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Saturday, November 1st, 2008 星期六， 2008年11月1日

By Stephen Lendman - RINF |由斯蒂芬Lendman -R INF|

From too much of a good thing.从太多的一件好事。 From the 1980s and 1990s excesses.从80年代和90年代的暴行。 From the longest ever US bull market.从美国有史以来最长的牛市。 Heavily manipulated to keep it levitating.重操纵保持磁悬浮。 From August 1982 to January 2000.从1982年8月至2000年1月。 An illusory reprieve from October 2002 to October 2007.虚幻死缓2002年10月至2007年10月。 Fluctuations aside, all lost in the past 12 months.波动外，所有损失在过去12个月。 The wages of sin are now due, and payment is being painfully extracted.工资的罪孽现在由于和支付正在痛苦地提取。 From all nations globally.从全球所有国家。 Affecting ordinary people the most who had nothing to do with creating booms and busts.影响到普通百姓谁最没有什么关系创造繁荣和衰退。 They got little on the upside but are paying dearly for the down.他们有没有上档，但付出代价的下降。

Even “free-market” champions are unnerved.即使是“自由市场”冠军的信心。 Arthur Laffer for one in his October 27 Wall Street Journal op-ed headlined: “The Age of Prosperity Is Over.” He states that “This administration and Congress will be remembered like Herbert Hoover,” but not for the right reasons.阿瑟拉弗一个在他10月27日华尔街日报的专栏版的标题： “时代的繁荣已经结束。 ”他说， “这个政府和国会将记住胡佛一样， ”但没有合适理由。 He continued: “what this administration and Congress have done will be viewed in much the same light as what Herbert Hoover did in the years 1929 through 1932.他继续说： “这是政府和国会所做的将被视为在同样轻如胡佛什么像在1929年年内通过1932年。 Whenever people make decisions when they are panicked, the consequences are rarely pretty.每当人们作出决定时，他们感到恐慌，其后果是相当罕见。 We are now witnessing the end of prosperity.”我们现在看到结束的繁荣。 “

Readers will remember Laffer from the Reagan era.读者会记得拉弗从里根时代。 The “supply side trickle down” guru. “供应方涓滴”教主。 More popularly called “Reaganomics.” GHW Bush’s “voodoo economics.” The faux theory that tax cuts for the rich grow the economy and benefit everyone.更多民选所谓的“里根” 。 GHW布什的“巫术经济学。 ”学说的人造的减税富人的经济增长和所有人受益。 By encouraging well-off recipients to earn more money.通过鼓励小康受助人挣更多的钱。 For more tax revenue.欲了解更多的税收。 For the greater good of everyone.为了更大利益，每个人。

What Reagan’s budget director, David Stockman, called a “Trojan Horse.” To con Congress into accepting “Republican orthodoxy (and pave the way for) the greed level, the level of opportunism, (to get) out of control.” From tax cuts for the rich.什么里根的预算办公室主任，大卫斯托克曼，被称为“特洛伊木马” 。为了控制国会接受“共和党正统（和铺平道路）的贪婪一级，一级的机会主义， （得到）失去了控制。 ”从减税的富人。 Loopholes for special interests.漏洞的特殊利益。 Tax increases on low and middle-income households.税收的增加低收入和中等收入家庭。 Taking from the many for the few.考虑从许多的很少。 What Laffer and others championed and still do.什么拉弗和其他拥护，却仍然。 Along with believing markets work best so let them.相信随着市场的最好的工作，以便让他们。 Government is the problem, not the solution.政府是问题，而不是解决问题的方法。

The results weren’t encouraging.结果并不令人鼓舞。 Macroeconomic growth for sure until it ended.宏观经济增长肯定的，直到结束。 The rich got much richer.富了更丰富。 The top 1%.顶端1 ％ 。 Another 9% to some extent.另一个9 ％ ，在一定程度上。 Not the rest, however.没有休息，但是。 Their well-being either stagnated or declined and now are in free-fall.他们的福祉要么停滞或下降，现在是在自由降落。 Their savings and futures erased by rampant deleveraging.他们的储蓄和期货抹去猖獗deleveraging 。 Market manipulation.市场操控的能力。 Massive fraud.大规模的欺诈行为。 Leaving millions of households in trouble.使数以百万计的家庭陷入困境。 With the worst likely yet to come.随着最坏的可能尚未到来。 All Laffer can do is resurrect Hoover.拉弗所有能做的就是复活胡佛。 The real villains are present and among us.真正的恶棍是当前和在我们中间。 Some active.有些活跃。 Others not.其他没有。 Their venom corrosive and harmful.它们的毒液腐蚀性和有害的。 Hurting economies and people everywhere.伤害经济和世界各地人民。

From boom now bust.从现在繁荣萧条。 Rampant speculation and fraud.猖獗的投机和欺诈行为。 In most asset classes.在大多数资产类别。 Especially equities, housing, commercial real estate, commodities, currencies, and huge leveraged debt for levitation.特别是股票，房地产，商业房地产，商品，货币，和巨大的杠杆债务磁悬浮。

As a consequence, world economies are reeling and leaders scrambling to contain them.因此，世界经济的缫丝和领导人纷纷包含这些内容。 With the most ambitious/outrageous rescue plans ever.随着最雄心勃勃的/无耻救援计划以往。 Likely mindful, or they should be, that all their grand schemes can’t undue nearly three decades of excess.可能考虑到，或者他们应该是所有宏伟计划，他们不能过分近30年的过剩。 The most extreme financial sins.最极端的财政罪孽。 The age of levitation is over.年龄磁悬浮已经结束。 As financial expert and investor safety advocate Martin Weiss puts it:作为金融专家和投资者的安全魏斯主张马丁所说：

Here’s the “inescapable reality: Now that the global debt bubble has burst, all the world’s leaders and all their radical new measures can’t” contain, let alone undue, all the damage.这是“不可避免的现实：现在，全球债务泡沫已经破裂，世界上所有的领导人和所有其激进的新措施，不能”载，更不用说不当，所有的损失。 They can’t “turn back the clock or reverse decades” of excess and greed.他们不能“时钟倒转或扭转几十年来”多余的和贪婪。 “They cannot repeal the law of gravity or prevent investors from selling. “他们不能废止的法律重力或阻止投资者抛售。 Even as they sweep piles of bad debts under the carpet with bailouts and buyouts, mountains of new debts will go bad — another flood of mortgages that can’t be paid, a new raft of credit cards falling behind, an avalanche of companies defaulting on their bonds.”即使因为他们横扫成堆的坏帐根据地毯的救助和收购，堆积如山的新债务将变坏-另一个洪水的抵押贷款，不能支付，一个新的一系列的信用卡落在后面，雪崩的公司拖欠他们的债券。 “

