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Monday, October 6th, 2008 星期一，二○○八年十月六日

By Tom Engelhardt湯姆恩格爾哈特

The year is 2010 and, yes, Saddam Hussein is gone and there are no American troops in Iraq, but, as the report suggests, “the challenge will be to see whether a modern, secular successor government emerges that does not threaten its neighbors” — especially since those dogged Iraqis are back at work on their nuclear weapons program. 這一年是2010年，是的，薩達姆侯賽因消失，而且沒有美國軍隊在伊拉克，但是，該報告建議， “所面臨的挑戰將是查看是否有現代的，世俗的繼任者出現了政府不會威脅其鄰國” -尤其是因為這些困擾伊拉克人正在恢復工作其核武器計劃。 Meanwhile, the national security agenda of American policymakers, who face no conventional military challenges, is dominated by five questions: “whether to intervene, when, with whom, with what tools, and to what end?” 與此同時，國家安全議程的美國的決策者，沒有誰面對傳統的軍事挑戰，主要是五個問題： “是否介入，何時，與誰，與什麼工具，以及什麼目的呢？ ”

Surveying the world in 2010, we find a Russia irredeemably in economic decline, a China beset by too many internal problems to hope for military dominance in Asia, and a North Korea so transformed that military tensions have vanished from the Korean peninsula (along, evidently, with the North Korean nuclear program).測繪世界在2010年，我們找到一個在俄羅斯造成不可挽回的經濟衰退，一個困擾中國太多的內部問題，希望軍事優勢在亞洲，朝鮮，使轉化的軍事緊張局勢已經消失，從朝鮮半島（沿，顯然與北朝鮮的核計劃） 。 Oh, and those food riots that swept the globe recently, they never happened.哦，這些食物暴動，橫掃全球最近，他們從來沒有發生過。 After all, it’s well known that food production has kept up with population pressures, and energy production has been more than a match for global energy needs.畢竟，這是眾所周知，糧食生產一直保持了人口壓力，和能源生產已經超過一場比賽對全球的能源需求。 As for global warming?隨著全球氣候變暖的？ Never heard of it.從來沒有聽說過它。 On the bright side, the key to the future is “international cooperation,” led, of course, by us truly.從好的方面來看，未來的關鍵是“國際合作” ，領導當然，我們真正。

An alternate universe from a missing Star Trek episode or that new sci-fi novel you haven’t read yet?候補從宇宙星際旅行失踪事件，或新的科幻小說你有沒有看過嗎？ Not quite.不大。 Thanks to the best brains in the many由於最好的大腦中的許多 agencies機構 that make up the US Intelligence Community or IC, it’s been possible for me to venture into the future, just as our own world is being shaken to its roots — into the years 2010 and 2015, to be exact.這彌補了美國情報界或IC ，這可能對我來說，合資公司的未來，就像我們自己的世界正在動搖其根源-年到2 010年和2 015年，以確切。

There, surprisingly enough, life is relatively calm and the United States remains the preeminent Power of Powers.在那裡，令人吃驚的是，生活相對平靜和美國仍然是傑出的國國。 There, you aren’t likely to hear the words “deep recession” or “depression” on anyone’s lips.在這裡，你可能不會聽到的話“嚴重衰退”或“抑鬱症”的人的嘴唇。

In that far perkier future our intelligence analysts sent me to, you can exist forever and there will never be those four jets, box cutters, and 19 hijackers.在這遠遠perkier將來，我們情報分析員寄給我，您可以永遠存在，並有將永遠上述四架，框切割機，以及19名劫機者。 The Bush administration will never barge into the world “unilaterally.” The US will not be renowned for torture techniques or an offshore secret prison system of injustice, and nothing will contravene then-Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Ben Bernanke’s 2005布什政府決不會駁船融入世界“單方面行動。 ”美國不會被著名的酷刑技術或海外秘密監獄系統的不公正，而不是會違反當時的理事會主席經濟顧問貝南克2005年 assessment估價 that soaring housing prices were due to “strong economic fundamentals.”認為房價飆升的原因是“穩固的經濟基礎。 ”

