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Saturday, November 1st, 2008 星期六， 2008年11月1日

By Stephen Lendman - RINF |由斯蒂芬Lendman -R INF|

From too much of a good thing.從太多的一件好事。 From the 1980s and 1990s excesses.從80年代和90年代的暴行。 From the longest ever US bull market.從美國有史以來最長的牛市。 Heavily manipulated to keep it levitating.重操縱保持磁懸浮。 From August 1982 to January 2000.從1982年8月至2000年1月。 An illusory reprieve from October 2002 to October 2007.虛幻死緩2002年10月至2007年10月。 Fluctuations aside, all lost in the past 12 months.波動外，所有損失在過去12個月。 The wages of sin are now due, and payment is being painfully extracted.工資的罪孽現在由於和支付正在痛苦地提取。 From all nations globally.從全球所有國家。 Affecting ordinary people the most who had nothing to do with creating booms and busts.影響到普通百姓誰最沒有什麼關係創造繁榮和衰退。 They got little on the upside but are paying dearly for the down.他們有沒有上檔，但付出代價的下降。

Even “free-market” champions are unnerved.即使是“自由市場”冠軍的信心。 Arthur Laffer for one in his October 27 Wall Street Journal op-ed headlined: “The Age of Prosperity Is Over.” He states that “This administration and Congress will be remembered like Herbert Hoover,” but not for the right reasons.阿瑟拉弗一個在他10月27日華爾街日報的專欄版的標題： “時代的繁榮已經結束。 ”他說， “這個政府和國會將記住胡佛一樣， ”但沒有合適理由。 He continued: “what this administration and Congress have done will be viewed in much the same light as what Herbert Hoover did in the years 1929 through 1932.他繼續說： “這是政府和國會所做的將被視為在同樣輕如胡佛什麼像在1929年年內通過1932年。 Whenever people make decisions when they are panicked, the consequences are rarely pretty.每當人們作出決定時，他們感到恐慌，其後果是相當罕見。 We are now witnessing the end of prosperity.”我們現在看到結束的繁榮。 “

Readers will remember Laffer from the Reagan era.讀者會記得拉弗從裡根時代。 The “supply side trickle down” guru. “供應方涓滴”教主。 More popularly called “Reaganomics.” GHW Bush’s “voodoo economics.” The faux theory that tax cuts for the rich grow the economy and benefit everyone.更多民選所謂的“裡根” 。 GHW布什的“巫術經濟學。 ”學說的人造的減稅富人的經濟增長和所有人受益。 By encouraging well-off recipients to earn more money.通過鼓勵小康受助人掙更多的錢。 For more tax revenue.欲了解更多的稅收。 For the greater good of everyone.為了更大利益，每個人。

What Reagan’s budget director, David Stockman, called a “Trojan Horse.” To con Congress into accepting “Republican orthodoxy (and pave the way for) the greed level, the level of opportunism, (to get) out of control.” From tax cuts for the rich.什麼裡根的預算辦公室主任，大衛斯托克曼，被稱為“特洛伊木馬” 。為了控制國會接受“共和黨正統（和鋪平道路）的貪婪一級，一級的機會主義， （得到）失去了控制。 ”從減稅的富人。 Loopholes for special interests.漏洞的特殊利益。 Tax increases on low and middle-income households.稅收的增加低收入和中等收入家庭。 Taking from the many for the few.考慮從許多的很少。 What Laffer and others championed and still do.什麼拉弗和其他擁護，卻仍然。 Along with believing markets work best so let them.相信隨著市場的最好的工作，以便讓他們。 Government is the problem, not the solution.政府是問題，而不是解決問題的方法。

The results weren’t encouraging.結果並不令人鼓舞。 Macroeconomic growth for sure until it ended.宏觀經濟增長肯定的，直到結束。 The rich got much richer.富了更豐富。 The top 1%.頂端1 ％ 。 Another 9% to some extent.另一個9 ％ ，在一定程度上。 Not the rest, however.沒有休息，但是。 Their well-being either stagnated or declined and now are in free-fall.他們的福祉要么停滯或下降，現在是在自由降落。 Their savings and futures erased by rampant deleveraging.他們的儲蓄和期貨抹去猖獗deleveraging 。 Market manipulation.市場操控的能力。 Massive fraud.大規模的欺詐行為。 Leaving millions of households in trouble.使數以百萬計的家庭陷入困境。 With the worst likely yet to come.隨著最壞的可能尚未到來。 All Laffer can do is resurrect Hoover.拉弗所有能做的就是復活胡佛。 The real villains are present and among us.真正的惡棍是當前和在我們中間。 Some active.有些活躍。 Others not.其他沒有。 Their venom corrosive and harmful.它們的毒液腐蝕性和有害的。 Hurting economies and people everywhere.傷害經濟和世界各地人民。

From boom now bust.從現在繁榮蕭條。 Rampant speculation and fraud.猖獗的投機和欺詐行為。 In most asset classes.在大多數資產類別。 Especially equities, housing, commercial real estate, commodities, currencies, and huge leveraged debt for levitation.特別是股票，房地產，商業房地產，商品，貨幣，和巨大的槓桿債務磁懸浮。

As a consequence, world economies are reeling and leaders scrambling to contain them.因此，世界經濟的繅絲和領導人紛紛包含這些內容。 With the most ambitious/outrageous rescue plans ever.隨著最雄心勃勃的/無恥救援計劃以往。 Likely mindful, or they should be, that all their grand schemes can’t undue nearly three decades of excess.可能考慮到，或者他們應該是所有宏偉計劃，他們不能過分近30年的過剩。 The most extreme financial sins.最極端的財政罪孽。 The age of levitation is over.年齡磁懸浮已經結束。 As financial expert and investor safety advocate Martin Weiss puts it:作為金融專家和投資者的安全魏斯主張馬丁所說：

Here’s the “inescapable reality: Now that the global debt bubble has burst, all the world’s leaders and all their radical new measures can’t” contain, let alone undue, all the damage.這是“不可避免的現實：現在，全球債務泡沫已經破裂，世界上所有的領導人和所有其激進的新措施，不能”載，更不用說不當，所有的損失。 They can’t “turn back the clock or reverse decades” of excess and greed.他們不能“時鐘倒轉或扭轉幾十年來”多餘的和貪婪。 “They cannot repeal the law of gravity or prevent investors from selling. “他們不能廢止的法律重力或阻止投資者拋售。 Even as they sweep piles of bad debts under the carpet with bailouts and buyouts, mountains of new debts will go bad — another flood of mortgages that can’t be paid, a new raft of credit cards falling behind, an avalanche of companies defaulting on their bonds.”即使因為他們橫掃成堆的壞帳根據地毯的救助和收購，堆積如山的新債務將變壞-另一個洪水的抵押貸款，不能支付，一個新的一系列的信用卡落在後面，雪崩的公司拖欠他們的債券。 “