No matter how many billions they throw at the problem, “trillions more in wealth will be wiped out in market declines.不管有多少，他们扔几十亿的问题， “十万亿更多的财富将被消灭在市场下跌。 For a while longer, our leaders may try to play their last cards in a herculean effort to stop the fall.” They may commit good money to save bad.对于一段时间，我们的领导人可能会尝试发挥其最后卡在一项艰巨的努力，停止下降。 “他们可能会好钱拯救坏。 “Inject more money into bankrupt banks, broken brokerage firms, endangered insurers and any company they deem essential to the economy.” “注入更多的钱投入银行破产，破碎的经纪公司，保险公司和濒危任何公司他们认为必要的经济。 ”

It won’t work.它将无法工作。 “It will be a blood transfusion with a failing heartbeat.” Soon enough they’d better learn that “it’s impossible to save the entire world.” The right choice is to “accept the (inevitable) decline, manage it proactively,” and avoid the perilous alternative. “这将是一个输血与一个失败的心跳。 ”很快他们会更好地了解到， “这是不可能的，以拯救整个世界。 ”选择的权利是“接受（不可避免）下降，主动管理， “和避免危险的办法。 An “open floodgate (of) climatic selling.一种“开放的闸门（中）气候出售。 A crash producing “the final phase of the decline.” Erasing “anywhere from 50% to 90% of (stocks, corporate bonds, real estate, foreign currencies and commodities valuations) in a matter of months or even weeks.”当机生产“的最后阶段下降。 ”抹掉“任何从50 ％至90 ％ （股票，公司债券，房地产，外币及商品价格）在几个月甚至几个星期。 ”

“As many as one-fourth (of S&P 500 companies) could go bankrupt.” The entire index “flip(ing) from the black to the red.” Around 20% of US workers could lose their jobs. “多达四分之一（标准普尔500家公司）可能会破产。 ”整个指数“倒装（法）由黑色的红色。 ”大约20 ％的美国工人失去工作。 The standard of living of American households seriously harmed.生活水平的美国家庭造成严重的损害。 The potential for big trouble ahead is real and growing.潜在的大麻烦是真正的未来和发展。 The effect on world economies serious and spreading.影响世界经济严重和蔓延。

Weiss called the Fed’s latest rate cut a “DUD,” and said the big news was “the Fed’s latest cockamamie effort to save the world.” With $120 billion to Brazil, South Korea, Singapore and Mexico ($30 billion each).魏斯呼吁美联储的最新降息是“哑弹” ，并说，大新闻是“美联储的最新cockamamie努力拯救世界。 ”有了1200亿美元，巴西，韩国，新加坡和墨西哥（ 300亿美元，每） 。 This is besides committed IMF funds for Hungary ($25.5 billion), Ukraine ($16.5 billion), and Iceland ($2.5 billion) and a new $100 billion Short-Term Liquidity Facility offering short-term loans.这是国际货币基金组织承诺除了资金匈牙利（ 255亿美元） ，乌克兰（ 165亿美元） ，冰岛（ 25亿美元）和一个新的1000亿美元的短期流动资金融资提供短期贷款。

It’s an illusion to think Bernanke can play “Santa Claus, the Pied Piper and the Fairy Godmother all in one act.” In fact, he’s “desperate” and resorting to “the most radical measures of all time.这是一个错觉认为伯南克可以发挥“圣诞老人，在斑驳的胡椒和仙女教母在同一个行为。 ”事实上，他的“绝望”和诉诸“最激进的措施的所有时间。 Playing his last cards.” Knowing that if he fails, “it’s game over.他最后一次演奏卡。 “知道，如果他失败了， ”这是比赛结束了。 Taking huge risks — that his rescue-the-whole-world schemes will backfire in the form of falling confidence in the US government as a whole.” Besides there’s no way make banks lend.考虑巨大的风险-他救援的，整个世界的计划将适得其反的形式下降的信心，美国政府作为一个整体。 “除了没有办法使银行贷款的情况。 Consumers borrow.消费者借贷。 Continue to spend.继续花费。 Have the means to do it.有办法做到这一点。 Reverse decades of excess or repeal the law of gravity to keep markets levitating.反向几十年的过剩或废除法律的严重性，以保持市场的磁悬浮。

On October 28, more evidence of what he’s up against from the Washington Post . 10月28日，更多的证据是，他反对从华盛顿邮报 。 In an article headlined: “Downturn Clobbers Public Pension Funds.” According to staff writer Peter Whoriskey, they’re being ravaged across the country, “with many state and local governments (losing) more than 20% of their retirements pools.” Even worse because they were inadequately funded before the crisis, according to the Government Accountability Office.在一篇标题为： “逆转Clobbers公共养老基金。 ”根据工作人员的作家彼得Whoriskey ，他们被蹂躏的全国各地， “许多州和地方政府（失去）的20 ％以上的退休游泳池。 ”即使更糟，因为他们资金不足的危机之前，根据政府问责局。 And the 20% figure is conservative given the severity of the October selloff.和20 ％的数字是保守的给予严重的10月份大跌。

According to Chicago-based Northern Trust Investment Risk and Analytical Services’ William Frieske, “We expect this (will) be the worst year we’ve seen since we’ve been tracking the funds.” They service 27 million people.据总部设在芝加哥的北方信托公司投资风险和分析服务'威廉Frieske ， “我们期望，这次（会）是最严重的一年里，我们已经看到，因为我们一直跟踪的资金。 ”他们服务的2700万人。 Supported by taxpayer money, investment returns and employee contributions.支持纳税人的钱，投资回报和员工的捐款。 The bear market “played havoc on” actuarial calculations to ensure enough is available for future retirees.熊市“起到破坏”精算计算，以确保足够的可用于未来的退休人员。 Because about 60% of fund assets are in common stocks, according to the National Association of State Retirement Administrators.由于大约60 ％的基金资产是在普通股，根据该协会的国家退休管理员。