In neither 2010 nor 2015 will anyone have heard of the collapse of Lehman Brothers or the giant insurance company AIG In neither year will newspapers have headlines like在2010年也沒有到2015年將任何人聽說過崩潰的雷曼兄弟公司或大的保險公司AIG在今年都將報紙的標題一樣 “Worst Crisis Since ’30s, With No End Yet in Sight.” “最嚴重的危機以來'30s ，沒有完然而，在視線。 ” In neither will anyone know that the US invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, conducting two bankrupting wars that refused to end.在沒有將任何人都知道，美國入侵阿富汗和伊拉克，舉辦了兩次破產戰爭，拒絕結束。

Think of it as the blandest, tidiest, least-likely-to-occur future around.把它作為blandest ，整潔，最有可能對周圍發生的未來。 And it was even paid for with your tax dollars.而且即使支付的與您的稅務美元。

Planting the Stars and Stripes in Future Soil 種植星條旗在未來的土壤

In a world where shock has repeatedly been the name of the game, where tall towers fall in clouds of toxic ash, investment houses disappear in the blink of an eye, and a black man is the Democratic Party’s candidate for president of the United States, the American intelligence community has been straining to imagine a future without surprises or discontinuities.在這樣一個世界上休克一再名稱的遊戲，其中塔身高下降的雲彩有毒粉煤灰，投資房屋消失在一眨眼的工夫，以及黑人是民主黨的總統候選人聯合國國，美國情報界一直緊張想像未來沒有驚喜或間斷。 As its experts summed the matter up in 1997, “Genuine discontinuities — sharp nonevolutionary breaks with the past — are rare, and our focus is on evolutionary change.”正如專家總結了這個問題在1997年， “真正的不連續性-急劇n onevolutionary打破了過去-是罕見的，我們的重點是進化改變。”

Lucky is the country that didn’t bet its foreign policy on that bit of intelligence wisdom.幸運的是該國沒有賭其外交政策上的一些情報的智慧。 Of course, in the long decade of hubris, from the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991 (something American intelligence neither predicted nor expected) to the moment American troops entered Baghdad in April 2003, it seemed obvious enough in Washington that a generational Pax Americana was settling over the world.當然，在長期的傲慢十年，從蘇聯解體的1991年（一些美國情報機構也都預測預計） ，以目前美國軍隊進入巴格達在2003年4月，似乎不夠明顯在華盛頓說， 美國治下的和平世代為解決世界各地。

As a result, the futures the IC’s analysts produced back then were remarkable mainly for their inability to imagine what was stirring under the surface of the obvious.因此，期貨的集成電路生產分析師當時是了不起的主要是他們無法想像什麼是下攪拌表面的明顯。 As a result, when you visit those futures, you’re not likely to have the urge to throw away your Arthur Clark or Isaac Asimov or Philip Dick or William Gibson classics.因此，當你訪問這些期貨，你可能不會有敦促扔掉你的阿瑟克拉克或艾薩克阿西莫夫或菲利浦迪克或威廉吉布森經典之作。 But maybe you’ll still be curious, as I was, to know what that “community’s” top minds missed when they peered ahead.但是，也許您仍然好奇，因為我，知道什麼是“社會的”高級頭腦錯過當他們盯著前面。 Think of it as a window into the limits of our intelligence services when they tried to grasp the real nature of US power by forecasting the future.把它作為一個窗口，限制我們的情報部門當他們試圖掌握真實性質的美國權力的預測未來。

What’s strange is that the distant future was once the province of utopian or dystopian thinkers, pulp fiction writers, oddballs, visionaries, even outright nuts, but not government intelligence services.有什麼奇怪的是，遙遠的未來曾經是省或dystopian烏托邦式的思想家，紙漿小說作家， oddballs ，幻想，甚至直接堅果，但不是政府的情報服務。 Peering into it was, at its best, a movingly strange individual adventure of the imagination, whether you were reading Edward Bellamy or Charlotte Perkins Gilman, Yevgeny Zamyatin or HG Wells, George Orwell or Aldous Huxley.直到這是在其最好的，一個奇怪的感人個人冒險的想像力，無論你是讀愛德華貝拉米或夏洛特帕金斯吉爾曼，普里馬科夫扎米亞京或韋爾斯，喬治奧威爾或赫胥黎。 That was, of course, before the Pentagon and allied outfits began這是，當然，在五角大樓和盟軍裝備開始 planning規劃 for the weaponry of 2020, 2035, and 2050; before war turned nuclear and so, with the exception of two cities in 1945, could only be “fought” in think tanks via futuristic scenario writing; before在武器裝備到2020年， 2035年，和2050年;面前變成核戰爭，因此，除這兩個城市在1945年，只能是“打”的智囊團未來的設想通過書面形式;之前 names like名稱，如 Complex 2030, Vision 2020, UAV [Unmanned Aerial Vehicle] Roadmap 2030 were regularly affixed to government programs.複雜的2030年， 2020年遠景規劃，無人機[無人機] 2030年路線圖，定期向政府追究程序。 In fact, the US government has been planting the Stars and Stripes deep in territory previous left to sci-fi dreamers for quite a while.事實上，美國政府一直種植星條旗深領土以往留給科幻夢想家的相當長的一段時間。