No matter how many billions they throw at the problem, “trillions more in wealth will be wiped out in market declines.不管有多少，他們扔幾十億的問題， “十萬億更多的財富將被消滅在市場下跌。 For a while longer, our leaders may try to play their last cards in a herculean effort to stop the fall.” They may commit good money to save bad.對於一段時間，我們的領導人可能會嘗試發揮其最後卡在一項艱鉅的努力，停止下降。 “他們可能會好錢拯救壞。 “Inject more money into bankrupt banks, broken brokerage firms, endangered insurers and any company they deem essential to the economy.” “注入更多的錢投入銀行破產，破碎的經紀公司，保險公司和瀕危任何公司他們認為必要的經濟。 ”

It won’t work.它將無法工作。 “It will be a blood transfusion with a failing heartbeat.” Soon enough they’d better learn that “it’s impossible to save the entire world.” The right choice is to “accept the (inevitable) decline, manage it proactively,” and avoid the perilous alternative. “這將是一個輸血與一個失敗的心跳。 ”很快他們會更好地了解到， “這是不可能的，以拯救整個世界。 ”選擇的權利是“接受（不可避免）下降，主動管理， “和避免危險的辦法。 An “open floodgate (of) climatic selling.一種“開放的閘門（中）氣候出售。 A crash producing “the final phase of the decline.” Erasing “anywhere from 50% to 90% of (stocks, corporate bonds, real estate, foreign currencies and commodities valuations) in a matter of months or even weeks.”當機生產“的最後階段下降。 ”抹掉“任何從50 ％至90 ％ （股票，公司債券，房地產，外幣及商品價格）在幾個月甚至幾個星期。 ”

“As many as one-fourth (of S&P 500 companies) could go bankrupt.” The entire index “flip(ing) from the black to the red.” Around 20% of US workers could lose their jobs. “多達四分之一（標準普爾500家公司）可能會破產。 ”整個指數“倒裝（法）由黑色的紅色。 ”大約20 ％的美國工人失去工作。 The standard of living of American households seriously harmed.生活水平的美國家庭造成嚴重的損害。 The potential for big trouble ahead is real and growing.潛在的大麻煩是真正的未來和發展。 The effect on world economies serious and spreading.影響世界經濟嚴重和蔓延。

Weiss called the Fed’s latest rate cut a “DUD,” and said the big news was “the Fed’s latest cockamamie effort to save the world.” With $120 billion to Brazil, South Korea, Singapore and Mexico ($30 billion each).魏斯呼籲美聯儲的最新降息是“啞彈” ，並說，大新聞是“美聯儲的最新cockamamie努力拯救世界。 ”有了1200億美元，巴西，韓國，新加坡和墨西哥（ 300億美元，每） 。 This is besides committed IMF funds for Hungary ($25.5 billion), Ukraine ($16.5 billion), and Iceland ($2.5 billion) and a new $100 billion Short-Term Liquidity Facility offering short-term loans.這是國際貨幣基金組織承諾除了資金匈牙利（ 255億美元） ，烏克蘭（ 165億美元） ，冰島（ 25億美元）和一個新的1000億美元的短期流動資金融資提供短期貸款。

It’s an illusion to think Bernanke can play “Santa Claus, the Pied Piper and the Fairy Godmother all in one act.” In fact, he’s “desperate” and resorting to “the most radical measures of all time.這是一個錯覺認為伯南克可以發揮“聖誕老人，在斑駁的胡椒和仙女教母在同一個行為。 ”事實上，他的“絕望”和訴諸“最激進的措施的所有時間。 Playing his last cards.” Knowing that if he fails, “it’s game over.他最後一次演奏卡。 “知道，如果他失敗了， ”這是比賽結束了。 Taking huge risks — that his rescue-the-whole-world schemes will backfire in the form of falling confidence in the US government as a whole.” Besides there’s no way make banks lend.考慮巨大的風險-他救援的，整個世界的計劃將適得其反的形式下降的信心，美國政府作為一個整體。 “除了沒有辦法使銀行貸款的情況。 Consumers borrow.消費者借貸。 Continue to spend.繼續花費。 Have the means to do it.有辦法做到這一點。 Reverse decades of excess or repeal the law of gravity to keep markets levitating.反向幾十年的過剩或廢除法律的嚴重性，以保持市場的磁懸浮。

On October 28, more evidence of what he’s up against from the Washington Post . 10月28日，更多的證據是，他反對從華盛頓郵報 。 In an article headlined: “Downturn Clobbers Public Pension Funds.” According to staff writer Peter Whoriskey, they’re being ravaged across the country, “with many state and local governments (losing) more than 20% of their retirements pools.” Even worse because they were inadequately funded before the crisis, according to the Government Accountability Office.在一篇標題為： “逆轉Clobbers公共養老基金。 ”根據工作人員的作家彼得Whoriskey ，他們被蹂躪的全國各地， “許多州和地方政府（失去）的20 ％以上的退休游泳池。 ”即使更糟，因為他們資金不足的危機之前，根據政府問責局。 And the 20% figure is conservative given the severity of the October selloff.和20 ％的數字是保守的給予嚴重的10月份大跌。

According to Chicago-based Northern Trust Investment Risk and Analytical Services’ William Frieske, “We expect this (will) be the worst year we’ve seen since we’ve been tracking the funds.” They service 27 million people.據總部設在芝加哥的北方信託公司投資風險和分析服務'威廉Frieske ， “我們期望，這次（會）是最嚴重的一年裡，我們已經看到，因為我們一直跟踪的資金。 ”他們服務的2700萬人。 Supported by taxpayer money, investment returns and employee contributions.支持納稅人的錢，投資回報和員工的捐款。 The bear market “played havoc on” actuarial calculations to ensure enough is available for future retirees.熊市“起到破壞”精算計算，以確保足夠的可用於未來的退休人員。 Because about 60% of fund assets are in common stocks, according to the National Association of State Retirement Administrators.由於大約60 ％的基金資產是在普通股，根據該協會的國家退休管理員。

What’s ahead depends on economic prospects.什麼是未來取決於經濟前景。 Whether markets will continue to contract.無論是市場將繼續合同。 How deep and for how long.如何深，時間有多長。 When recovery will occur.當將出現復甦。 Will it be sustainable, and is there enough time to make up the shortfall for retirees expecting their pensions.它會不會是可持續的，是有足夠的時間來彌補缺口預計為離退休人員的養老金。 After the Dow bottomed in 1932, it took a generation to recoup losses.後觸底反彈道指在1932年，經過一代人的時間才能挽回損失。 What investors hope won’t repeat today.什麼投資者希望不會重複今天。