What’s ahead depends on economic prospects.什么是未来取决于经济前景。 Whether markets will continue to contract.无论是市场将继续合同。 How deep and for how long.如何深，时间有多长。 When recovery will occur.当将出现复苏。 Will it be sustainable, and is there enough time to make up the shortfall for retirees expecting their pensions.它会不会是可持续的，是有足够的时间来弥补缺口预计为离退休人员的养老金。 After the Dow bottomed in 1932, it took a generation to recoup losses.后触底反弹道指在1932年，经过一代人的时间才能挽回损失。 What investors hope won’t repeat today.什么投资者希望不会重复今天。

Much will given the raft of bad news:在很大程度上将给予一系列的坏消息：

– spreading layoffs across the country; on October 29, the New York Times reporting their painful impact in New York; spreading “well beyond Wall Street;” expected to “drive up the city’s unemployment rate and strain the state’s unemployment insurance fund;” hitting everywhere, including service firms; professional ones — law firms, banks, other financial services, publishers, tourism, besides tens of thousands on Wall Street; -传播裁员全国各地;于1 0月2 9日， 纽约时报汇报其痛苦的影响在纽约举行;散布“远远超出华尔街” ;预计“推动城市的失业率和应变该州的失业保险基金“ ;触及全球各地，包括服务公司;专业的-律师事务所，银行，其他金融服务，出版商，旅游，除了数以万计的华尔街;

– official unemployment heading for the high single digits; the true number far higher and growing; real pain is being felt as a result; -官方失业率标题为高个位数;的真实数量远远高于和日益增长的;真正的痛苦是觉得作为一个结果;

– the worst housing crisis since the 1930s; continued record home price declines, according to the S&P Case-Shiller Index; 16.6% in its latest (20 major metropolitan areas) reading; compounded by a glut of unsold homes; -最严重的住房危机自1 930年;继续纪录房价下跌，根据标准普尔C ase- S hiller指数; 1 6.6％ ，在其最新的（ 2 0个主要大都市地区）阅读;加剧了供过于求的待售房屋;

– in an October 28 news release, the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) reported grim findings; a comparison of ownership vs. rental costs “points to negative equity accruals in many markets over the next 4 years” even as prices keep falling; many homeowners won’t ever accrue equity with many going under water; in the most inflated markets, homeownership costs outpace rents by as much as 300% placing enormous stress on household income, especially for middle and lower-income families; -在1 0月2 8日新闻发布会上，中心的经济和政策研究中心（ C EPR）报告严峻的结果;比较所有权与租赁费用“点，负资产的权责发生制在很多市场，在未来4年” ，即使价格持续下降许多业主永远不会产生公平与许多去水;在最膨胀的市场，住房成本超过租金高达300 ％ ，把巨大的压力家庭收入，特别是中等和低收入家庭;

– declining production; autos especially hard hit; Chrysler sacking 25% of its salaried force; GM suspending employee benefits; all three auto makers closing or idling plants; steel affected as a result; 17 of the nation’s 29 blast furnaces shut down; other industries also under stress; -产量下降;汽车尤其是沉重的打击;克莱斯勒公司解雇2 5％的工薪力;通用汽车公司暂停员工福利;所有三个汽车制造商关闭或停产的植物;钢铁因而受影响， 1 7个国家的2 9高炉关闭;其他行业也正在紧张;

– economists lowering their GDP forecasts; many saying we’re well into recession; fourth quarter results will be the worst since the severe 1981-82 one, and 2009 also looks even bleaker; third quarter ones out show an annualized .3% decline; most disturbing a minus 3.1% PCE (personal consumption expenditure) reading, the first drop since 1991; private investment also shrunk 1.9%; -经济学家降低其国内生产总值的预测;许多说我们正在进入衰退;第四季度业绩将是最糟糕的，因为一个严重的1 981-82年和2 009年甚至还期待暗淡;第三季度的表现出了年均0 .3％的跌幅;最令人不安的负3.1 ％ ，个人消费支出（个人消费支出）读的首次下降自1991年以来，私人投资也下降了1.9 ％ ;

– against this backdrop, little relief is being proposed; where it’s most needed; so beleaguered homeowners can keep their properties; to struggling households to stimulate demand; not for toxic assets or to fund giant bank acquisitions; what Alan Nasser reported in his article titled “The Bailout Lie Exposed;” that big banks won’t lend out their windfall; that New York Times economics reporter Joe Nocera confirmed from an employee-only recording of a JP Morgan Chase conference he secured; that the bank will use bailout funds for acquisitions; leveraged buyouts; with public money; for assets at fire sale prices; courtesy of US taxpayers; for further consolidation; a multi-generational tradition; to crush competition and grow monopolies; with both presidential candidates on board; assuring reduced social spending and no return to enlightened New Deal policies when they’re most needed. -在这一背景下，几乎没有救济正在拟议;在它最需要的，因此处于困境房主可以保持其财产;挣扎的家庭，以刺激需求;不是有毒的资产或基金巨头银行收购;什么纳赛尔阿兰在他的报告文章题为“纾困李暴露; ”的大银行不会借给他们的横财;的纽约时报记者乔经济学诺西拉证实一个员工只记录了JP摩根大通招待会担保; ，该银行将利用救助资金用于收购;杠杆收购;与公共资金;的资产在火灾销售价格;礼貌美国纳税人;进一步巩固;一个多代的传统;粉碎的竞争和发展的垄断;与两名总统候选人在船上;确保减少社会支出和没有返回新政开明的政策时，他们最需要的。

In Times of Crisis, Bring Out the Heavy Artillery 在发生危机的时候，带出了重型火炮

It’sa common tactic and the one used in 1929.这是一个共同的策略和一个用于在1929年。 Following Black Thursday (October 24), Black Monday (October 28) and Black Tuesday (October 29).继黑色星期四（ 10月24日） ，黑色星期一（ 10月28日）和黑色星期二（ 10月29日） 。 Popularly called the Great Crash of 1929.民选称为大崩盘的1929年。 After which the publication Variety headlined: “Wall Street Lays an Egg.” A much larger one than at first realized but serious enough for the establishment to get John D. Rockefeller to state (on Black Tuesday):之后，出版品种的标题： “华尔街层的蛋。 ”更大的一个比第一次实现了，但严重程度足以建立得到约翰D洛克菲勒国家（关于黑色星期二） ：