In the process, regularly analyzing the distant future has become almost as much the duty of the 18 agencies of the US Intelligence Community as doing National Intelligence Estimates on Iran.在這個過程中，定期分析遙遠的未來已成為幾乎同樣多的責任機構18日美國情報界因為這樣國家情報評估伊朗。 Ever since the 1990s, they have been hard at work preparing committee-made futures that simply won’t happen.自20世紀90年代，他們一直在努力工作委員會編寫了期貨，只是不會發生。 To judge by their work, they are a community of seers without sizzle, and yet the next of their fantasy futures, for the distant year 2025, is about to be made public.要判斷他們的工作，他們是一個社會的預言家不嘯，但未來的幻想期貨，對於遙遠的2025年，即將公開。

Predicting America’s Diminishing Power 預測美國的力量削弱

Every few years the每隔幾年的 National Intelligence Council國家情報委員會 (NIC) is mandated to provide “‘over the horizon’ estimates of broader trends at work in the world.” Just in case you’ve never heard of the NIC, it describes itself as “a center of strategic thinking within the US Government, reporting to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and providing the President and senior policymakers with analyses of foreign policy issues that have been reviewed and coordinated throughout the Intelligence Community.” （網卡）的任務是提供“超視距預期的更廣泛的趨勢在工作中的世界。 ”就在你從未聽過的網卡，它自稱為“一個中心，戰略思維的美國政府，向國家情報局局長（情報局局長） ，並提供總統和高級決策者與分析的外交政策問題，進行了審查和協調整個情報共同體“ 。

Sometime in the 1990s, its analysts embarked on a project, released in 1997, called Global Trends 2010, a best-guesstimate about the nature of our world 13 years hence.有時在上世紀90年代，其分析師展開了一個項目，於1997年獲釋，所謂的全球趨勢2010年，最好的猜測的性質，我們的世界因此， 13年。 In 2000, Global Trends (GT) 2015 came out, followed in 2004 by GT 2020.在2000年，全球趨勢（燃氣輪機） 2015年出來，隨後在2004年燃氣輪機2020年。

As the 2020 project proudly described the process, the IC “consulted experts from around the world in a series of regional conferences to offer a truly global perspective.作為2020年項目自豪地描述這個過程中，機構或社區“徵求來自世界各地的專家在一系列區域會議，以提供一個真正的全球性的觀點。 We organized conferences on five continents to solicit the views of foreign experts…” In other words, no prospective stone was left prospectively unturned to keep top US policymakers up to speed.我們舉辦的會議上5大洲徵求外國專家... “換句話說，沒有未來的石頭離開前瞻性竭盡全力使美國的決策者加速。

Recently, this最近，這個 Washington Post華盛頓郵報 headline caught my eye: “Reduced Dominance Is Predicted for US” As the Post’s Joby Warrick and Walter Pincus noted, the latest of the NIC’s reports, Global Trends 2025 , due out this December, was previewed in a speech by Thomas Fingar, “the US intelligence community’s top analyst.” Officially, he’s the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis as well as the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council.標題引起了我的眼睛： “減少的優勢，預計美國”作為郵政的 Joby瓦里克和沃爾特平卡斯指出，最新的網絡信息中心的報告， 2025年全球趨勢 ，預計今年12月，是預先在一次講話中托馬斯芬格， “美國情報界頂級的分析師。 ”據官方統計，他的副主任的國家情報的分析，以及主席的國家情報委員會。 The report is already supposedly being briefed to presidential candidates McCain and Obama.該報告已經是理應被介紹到總統候選人麥凱恩和奧巴馬。