Much will given the raft of bad news:在很大程度上將給予一系列的壞消息：

– spreading layoffs across the country; on October 29, the New York Times reporting their painful impact in New York; spreading “well beyond Wall Street;” expected to “drive up the city’s unemployment rate and strain the state’s unemployment insurance fund;” hitting everywhere, including service firms; professional ones — law firms, banks, other financial services, publishers, tourism, besides tens of thousands on Wall Street; -傳播裁員全國各地;於1 0月2 9日， 紐約時報匯報其痛苦的影響在紐約舉行;散佈“遠遠超出華爾街” ;預計“推動城市的失業率和應變該州的失業保險基金“ ;觸及全球各地，包括服務公司;專業的-律師事務所，銀行，其他金融服務，出版商，旅遊，除了數以萬計的華爾街;

– official unemployment heading for the high single digits; the true number far higher and growing; real pain is being felt as a result; -官方失業率標題為高個位數;的真實數量遠遠高於和日益增長的;真正的痛苦是覺得作為一個結果;

– the worst housing crisis since the 1930s; continued record home price declines, according to the S&P Case-Shiller Index; 16.6% in its latest (20 major metropolitan areas) reading; compounded by a glut of unsold homes; -最嚴重的住房危機自1 930年;繼續紀錄房價下跌，根據標準普爾C ase- S hiller指數; 1 6.6％ ，在其最新的（ 2 0個主要大都市地區）閱讀;加劇了供過於求的待售房屋;

– in an October 28 news release, the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) reported grim findings; a comparison of ownership vs. rental costs “points to negative equity accruals in many markets over the next 4 years” even as prices keep falling; many homeowners won’t ever accrue equity with many going under water; in the most inflated markets, homeownership costs outpace rents by as much as 300% placing enormous stress on household income, especially for middle and lower-income families; -在1 0月2 8日新聞發布會上，中心的經濟和政策研究中心（ C EPR）報告嚴峻的結果;比較所有權與租賃費用“點，負資產的權責發生制在很多市場，在未來4年” ，即使價格持續下降許多業主永遠不會產生公平與許多去水;在最膨脹的市場，住房成本超過租金高達300 ％ ，把巨大的壓力家庭收入，特別是中等和低收入家庭;

– declining production; autos especially hard hit; Chrysler sacking 25% of its salaried force; GM suspending employee benefits; all three auto makers closing or idling plants; steel affected as a result; 17 of the nation’s 29 blast furnaces shut down; other industries also under stress; -產量下降;汽車尤其是沉重的打擊;克萊斯勒公司解僱2 5％的工薪力;通用汽車公司暫停員工福利;所有三個汽車製造商關閉或停產的植物;鋼鐵因而受影響， 1 7個國家的2 9高爐關閉;其他行業也正在緊張;

– economists lowering their GDP forecasts; many saying we’re well into recession; fourth quarter results will be the worst since the severe 1981-82 one, and 2009 also looks even bleaker; third quarter ones out show an annualized .3% decline; most disturbing a minus 3.1% PCE (personal consumption expenditure) reading, the first drop since 1991; private investment also shrunk 1.9%; -經濟學家降低其國內生產總值的預測;許多說我們正在進入衰退;第四季度業績將是最糟糕的，因為一個嚴重的1 981-82年和2 009年甚至還期待暗淡;第三季度的表現出了年均0 .3％的跌幅;最令人不安的負3.1 ％ ，個人消費支出（個人消費支出）讀的首次下降自1991年以來，私人投資也下降了1.9 ％ ;

– against this backdrop, little relief is being proposed; where it’s most needed; so beleaguered homeowners can keep their properties; to struggling households to stimulate demand; not for toxic assets or to fund giant bank acquisitions; what Alan Nasser reported in his article titled “The Bailout Lie Exposed;” that big banks won’t lend out their windfall; that New York Times economics reporter Joe Nocera confirmed from an employee-only recording of a JP Morgan Chase conference he secured; that the bank will use bailout funds for acquisitions; leveraged buyouts; with public money; for assets at fire sale prices; courtesy of US taxpayers; for further consolidation; a multi-generational tradition; to crush competition and grow monopolies; with both presidential candidates on board; assuring reduced social spending and no return to enlightened New Deal policies when they’re most needed. -在這一背景下，幾乎沒有救濟正在擬議;在它最需要的，因此處於困境房主可以保持其財產;掙扎的家庭，以刺激需求;不是有毒的資產或基金巨頭銀行收購;什麼納賽爾阿蘭在他的報告文章題為“紓困李暴露; ”的大銀行不會借給他們的橫財;的紐約時報記者喬經濟學諾西拉證實一個員工只記錄了JP摩根大通招待會擔保; ，該銀行將利用救助資金用於收購;槓桿收購;與公共資金;的資產在火災銷售價格;禮貌美國納稅人;進一步鞏固;一個多代的傳統;粉碎的競爭和發展的壟斷;與兩名總統候選人在船上;確保減少社會支出和沒有返回新政開明的政策時，他們最需要的。

In Times of Crisis, Bring Out the Heavy Artillery 在發生危機的時候，帶出了重型火砲

It’sa common tactic and the one used in 1929.這是一個共同的策略和一個用於在1929年。 Following Black Thursday (October 24), Black Monday (October 28) and Black Tuesday (October 29).繼黑色星期四（ 10月24日） ，黑色星期一（ 10月28日）和黑色星期二（ 10月29日） 。 Popularly called the Great Crash of 1929.民選稱為大崩盤的1929年。 After which the publication Variety headlined: “Wall Street Lays an Egg.” A much larger one than at first realized but serious enough for the establishment to get John D. Rockefeller to state (on Black Tuesday):之後，出版品種的標題： “華爾街層的蛋。 ”更大的一個比第一次實現了，但嚴重程度足以建立得到約翰D洛克菲勒國家（關於黑色星期二） ：

“Believing that fundamental conditions of the country are sound and that there is nothing in the business situation to warrant the destruction of values that has taken place on the exchanges during the past week, my son and I have for some days been purchasing sound common stocks.” Fast forward to the present. “相信這一基本國情是健全的，並沒有任何的經營狀況，值得破壞的價值觀念已經發生的交流在過去的一周，我的兒子，我已經幾天了購買健全普通股。 “快速前進到現在。 History is again repeating.歷史再次重演。 At another crisis time.在另一場危機的時間。 No garden variety one.沒有花園品種之一。 The most serious since the 1930s.最嚴重的20世紀30年代以來。 With investor and public confidence severely shaken.隨著投資者和公眾的信心嚴重動搖。 Enough for a repeat of Rockefeller’s bravado.足夠的重複洛克菲勒的虛張聲勢。

