiaries by an accumulated $2 trillion. The money was used by the federal government to pay for its wars and other spending programs. The Social Security Trust Fund holds non-marketable IOUs from the Treasury. These IOUs can only be made good from an excess of tax revenues over expenditures or by the Treasury selling $2 trillion in bonds, notes, and bills and paying off its IOUs to the Social Security Trust Fund. This is not going to happen.

The Federal Reserve could not care less about the US population. The Fed was established for the purpose of protecting and aiding banks. Currently, the Fed, as if America were a Banana Republic which America appears to be becoming, is printing one thousand billion dollars per year in order to support the banks and to finance the federal deficit.

This is bad news for Americans, as it means that their fiat money is being created at a far greater rate than the demand for the dollar. The implication for our future is a drop in the dollar’s value. As there are no jobs, a drop in the dollar’s value means high inflation on top of unemployment and double the misery of the Great Depression.

As bad as this is, it is minor compared to the destruction of the planet’s environment. Online information shows that the Gulf of Mexico ecosystem is in crisis after the BP spill and use of Corexit, a dispersant used to hide, not clean up, the spilled oil. http://www.opednews.com/articles/Gulf-ecosystem-in-crisis-a-by-Dahr-Jamail-Corporation-BP_Ecosystems_Gulf-Oil-Spill-Disaster_Gulf-Shrimping-Industry-131020-15.html

The Fukushima catastrophe has hardly begun. Yet already the radioactive water pouring into the Pacific Ocean has made fish dangerous to eat unless a person is willing to accept a higher risk of cancer.

Fukushima has the potential of making Japan uninhabitable and of polluting the air, water, and soil of the US with radioactivity. Yet the crisis is seldom mentioned in the US media. In Japan the government just passed a law that could be used to imprison Japanese journalists who report truthfully on the dire situation.

Take the time to familiarize yourself with the online information about Fukushima.. According to the presstitute media, Americans face threats from Iran nd Syria and from whistleblowers such as Edward Snowden. The real threats are simply not in the news.

If you search Fukushima, you will find information that the presstitute media hides from you. See for example, http://www.globalresearch.ca/28-signs-that-the-west-coast-is-being-absolutely-fried-with-nuclear-radiation-from-fukushima/5355280

There are a number of other threats to the environment on which our lives depend. One is the effort to extract more productivity from the soil by use of GMOs. Monsanto has altered the genes of several crops so that the crops can be sprayed with RoundUp to eliminate weeds. The results have been to deplete the soil of nutrients, to destroy the micro-biology of the soil so that new plant diseases and funguses are activated, and to produce superweeds that require heavier doses of the glyphosate in RoundUp. The heavier dose of RoundUp worsens the aforementioned problems. US agricultural soil is losing its potency.

Now we come to chemtrails, branded another “conspiracy theory.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chemtrail_conspiracy_theory However, the US government’s efforts to geo-engineer weather as a military weapon and as a preventative of global warming appear to be real. The DARPA and HAARP programs are well known and are discussed publicly by scientists. See, for example, http://news.sciencemag.org/2009/03/darpa-explore-geoengineering Search Chemtrails, and you will find much information that is kept from you. See, for example, http://www.globalresearch.ca/chemtrails-a-planetary-catastrophe-created-by-geo-engineering/5355299 and http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org

Some describe chemtrails as a plot by the New World Order, the Rothchilds, the Bilderbergers, or the Masons, to wipe out the “useless eaters.” Given the amount of evil that exists in the world, these conspiracy theories might not be as farfetched as they sound.

However, I do not know that. What does seem to be possibly true is that the scientific experiments to modify and control weather are having adverse real world consequences. The claim that aluminum is being sprayed into the atmosphere and when it comes to earth is destroying the ability of soil to be productive might not be imaginary. Those concerned about chemtrails say that weather control experiments have deprived the western United States of rainfall, while sending the rain to the east where there have been hurricane level deluges and floods.