Indeed, talking to the 2008 Intelligence and National Security Alliance Analytic Transformation Conference, Fingar praised the IC for its job restoring “confidence in the product” (a not-so-subtle reference to what the Bush administration did to its reputation back in 2002-2003) and hyped the IC’s “17 years of forecasting and scenario building.” He then previewed the upcoming “product” on the futuristic intelligence block, “intended to shape the thinking of [the] new administration,” and here was his prediction of America’s fate as 2025 approaches:事實上，談論2008年情報和國家安全聯盟會議分析轉化，芬格稱讚該集成電路的工作恢復信心“產品” （一不那麼微妙的提法是布什政府並未對自己的聲譽早在2002年- 2003年）和宣傳該集成電路的“ 17歲的預報和建設的情況。 ”然後，他預覽了即將到來的“產品”的未來智能塊“ ，旨在形成的思維[的]新政府， ”這裡是他的預測美國2025年的命運辦法：

“[T]he US will remain the preeminent power, but that American dominance will be much diminished over this period of time… the overwhelming dominance that the United States has enjoyed in the international system in military, political, economic, and arguably, cultural arenas is eroding and will erode at an accelerating pace with the partial exception of military. “ [ Ť ]美國，他將仍然是傑出的權力，但美國的主導地位將大大削弱了這段時間...壓倒性優勢，美國已享有國際制度中的軍事，政治，經濟，可以說，文化舞台上正在削弱，並會削弱在加速與部分例外的軍事。 But part of the argument here is that by 15 years from now, the military dimension [that] will remain the most preeminent will be the least significant…”但是，一部分的論點是， 15年從現在開始，軍事層面[這]將仍然是最傑出的將是最重要的... “

I’d have to guess that NIC members are, at this very moment, doing a little rewriting on this issue as the known world descends around our projected ears.我不得不猜測，網卡成員，在這個非常時刻，做了一點修改關於這個問題的已知的世界降臨在我們預計的耳朵。 Anyway, just how useful was Fingar’s “news,” even before our financial system plunged into the maw?總之，只要有用的是如何芬格的“新聞” ，甚至在我們的金融體系陷入肚？

Let’s face it, if the Post headline had said: “America [or China, or a clique of petro-states] Predicted to Rule World in 2025″ that might have been news.讓我們面對現實吧，如果郵報說： “美國[或中國，或小集團的石油國家]預測規則在2025年世界” 可能已經消息。 But if you’ve been paying the slightest attention to your daily paper, Fingar’s speech offered a hint of a future hardly more illuminating than a headline saying, “Water predicted to remain in Indian Ocean in 2025.”但是，如果你已經付出絲毫注意您的每日文件，芬格的講話提供了一個暗示，未來更多的啟發幾乎比一個標題說， “水預計將繼續留在印度洋到2025年。 ”

Birthed by the T. Rex of global intelligence combines, his revelation represents, at best, a hen’s egg of knowledge. Birthed的霸王龍的全球情報結合，他的啟示是，最好的，一個雞蛋的知識。 Admittedly, such a prediction might have taken real insight back in 1997 when the US was riding high, and only a handful of declinist scholars like誠然，這種預測可能採取真正了解早在1997年，當時美國正騎著高，只有少數學者一樣declinist Immanuel Wallerstein伊曼紐爾沃勒斯坦 were是 considering the possibility考慮是否有可能 that American power was not on a path to new heights.美國沒有權力道路上達到新的高度。 But in 2008, did anyone really need costly conferences on five continents to imagine a future in which that power would be in decline, a forecast that is now a commonplace of bestselling book titles and could have been read at但是，在2008年，沒有人真的需要昂貴的會議上五大洲的想像未來，這一權力將下降的預測，現在是一個平常的暢銷書冠軍，本來可以讀取 websites like this one像這樣的網站之一 years ago?幾年前？