Dire enough to get Warren Buffett to do what he rarely if ever does.可怕足以讓巴菲特做他很少，如果以往任何時候都沒有。 Pen an op-ed.勒龐的論壇版。 On October 16 in the New York Times . 10月16日在紐約時報。 To sound like John D. and say in spite of gloom and doom, he’s “buying American stocks.” To affirm his faith in “the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies.” To predict “most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.” At age 78, he may not be around to confront critics if he’s wrong.聽起來像約翰說，儘管沮喪和悲觀，他的“購買美國股票。 ”申明自己的信仰在“長期繁榮國家的許多健全的企業。 ”預測“最重要公司將制定新的利潤記錄的5年， 10年和20年內從現在開始。 “在78歲，他可能無法面對周圍的批評，如果他的錯。

On October 27, the Wall Street Journal took aim at him. 10月27日，華爾街日報瞄準他。 A very uncharacteristic gesture toward a large (and successful) investor.一個非常不尋常的姿態走向大（和成功）的投資者。 Let alone the most famous individual one and one of the richest.更不用說最有名的個別人，一個最富有的。 “Even the Oracle Didn’t Time It Perfectly” headlined the Journal . “即使是甲骨文沒有時間完全” 雜誌的標題。 His class A Berkshire Hathaway shares have taken a hit like most others year to date, but that’sa side issue for the Journal .他的A級伯克希爾哈撒韋公司的股票已經採取了打擊最喜歡別人今年迄今為止，但是這是一個枝節問題的雜誌 。

It’s troubled because “the Oracle of Omaha failed to see how bad the market was going to get.” And he’s even exposed to credit default swaps (CDSs).它的困擾，因為“甲骨文的奧馬哈沒有看到有多糟糕的市場要得到。 ”他甚至暴露於信用違約互換（ CDSs ） 。 Increased his position to $8.8 billion from mid-2006-mid-2008.增加了他的立場，以88億美元從2006年年中， 2008年年中。 Already took a $490 million loss in the first quarter.已經採取了4.9億美元的損失在第一季度。 Another $136 million in the second, and likely much more unreported so far for the third and beyond.另1.36億美元在第二，而且可能更迄今未為第三及以後。

These positions show he “was relatively comfortable about the prospects for US corporations and global stocks at a time when (other observers) were predicting a bust.” Maybe it’s “time for the Oracle to get a new crystal ball.”這表明他的立場“相對舒適的前景，美國跨國公司和全球股市的時候（其他觀察員）預測的半身像。 ”也許是“時間的甲骨文公司獲得一個新的水晶球。 ”

Warnings from Abroad 從國外發出的警告

Overseas comments differ greatly from more optimistic ones here.海外評論大不相同從更樂觀的這裡。 Germany’s finance minister, Peer Steinbruck, for example.德國財政部長施同儕，例如。 On October 26, the Financial Times reported his fears about global financial markets collapsing. 10月26日， 金融時報報導他擔心全球金融市場的崩潰。 At least through 2009.至少到2009年。 He said: “The danger of a collapse is far from over.他說： “危險的崩潰還遠遠沒有結束。 Any attempt to give the all clear would be wrong.”任何企圖讓所有明確的將是錯誤的。 “

His government committed $635 billion to rescue troubled banks.他的政府致力於六千三百五十○點零零零億美元救援陷入困境的銀行。 A “financial market stabilization fund.” With most of it in credit guarantees and a smaller portion to recapitalize banks and buy toxic assets.一個“金融市場的穩定基金。 ”由於大多數是在信貸擔保和一個小部分，以資本銀行和購買有毒的資產。 But unlike the Paulson plan, Germany won’t compel banks to take it and many so far haven’t.但不同的是保爾森的計劃，德國將不會迫使銀行採取它和許多迄今尚未。 For fear investors will punish them for admitting they’re in trouble and also over concerns that conditions imposed are too stringent.由於擔心投資者會懲罰他們的承認，他們就有麻煩，也擔心規定的條件太苛刻。 Steinbruck is working through this and said banks eschewing state aid are “irresponsible.”施正通過這一點，並表示，避免國有銀行的援助是“不負責任的” 。

Leaders in Europe fear the financial crisis will tip the continent into serious recession.在歐洲領導人擔心金融危機將冰山大陸陷入嚴重衰退。 And cause a currency meltdown in the East.並導致貨幣危機的地區。 Across former Soviet bloc nations.整個前蘇聯集團國家。 Testing currency pegs “on the fringes of Europe’s monetary union in a traumatic upheaval” reminiscent of the 1992 Exchange Rate Mechanism collapse.測試貨幣掛鉤“的邊緣歐洲貨幣聯盟在動盪的創傷”想起1992年匯率機制崩潰。 Bank of New York strategist Neil Mellor called it “the biggest currency crisis the world has ever seen.”紐約銀行的策略師Neil Mellor稱為“最大的貨幣危機的世界從未見過。 ”

On October 26, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote about it in the UK Telegraph . 10月26日，安布羅斯埃文斯普里查德寫它在英國的電報 。 He cites what experts fear.他引用專家們擔心什麼。 A “chain reaction within the eurozone itself.” A surge in capital flight from Austria.一個“鍊式反應歐元區內的本身。 ”一股資本外逃，分別來自奧地利。 The latest Bank of International Settlements data aren’t encouraging.最新的國際清算銀行的數據並不令人鼓舞。 They show Western European banks in trouble.它們顯示西歐銀行的麻煩。 With the most exposure “to the emerging market bubble, now bursting with spectacular effect.”最暴露“在新興市場的泡沫，現在與壯觀的爆破效果。 ”

The amount involved is huge.涉及的金額是巨大的。 Around three-fourths of “the total $4.7 trillion in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia.” Much greater than America’s subprime lending.大約四分之三的“總四萬七千點零零零億美元跨境銀行貸款到東歐，拉丁美洲和亞洲新興市場。 ”遠遠大於美國的次級抵押貸款。 Iceland was at the leading edge of the problem.冰島是前沿的問題。 Hungary and other states may follow.匈牙利和其他國家可能會採取後續。 In a Paul Krugman New York Times op-ed, he discussed currency crises and said he “never anticipated anything like what’s happening now.”在保羅克魯格曼紐約時報論壇版，他討論了貨幣危機，並說他“從來沒有像預期的任何發生的事情了。 ”