“Believing that fundamental conditions of the country are sound and that there is nothing in the business situation to warrant the destruction of values that has taken place on the exchanges during the past week, my son and I have for some days been purchasing sound common stocks.” Fast forward to the present. “相信这一基本国情是健全的，并没有任何的经营状况，值得破坏的价值观念已经发生的交流在过去的一周，我的儿子，我已经几天了购买健全普通股。 “快速前进到现在。 History is again repeating.历史再次重演。 At another crisis time.在另一场危机的时间。 No garden variety one.没有花园品种之一。 The most serious since the 1930s.最严重的20世纪30年代以来。 With investor and public confidence severely shaken.随着投资者和公众的信心严重动摇。 Enough for a repeat of Rockefeller’s bravado.足够的重复洛克菲勒的虚张声势。

Dire enough to get Warren Buffett to do what he rarely if ever does.可怕足以让巴菲特做他很少，如果以往任何时候都没有。 Pen an op-ed.勒庞的论坛版。 On October 16 in the New York Times . 10月16日在纽约时报。 To sound like John D. and say in spite of gloom and doom, he’s “buying American stocks.” To affirm his faith in “the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies.” To predict “most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.” At age 78, he may not be around to confront critics if he’s wrong.听起来像约翰说，尽管沮丧和悲观，他的“购买美国股票。 ”申明自己的信仰在“长期繁荣国家的许多健全的企业。 ”预测“最重要公司将制定新的利润记录的5年， 10年和20年内从现在开始。 “在78岁，他可能无法面对周围的批评，如果他的错。

On October 27, the Wall Street Journal took aim at him. 10月27日，华尔街日报瞄准他。 A very uncharacteristic gesture toward a large (and successful) investor.一个非常不寻常的姿态走向大（和成功）的投资者。 Let alone the most famous individual one and one of the richest.更不用说最有名的个别人，一个最富有的。 “Even the Oracle Didn’t Time It Perfectly” headlined the Journal . “即使是甲骨文没有时间完全” 杂志的标题。 His class A Berkshire Hathaway shares have taken a hit like most others year to date, but that’sa side issue for the Journal .他的A级伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股票已经采取了打击最喜欢别人今年迄今为止，但是这是一个枝节问题的杂志 。

It’s troubled because “the Oracle of Omaha failed to see how bad the market was going to get.” And he’s even exposed to credit default swaps (CDSs).它的困扰，因为“甲骨文的奥马哈没有看到有多糟糕的市场要得到。 ”他甚至暴露于信用违约互换（ CDSs ） 。 Increased his position to $8.8 billion from mid-2006-mid-2008.增加了他的立场，以88亿美元从2006年年中， 2008年年中。 Already took a $490 million loss in the first quarter.已经采取了4.9亿美元的损失在第一季度。 Another $136 million in the second, and likely much more unreported so far for the third and beyond.另1.36亿美元在第二，而且可能更迄今未为第三及以后。

These positions show he “was relatively comfortable about the prospects for US corporations and global stocks at a time when (other observers) were predicting a bust.” Maybe it’s “time for the Oracle to get a new crystal ball.”这表明他的立场“相对舒适的前景，美国跨国公司和全球股市的时候（其他观察员）预测的半身像。 ”也许是“时间的甲骨文公司获得一个新的水晶球。 ”

Warnings from Abroad 从国外发出的警告

Overseas comments differ greatly from more optimistic ones here.海外评论大不相同从更乐观的这里。 Germany’s finance minister, Peer Steinbruck, for example.德国财政部长施同侪，例如。 On October 26, the Financial Times reported his fears about global financial markets collapsing. 10月26日， 金融时报报导他担心全球金融市场的崩溃。 At least through 2009.至少到2009年。 He said: “The danger of a collapse is far from over.他说： “危险的崩溃还远远没有结束。 Any attempt to give the all clear would be wrong.”任何企图让所有明确的将是错误的。 “

His government committed $635 billion to rescue troubled banks.他的政府致力于六千三百五十点〇亿美元救援陷入困境的银行。 A “financial market stabilization fund.” With most of it in credit guarantees and a smaller portion to recapitalize banks and buy toxic assets.一个“金融市场的稳定基金。 ”由于大多数是在信贷担保和一个小部分，以资本银行和购买有毒的资产。 But unlike the Paulson plan, Germany won’t compel banks to take it and many so far haven’t.但不同的是保尔森的计划，德国将不会迫使银行采取它和许多迄今尚未。 For fear investors will punish them for admitting they’re in trouble and also over concerns that conditions imposed are too stringent.由于担心投资者会惩罚他们的承认，他们就有麻烦，也担心规定的条件太苛刻。 Steinbruck is working through this and said banks eschewing state aid are “irresponsible.”施正通过这一点，并表示，避免国有银行的援助是“不负责任的” 。

Leaders in Europe fear the financial crisis will tip the continent into serious recession.在欧洲领导人担心金融危机将冰山大陆陷入严重衰退。 And cause a currency meltdown in the East.并导致货币危机的地区。 Across former Soviet bloc nations.整个前苏联集团国家。 Testing currency pegs “on the fringes of Europe’s monetary union in a traumatic upheaval” reminiscent of the 1992 Exchange Rate Mechanism collapse.测试货币挂钩“的边缘欧洲货币联盟在动荡的创伤”想起1992年汇率机制崩溃。 Bank of New York strategist Neil Mellor called it “the biggest currency crisis the world has ever seen.”纽约银行的策略师Neil Mellor称为“最大的货币危机的世界从未见过。 ”

On October 26, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote about it in the UK Telegraph . 10月26日，安布罗斯埃文斯普里查德写它在英国的电报 。 He cites what experts fear.他引用专家们担心什么。 A “chain reaction within the eurozone itself.” A surge in capital flight from Austria.一个“链式反应欧元区内的本身。 ”一股资本外逃，分别来自奥地利。 The latest Bank of International Settlements data aren’t encouraging.最新的国际清算银行的数据并不令人鼓舞。 They show Western European banks in trouble.它们显示西欧银行的麻烦。 With the most exposure “to the emerging market bubble, now bursting with spectacular effect.”最暴露“在新兴市场的泡沫，现在与壮观的爆破效果。 ”

The amount involved is huge.涉及的金额是巨大的。 Around three-fourths of “the total $4.7 trillion in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia.” Much greater than America’s subprime lending.大约四分之三的“总4700000000000美元跨境银行贷款到东欧，拉丁美洲和亚洲新兴市场。 ”远远大于美国的次级抵押贷款。 Iceland was at the leading edge of the problem.冰岛是前沿的问题。 Hungary and other states may follow.匈牙利和其他国家可能会采取后续。 In a Paul Krugman New York Times op-ed, he discussed currency crises and said he “never anticipated anything like what’s happening now.”在保罗克鲁格曼纽约时报论坛版，他讨论了货币危机，并说他“从来没有像预期的任何发生的事情了。 ”