The Future Behind Us 今後我們背後

Still, I couldn’t resist zipping back to 1997 and then 2000 just to get a sense of what — when Washington was riding high — the IC thought lay ahead in 2010 and 2015.不過，我無法抗拒壓縮到1997年，然後2000年剛剛獲得一種什麼-當華盛頓騎高-集成電路思想擺在面前的2 0 10年和2 0 15年。

Three years after it made its 1997 findings public, the NIC’s analysts saw nothing but signs of the increasing dominance of American power in the global future.三年後，其1997年所作的調查結果公開，網絡信息中心的分析師認為只不過跡象日益主宰美國的力量在全球的未來。 Like the new administration of that moment, they were bullish on America, so much so that they even critiqued the NIC’s seers of 1997 as weak-kneed on the US: “The effect of the United States as the preponderant power is introduced in GT 2015.像新政府的這一時刻，他們被看好的美國，以至於他們甚至critiqued的NIC的預言家1997年為荏美國： “的影響，美國作為優勢力量介紹燃氣輪機2015年。 The US role as a global driver has emerged more clearly over the past four years, particularly as many countries debate the impact of ‘US hegemony’ on their domestic and foreign policies.”美國作為一個全球驅動器出現了更加明確地在過去四年裡，尤其是許多國家的辯論所產生的影響，美國的霸權，其國內和外交政策。 “

While, in 2000, there seemed no serious obstacles to the growth of American power 15 years in the future, poor Russia remained a declinist state which, fortunately, would “continue to lack the resources to impose its will,” and China faced “an array of political, social, and economic pressures that will increasingly challenge the regime’s legitimacy, and perhaps its survival.” And here was yet more splendid news from the NIC’s point of view: “The global economy, overall, will return to the high levels of growth reached in the 1960s and early 1970s.” Even better, “[i]nternational cooperation will continue to increase through 2015.” (Evidently, they forgot to brief top Bush administration officials on that particular prediction!)雖然，在2000年，人們似乎沒有任何嚴重障礙的增長美國的力量在15年的未來，可憐的俄羅斯仍然是一個declinist狀態，幸運的是，將“繼續缺乏資源來將其意志強加”和中國面臨的“一個一系列的政治，社會和經濟的壓力將越來越多的挑戰政權的合法性，也許它的生存。 “這裡又是更加輝煌的消息網卡的觀點： ”全球經濟從總體上來說，將返回高的增長水平達到20世紀60年代和70年代初。 “甚至更好” ， [一] nternational合作將繼續增加至2015年。 “ （顯然，他們忘了簡短的頂端布什政府官員對這一特定的預測！ ）

Despite some discussion of non-state actors, loose nukes, and a potential “trend toward greater lethality in terrorist attacks” — after all, two American embassies in Africa and the USS Cole had by then been devastated — the IC saw no global wars on terror ahead.儘管取得了一些討論，非國家行為者，寬鬆的核武器，以及潛在的“趨勢更加致命的恐怖襲擊” -畢竟，兩名美國使館在非洲和美國科爾號了當時被破壞-集成電路沒有看到全球的戰爭恐怖未來。 Terrorism was an outlier in a heady world of “globalization” that, in 2015, was remarkably sunny-side up when it came to us.恐怖主義是一種異常的振奮人心的世界“全球化” ，在2015年，顯著陽光，一邊當它給我們。

As with any document by committee, many of the report’s reigning predictions were carefully qualified elsewhere in the document, a familiar kind of cover-your-butt-ism in which you bravely predict the obvious — and (just in case) its opposite.正如任何文件的委員會，許多報告的衛冕預測仔細合格的其他文件中，一個熟悉的一種支付你的屁股主義在您勇敢地預測明顯-和（以防萬一）其對面。 The exuberant US economy, to take a typical example, was also described as “vulnerable to a loss of international confidence in its growth prospects that could lead to a sharp downturn, which, if long lasting, would have deleterious economic and policy consequences for the rest of the world.” There was even an appendix (”Four Alternative Global Futures”) that offered modest scenarios in which US power might “wane” somewhat, but here was the IC’s money paragraph for 2015:在旺盛的美國經濟，採取一個典型的例子，也稱為“脆弱的損失國際社會的信任在其增長前景可能導致急劇下降，如果持續很長時間，會產生有害的經濟和政策的後果世界其他地區。 “甚至還有一個附錄（ ”四種可供選擇的全球期貨“ ）提供微薄的情景，其中美國力量可能”衰退“有點，但這裡是集成電路的錢為2015年段：