He cited Morgan Stanley’s chief currency strategist Stephen Jen (his former student) saying since Lehman’s demise, we’ve seen world emerging market currency crises.他引用摩根士丹利的首席貨幣策略師任永力（他的前學生）說，因為雷曼兄弟的消亡，我們看到的世界新興市場的貨幣危機。 “So far, the US financial sector has been (at) the epicentre of the global crisis. “到目前為止，美國的金融部門已（在）的中心的全球性危機。 I fear that a hard landing in EM assets and economies (unfolding in Europe) will become the second epicentre in the coming months, with very damaging feedback effects on the developed world.”我擔心的是，硬著陸電磁資產和經濟體（展現在歐洲）將成為第二震中在今後幾個月中，非常有害的反饋意見對發達世界的。 “

Already Austria, Hungary, Ukraine, Serbia, Belarus “queuing up for” IMF rescue packages.已奧地利，匈牙利，烏克蘭，塞爾維亞，白俄羅斯“排隊”國際貨幣基金組織救援一攬子計劃。 Jumping from the frying pan into the fire unless they can arrange no-strings loans.跳躍從煎鍋到火災，除非他們可以安排無弦貸款。 Given the gravity of the crisis and danger of its contagion, maybe so or at least escape the worst type IMF demands.鑑於嚴重的危機和危險的傳染也許這樣或至少是最嚴重的逃避型國際貨幣基金組織的要求。 They’ve swallowed enough neoliberalism already.他們已經吞噬了足夠的新自由主義。 It exacerbates their dire condition.這加劇了他們的悲慘狀況。

Europe is now reeling under stress.歐洲現在是繅絲壓力之下。 Heavily pressured by emerging market debt.沉重壓力，新興市場債務。 The Eastern bloc borrowed heavily in dollars, euros and Swiss francs.東方集團借來大量的美元，歐元和瑞士法郎。 Some in Hungary and Latvia in Yen.一些在匈牙利和拉脫維亞在日元。 An unpublished 2006 IMF report warned about their most dangerous excesses in the world.一個未發表的2006年國際貨幣基金組織的報告警告說他們最危險的暴行在世界上。 Nothing was done to curb them, and finally its authors “had their moment of vindication as Eastern Europe went haywire.” It hit Hungary, Romania and put Russia “in the eye of the storm, despite its energy wealth.什麼做的目的是制止他們，並最終其作者“他們時刻維護東歐失控了。 ”創下匈牙利，羅馬尼亞和俄羅斯提出“在風暴中心，儘管其能源財富。 The cost of insuring Russian sovereign debt (through CDSs) surged to 1200 basis points last week.” More than Iceland “before Gotterdammerung struck Reykjavik.”成本投保俄羅斯的主權債務（通過CDSs ）飆升到1200點上週。 “超過冰島”之前Gotterdammerung擊中雷克雅未克。 “

With oil prices plunging, markets no longer believe that Russian state spending is viable, and the fear is that peripheral contagion will invade the eurozone’s core.由於油價下跌，市場不再認為，俄羅斯國家支出是可行的，而且令人擔心的是，周圍蔓延將入侵歐元區的核心。 Yield spreads between German and Italian 10-year bonds are being watched.之間的利差德國和意大利的10年期國債正在觀看。 “They reached a post-EMU (European Economic and Monetary Union)” high of 93 in late October. “他們到達後歐洲貨幣聯盟（歐洲經濟和貨幣聯盟） ”高93在10月下旬。 No one knows the “snapping point” but it’s feared that anything above 100 is cause for alarm.沒有人知道“結束點” ，但它擔心，任何高於100是令人震驚。

BNP Paribas’ chief currency strategist Hans Redeker cites “an imminent danger that East Europe’s currency pegs will be smashed unless EU authorities wake up to the full gravity of the threat, and that in turn will trigger a dangerous crisis for EMU itself.”法國巴黎銀行的首席貨幣策略師漢斯雷德克引用“迫在眉睫的危險，東歐的貨幣掛鉤將瓦解，除非歐盟當局喚醒充分嚴重性的威脅，這反過來會導致危險的危機，歐洲經濟與貨幣聯盟本身。 ”

“The system is paralyzed,” he said, “and starting to look like Black Wednesday 1992.” He fears a very deflationary effect across Western Europe. “該系統癱瘓， ”他說， “並開始看起來像黑色星期三1992年。 ”他非常擔心通貨緊縮的影響西歐。 One “almost guaranteed” to implode the euroland money supply.其中“幾乎是保障”的內爆歐元區貨幣供應量。 As for UK banks, they’re lightly exposed to the former Soviet bloc.至於英國的銀行，他們輕易接觸到前蘇聯集團。 But not to emerging Asia.但沒有亞洲新興市場。 In the amount of $329 billion.數額三千二百九十點〇億美元。 Almost as much and America and Japan combined.幾乎同樣多的美國和日本的總和。 Evan-Pritchard concludes with a sobering note for his UK readers.埃文-普里查德最後清醒地注意到他的英國讀者。 “Whether you realise it or not, your pension fund is sunk in Vietnamese bonds and loans to Indian steel magnates.” Like for many other investments, that money’s safety is far from secure. “無論你意識到與否，您的養老基金是在越南沉沒的債券和貸款，以印度鋼鐵巨頭。 ”如同許多其他的投資，這些錢的安全是遠遠達不到安全。

Neither is Britain according to a Mail online October 27 article headlined: The country “may need 0% interest rate to avoid a depression, leading economist warns.” He’s Charles Goodhart.無論是英國根據郵件在線10月27日的文章標題：國家“可能需要0 ％的利率，以避免抑鬱，著名經濟學家警告說。 ”他是查爾斯古德哈特。 A founding member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).一個創始會員國的英國央行貨幣政策委員會（ MPC ） 。 Now a professor emeritus of banking and finance at the London School of Economics.現在名譽教授銀行業和金融業在英國倫敦經濟學院。

He told Channel 4’s Dispatches program: “Interest rates will go down from now, by how far and how fast nobody knows.他告訴4頻道的派遣計劃： “利率將下降從現在開始，通過多遠和多快的速度沒人知道。 They could go to zero” like in Japan.他們可以去零“就像在日本。 And may have to.並可能。 Yet other experts warn that at this stage big cuts are “too little, too late” because the country already faces a long severe recession.然而，其他專家警告說，在這一階段大幅削減是“太少，太晚” ，因為該國已面臨著長期嚴重的經濟衰退。