He cited Morgan Stanley’s chief currency strategist Stephen Jen (his former student) saying since Lehman’s demise, we’ve seen world emerging market currency crises.他引用摩根士丹利的首席货币策略师任永力（他的前学生）说，因为雷曼兄弟的消亡，我们看到的世界新兴市场的货币危机。 “So far, the US financial sector has been (at) the epicentre of the global crisis. “到目前为止，美国的金融部门已（在）的中心的全球性危机。 I fear that a hard landing in EM assets and economies (unfolding in Europe) will become the second epicentre in the coming months, with very damaging feedback effects on the developed world.”我担心的是，硬着陆电磁资产和经济体（展现在欧洲）将成为第二震中在今后几个月中，非常有害的反馈意见对发达世界的。 “

Already Austria, Hungary, Ukraine, Serbia, Belarus “queuing up for” IMF rescue packages.已奥地利，匈牙利，乌克兰，塞尔维亚，白俄罗斯“排队”国际货币基金组织救援一揽子计划。 Jumping from the frying pan into the fire unless they can arrange no-strings loans.跳跃从煎锅到火灾，除非他们可以安排无弦贷款。 Given the gravity of the crisis and danger of its contagion, maybe so or at least escape the worst type IMF demands.鉴于严重的危机和危险的传染也许这样或至少是最严重的逃避型国际货币基金组织的要求。 They’ve swallowed enough neoliberalism already.他们已经吞噬了足够的新自由主义。 It exacerbates their dire condition.这加剧了他们的悲惨状况。

Europe is now reeling under stress.欧洲现在是缫丝压力之下。 Heavily pressured by emerging market debt.沉重压力，新兴市场债务。 The Eastern bloc borrowed heavily in dollars, euros and Swiss francs.东方集团借来大量的美元，欧元和瑞士法郎。 Some in Hungary and Latvia in Yen.一些在匈牙利和拉脱维亚在日元。 An unpublished 2006 IMF report warned about their most dangerous excesses in the world.一个未发表的2006年国际货币基金组织的报告警告说他们最危险的暴行在世界上。 Nothing was done to curb them, and finally its authors “had their moment of vindication as Eastern Europe went haywire.” It hit Hungary, Romania and put Russia “in the eye of the storm, despite its energy wealth.什么做的目的是制止他们，并最终其作者“他们时刻维护东欧失控了。 ”创下匈牙利，罗马尼亚和俄罗斯提出“在风暴中心，尽管其能源财富。 The cost of insuring Russian sovereign debt (through CDSs) surged to 1200 basis points last week.” More than Iceland “before Gotterdammerung struck Reykjavik.”成本投保俄罗斯的主权债务（通过CDSs ）飙升到1200点上周。 “超过冰岛”之前Gotterdammerung击中雷克雅未克。 “

With oil prices plunging, markets no longer believe that Russian state spending is viable, and the fear is that peripheral contagion will invade the eurozone’s core.由于油价下跌，市场不再认为，俄罗斯国家支出是可行的，而且令人担心的是，周围蔓延将入侵欧元区的核心。 Yield spreads between German and Italian 10-year bonds are being watched.之间的利差德国和意大利的10年期国债正在观看。 “They reached a post-EMU (European Economic and Monetary Union)” high of 93 in late October. “他们到达后欧洲货币联盟（欧洲经济和货币联盟） ”高93在10月下旬。 No one knows the “snapping point” but it’s feared that anything above 100 is cause for alarm.没有人知道“结束点” ，但它担心，任何高于100是令人震惊。

BNP Paribas’ chief currency strategist Hans Redeker cites “an imminent danger that East Europe’s currency pegs will be smashed unless EU authorities wake up to the full gravity of the threat, and that in turn will trigger a dangerous crisis for EMU itself.”法国巴黎银行的首席货币策略师汉斯雷德克引用“迫在眉睫的危险，东欧的货币挂钩将瓦解，除非欧盟当局唤醒充分严重性的威胁，这反过来会导致危险的危机，欧洲经济与货币联盟本身。 ”

“The system is paralyzed,” he said, “and starting to look like Black Wednesday 1992.” He fears a very deflationary effect across Western Europe. “该系统瘫痪， ”他说， “并开始看起来像黑色星期三1992年。 ”他非常担心通货紧缩的影响西欧。 One “almost guaranteed” to implode the euroland money supply.其中“几乎是保障”的内爆欧元区货币供应量。 As for UK banks, they’re lightly exposed to the former Soviet bloc.至于英国的银行，他们轻易接触到前苏联集团。 But not to emerging Asia.但没有亚洲新兴市场。 In the amount of $329 billion.数额三千二百九十〇万点零零万美元。 Almost as much and America and Japan combined.几乎同样多的美国和日本的总和。 Evan-Pritchard concludes with a sobering note for his UK readers.埃文-普里查德最后清醒地注意到他的英国读者。 “Whether you realise it or not, your pension fund is sunk in Vietnamese bonds and loans to Indian steel magnates.” Like for many other investments, that money’s safety is far from secure. “无论你意识到与否，您的养老基金是在越南沉没的债券和贷款，以印度钢铁巨头。 ”如同许多其他的投资，这些钱的安全是远远达不到安全。

Neither is Britain according to a Mail online October 27 article headlined: The country “may need 0% interest rate to avoid a depression, leading economist warns.” He’s Charles Goodhart.无论是英国根据邮件在线10月27日的文章标题：国家“可能需要0 ％的利率，以避免抑郁，著名经济学家警告说。 ”他是查尔斯古德哈特。 A founding member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).一个创始会员国的英国央行货币政策委员会（ MPC ） 。 Now a professor emeritus of banking and finance at the London School of Economics.现在名誉教授银行业和金融业在英国伦敦经济学院。

He told Channel 4’s Dispatches program: “Interest rates will go down from now, by how far and how fast nobody knows.他告诉4频道的派遣计划： “利率将下降从现在开始，通过多远和多快的速度没人知道。 They could go to zero” like in Japan.他们可以去零“就像在日本。 And may have to.并可能。 Yet other experts warn that at this stage big cuts are “too little, too late” because the country already faces a long severe recession.然而，其他专家警告说，在这一阶段大幅削减是“太少，太晚” ，因为该国已面临着长期严重的经济衰退。