In the West, sparse rainfall and lightening storms without rain are resulting in forests drying out and burning down. Deforestation adversely affects the environment in many ways, including the process of photosynthesis by which trees convert carbon dioxide into oxygen. The massive loss of forests means more carbon dioxide and less oxygen. Watershed and species habitat are lost, and spreading aridity further depletes ground and surface water. If these results are the consequences of weather modification experiments, the experiments should be stopped.

In North Georgia where I spend some summers, during 2013 it rained for 60 consecutive days, not all day, but every day, and some days the rainfall was 12 inches–hurricane level–and roads were washed out. I received last summer 4 automated telephone warnings from local counties not to drive and not to attempt to drive through accumulations of water on the highways.

One consequence of the excess of water in the East is that this year there are no acorns in North Georgia. Zilch, zero, nada. Nothing. There is no food for the deer, the turkeys, the bear, the rodents. Starving deer will strip bark from the trees. Bears will be unable to hibernate or will be able only to partially hibernate, forced to seek food from garbage. Black bears are already invading homes in search of food.

Unusual drought in the West and unusual flood in the East could be coincidental or they could be consequences of weather modification experiments.

The US, along with most of the world, already had a water problem prior to possible disruptions of rainfall by geo-engineering. In his book, Elixir, Brian Fagan tells the story of humankind’s mostly unsuccessful struggle with water. Both groundwater and surface water are vanishing. The water needs of large cities, such as Los Angeles and Phoenix, and the irrigation farming that depends on the Ogallala aquifer are unsustainable. Fagan reminds us that “the world’s supply of freshwater is finite,” just like the rest of nature’s resources. Avoiding cataclysm requires long-range thinking, but humanity is focused on immediate needs. Long-range thinking is limited to finding another water source to deplete. Cities and agriculture have turned eyes to the Great Lakes.

Los Angeles exists because the city was able to steal water from hundreds of miles away. The city drained Owens Lake, leaving a huge salt flat in its place, drained the Owens Valley aquifer, and diverted the Owens River to LA via aqueduct. Farming and ranching in the Owens Valley collapsed. Today LA takes water from the Colorado River, which originates in Wyoming and Colorado, and from Lake Perris 440 miles away.

Water depletion is not just an American problem. Fagan reports that “underground aquifers in many places are shrinking so rapidly that NASA satellites are detecting changes in the earth’s gravity.”

If the government is experimenting with weather engineering, scientists are playing God when they have no idea of the consequences. It is a tendency of scientists to become absorbed by the ability to experiment and to ignore unintended consequences.

Readers have asked me to write about Fukushima and chemtrails because they trust me to tell them the truth. The problem is that I am not qualified to write about these matters with anything approaching the same confidence that I bring to economic, war and police state matters.

The only advice I can give is that when you hear the presstitute media smear a concern or explanation as “conspiracy theory,” have a closer look. The divergence between what is happening and what you are told is so vast that it pays to be suspicious, cynical even, of what “your” government and “your” presstitute media tell you. The chances are high that it is a lie.

About Dr. Paul Craig Roberts

Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy and associate editor of the Wall Street Journal. He was columnist for Business Week, Scripps Howard News Service, and Creators Syndicate. He has had many university appointments. His internet columns have attracted a worldwide following. His latest book, The Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism and Economic Dissolution of the West is now available.

The post Ignored Reality Is Going To Wipe Out the Human Race — Paul Craig Roberts appeared first on PaulCraigRoberts.org.

  • Lens

    The author errs in giving the definition of entitlements. To many wrong thinking individuals and groups (IMHO) social security that we and our employers have paid are not “entitlements”. They are supposed to be a (albeit perverted) social contract. One that we tax payers are on the losing end of.

  • Lens

    However the article is informed, thoughtful and pretty much on the money as far as this reader can tell. I only quibbled with the syntax.

  • Neil

    Back in the 70’s when offshoring wasn’t prevalent as it is today, I remember many members of Congress had stakes and invested interests in companies setting up overseas. I thought back then that was un-American as it is now. Talk about hypocrites!

    • Brian

      I overheard a couple guys that make bicycle frames for a living recently. They were talking about moving their promotional efforts to China rather than the United States because there is a huge market for custom made American goods.