On October 29, more confirmation from a UK Independent article headlined: “Repossessions soar by 70 per cent as joblessness rises.” From new Financial Services Authority figures. 10月29日，更多的確認從英國獨立的文章標題： “收回飆升百分之七十的失業率上升。 ”從新的金融服務管理局的數字。 Some 11,054 second quarter foreclosures.一些一一零五四秒季度贖回。 Up from under 6500 last year.根據從6500去年。 Numbers expected to keep rising, and new Land Registry data revealed continuing house price declines.數預計將持續上漲，新的土地註冊處的數據顯示房屋價格繼續下降。 Around 8% in the past 12 months. 8 ％左右，在過去12個月。

A gloomy picture, according to Howard Archer.一個陰鬱的圖片，根據霍華德阿徹。 Global Insight’s chief UK economist. Global Insight的首席英國經濟學家。 In his view, “The fundamentals continue to be largely stacked against the housing market, and it seems odds-on that prices will fall considerably further.” Especially given “accelerating unemployment set to pick up significantly… recession (and) wages (held) down.” Add to this a 167% rise in calls to the housing charity Shelter helpline.他認為， “基本面繼續在很大程度上堆疊對房地產市場，似乎賠率上，價格將進一步下降很大。 ”特別是考慮“加速失業率將拿起顯著衰退... （和）工資（舉行）下來。 “添加到這是一個167 ％的漲幅呼籲住房慈善住房求助。 Its chief executive, Adam Sampson, said: “These figures are not only shocking and worse than expected, they highlight the crippling severity of the credit crunch on ordinary homeowners.” It’s hit Britain especially hard, but economic woes are little different throughout the continent.該公司首席執行官亞當桑普森說： “這些數字不僅令人震驚，不如預期，但是，它們突出了癱瘓嚴重的信貸緊縮對普通住宅。 ”這是英國打擊尤其嚴重，但經濟困難的是各地略有不同大陸。

In Japan as well after the benchmark Nikkei index hit a 26 year low and a scant 18% of its 1989 high.在日本以及在基準日經指數跌至26年來的最低水平和很少有18 ％的1989年高。 Despite a few days of rebound, it made front page (October 28) Wall Street Journal news in an article headlined: “Crisis Deals New Blow to Japan” in a feature story about the nation’s largest bank.儘管幾天的反彈，它在頭版（ 10月28日） 華爾街日報消息，一篇文章的標題： “危機特價新的打擊日本”的一個特點講述全美最大的銀行。 Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.三菱UFJ金融集團。 On October 27, it said it would raise $10.7 billion in new capital. 10月27日，該公司表示，將提高107億美元新資本。 The result of its own vulnerabilities and Japan’s economic turmoil.由於其自身的弱點和日本的經濟動盪。 According to Kristine Li of Tokyo’s KBC Securities: Mitsubishi’s announcement was a “big blow” to investors’ confidence.據克里斯李東京KBC證券：三菱商事宣布是一個“重大打擊” ，以投資者的信心。 Its share price reflected it.其股票價格反映了它。 Plunging 15% on October 27.下降15 ％ ， 10月27日。 Other banks hit as well.其他銀行也擊中。 Major ones.主要的。 They, too, need more capital and will have to raise it from investors.他們也需要更多的資本，將不得不提高它從投資者。

Some in Tokyo believe the country can do little to reverse the downward trend.在東京的一些國家認為可以做什麼來扭轉下降的趨勢。 According to Credit Suisse’s Toyko-based chief equity strategist, Shinichi Ichikawa, “The Japanese government alone can’t fix” the nation’s export woes or the deepening global crisis.據瑞士信貸銀行東京首席證券分析師，市川真一， “日本政府不能單獨解決”國家的出口困境或加深全球性危機。 “The factors hurting the market are beyond Japan’s control.” “傷害的因素，市場超出日本的控制。 ”

The Financial Times paints a similar picture. 金融時報描繪了一個類似的圖片。 The Nikkei down 53% through late October and has “the dubious honour of having been the worst performing leading developed country market last year.” The current crisis hit Japan in several ways.日經指數下跌53 ％ ， 10月下旬通過了“可疑榮幸地被表現最差的主要發達國家的市場去年。 ”目前的危機襲擊日本在幾個方面。 Its banking and financial sectors “in spite of having relatively less exposure to toxic assets.” Nonetheless, investors worry about their underlying strength or lack of it.它的銀行和金融部門“儘管有相對較少接觸有毒的資產。 ”儘管如此，投資者擔心自己的潛在力量或缺乏。

Japan is heavily export dependent.日本是嚴重依賴出口。 For most of its economic growth and health.對於大多數的經濟增長和健康。 It’s hurt by a surging Yen.它傷害了日元上漲。 At a 13 year high against the dollar.在13年新高對美元的匯率。 In addition, hedge funds and foreign investors are bailing out.此外，對沖基金和外國投資者脫困了。 The way they’re doing everywhere, but it’s hurting Japan more than most because it relies so heavily on outside capital.他們的方式正在世界各地，但它的傷害超過日本，因為它是如此嚴重依賴外部資本。

So does China in the form of foreign investment that doesn’t affect how it manages its banks.那麼，中國形式的外國投資並不影響它如何管理銀行。 At least in what they can invest in non-Chinese securities.至少在他們可以投資於非中國證券。 Very little and why the government is spending nothing to bail them out.很少，為什麼政府開支沒有保釋他們。 There’s no need because they own scant amounts of toxic assets and use their own to fuel internal growth.沒有必要，因為他們自己很少量的有毒資產和使用他們自己的燃料內部增長。 What China needs badly for its large and growing population.中國需要什麼嚴重的大國和人口不斷增加。

It’s not insulated from the global crisis and will feel it in slower growth.這不是免受全球性危機，並認為這在經濟增長放緩。 Still expected to be impressively high although certain to drop from its 9.9% in the first nine months of 2008.不過預計將令人印象深刻的高雖然某些下降從9.9 ％ ，前9個月的2008年。 Down from 12% last year.低於12 ％ ，去年同期。 Amidst a deepening global slump.煙雨深化全球衰退。 It’s helped by strong domestic demand and its exports.這得益於強勁的國內需求和出口。 Up an impressive 21.5% over last year.一個令人印象深刻的21.5 ％ ，比去年同期。 Heavily to Asia to make up for slumping Western demand.重到亞洲，以彌補西方需求低迷。