“Experts agree that the United States, with its decisive edge in both information and weapons technology, will remain the dominant military power during the next 15 years. “專家認為，美國，其決定性的優勢，這兩方面的信息和武器技術，將繼續佔主導地位的軍事實力在未來的15年。 Further bolstering the strong position of the United States are its unparalleled economic power, its university system, and its investment in research and development — half of the total spent annually by the advanced industrial world.為進一步提升的堅定立場，美國是其無與倫比的經濟實力，其大學系統，其投資於研究與發展-上半年的總花費每年由世界上先進的工業。 Many potential adversaries, as reflected in doctrinal writings and statements, see US military concepts, together with technology, as giving the United States the ability to expand its lead in conventional warfighting capabilities.”許多潛在的敵人，這反映在理論的著作和報表，看到美國的軍事概念，連同技術，使美國的能力，擴大其領先的常規作戰能力。 “

Sigh… In the future that’s now behind us, we know just where that sort of thinking led.唉...在未來的日子已成過去，我們知道只是在這樣的思想主導。

By 2004, of course, things were beginning to go sour in Bushworld, and so the 2020 study had a somewhat到2004年，當然，事情也開始去酸在Bushworld ，所以2020年研究了某種 more dystopian更多dystopian edge to it.邊給它。 (It could pose the question, “US Unipolarity – How Long Can It Last?” even if the answer was: a long time.) And finally, this December, it seems, the “waning” of US power will make it, just a tad late, out of the appendices and into the bloodstream of the future. （這可能會造成問題， “美國單極-多久它最後？ ”即使答案是：很長一段時間。 ）最後，今年1 2月，似乎在“減弱” ，美國權力將使得，公正稍晚些時候，在附錄和進入血液的未來。

Handmaidens of Delusion Handmaidens的妄想

What’s undeniably fascinating about these futuristic exercises is the degree to which they reflect the limits of the world of the present as seen from Washington; they reflect, that is, just what Washington has been (and largely still remains) incapable of grasping about the nature of power — and danger — on this planet.什麼是不可否認的迷人對這些未來的演習是在何種程度上反映了他們的極限的世界本是從華盛頓，他們反映，也就是說，正是華盛頓一直（基本上仍）無法把握的性質的權力-和危險-這個星球上。 In this way, the IC’s analysts remained handmaidens to delusion, not just when it came to foreign powers, but when it came to our own country.通過這種方式，在IC的分析師仍handmaidens以妄想，不僅時候，外國列強，但是當它來到我們自己的國家。 The Global Trends reports will remain significant documents for future historians who want to chart just how glacially slow was Washington’s realization that the collapse of Soviet power didn’t actually mean American power was destined to be transcendent on Earth.全球發展趨勢的報告將繼續重要文件為未來的歷史學家誰想要圖表如何glacially緩慢是華盛頓認識到崩潰的蘇維埃政權實際上並不意味著美國的力量注定是至高無上的地球上。

In its predictions, it’s clear that the IC had little better luck getting its agents embedded in the future than it did getting them inside al-Qaeda or into Iran.在其預測，這清楚地表明，集成電路幾乎沒有得到更好的運氣嵌入式其代理人在未來比讓他們在基地組織或進入伊朗。 Not surprisingly, given what we know about the bureaucratic morass that is American intelligence, the GT reports have all the faults of intelligence by committee and negotiation — which is why HG Wells, Arthur Clark, Isaac Asimov, George Orwell, and others, who caught something of the strangeness of possible futures, would never have had a chance in hell of succeeding in careers in the IC.這並不奇怪，因為我們所知道的官僚泥沼這是美國情報機構的報告燃氣輪機的所有故障的情報委員會和談判-這就是為什麼韋爾斯，阿瑟克拉克，艾薩克阿西莫夫，喬治奧威爾，和其他人，誰捕獲一些陌生的期貨的可能，永遠不會有機會在地獄中獲得成功的職業生涯中的集成電路。 Wells’s Martians with their poison gas and flying machines, Orwell’s Big Brother with his “memory hole,” and Huxley’s “feelies” would have been left on the negotiating room floor.威爾斯的火星與毒氣和飛行機器，奧威爾的大哥與他的“記憶洞”和赫胥黎的“ feelies ”將一直留在房間地板談判。 Far too quirky.太多的離奇。 Far too many “discontinuities” involved for the IC.太多的“不連續性”涉及的集成電路。