      I found it rather alarming that these guys were saying that there isn’t much of a market for higher priced bike frames in America anymore because nobody can afford them, but they’re selling like hot cakes in China. I pointed out the long term implications of this and they just laughed at me. “We’ll be rich, so who cares!”

      About sums up our current predicament. Nevermind that the society around you is crumbling and in absolute dire straits, the only thing that matters is how many zeros your bank account has!

  • George Collins

    Like ignoring the reality that humanity is a species that consists of three distinct races?

  • Paul Rev

    Dear Reader,

    Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky conclusion of a religious cult, but rather the result of diligent analysis sourced by hard data and the scientists who study global “Peak Oil” and related geo-political events.

    So who are these nay-sayers who claim the sky is falling? Conspiracy fanatics? Apocalypse Bible prophesy readers? To the contrary, they are some of the most respected, highest paid geologists and experts in the world. And this is what’s so scary.

    The situation is so dire that even George W. Bush’s Energy Adviser, Matthew Simmons, has acknowledged that “The situation is desperate. This is the world’s biggest serious question.”

    According to Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham, “America faces a major energy supply crisis over the next two decades. The failure to meet this challenge will threaten our nation’s economic prosperity, compromise our national security, and literally alter the way we lead our lives.”

    If you are like 99% of the people reading this letter, you have never heard of the term “Peak Oil.” I had not heard the term until a few months ago. Since learning about Peak Oil, I have had my world view, and basic assumptions about my own individual future turned completely upside down.

    A little about myself: A few months ago, I was a 25 year old law school graduate who found out he had just passed the California Bar Exam. I was excited about a potentially long and prosperous career in the legal profession, getting married, having kids, contributing to my community, and living the “American Dream.”

    Peak Oil has caused me to seriously question how realistic this vision of my life is.

    Whether you’re 25 or 75, an attorney or an auto mechanic, what you are about to read will shake the foundations of your life.

    Below you find a brief explanation of Peak Oil, the ramifications, and what we can do about it. For the sake of simplicity, I have designed the following explanation for somebody unfamiliar with Peak Oil. If you would like more in depth explanations with graphs, charts, and the like, please consult the extensive interviews, articles and sites I have linked to 170 Academic Peer Reviewed Scientific References. What is “Peak Oil”?

    All oil production follows a bell curve, whether in an individual field or on the planet as a whole. On the upslope of the curve production costs are significantly lower than on the downslope when extra effort (expense) is required to extract oil from reservoirs that are emptying out.

    Put simply: oil is abundant and cheap on the upslope, scarce and expensive on the downslope.

    For the past 150 years, we have been moving up the upslope of the global oil production curve. “Peak Oil” is the industry term for the top of the curve. It’s often referred to as “Hubbert’s Peak” a reference to King Hubbert, the geologist who discovered that oil production follows a bell curve.

    Once we pass the peak, we will go down the very steep downslope. The further we go down the slope, the more it costs to produce oil, and its cousin, natural gas.

    In practical terms, this means that if 2015 was the year of Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2030 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population in 2030 will be both much larger (approximately twice as big) and much more industrialized than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace the worldwide production of oil by a significant margin.

    The more demand for oil exceeds production of oil, the higher the price goes.

    Ultimately, the question is not “When will we run out of oil?” but rather, “When will we run out of cheap oil?”

    When will Peak Oil occur?

    The most wildly optimistic estimates indicate 2020 will be the year in which worldwide oil production peaks. Generally, these estimates come from the government.

    A more realistic estimate is between the years of 2014-2018. Unfortunately, we won’t know that we hit the peak until 3-4 years after we actually hit it. Even on the upslope of the curve, oil production varies a bit from year to year.

    The energy industry has quietly acknowledged the seriousness of the situation. For instance, the president of Exxon Mobil Exploration Company, Jon Thompson, recently stated:

    By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today. In addition, the cost associated with providing this additional oil and gas is expected to be considerably more than what industry is now spending.