It’s affected China’s toy manufacturers.這是影響中國的玩具製造商。 China’s customs agency reported that 52.7% of them shut down in the first seven months of 2008.中國的海關機構的報告說， 52.7 ％ ，其中關閉前7個月， 2008年。 Mass layoffs resulted.導致大規模裁員。 Other industries are also affected.其他行業也受到了影響。 Textiles, shoes, clothing, home appliances and electronics because of slumping Western markets.紡織品，鞋類，服裝，家電和電子產品，因為西方市場的低迷。 Millions of workers are at risk and why China announced an economic stimulus plan to keep growth as high as possible.數以百萬計的工人處於危險之中，為什麼中國宣布了一項刺激經濟計劃繼續增長盡可能高。 A targeted minimum 8%.有針對性的最低8 ％ 。 If achieved will be impressive by any standard.如果將取得的令人印象深刻的任何標準。

A potential glimmer of light amidst a dismal global outlook with China determined to keep it that way although there’s no assurance it can.一個潛在的一線希望輕一片暗淡全球經濟前景與中國決心繼續保持這種方式雖然沒有保證它可以。 The reason its stock market slumped like most others.其原因股市下跌最喜歡別人。 However, it may rebound sooner given the government’s commitment to big infrastructure spending increases.然而，它可能反彈越快鑑於政府的承諾，大基礎設施方面的支出增加。 With its “embarrassment of riches” according to The Economist .憑藉其“尷尬財富”根據經濟學家 。 Growing “at a staggering rate” says its Intelligence Unit.生長在“驚人的速度”說，情報單位。 Its huge $1.75 trillion in foreign currency reserves.其巨大的一萬七千五百點零零零億美元外匯儲備。 Likely to top $2 trillion by yearend.可能頂端2萬億美元年底。 That can be used for roads, airports, nuclear power plants, hydro power stations, and more.可用於道路，機場，核電廠，水電站等。 To create new jobs for laid off workers.為了創造新的就業機會的下崗職工。 As many as possible.盡可能多。 What America should do to stimulate growth.什麼美國應該做的，以刺激經濟增長。 Not commit billions for corporate acquisitions.不承諾數十億的企業收購。 Bailouts that won’t work.金援，將無法工作。 That will harm the economy, not heal it.這將損害美國經濟，而不是治愈它。 The reason even in today’s climate China’s star is rising.原因即使在今天的氣候中國的明星正在上升。 In the US, it’s growing dim.在美國，它的增長暗淡。

The Worst Is Yet to Come 最糟糕的還在後頭

According to economist Nouriel Roubini.據經濟學家努里爾•魯比尼。 Called Dr. Doom for his gloomy views that today command worldwide respect.所謂的末日博士，他悲觀的看法，今天指揮全世界的尊重。 Opinions once dismissed now widely sought.意見再次駁回現在普遍要求。 He believes recession began in early 2008.他認為，經濟衰退開始於2008年初。 Will last throughout 2009.將持續整個2009年。 Will be severe and painful with GDP contracting 4-5%.將是嚴重的和痛苦的國內生產總值訂約4-5 ％ 。 On October 29, he told Bloomberg : “We’re entering a vicious circle where economies are spinning down, financial markets are spinning lower, and policy makers in my view — and that’s my biggest fear — have lost control of what’s going on in the financial markets.” 10月29日，他告訴彭博 ： “我們正進入一個惡性循環的經濟紡紗下跌，金融市場的紡紗較低，決策者在我看來-這是我最大的恐懼-已經失去了控制什麼正在進行中的金融市場。 “

In London in late October, he predicted that hundreds of hedge funds will close down and given the extent of panic selling markets may have to suspend trading.在倫敦10月下旬，他預測，數以百計的對沖基金將關閉，並給予程度的恐慌性拋售的市場可能暫停交易。 Perhaps for a week or more before resuming.也許一個星期或更長時間才能恢復。 In September, Russia’s stock exchanges shut down after their steepest ever one day fall.今年9月，俄羅斯股票交易所關閉後，其最大以往任何時候都一天下降。 They did again in late October after falling nearly as much.他們又在10月下旬下降近多。 Perhaps Wall Street is next.也許是華爾街未來。 Maybe Europe.也許歐洲。

If the latest (October 28 reported) consumer confidence report is an indication, it may happen sooner, not later.如果最新（ 10月28日報導）消費者信心指數報告表明，它可能很快就結婚，不晚。 It was dismal by any standard.這是令人沮喪的任何標準。 From the Conference Board.從會議局。 An all-time low and far below expectations.全期低，遠低於市場預期。 Surveyed economists forecast a reading of 52.調查的經濟學家預計該指數為52 。 It came in woefully short at 38 from an upwardly revised 61.4 September figure.它排在遠遠短於38向上修正61.4 9月的數字。 Results were “significantly more pessimistic” on future business prospects and jobs.結果是“顯著更為悲觀”對未來商業前景和就業機會。 It signals trouble if translated into spending that, in turn, means lower profits and share prices already crushed over the past 12 months.它的信號故障，如果轉化為消費，反過來，這意味著更低的利潤和股票價格已經粉碎在過去12個月。 With no end of pain in sight.由於沒有疼痛結束的跡象。

Yet markets remain volatile because of heavy insider manipulation for big profits up or down.然而，市場仍然不穩定，因為沉重的內幕操縱大利潤上升或下降。 The “not-so-invisible hand” working its magic.在“不那麼看不見的手”的神奇的工作。 Killing the “free-market” according to author Ellen Brown.殺的“自由市場”根據布朗的作者海倫。 Making it hazardous for ordinary investors to risk anything in this climate.使危險的普通投資者的風險任何在這種氣候。 Casino capitalism with the odds heavily favoring the house.賭場資本主義的可能性嚴重偏袒房子。 Getting Brown to quote a talk show commentator saying: “I’m fully diversified; some under the mattress; some under the floor boards; and some in the backyard.” Better that than lose everything.乘車布朗引用脫口秀節目的評論員說： “我充分多樣化;一些床墊下，一些在地板;和一些在後院。 ”更好比失去一切。

Because world economies are “at a breaking point” according to Roubini.由於世界經濟是“在一個突破點”根據魯比尼。 “Essentially in free fall (and near) sheer panic.” Played out in markets that reflect future expectations. “主要是在自由降落（附近）純粹的恐慌。 ”起了市場，反映未來的期望。 Despite relief rallies, very much pointing down and signaling no end of crisis in sight.儘管救災集會，非常指著信號，並沒有結束危機的跡象。 It got Roubini to state:它被認為是魯比尼指出：