On October 29, more confirmation from a UK Independent article headlined: “Repossessions soar by 70 per cent as joblessness rises.” From new Financial Services Authority figures. 10月29日，更多的确认从英国独立的文章标题： “收回飙升百分之七十的失业率上升。 ”从新的金融服务管理局的数字。 Some 11,054 second quarter foreclosures.一些一一零五四秒季度赎回。 Up from under 6500 last year.根据从6500去年。 Numbers expected to keep rising, and new Land Registry data revealed continuing house price declines.数预计将持续上涨，新的土地注册处的数据显示房屋价格继续下降。 Around 8% in the past 12 months. 8 ％左右，在过去12个月。

A gloomy picture, according to Howard Archer.一个阴郁的图片，根据霍华德阿彻。 Global Insight’s chief UK economist. Global Insight的首席英国经济学家。 In his view, “The fundamentals continue to be largely stacked against the housing market, and it seems odds-on that prices will fall considerably further.” Especially given “accelerating unemployment set to pick up significantly… recession (and) wages (held) down.” Add to this a 167% rise in calls to the housing charity Shelter helpline.他认为， “基本面继续在很大程度上堆叠对房地产市场，似乎赔率上，价格将进一步下降很大。 ”特别是考虑“加速失业率将拿起显着衰退... （和）工资（举行）下来。 “添加到这是一个167 ％的涨幅呼吁住房慈善住房求助。 Its chief executive, Adam Sampson, said: “These figures are not only shocking and worse than expected, they highlight the crippling severity of the credit crunch on ordinary homeowners.” It’s hit Britain especially hard, but economic woes are little different throughout the continent.该公司首席执行官亚当桑普森说： “这些数字不仅令人震惊，不如预期，但是，它们突出了瘫痪严重的信贷紧缩对普通住宅。 ”这是英国打击尤其严重，但经济困难的是各地略有不同大陆。

In Japan as well after the benchmark Nikkei index hit a 26 year low and a scant 18% of its 1989 high.在日本以及在基准日经指数跌至26年来的最低水平和很少有18 ％的1989年高。 Despite a few days of rebound, it made front page (October 28) Wall Street Journal news in an article headlined: “Crisis Deals New Blow to Japan” in a feature story about the nation’s largest bank.尽管几天的反弹，它在头版（ 10月28日） 华尔街日报消息，一篇文章的标题： “危机特价新的打击日本”的一个特点讲述全美最大的银行。 Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.三菱UFJ金融集团。 On October 27, it said it would raise $10.7 billion in new capital. 10月27日，该公司表示，将提高107亿美元新资本。 The result of its own vulnerabilities and Japan’s economic turmoil.由于其自身的弱点和日本的经济动荡。 According to Kristine Li of Tokyo’s KBC Securities: Mitsubishi’s announcement was a “big blow” to investors’ confidence.据克里斯李东京KBC证券：三菱商事宣布是一个“重大打击” ，以投资者的信心。 Its share price reflected it.其股票价格反映了它。 Plunging 15% on October 27.下降15 ％ ， 10月27日。 Other banks hit as well.其他银行也击中。 Major ones.主要的。 They, too, need more capital and will have to raise it from investors.他们也需要更多的资本，将不得不提高它从投资者。

Some in Tokyo believe the country can do little to reverse the downward trend.在东京的一些国家认为可以做什么来扭转下降的趋势。 According to Credit Suisse’s Toyko-based chief equity strategist, Shinichi Ichikawa, “The Japanese government alone can’t fix” the nation’s export woes or the deepening global crisis.据瑞士信贷银行东京首席证券分析师，市川真一， “日本政府不能单独解决”国家的出口困境或加深全球性危机。 “The factors hurting the market are beyond Japan’s control.” “伤害的因素，市场超出日本的控制。 ”

The Financial Times paints a similar picture. 金融时报描绘了一个类似的图片。 The Nikkei down 53% through late October and has “the dubious honour of having been the worst performing leading developed country market last year.” The current crisis hit Japan in several ways.日经指数下跌53 ％ ， 10月下旬通过了“可疑荣幸地被表现最差的主要发达国家的市场去年。 ”目前的危机袭击日本在几个方面。 Its banking and financial sectors “in spite of having relatively less exposure to toxic assets.” Nonetheless, investors worry about their underlying strength or lack of it.它的银行和金融部门“尽管有相对较少接触有毒的资产。 ”尽管如此，投资者担心自己的潜在力量或缺乏。

Japan is heavily export dependent.日本是严重依赖出口。 For most of its economic growth and health.对于大多数的经济增长和健康。 It’s hurt by a surging Yen.它伤害了日元上涨。 At a 13 year high against the dollar.在13年新高对美元的汇率。 In addition, hedge funds and foreign investors are bailing out.此外，对冲基金和外国投资者脱困了。 The way they’re doing everywhere, but it’s hurting Japan more than most because it relies so heavily on outside capital.他们的方式正在世界各地，但它的伤害超过日本，因为它是如此严重依赖外部资本。

So does China in the form of foreign investment that doesn’t affect how it manages its banks.那么，中国形式的外国投资并不影响它如何管理银行。 At least in what they can invest in non-Chinese securities.至少在他们可以投资于非中国证券。 Very little and why the government is spending nothing to bail them out.很少，为什么政府开支没有保释他们。 There’s no need because they own scant amounts of toxic assets and use their own to fuel internal growth.没有必要，因为他们自己很少量的有毒资产和使用他们自己的燃料内部增长。 What China needs badly for its large and growing population.中国需要什么严重的大国和人口不断增加。

It’s not insulated from the global crisis and will feel it in slower growth.这不是免受全球性危机，并认为这在经济增长放缓。 Still expected to be impressively high although certain to drop from its 9.9% in the first nine months of 2008.不过预计将令人印象深刻的高虽然某些下降从9.9 ％ ，前9个月的2008年。 Down from 12% last year.低于12 ％ ，去年同期。 Amidst a deepening global slump.烟雨深化全球衰退。 It’s helped by strong domestic demand and its exports.这得益于强劲的国内需求和出口。 Up an impressive 21.5% over last year.一个令人印象深刻的21.5 ％ ，比去年同期。 Heavily to Asia to make up for slumping Western demand.重到亚洲，以弥补西方需求低迷。