    Equally daunting is the fact that many of the most promising prospects are far from major markets — some in regions that lack even basic infrastructure. Others are in extreme climates, such as the Arctic, that present extraordinary technical challenges.

    If Mr. Thompson is that frank in an article posted on the Exxon Mobil webpage, you have to wonder what he says behind closed days when he talks about oil depletion. Even the Saudis are aware of the situation. They have a saying that goes, “My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane. His son will ride a camel.”

    That sounds pretty bad, but if gas prices get too high, I’ll just carpool or take public transportation more. Why should I be concerned?

    Almost every current human endeavor from transportation, to manufacturing, to electricity to plastics, and especially food and water production is inextricably intertwined with oil and natural gas supplies.

    Food Production and Oil:

    Commercial food production is oil powered. Most pesticides are petroleum (oil) based, and all commercial fertilizers are ammonia based. Ammonia is produced from natural gas.

    Oil based agriculture is primarily responsible for the world’s population exploding from 1 billion at the middle of the 19th century to 6.3 billion at the turn of the 21st.

    Oil allowed for farming implements such as tractors, food storage systems such as refrigerators, and food transport systems such as trucks.

    As oil production went up, so did food production. As food production went up, so did the population. As the population went up, the demand for food went up, which increased the demand for oil.

    Within a few years of Peak Oil occurring, the price of food will skyrocket because of the cost of fertilizer will soar. The cost of storing (electricity) and transporting (gasoline) the food that is produced will also soar.

    Water Supply and Oil:

    Inexpensive oil is also needed to construct and maintain the massive infrastructure that delivers our fresh water.

    Healthcare and Oil:

    Oil is largely responsible for the advances in medicine that have been made in the last 150 years. Oil allowed for the mass production of pharmaceutical drugs, and the development of health care infrastructure such as hospitals, ambulances, roads, etc . . .

    Everything Else and Oil:

    Oil is required for a lot more than just food, water, medicine, and transportation. It is also required for nearly every consumer item, sewage disposal, garbage disposal, street/park maintenance, hospitals & health systems, police, fire services, and national defense.

    Thus, the aftermath of Peak Oil will extend far beyond how much you will pay for gas. Simply stated, you can expect: war, starvation, economic collapse, possibly even the extinction of Homo sapiens.

    This is known as the post-oil “die-off”. The term “die-off” captures perfectly the nightmare that is at our doorstep.

    What do you mean by “die-off”?

    Exactly what it sounds like. It is estimated that the world’s population will contract to 500 million during the Oil Crash. (current world population: 6 billion)

    Are you serious? That’s over 90% of our current population. How could that many people perish? Where does that estimate come from?

    That estimate comes from biologists who have studied what happens to every species when it exceeds the carrying capacity of its environment in one life giving aspect or another.

    For instance, bacteria in a petri dish will grow exponentially until they run out of resources, at which point their population will crash. Only one generation prior to the crash, the bacteria will have used up half the resources available to them. To the bacteria, there will be no hint of a problem until they starve to death.

    While comparing humans to bacteria in a petri dish is a bit uncomfortable, the similarities are numerous:

    The first commercial oil well was drilled in 1859. At that time, the world’s population was about 1 billion. Less than 150 years later, our population has exploded to 6.3 billion. In that time, we have used up half the world’s recoverable oil. Of the half that’s left, most will be very expensive to extract . If the experts are correct, we are less than one generation away from a crash. Yet to most of us, there appears to be no hint of a problem.

    We need not look solely to the petri dish to predict what will happen to the planet. We can look to our own history.

    Take the case of the famous Irish potato famine. For well over a century, year after steady year, the British encouraged and the Irish developed a near-total dependency upon a single dietary mainstay, the potato, and the population of the island grew from 2 million people to more than 8 million.

    Then suddenly in 1845, a parasitic fungus turned the potatoes into sticky, inedible, mucous globs. Within a generation the country was devastated, more than half the population died or emigrated, and those who remained were reduced to a poverty that diminished only a century later.