“Every time there has been a severe crisis in the last six months, people have said this is the catastrophic event that signals the bottom.” Every time so far they were wrong. “每當出現了嚴重的危機在過去6個月中，人們說，這是災難性的事件，信號的底部。 ”每一次迄今為止，他們錯了。 “They said it after Bear Stearns, after Fannie and Freddie, after AIG, and after” the $700 billion bailout plan. “他們說，在貝爾斯登之後， Fannie和Freddie後，美國國際集團，並在” 7,000億美元援助計劃。 “Each time they have called the bottom, and the bottom has not been reached.” “每一次，他們所謂的底部，而且底部還沒有實現。 ”

Despite everything world governments throw at their problems, Roubini thinks investors no longer trust them or believe they’ll do the right things.儘管世界各國政府都扔在他們的問題，魯比尼認為，投資者不再信任他們，或者認為他們會做正確的事情。 For good reason.有原因的。 Because so far they haven’t and what they’re now doing is mostly woefully misdirected and inadequate.因為到目前為止還沒有和他們現在這樣做主要是可悲的錯誤和不足。 “Even using the nuclear option of guaranteeing everything, providing unlimited liquidity, nationalising the banks, making clear that nobody of importance is going to fail, even that has not helped.” Economic fundamentals no longer apply. “即使使用核武器的選擇，保證一切，提供了無限的流動資金，銀行國有化，清楚地表明，任何人的重要的是要失敗，甚至認為沒有幫助。 ”經濟基本面已經不再適用。 “We are reaching a breaking point frankly.” “我們正在達成一項突破點坦率。 ”

From his Hong Kong base, long-time investment advisor and fund manager Marc Faber publishes the “Gloom Boom and Doom” report.從他的香港基地，長期的投資顧問和基金經理馬克費伯出版的“股市繁榮與毀滅”的報告。 On how he views economic and financial prospects and investment opportunities worldwide.論如何，他認為經濟和金融前景和投資機會，世界各地。 Given today’s climate, he’s more than ever in demand and shows up often in the financial press and on business channels like Bloomberg and CNBC.由於今天的氣候，他比以往任何時候更加的需求和經常出現的金融新聞和商業渠道，像彭博和CNBC電視頻道。 But not with good cheer.但是，並非具有良好的喝彩聲。

He thinks that government interventions may be partially responsible for world market selloffs.他認為，政府干預可能是部分負責世界市場的拋售。 Not least because in the current climate guaranteeing bank deposits leaves investors with no incentive to take risks.這不僅是因為在當前的氣候，保證銀行存款葉投資者沒有動力承擔風險。 And other measures have been counterproductive as well.和其他措施，已經適得其反的。 “They have increased volatility. “他們有更多的波動。 It’s impossible to forecast market movements when you have interventions.”這是不可能預測市場走勢時，你的干預。 “

Downward readjustments of company book values may be next in his view as happened in previous bear markets.向下調整，公司帳面價值可能是下一個他認為是發生在以前的熊市。 That revealed overstated estimates.這表明誇大的估計。 “If the global economy slows down as much as I think,” he said, “then a lot of book values will have to be adjusted downward quite substantially.” And rate cuts will create their own headache. “如果全球經濟減速多達我想， ”他說， “然後大量的帳面價值將不得不向下調整了相當大的。 ”和降息將創建自己的頭痛。 “I think first we’ll have a bout of deflation that will actually be quite substantial, but then the budget deficits will go through the roof and the Fed will print even more money (so that) later on we’ll have very high inflation.” “我想，首先我們會一波通縮，實際上將相當可觀，但預算赤字將通過屋頂和美聯儲將印刷更多的錢（使）以後我們會非常高通脹“ 。

Morgan Stanley (”perennial bear”) economist and chairman of the company’s Asia operations Stephen Roach was extremely critical of Fed policy in an October 27 Financial Times op-ed titled: “Add ‘financial stability’ to the Fed’s mandate.” He called “the era of excess as much about policy blunders and regulatory negligence as about mistakes by financial institutions.” We need a new system and new role for the Fed in his judgment.摩根士丹利（ “常年承擔” ）董事長經濟學家和該公司的亞洲業務史蒂芬羅奇是極其關鍵的美聯儲政策， 10月27日金融時報論壇版標題： “購買'金融穩定'的美聯儲的任務。 “他所謂的”過剩時代的大約多的政策失誤和管理疏忽的錯誤的金融機構。 “我們需要一個新系統和新的作用，美聯儲在他的判斷。 Explicitly to reference “financial stability.”明確提到“金融的穩定。 ”

Something critically needed for a “post-bubble, crisis-torn US economy.” To make the Fed “tougher in its neglected regulatory oversight capacity.” To counter “bubble denialists (like) Alan Greenspan.” To mandate Fed policy “err on the side of caution.” To expose the “fatal mistake” in trusting “ideology” over “objective metrics.一些急需的“後泡沫，危機摧殘的美國經濟。 ”為了使美聯儲“強硬在其被忽視的監管能力。 ”為了對付“泡沫denialists （像）格林斯潘。 ”授權美聯儲的政策“過於一邊小心。 “揭露”致命的錯誤“ ，相信”意識形態“的”客觀指標。 Like all crises, this one is a wake-up call.像所有的危機，這是一個敲響了警鐘。 The Fed made policy blunders of historic proportions that must be avoided in the future.”美聯儲政策的失誤取得歷史性的，必須避免在未來。 “

However, dealing with today’s crisis requires an even bigger international rescue according to Roubini.然而，今天處理的危機，需要一個更大的國際救援根據魯比尼。 And whatever’s done, America faces “year(s) of economic stagnation.” After a deep protracted downturn.不論做，美國面臨的“一年（ s ）的經濟停滯。 ”經過長期低迷深。 If as true as he forecasts, it signals the end of prosperity.如果真正因為他的預測，它標誌著結束的繁榮。 A new age of austerity and world economies in extreme disrepair and needing an alternative model in lieu of a clearly failed one.一個新時代的緊縮和世界經濟在極端失修，需要另一種模式代替顯然未能之一。 Hugely corrupted as well.巨大損壞的。

Will world leaders seize the challenge and act?世界各國領導人將抓住這一挑戰，並採取行動？ Only if mass outrage demands it and even then change at best may be minimalist and short-lived.只有當群眾的憤怒，並要求即使在那時最好的變化可能是最低限度的和短命的。 If history is a guide.如果歷史是一個指導。 What better time to prove history wrong.還有什麼更好的時間來證明歷史上是錯誤的。 If not now, when?如果不是現在，更待何時？ If not by us, who?如果不是我們，是誰？ If not soon, maybe never.如果不是很快，也許從來沒有過。 If that’s not incentive enough, what is?如果沒有足夠的激勵，是什麼？

Have Your Say: The End of Prosperity 你說：年底繁榮
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