It’s affected China’s toy manufacturers.这是影响中国的玩具制造商。 China’s customs agency reported that 52.7% of them shut down in the first seven months of 2008.中国的海关机构的报告说， 52.7 ％ ，其中关闭前7个月， 2008年。 Mass layoffs resulted.导致大规模裁员。 Other industries are also affected.其他行业也受到了影响。 Textiles, shoes, clothing, home appliances and electronics because of slumping Western markets.纺织品，鞋类，服装，家电和电子产品，因为西方市场的低迷。 Millions of workers are at risk and why China announced an economic stimulus plan to keep growth as high as possible.数以百万计的工人处于危险之中，为什么中国宣布了一项刺激经济计划继续增长尽可能高。 A targeted minimum 8%.有针对性的最低8 ％ 。 If achieved will be impressive by any standard.如果将取得的令人印象深刻的任何标准。

A potential glimmer of light amidst a dismal global outlook with China determined to keep it that way although there’s no assurance it can.一个潜在的一线希望轻一片暗淡全球经济前景与中国决心继续保持这种方式虽然没有保证它可以。 The reason its stock market slumped like most others.其原因股市下跌最喜欢别人。 However, it may rebound sooner given the government’s commitment to big infrastructure spending increases.然而，它可能反弹越快鉴于政府的承诺，大基础设施方面的支出增加。 With its “embarrassment of riches” according to The Economist .凭借其“尴尬财富”根据经济学家 。 Growing “at a staggering rate” says its Intelligence Unit.生长在“惊人的速度”说，情报单位。 Its huge $1.75 trillion in foreign currency reserves.其巨大的一七五〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇美元外汇储备。 Likely to top $2 trillion by yearend.可能顶端2万亿美元年底。 That can be used for roads, airports, nuclear power plants, hydro power stations, and more.可用于道路，机场，核电厂，水电站等。 To create new jobs for laid off workers.为了创造新的就业机会的下岗职工。 As many as possible.尽可能多。 What America should do to stimulate growth.什么美国应该做的，以刺激经济增长。 Not commit billions for corporate acquisitions.不承诺数十亿的企业收购。 Bailouts that won’t work.金援，将无法工作。 That will harm the economy, not heal it.这将损害美国经济，而不是治愈它。 The reason even in today’s climate China’s star is rising.原因即使在今天的气候中国的明星正在上升。 In the US, it’s growing dim.在美国，它的增长暗淡。

The Worst Is Yet to Come 最糟糕的还在后头

According to economist Nouriel Roubini.据经济学家努里尔•鲁比尼。 Called Dr. Doom for his gloomy views that today command worldwide respect.所谓的末日博士，他悲观的看法，今天指挥全世界的尊重。 Opinions once dismissed now widely sought.意见再次驳回现在普遍要求。 He believes recession began in early 2008.他认为，经济衰退开始于2008年初。 Will last throughout 2009.将持续整个2009年。 Will be severe and painful with GDP contracting 4-5%.将是严重的和痛苦的国内生产总值订约4-5 ％ 。 On October 29, he told Bloomberg : “We’re entering a vicious circle where economies are spinning down, financial markets are spinning lower, and policy makers in my view — and that’s my biggest fear — have lost control of what’s going on in the financial markets.” 10月29日，他告诉彭博 ： “我们正进入一个恶性循环的经济纺纱下跌，金融市场的纺纱较低，决策者在我看来-这是我最大的恐惧-已经失去了控制什么正在进行中的金融市场。 “

In London in late October, he predicted that hundreds of hedge funds will close down and given the extent of panic selling markets may have to suspend trading.在伦敦10月下旬，他预测，数以百计的对冲基金将关闭，并给予程度的恐慌性抛售的市场可能暂停交易。 Perhaps for a week or more before resuming.也许一个星期或更长时间才能恢复。 In September, Russia’s stock exchanges shut down after their steepest ever one day fall.今年9月，俄罗斯股票交易所关闭后，其最大以往任何时候都一天下降。 They did again in late October after falling nearly as much.他们又在10月下旬下降近多。 Perhaps Wall Street is next.也许是华尔街未来。 Maybe Europe.也许欧洲。

If the latest (October 28 reported) consumer confidence report is an indication, it may happen sooner, not later.如果最新（ 10月28日报道）消费者信心指数报告表明，它可能很快就结婚，不晚。 It was dismal by any standard.这是令人沮丧的任何标准。 From the Conference Board.从会议局。 An all-time low and far below expectations.全期低，远低于市场预期。 Surveyed economists forecast a reading of 52.调查的经济学家预计该指数为52 。 It came in woefully short at 38 from an upwardly revised 61.4 September figure.它排在远远短于38向上修正61.4 9月的数字。 Results were “significantly more pessimistic” on future business prospects and jobs.结果是“显着更为悲观”对未来商业前景和就业机会。 It signals trouble if translated into spending that, in turn, means lower profits and share prices already crushed over the past 12 months.它的信号故障，如果转化为消费，反过来，这意味着更低的利润和股票价格已经粉碎在过去12个月。 With no end of pain in sight.由于没有疼痛结束的迹象。

Yet markets remain volatile because of heavy insider manipulation for big profits up or down.然而，市场仍然不稳定，因为沉重的内幕操纵大利润上升或下降。 The “not-so-invisible hand” working its magic.在“不那么看不见的手”的神奇的工作。 Killing the “free-market” according to author Ellen Brown.杀的“自由市场”根据布朗的作者海伦。 Making it hazardous for ordinary investors to risk anything in this climate.使危险的普通投资者的风险任何在这种气候。 Casino capitalism with the odds heavily favoring the house.赌场资本主义的可能性严重偏袒房子。 Getting Brown to quote a talk show commentator saying: “I’m fully diversified; some under the mattress; some under the floor boards; and some in the backyard.” Better that than lose everything.乘车布朗引用脱口秀节目的评论员说： “我充分多样化;一些床垫下，一些在地板;和一些在后院。 ”更好比失去一切。

Because world economies are “at a breaking point” according to Roubini.由于世界经济是“在一个突破点”根据鲁比尼。 “Essentially in free fall (and near) sheer panic.” Played out in markets that reflect future expectations. “主要是在自由降落（附近）纯粹的恐慌。 ”起了市场，反映未来的期望。 Despite relief rallies, very much pointing down and signaling no end of crisis in sight.尽管救灾集会，非常指着信号，并没有结束危机的迹象。 It got Roubini to state:它被认为是鲁比尼指出：