Better to forecast what the people you brief already believe, raised to the highest predictive power and squared, and skip the oddballs with their strange hunches, the sorts who might actually have a knack for recognizing the shock of the future lurking in the present.更好地預測哪些人介紹一下已經認為，提高到最高的預測能力和平方，並跳過oddballs他們奇怪的預感，誰的種類實際上可能有一個訣竅承認休克未來的潛伏在本。 Don’t pay any mind不要支付任何銘記 , for that matter, to FBI agents reporting the truly strange in the present — like, say, “a 33-year-old French citizen of Moroccan descent” at a flight school who wants to learn how to fly a commercial jet, but就此而言，向聯邦調查局報告的真正奇怪的本-想，說， “一名3 3歲的法國公民的摩洛哥後裔”在飛行學校誰想要學習如何飛行的商業飛機，但 not how不是如何 it takes off or lands.它起飛或土地。

What the Global Trends documents represent, then, is not a deep dive into the mysteries of the future, but a series of belly flops by an unbearably obese IC into a barely grasped present.何謂全球發展趨勢的文件代表，那麼，是不是深潛到神秘的未來，但一系列的肚子拖鞋了令人不能忍受肥胖集成電路到目前幾乎沒有抓住。 Let 18 intelligence outfits proliferate and one thing is guaranteed: in some future, maybe even tomorrow, no matter how powerful you are, you won’t know what hit you.讓18個情報裝備增殖和有一件事是保證：在今後的一些，甚至明天，無論多麼強大你，你將不知道怎麼打你。

If I were the next president, I might prefer to skip the IC, spend a few nights with a little science fiction, peer into the darkness, muster some commonsense, and take a wild guess or two.如果我是下屆總統，我可能更願意跳過集成電路，花了幾個晚上的小科幻小說，同行的黑暗，拿出一些常識，並採取野生猜測或兩個。

Tom Engelhardt, co-founder of 湯姆恩格爾哈特，共同創辦人 the American Empire Project 美利堅帝國項目 , runs the Nation Institute’s TomDispatch.com. 運行民族研究所的TomDispatch.com 。 He is the author of 他是作者 The End of Victory Culture 最終的勝利文化 , a history of the American Age of Denial. 一個歷史時代的美國拒絕。 The World According to TomDispatch: America in the New Age of Empire 世界據TomDispatch ：美國新帝國時代 (Verso, 2008), a collection of some of the best pieces from his site, has recently been published. （科羅維， 2008年） ，收集一些最優秀的作品從他的網站，最近已出版。 Focusing on what the mainstream media hasn’t covered, it is an alternative history of the mad Bush years. 側重於主流媒體還沒有涉及，這是另一種歷史的瘋狂布什歲。

[ Note on Readings : The Global Trends reports are all on line. [注上讀 ：全球發展趨勢報告都行。 You can read them by clicking here: Global Trends您可以閱讀他們的點擊這裡：全球趨勢 2010 2010年 , Global Trends全球發展趨勢 2015 2015年 , Global Trends全球發展趨勢 2020 2020年 . 。 You can read both of Thomas Fingar's recent speeches by clicking您可以閱讀這兩個托馬斯芬格最近的講話點擊 here這裡 (pdf file -- and fair warning, despite his billing as the "top analyst" in the US Intelligence Community, they are almost unbearably banal, soporific, and remarkably incoherent). （ pdf檔案-和公平的警告，儘管他的帳單為“頂端分析師”在美國情報界，他們幾乎是不可忍受平庸，催眠，並顯著不一致） 。 Finally, I wrote about Global Trends 2020 when it came out in 2004.最後，我寫的關於到2020年全球發展趨勢時，它在2004年。 For any of you who might find that of interest, click對於任何你可能會發現誰的利益，請點擊 here這裡 .] 。 ]

Copyright 2008 Tom Engelhardt版權所有2008年湯姆恩格爾哈特

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