    In some ways, planet Earth’s future is likely to be worse than Ireland’s past. The severity of the potato famine was offset by the fact that many of the Irish could emigrate to the land of plenty: America. This allowed those who remained to make the most of what little resources were left.

    Unlike the Irish, we have nowhere else to go. But we do have lots of WMD’s to toss at each other.

    Oh, by the way: you want to know what the bacteria do as their population crashes?

    They eat each other.

    I still can’t imagine that number of deaths. It’s just too ghastly to imagine. Only 10% of us are going to make it? How can that possibly be?

    I know how you feel. This is all very difficult to handle, both emotionally and intellectually. As former UK environmental minister Michael Meacher recently wrote, “It’s hard to envisage the effects of a radically reduced oil supply on a modern economy or society. The implications are mindblowing.”

    Perhaps the following explanation, while a bit over simplified, will help to illustrate the situation:

    The population in the year 2030 is projected to be roughly 10 billion. The amount of oil production we will have will be the equivalent to 1980. The population in 1980 was roughly 4 billion.

    Since oil production essentially equals food production, this means that we will have 10 billion people on the planet but only enough food for 4 billion or less, since even in 1980 we were unable to feed everybody.

    Now think about it this way: say you, me, and 8 other people were locked in a room, with only enough food for 4 of us. At least 6 of us will die from starvation. Another one or two will likely die as we all fight each other for what little food we have.

    That’s what will happen if we are fighting with just our fists. Give each of us weapons, and you can imagine what that room will look like when were done with each other.

    Where are you getting this information from? Who else is talking about Peak Oil? What type of backgrounds do they have?

    When you’re done reading through this site, take a look at this page. It has links to over 170 Academic Peer Reviewed Scientific References about Peak Oil, all are from highly reputable sources. You will find, much to your dismay as well as my own, that everything on this site is supported by facts.

    For the sake of brevity, here is what just two highly credible individuals have to say about Peak Oil:

    Dr. David Goodstein, Professor of Physics and Vice Provost of Cal Tech University:

    In his just-released book, Out of Gas: The End of Oil, Dr. Goodstein argues forcefully that the worldwide production of oil will peak soon, possibly within this decade. That will be followed by declining availability of fossil fuels that could plunge the world into global conflicts as nations struggle to capture their piece of a shrinking pie.

    In a recent article on ABC, Dr. Goodstein had this to say about Peak Oil:

    Worst case: After Hubbert’s peak, all efforts to produce, distribute, and consume alternative fuels fast enough to fill the gap between falling supplies and rising demand fail. Runaway inflation and worldwide depression leave many billions of people with no alternative but to burn coal in vast quantities for warmth, cooking, and primitive industry. The change in the greenhouse effect that results eventually tips Earth’s climate into a new state hostile to life. End of story.

    You will find many news articles on the internet claiming peak oil has been debunked. These articles are written by journalists, who work for advertisers, they are not scientists and there articles are not peer reviewed and not considered a valid academic source. And if they were so confident they should submit their evidence write it down on paper, get it peer reviewed and go collect their Nobel prize. The media also likes to refer to peak oil as a “theory”. Peak oil is not a theory at all peak oil is a number it’s the maximum level global oil production reaches period .Believing the government or the oil and gas industry will save you from peak oil. Is about as wise as believing the tobacco industry will save you from smoking.

    How will things progress once production peaks?

    If you’d like to use history as a guide, I feel the following timeline is a reasonable approximation of what to expect in developed nations such as the United States:

    1-5 years post-peak: Major recession comparable to those experienced during the artificially created oil shortages of the 1970’s. (Already started)

    5-15 years post-peak: Recession worsens into a second Great Depression.

    15-25 years post-peak: Society begins to collapse. Conditions in the United States begin to resemble those in the modern day former U.S.S.R.

    25-50 years post-peak: Societal collapse worsens. Conditions in the United States begin to resemble those in modern day Iraq: electrical grid collapse, clean water shortages, super high unemployment, military police state. Many localities begin to resemble modern day third world countries such as Liberia.

    50-100 years post-peak: Society begins to stabilize, albeit in a form drastically different than anything most of us have imagined.