“Every time there has been a severe crisis in the last six months, people have said this is the catastrophic event that signals the bottom.” Every time so far they were wrong. “每当出现了严重的危机在过去6个月中，人们说，这是灾难性的事件，信号的底部。 ”每一次迄今为止，他们错了。 “They said it after Bear Stearns, after Fannie and Freddie, after AIG, and after” the $700 billion bailout plan. “他们说，在贝尔斯登之后， Fannie和Freddie后，美国国际集团，并在” 7,000亿美元援助计划。 “Each time they have called the bottom, and the bottom has not been reached.” “每一次，他们所谓的底部，而且底部还没有实现。 ”

Despite everything world governments throw at their problems, Roubini thinks investors no longer trust them or believe they’ll do the right things.尽管世界各国政府都扔在他们的问题，鲁比尼认为，投资者不再信任他们，或者认为他们会做正确的事情。 For good reason.有原因的。 Because so far they haven’t and what they’re now doing is mostly woefully misdirected and inadequate.因为到目前为止还没有和他们现在这样做主要是可悲的错误和不足。 “Even using the nuclear option of guaranteeing everything, providing unlimited liquidity, nationalising the banks, making clear that nobody of importance is going to fail, even that has not helped.” Economic fundamentals no longer apply. “即使使用核武器的选择，保证一切，提供了无限的流动资金，银行国有化，清楚地表明，任何人的重要的是要失败，甚至认为没有帮助。 ”经济基本面已经不再适用。 “We are reaching a breaking point frankly.” “我们正在达成一项突破点坦率。 ”

From his Hong Kong base, long-time investment advisor and fund manager Marc Faber publishes the “Gloom Boom and Doom” report.从他的香港基地，长期的投资顾问和基金经理马克费伯出版的“股市繁荣与毁灭”的报告。 On how he views economic and financial prospects and investment opportunities worldwide.论如何，他认为经济和金融前景和投资机会，世界各地。 Given today’s climate, he’s more than ever in demand and shows up often in the financial press and on business channels like Bloomberg and CNBC.由于今天的气候，他比以往任何时候更加的需求和经常出现的金融新闻和商业渠道，像彭博和CNBC电视频道。 But not with good cheer.但是，并非具有良好的喝彩声。

He thinks that government interventions may be partially responsible for world market selloffs.他认为，政府干预可能是部分负责世界市场的抛售。 Not least because in the current climate guaranteeing bank deposits leaves investors with no incentive to take risks.这不仅是因为在当前的气候，保证银行存款叶投资者没有动力承担风险。 And other measures have been counterproductive as well.和其他措施，已经适得其反的。 “They have increased volatility. “他们有更多的波动。 It’s impossible to forecast market movements when you have interventions.”这是不可能预测市场走势时，你的干预。 “

Downward readjustments of company book values may be next in his view as happened in previous bear markets.向下调整，公司帐面价值可能是下一个他认为是发生在以前的熊市。 That revealed overstated estimates.这表明夸大的估计。 “If the global economy slows down as much as I think,” he said, “then a lot of book values will have to be adjusted downward quite substantially.” And rate cuts will create their own headache. “如果全球经济减速多达我想， ”他说， “然后大量的帐面价值将不得不向下调整了相当大的。 ”和降息将创建自己的头痛。 “I think first we’ll have a bout of deflation that will actually be quite substantial, but then the budget deficits will go through the roof and the Fed will print even more money (so that) later on we’ll have very high inflation.” “我想，首先我们会一波通缩，实际上将相当可观，但预算赤字将通过屋顶和美联储将印刷更多的钱（使）以后我们会非常高通胀“ 。

Morgan Stanley (”perennial bear”) economist and chairman of the company’s Asia operations Stephen Roach was extremely critical of Fed policy in an October 27 Financial Times op-ed titled: “Add ‘financial stability’ to the Fed’s mandate.” He called “the era of excess as much about policy blunders and regulatory negligence as about mistakes by financial institutions.” We need a new system and new role for the Fed in his judgment.摩根士丹利（ “常年承担” ）董事长经济学家和该公司的亚洲业务史蒂芬罗奇是极其关键的美联储政策， 10月27日金融时报论坛版标题： “购买'金融稳定'的美联储的任务。 “他所谓的”过剩时代的大约多的政策失误和管理疏忽的错误的金融机构。 “我们需要一个新系统和新的作用，美联储在他的判断。 Explicitly to reference “financial stability.”明确提到“金融的稳定。 ”

Something critically needed for a “post-bubble, crisis-torn US economy.” To make the Fed “tougher in its neglected regulatory oversight capacity.” To counter “bubble denialists (like) Alan Greenspan.” To mandate Fed policy “err on the side of caution.” To expose the “fatal mistake” in trusting “ideology” over “objective metrics.一些急需的“后泡沫，危机摧残的美国经济。 ”为了使美联储“强硬在其被忽视的监管能力。 ”为了对付“泡沫denialists （像）格林斯潘。 ”授权美联储的政策“过于一边小心。 “揭露”致命的错误“ ，相信”意识形态“的”客观指标。 Like all crises, this one is a wake-up call.像所有的危机，这是一个敲响了警钟。 The Fed made policy blunders of historic proportions that must be avoided in the future.”美联储政策的失误取得历史性的，必须避免在未来。 “

However, dealing with today’s crisis requires an even bigger international rescue according to Roubini.然而，今天处理的危机，需要一个更大的国际救援根据鲁比尼。 And whatever’s done, America faces “year(s) of economic stagnation.” After a deep protracted downturn.不论做，美国面临的“一年（ s ）的经济停滞。 ”经过长期低迷深。 If as true as he forecasts, it signals the end of prosperity.如果真正因为他的预测，它标志着结束的繁荣。 A new age of austerity and world economies in extreme disrepair and needing an alternative model in lieu of a clearly failed one.一个新时代的紧缩和世界经济在极端失修，需要另一种模式代替显然未能之一。 Hugely corrupted as well.巨大损坏的。

Will world leaders seize the challenge and act?世界各国领导人将抓住这一挑战，并采取行动？ Only if mass outrage demands it and even then change at best may be minimalist and short-lived.只有当群众的愤怒，并要求即使在那时最好的变化可能是最低限度的和短命的。 If history is a guide.如果历史是一个指导。 What better time to prove history wrong.还有什么更好的时间来证明历史上是错误的。 If not now, when?如果不是现在，更待何时？ If not by us, who?如果不是我们，是谁？ If not soon, maybe never.如果不是很快，也许从来没有过。 If that’s not incentive enough, what is?如果没有足够的激励，是什么？

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